Very random thoughts on the draft FWIW:
1. I like the emphasis on young pitching. I see it as a numbers game. In the international market, for what it’s worth, most of our top signees have tended to be position players and this is a good way to balance it with young pitchers.
2. With Letson, Knoth and others last year, we just added a bunch of more young pitchers. Let’s hope we sign most. The numbers game may allow for us to have a few bubble up and become major leaguers.
3. I trust Tod incredibly. As everyone knows, he’s an analytics guy who literally came from the tech world. His 2023 draft was masterfully handled with the way he maneuvered the money to get lots of high upside guys. How many actually make it remains to be seen but you’ve got to love at least a half dozen guys coming out of the draft.
4. Regarding Payne, I see it as coming down to his hit tool. As a high schooler, we will have to wait and see. Admittedly, I put zero research on him before the draft like I did with other guys, but I’m in a trust Tod mode.
5. I happened to see Corey Ray play at Louisville and I don’t see the comp to Payne. Ray obviously had a poor hit tool and wasn’t even a true center fielder. He was the one guy in the top ten I really didn’t want. That draft ended up being a colossal failure overall but we never gave ourselves a chance. After having a really bad year on the field, you’d like to reward yourselves with a promising draft pick and the organization didn’t do that. With Payne, our analysis is better now. If his hit tool comes around, maybe he’s a Vince Coleman leadoff guy who wreaks havoc. If not, there’s at least a thoughtful process at work.
6. This isn’t like prior drafting regimes. The late Bruce Seid and Ray weren’t at Tod’s level as scouting directors. Doug did some good things but he’d come to the media and talk all about our “projectable” tall starting pitcher draftees. Jungmann, Bradley, Eric Arnett. Beyond them, how about Coulter and Kodi. Lot of first round picks squandered with an overly simplistic methodology. The way our analytic leadership handles it now, they are looking at data such as spin rates, movements along planes etc. That gives me more confidence.
7. It’s not like the draft in football. The pick number is really about the money attached to the slot. You have to look at the draft holistically and see how the whole class looks. The Brewers famously played the numbers game last year. It might not be the case every year, right. If you love your organizational depth you may not be worried. But right now they are obviously adding numbers on younger pitching.
8. The evaluation process is more complicated in baseball. The difference between college or high school versus the majors might as well be different sports. If you can hit pitching at a lower level, it is hard to project because you’re looking at far different pitching. Lots of guys can mash up to even AAA and that’s it.
9. I liked the Burke pick. I didn’t get the negativity. Good power, good leader and he’s not a strikeout machine. I’d say he’s got a chance and I’m happy we went after that profile. If anything, I don’t think we’ve done it enough. Coming into the draft his comp reminded me a bit of AJ Reed who came to the Astros also out of the SEC, from Kentucky. He faltered at the major league level so hopefully Burke fares better.