Austin Tatious

I have defended a lot of the recent moves but this one is a head scratcher. Bauers has a profile to avoid not acquire.

Maybe but IMO you should QC what the rival authors post for credibility. Love the site, the moderation, and love contributing but let’s be honest there are some absurd articles on the front page by Cub fans with no self awareness. It’s too common. That’s just the honest truth.

You’d have to pay him considerably more than that because of his position, defense, and power relative to his position. He’s not getting paid based on where he is in the batting order and rightfully so.

Has anyone seen any names (and rankings) that the Brewers are linked to for the January 2024 signings? I found some lists of players but no mention of teams the players are associated with like we used to see.

Good looking swing. You can see he can generate pop.

I put him at 19 but not at the expense of Baez who is at 20 (I have him higher). I disagree with the consensus quite a bit.

The missing alot in the strike zone is cringy as it’s shades of Hiura. Hiura favoring that exaggerated upper cut to get the ball in the air while compromising contact wrecked his chances. Hopefully Dunn can overcome that because it’s a major flaw. Regarding defense, the scouts who like to put immobile guys at second are shortsighted IMO. Second base requires range. You want a guy who can get to balls. Look at Turang who played a brilliant second. He was rangy as heck. Despite all this, I’m intrigued by Dunn. The Brewers quite obviously see him as a late bloomer with a good skill set and analytics that they can work with. He may not be a plus defender at second but hopefully he’s adequate. He discovered some uncommon pop which is a huge plus for a second baseman and they probably think they can fix his missing in the strike zone.

I have relatives in DC. Their fan base detests Dominic. He was a punch line in the beltway.

Personally I wish we would find a way to extend Adames. Doesn’t look like we will with Burnes/Boras and Woody took himself out of that conversation with his injury. With all the young players coming up, you can control a big chunk of production on the roster at low expense. As much as Adames’ hit tool can be aggravating, bat him 6th until he proves otherwise. He brings intangibles like leadership and clubhouse presence (positive, competitive attitude). We may be small market but we are still a MLB team that will need to pay core players. Now if we can get an overpay on a trade from someone, that’s different as is if he’s not willing to sign unless it’s absurd money for a .215 hitter.

Very happy with the Murphy hire. I am not buying all the angst and arguments that it’s boring. He’s reputed to have a strong presence as a leader and has player support and respect. He has a long track record of developing talent and that’s precisely what we need. We have a long list of young players who need development and he was as good as anyone on the list in that respect. I also like the continuity aspect. He knows our pipeline well and with where we are in our cycle of promoting young talent, I think we 100% made the right choice. Do I think we take a step back next year? Yes I do and I’m ok with it although I hope we stay competitive. We’ve proven that we have the best organization in the division and keeping Murphy in place allows us to continue that. You take a step back and then potentially two steps forward in a year or two if we get more young pitching. I suspect much of the top of our next draft or two will be college pitchers with high spin rates. I also find any criticism of his age to be laughable. As long as his health is fine, and every single human on earth has that issue, there’s no reason why he couldn’t comfortably manage for five years if desired. Regarding Weeks, Drew Olsen has some great thoughts. He said Weeks is all about winning and is as competitive of an athlete as he ever covered. He was also a strong and key leader when he was a player. Olsen told a story that Braunie was in the dugout complaining about the shadows with the roof open and Weeks stood up and laid into him that they had to deal with it. The other players thought effectively Weeks just chewed out our biggest star and it was effective and obviously made an impression. I am much happier with Murphy than I would have been a retread like Mattingly or an outside guy who is unproven and could exacerbate brain drain in a very well run organization. Let’s keep it going. Let’s not pretend that Craig didn’t rely heavily on Murphy. They were joined at the hip. These are all pluses IMO. Maybe if we were in a different circumstance or stage in our roster cycle a guy like Gabe Kapler would have fit. But for where we are today, I think Murphy was the right hire.

I’m not going to pretend that I’d ever focused on Dunn before today but I love the move from a risk/reward standpoint. No guarantees here but I love that our analysts liked enough to focus on him. This is the type of move that we can make and get excess value from. Moore and Mendez may make it but I always thought they were overrated and I like Dunn’s potential more. I have always been quality over quantity and I really like the move.

Regarding Mark, we can blame him if you wish but we’ve been run really well for a number of years. We used to overpay for the Braden Loopers and Jeff Suppans. I don’t think that’s the answer. If we overpay we end up in quicksand for mediocrities. It’s not so much being cheap as it is keeping flexibility and not spending on talent that’s not really worth it. Keep your powder dry and deploy resources without crippling you in a way that removes all flexibility. It has worked and I’m fine with passing the likes of Suppan, Looper and Lohse. Look for market inefficiencies (e.g., juco arms) and more reliable bets. In the 1990s we drafted high on super high risk arms and overspent on mediocre free agents. Result was prolonged losing with no hope. We have lost Stearns and Counsell. To me, what we need to be sure about now is retaining our remaining organizational intelligence. Look at our drafts before and after Tod Johnson’s arrival in 2017. For those who would always defend the prior drafting regimes because of crapshoot type arguments, we now have an HP former executive who has a highly competent process and the results have been outstanding undercutting the prior defenses. Similarly, look at the approach with Latin America. We have a top farm system now with a steady stream of talent on the cusp. Look at player development with things like the pitching lab and the developing of catchers with Charlie Greene’s group. Yes, we lost Stearns and CC. We can take both of their tenures and pick apart a ledger of good moves and bad moves. But IMO that’s beside the point. We’ve had an infrastructure and organizational mindset that has been the real secret sauce. Now, if we start having a brain drain in our drafting department, Latin American scouting regime and player development, then I will get really concerned. That will be tough to replicate. Mark has the opportunity to keep all of that intact. I think he’s smart enough to realize that.

General thoughts. CC probably envisioned moving a year ago. You could read between the lines and body language providing zero encouragement about being in Milwaukee. The Chicago part shocked me and at my age it is hard to shock me with anything. They didn’t even have an opening. While they are trying to whitewash it, it’s unprofessional. The Chicago media is saying that Ross was totally blindsided. Their organization is not my problem or concern so let them function with their own conscience and ramifications of others in the industry who might not want to go there in the future because it shows how they will be treated. CC has about the same sincerity as Reggie White did when he said God guided him to Green Bay. They are lining their pockets in those situations.

Villanueva would be interesting while keeping Pat Murphy as a mentor of sorts.

I’m intrigued by Clayton McCullough, the Dodgers first base coach. From what I’ve googled, he was a candidate in Cleveland and they did like him. Apparently the Dodgers rave about him. But I agree with @Lathund, we, as fans, don’t have access to enough information to have more than a hunch on who would be good.

I would definitely be interested in Lux but as part of a package with young pitching with upside (high spin rates). I have touted our system as long as anyone before I felt it was recognized properly. And as much as I like the likes of Mis, Gasser and Rodriguez, I’d like to see more high upside arm talent added to the system. We are deeper in position talent. I expect us to focus on pitching harder in the next draft and hopefully in LA (although we’ve been stronger with position players there, e.g., Chourio, Quero, Baez, Lara et al.). Either way the talent influx has been great. Mitchell, Frelick, Uribe and Turang already. Now layer that with Black, Chourio and Gasser next year. Mis, Rodriguez and Wilken by 2025. We will see about others like Eric Brown and Wiemer and how they fit in. Either way, that’s very good influx of talent, energy, fresh legs, and upside. It will need to coalesce and get acclimated but it sure beats the alternative. With the next acquisitions, would love to see more emphasis on high spin rate electric arms that can start to balance out the influx of talent. Hard not to be optimistic. Stay good and retool without collapsing.

Wiemer to me could use a full year at AAA to work on his plate discipline. Right now he makes Carlos Gomez look disciplined by comparison. A taste of MLB might have been good for him but IMO circumstances caused a premature MLB season. If he can figure out a more stable approach at the plate he can be a player of consequence both offensively and defensively. Very good potential in terms of power, speed and D. But it has to still materialize.

Hoskins seems to really match up with team needs and budget if you can get him for the right number of years. But the Brewers tend not to bite on some of my targets so take my view with a grain of salt.

I like Miley a lot but the question is whether the money will be right considering he’s a pretty big risk. Brewers want to be shrewd with resource allocation and risking substantial cash on an aging guy may not be their move.

Combination of a player who is expected to regress to his norm and not risking capital on a 35 year old. As well as he played last year, that’s not how this group is going to allocate resources lest they get in a bind financially. Hopefully they move on from Winker and Tellez. No brainer to do so.

Brown has been really good since May, which has been great to see. Hopefully he builds on it next year and rises through the system.

Very good article, Tim. I think CC has been phenomenal and I’d hate to lose him. But you raise some good points and your precise examples and comparisons to Bochy are very apt.

The Brewers making a deal with Baltimore would probably be the least surprising scenario. Baltimore has surplus young talent and can’t forge a pathway for them all. They have been under pressure to make a deal for veteran pitching for awhile. But it’s not a lock. First, we don’t know if they’d deal Burnsie with Woody hurt. Second, you’d like good young pitching talent coming back and the O’s are light there. The Brewers can drive a hard bargain considering they have no need to do the swap and Baltimore doesn’t have precisely what they want. All in all, I think Baltimore will be motivated to potentially overpay with what they do have. They’ve been under the microscope for not having already done it.

I’m a huge Woody fan as we all are. I have all the empathy for him both with his career but also financially. But I can’t see giving him anything beyond prove it money in ‘25. Coming off a missed year and major surgery, he’s not looking at market value in ‘25. It’s sad to say but with age creeping up and a major injury he’s losing the biggest leverage he had to get a huge payday. I’d be generous but far under market price for a pitcher of his stature. I’d then want a third year option. We don’t know the back room conversations but I’d say there is almost no chance there wasn’t the topic of an extension broached along the way. Peralta and Ashby took it. Woody and Burnes didn’t. You can bet on yourself as a player but you’re taking a massive risk too by eschewing guaranteed money over the life of an extension. Very unfortunate but I would be harping on this big time in the future with other young players if I’m the Brewer FO. It burned Woody. I feel for him but he did it eyes wide open.

@Smichaelis9these write ups are great as usual. The best part is the deep dive in explaining their data and adjustments they are making. I follow the stats all season but you charting out their trends, e.g, Brown getting above an OPS of .780 after a tough start, is very helpful.