brewcrewdue80

Wouldn't it be more of players that are top 10 and their adjusted ERA the next 5 seasons to see the decline? Seeing Jered Weaver in the first list and his drop to today is alarming. Price, Dickey and Zimmerman. Passing on the hard hit contact or HR rate, remember Archer throws 2 pitches 92% of the time. Hitters adjust his stats in on time through an order OPS In reverse order of years: 17/16/15/14 1:682/736/534/525 2:594/640/614/801 3:852/714/661/613 4:1.228/1.119/1.265/901 Or based on Pitches: 1-25:750/852/595/545 26-50:603/618/574/649 50-75:502/673/610/735 76-100:947/689/690 100+:894/908/556/514 Pct on FB/Slider/CH in 14/15/16/17 order 65.9 28.9 5.2 54.1 39.2 6.7 48.5 40.2 11.3 47.6 44.4 8.0 by the numbers, he should abandon his sliders so much and return to more FBs. It is concerning when your TOR option is just a 75 pitch Starting pitcher. And clearly he shouldn't see any past 99pitches. You could wonder that his Slider being rated so high has impacted the extra Ks in his game, so he feels he should throw it more to K over throwing his FB. Catcher shows a 1, he shakes it off and then throws his Slider. Something on FG vs BRef WAR ratings. FGs doesn't have a Whip statistic vs BRef. Archer is around 1.25 the last two years and 1.14 in '15 when BRef gave him a 4.3 vs the under 2 BWar the last 2 seasons. I dunno, may be something or just FGs goes on Fip which Whip should affect. Who knows, maybe my behind the numbers is what Stearns and co. have done as well where they see a FB thrown more often makes him more effective and they plan to make that adjustment.

It's a similar problem that I mentioned with Santana or signing Walker now. Where are you batting him? Cain, Yelich, Santana(if not traded), Shaw, Braun, Thames/Realmuto, Realmuto/Aguilar, Arcia. You ruin what advantage he brings as a Catcher offensively by batting him in a spot in the order where he's what? 90 PAs less if in the top 4 in order? I'd take Lucroy at that spot over Realmuto because if he's the Lucroy post-Brewers, you're batting him low enough in the order. If he becomes the Brewer Lucroy again, that signing will be really good with the unexpected results. But really, Pina/Vogt is a cheap perfect small market Catcher duo at this moment for a team adding so much salary. Realmuto is a Super 2 player that will continually get expensive, unlike the Lucroy contract, and no being a Super 2 makes no sense on his part to take a team friendly buyout/extension. In 2 years with good production he'll be over 10mil in salary. And if he's not, You really made a mistake trading away the cost in prospects to acquire him.

More like 1 year 2.5mil like Gallardo.

Well add 40, 30, and 20 to that spot about where you're uncomfortable before you get uncomfortable. I think that would be starting points when under-signing to another year before their agents ask for 10mil or more...more.

The improved Milwaukee team will be drafting in the mid 20s every round if this team is serious on it's talent acquisitions. Remember that when you're saying the draft can continue replenishing our system. Gone are the days of 4mil+ on the first pick and welcome in 2.5mil for it moving forward the 2nd round 1.5mil turns to 1.1mil. The comp pick at least after this season is after the 1st round ~2mil vs. ~800k

But, if we dont win the WS the Archer trade is a complete flop. 4+ years a complete flop. The team is set up to win a division now or later being beyond 2022. I worry this wont work out (especially if Arrieta is signed) and our prospect sytem cant return us in 2022 to a division winning level, much less WS contending. Yelich was a good deal due to production and age entering prime. Archer's production/age is up in questions to carrying the torch to put Milw over the top. Waiting a year could put guys like Manaea or Fulmer to light as TOR types, if you needed that in trades with Woodruff/Burnes 1year more developed. Stroman was thrown out there, 1 of the many Braves SPs. Yelich is 100pct a sure thing for what we gave up. If we won a WS, I will say I was completely wrong. Losing the WS, Im justified to this view. Losing 2 World Series Ill say Im wrong. Acquiring Archer with Santana/Ortiz/ 1 of Erceg/Lutz/Dubon and 1 Pitching prospect below Peralta whomever. I change my attitude. But the other package? See ya TB as we lose to you in the WS in 2022 is my expectation Totally disagree. The package for Archer would probably be about the same as the package for Yelich. Cannot agree at all with the claim that if the Brewers don't win a World Series with Archer then the trade was a flop. Don't understand how the entire team's performance falls on Archer's shoulders if the Brewers give up 110 million in prospect surplus value for him, but it doesn't really matter how the team does with Yelich after the Brewers gave up 110 million dollars in prospect surplus value to acquire him. Its in my post on Yelich being a sure thing 100pct what we gave up. He'll be 4WAR this year if he's playing more that 140games. And continue that for another 3years likely more. Archer is hit or miss. The trade for him costs us the majority impact Prospect depth. He's 29 turning 30 or leaving his prime every year of control. Moving to MP with the hard contact/HR could turn him in to mid-rotation results for his duration. Meanwhile Burnes could produce just midrotation results beginning next year...nevermind what Santana/others produce. Yelich >Brinson+involved 5 years. Archer doesnt beat that proposal at any time w/o a Kershaw type season 1 year. My point is, Yelich wont be the reason Milw doesnt make/win a WS. He wont under perform expectations. Archer isnt that lock, so he should take the blame.

Well Houston did win the WS, Cubs year before. 7 of the 29picks. The Fact KC won a WS with their draft results, Grienke trade much? They should have these 6 year lists and the bottom team should be forced to fire any and all that are intimately involved with that horrible result and Banned.

But, if we dont win the WS the Archer trade is a complete flop. 4+ years a complete flop. The team is set up to win a division now or later being beyond 2022. I worry this wont work out (especially if Arrieta is signed) and our prospect sytem cant return us in 2022 to a division winning level, much less WS contending. Yelich was a good deal due to production and age entering prime. Archer's production/age is up in questions to carrying the torch to put Milw over the top. Waiting a year could put guys like Manaea or Fulmer to light as TOR types, if you needed that in trades with Woodruff/Burnes 1year more developed. Stroman was thrown out there, 1 of the many Braves SPs. Yelich is 100pct a sure thing for what we gave up. If we won a WS, I will say I was completely wrong. Losing the WS, Im justified to this view. Losing 2 World Series Ill say Im wrong. Acquiring Archer with Santana/Ortiz/ 1 of Erceg/Lutz/Dubon and 1 Pitching prospect below Peralta whomever. I change my attitude. But the other package? See ya TB as we lose to you in the WS in 2022 is my expectation

I mentioned a couple days or 3 back that Bauer may be the trade holding up since he's in arb hearing and his future payroll obligation would change if he won vs lost. A win of 1mil being 2.2mil more next year and 4.4 mil more the following vs if he lost. And the prospect cost depending on such.

The goal is to win in 2018 and 2019. The Brewers FO isn't willing to let the young guys develop over time or they don't think they ever will. Yelich, Cain, and the suggested Archer trade are all over paying but only if you look at the long term. This is a two year play. No, Yelich and Cain can produce win for the team '19-22 years. You're dealing with teams at their apex or crowning in '18 in Washington, Cubs, Dodgers, Indians, and Astros while you're #1 SP of '17 is recovering and an unknown for '18. To make this work you are taking the #1 hitter from '17 and trading him for less than full value because you're crunched in the OF with Braun's contract still 3 years remaining on it and no place now to fit everyday w/o becoming a bigger defensive liability. You're top 2 graduated prospects of '17 gained experienced, but aren't living their full potential yet. You're considering a move from essentially all of your highest regarded prospects in AA or higher(the depth a small market needs) and expecting what? A fully productive roster w/o injuries in any pitching moving forward to compete with teams who are 100 win expectation/playoff experience/WS champ experience in '18 and '19? Yeah our system is deep but you are taking the AAA/AA/A/Rookie depth and turning in to higher bust potential AA/A/Rookie depth. Hiura being the lone exception....maybe. You don't have to make these moves to win in '18/'19 when if you avoid your Archer trade and sign Darvish or Cobb you are making your talented lineup with AAA/AA quality depth in win modes for '19-22 and beyond with the depth you maintain. Washington loses Harper, Dodgers could lose Kershaw, Houston loses Keuchel, Cleveland loses Allen and Miller. The Cubs roster gets older and more expensive. In '19 we'd have a true idea on Nelson, Woodruff, Anderson, Villar, Pina/Vogt, Braun at 1b?/1b overall? And where Burnes, Peralta, Dubon, and Hiura sit. Taylor Williams production from Bullpen. These are question marks to the '18 season. Trade for Archer and his HR/hard contact rate worsens in Miller Park, (oh look Mike Fiers with 30+HRs 5.22 ERA production! Yay) Sure, Fiers won a Ring and got serious time in Houston, but Archer is supposed to be our Keuchel. Yet I wouldn't be surprised he posted closer to 5ERA than he does 3 ERA with his HR/hard contact problem. It's not only Archer I hate ideally, but Nelson/Anderson production concerns me. Anderson took an extension contract, he's paid set for Life. He was but a #4 type prior to last season's amazing #1.5? stats? He may regress more to a 4ERA pitcher than a sub 3.5 ERA pitcher type of expected regression. That's not looking good for a run in '18. Nelson returns and can't find his velocity or production levels of '18. Dang, I've just taken 3 of our top 5 SPs for a WS '18 team and made them 3 of our #4s. Davies and Woodruff for the win! It's 1 year too soon with 1years advancement too soon. Freddy Peralta has as good an '18 as '17 with Colorado Springs starts and Burnes graduates to the ML team in September, At that stage you've given your SP 3 homegrowns with a 4th knocking at the door(like Brinson) and can part with in a trade. I guess in reality, it's we have no depth at all Stearns has decided and our window taking what depth we have can be now for 4 years before going in to full tank in '22 for a long while. Now these moves make sense. Thinking any bit of good will come from Ray/Grisham or Lutz is false. Medeiros/Ponce/Erceg/Gatewood. all are AAAA futures. The time must be now.

It's arbitration. If it get's expensive to a team it would mean Santana is performing very well which would be a Greater value return than Archer's by him alone. If he's not performing like '17 or better, then he's not going to get so expensive that causes a team turmoil with their payroll.

Santana=Moncada with the bat(bat) is what that was saying. Tampa doesn't need an OF and considering Santana's value it comes as a DH Bat who can OF when it's needed. Comparing Kopech to Burnes is the fact that Kopech was a lower 100 prospect with rising value as that trade was being made. He most definitely wasn't a top 10 prospect at the time of that trade! Burnes is in the top 75 and one ranker Keith Law ranked him 24th. Someone that clearly sees the ceiling on Burnes being higher like myself than the Wily Peralta/Jorge Lopez down trodden posters here that see him as just a #3 if that, you know because Jorge Lopez was where Burnes is after 1 big year and now he's AAA material. Phillips has already earned more WAR than a typical 3rd piece does in a trade. More than the SALE trade's 3rd piece and Peralta clearly will produce even more WAR than Phillips has to this point. These are all AA or higher in this trade suggestion and potential is there all of them will see games at the ML level. Yeah I'm puking at this supposed proposal. In 5 years I'd imagine it was Archer with 11WAR total oh FG WAR it can be 22 value made and our 4 with 30 total WAR and then FG WAR moves to 42.

Archer>Sale is the Rays ask. Santana=Moncada(bat) Kopech at the time=Burnes. Including Phillips/Peralta are far greater than rest of Sale deal. May as well send this offer to Boston for Sale. Poster above listed a comparison of Burnes to Davies, that Burnes will be a 3/4 that could play up to 2 like Davies is a 4 playing up to a 3/2. Okay let's put that comparison for Burnes due to Plus Control but add, Burnes throws 6. 6MPH faster than Davies. This isnt a 4 pushing to 2. Hes a 3 pushing to 1. Chase Anderson did it and hes not the auality Burnes has advanced to. The thought process also on it being 3-4 years for him to reach that. No. Burnes has Control, when you have that you dont take 3years to produce, look at Davies our comparison. If Burnes isnt a slow starter as davies is thats immediate 3.5ERA and better.(with better velocity so higher ceiling) All it took for Anderson was going from 91-92 to 94 and that velocity made his pitches better enough to post his season last year. Compare Davies and give Davies 6 more MPH to his FB, how well you think he's doing? Now youre taking Santana and That future in Burnes, adding God forbid Hiura, but Phillips? Who's legit on defense and lefty(so right side of a platoon) He's likely better than Spans numbers moving forward. And our throw in Peralta. I mean this is a throw in? Its yet tbd on his SP potential but clearly you're looking at powerhouse Closer RP ceiling or set-up as fall back. 4 legit MLB contributors. This trade idea is more lopsided than Thornburgs deal.

Posted this elsewhere but Darvish has under 3ERA in 63% of his games in wins/no decisions. A 2.35 ERA and 6.12ERA in the losses only 37% of starts. Arrieta has a 1.6ERA in 46% of his starts of Wins only. 24.6% of his starts of no decisions is a 4.04 ERA. Losses at 7.17. Taking the majority of Arrieta's starts his no-decision/losses 54% of the time he's a 5.36 ERA pitcher. Yeah Darvish is a far better pitcher. You just can't take his no-decision/losses and discount the wins and say he is this 54% of the time. Your analysis is off base and you have no context to prove that either Arrieta or Darvish are the players you are claiming they are by taking their no decisions and their losses. Context matters here are you taking into account Arrieta's earlier years where he wasn't as good with the Orioles? How many years are you looking at here? If you are just looking at a couple of years this is basically useless information which even if you take the players whole career this is useless information. I will return to write more, but this is a Career post of stats. A career post of stats where taking the no decisions & Lost games in Arrieta games (54% of his Career games) results to a 5+ ERA. These are stats where most likely the outcome will be a loss. 46% of his starts are great being wins. But if you take that to 5 seasons at 30 starts a year he's statistically giving you 69 winnable games and 81 likely no-dec/losses. Darvish at 63% winnable games in 5 seasons at 30Starts each is 95 most likely wins to 55 likely no-dec/losses. Huh? What? Look a big divide in games is the 3runs scored vs 4 runs scored. Well theres your <3 to >4 Games started percentage by the two. Arrieta is either very good or a #4/5 starter. Darvish mixes far more ace games than a #5. This is career numbers. And Arrietas are on a decline the last two seasons already being worse.

Posted this elsewhere but Darvish has under 3ERA in 63% of his games in wins/no decisions. A 2.35 ERA and 6.12ERA in the losses only 37% of starts. Arrieta has a 1.6ERA in 46% of his starts of Wins only. 24.6% of his starts of no decisions is a 4.04 ERA. Losses at 7.17. Taking the majority of Arrieta's starts his no-decision/losses 54% of the time he's a 5.36 ERA pitcher. Yeah Darvish is a far better pitcher. I have no idea what I just read but I'm pretty sure it's hilarious. Sorry it clearly goes over your head.

1 Rosenthal listed him as Ace. 2. I believe in earlier posts you labeled him a 3 w/o the 2. 3. 50 grades are avg. 55 are above Fastball, Slider and now Curveball rated55. 4. Variety and control of variety can be Burnes' out pitch. Sorta like Davies getting hitters out, only Burnes has better grades behind his Fastball, Slider.

Posted this elsewhere but Darvish has under 3ERA in 63% of his games in wins/no decisions. A 2.35 ERA and 6.12ERA in the losses only 37% of starts. Arrieta has a 1.6ERA in 46% of his starts of Wins only. 24.6% of his starts of no decisions is a 4.04 ERA. Losses at 7.17. Taking the majority of Arrieta's starts his no-decision/losses 54% of the time he's a 5.36 ERA pitcher. Yeah Darvish is a far better pitcher.

If the team signs Arietta or Cobb, they surrender their 4th rounder ... the round Burnes was drafted in two years ago. That's on top of the $100+ million contract. So free agency is not the be all/end all either. I think they will probably sign a free agent (losing that pick) and make a trade (losing a haul of prospects), and posters here will be upset about both. But it will position this team to be a contender for the next 4 years, which is why you have a farm system. Exactly. The sole purpose of a farm system isn't just to develop talent. You also use that talent to add proven MLB talent. Stearns has given us no reason to think he doesn't know what he's doing in the trade market. If he feels comfortable with a deal, we should as well. Again, people forget Burnes was an advanced college arm. His success vs minor league bats isn't surprising. However, his HR/FB rate isn't sustainable either. If we deal him, it's capitalizing on his likely elevated value. He's not a TOR arm. Never was. And he has improved his Stuff from that day including a harder FB and movement on both FB and Slider. MLB's notes in 2017 and 2018 '17 Burnes' lightning-quick arm produces a 92-95 mph fastball that he uses to attack hitters on both sides of the plate. His secondary stuff isn't quite as good, but his hard slider can be an out pitch at times, and he'll mix in an average curve and a changeup for which he has decent feel. FB, SL-55 Curve-50 Change-45 Control-55 Overall-55 Scouts rave about Burnes' lightning-quick arm, as it produces a 92-95 mph fastball that has natural cutting action out of his hand. He pounds the strike zone with the pitch, using it to attack hitters on both sides of the plate, and maintains velocity deep into starts. Burnes' above-average curveball, thrown with a high spin rate and late, downer action, is his best secondary offering, and he also shows advanced feel for a mid-80s slider. An effective changeup that has splitter-like action in the mid- to upper-80s rounds out Burnes' four-pitch mix, all of which play up due to his above-average control. 55 FB, SL, CB, 50 Change and 60 CONTROL 55 Overall This reads as more than a #3. Secondary pitch went from Slider to Curveball but both above average and a Changeup now at average with Plus Control. That is a 4 pitch mix with 3 above average in the mix. Archer did not receive such praise and actually regressed from #38 to 81 prior to entering MLB full-time. a 2 pitch mix with a lagging Changeup. Nothing has changed, 2 pitch mix. lagging Change up. Only his control improved. But hey, Burnes is just a maybe #3 while Archer is an Ace.

Send me to the Nut House. Baseball Reference puts Archer's WAR at 1.8 for 2016, and 1.2 for 2017. If that's an ace, what does that make Zach Davies, who's WAR the past two years per B-R is 5.2 and that number doesn't even include his +0.4 WAR he got as a hitter in 2017 thanks in large part to his league leading 14 sacrifice bunts? Don't think his ability to get bunts down have something to do with Davies having a splendid .633 winning percentage? Think again. That's winning baseball and part of the reason Davies is so underappreciated. Posted that multiple times now. One site values Archer's Ks more than BRef does which appears ERA influenced. I would also think Fangraphs rates IP highly, like you reach 200 IP or 200Ks you get 1WAR regardless of the stats you're putting up. You could also argue that maybe some of FGs numbers are Fantasy ranked take the Ks add the xFip rankings ignore ERA/Fip rankings. Fangraphs shows Archer as a 2 pitch pony with a near even 47/44 FB/Sl 8 pct Changeup as a 3rd pitch. Fastball shows as barely below average. Slider well above average. Change up as below average. So I'd guess batters sit on his FB and crank it. He is a guy that is barely below a 6IP per start average, which is not TOR quality. September stats this year were 6 starts- 21.2IP 31hits 21Runs 18ER 5HRs 8BBs 24Ks 7.5ERA That certainly spells TOR come Playoff time. He was better in '16 5 starts 32.1IP 29hits 13 runs 13ER 6HRs 7BBs 31Ks 3.62 ERA Better, but like his Career ERA 3.62 is not a TOR ERA. The HRs my concern was bad and terrible in '17. FWIW the AL East argument, Yankees were #2 in runs scored, Boston 10th, Baltimore 17 and Toronto 26th. Overall that is 4.75Runs and a .1 run a game above League average for runs scored skewed a lot because of NYY. For Milw it would have been 4.63 runs .02 below League average. Archer's Division games vs. Tor-5 Yankees-4 Balt-4 Boston-3 9 games vs the below avg teams and 7 vs the above. I'm thinking Rosenthal's inclusion of Archer being an Ace is on the, "He's an Ace for the Rays" not he's an Ace in all of Baseball. Like Nelson is the Brewer's Ace at this time(better numbers than Archer in '17 with a 3 pitch mix)

Here's the thing, all Burnes has done is perform to an "Ace" level. Hendriks for the Cubs was never supposed to be a #3 much less Cy Young a cpl years back. Guys with Ace ceilings are pitching in a bullpen for Arizona who never produced to where Burnes is. The thought process of the Pitching coach improving Archer yet, it would seem that doesnt include an ability to improve Burnes from being just a #3? Or how about Woodruff rising to a #3? (if not better stats imo) Im amazed honestly that Archer is 29. What is Arrieta? 30? The decline happened and will continue with him. Archer whos declined in impactful stats, now enters the age Arrieta's decline began. My complaint with Archer now adds age. This isnt a Yelich addition in the begginging of prime age who's ceiling is yet to be determined. But 29yr old Archer who typically would have reached his ceiling and crested that at this stage...which maybe thats why a few concerning impactful stats are declining.

I look at the Santana to TB situation asking for more in trade, like I do in Fantasy Baseball. Look, The Brewers have 6 standard OFs right now. Only 3 can start. And while you can say, that 4 can rotate and get enough PAs all around, that is false. Yelich had 695 last season 156games. Cain had 645 in 155 games. Santana had 607 in 151 games. That leaves 24 games to dish out to your 4th OF (Phillips had 37games and 98PAs last season) What's Ryan Braun to do? Oh play 1b, something completely new to him. Sure, I'd expect he can do it(Lucroy and Catchers move their all the time) But in your 6 OF logjam, that means Braun in order to get 125-140 games, you aren't spreading that around to you Full Time Platoon at 1b last season with Thames/Aguilar. 8 Players 4 positions. Let's solve this: Phillips and Broxton are going to be in AAA. Yes, no chance Phillips is on the team OD w/o injury to get him there. Your OF 4 is only Santana, Cain, and Yelich. Braun rotates in vs Leftys maybe? Or he just plays 1b. Thames or Aguilar? Well the strong side of a platoon is a LHB so it has to be Thames. Back to the fantasy side perspective: 3 players are out, if you can option them they'll just sit in AAA problem solved. If you can't, one of those 3 will be waived at some point. Potentially 2! So of course there's the trade proposals to solve your 8 for 4 positions. Look I will give you 50 cents on the Dollar for this trade, or simply wait when inevitably you waive one of these 8 players. Or, go ahead and have 6 guys play 4spots and detriment your team with the missing Bullpen arm. It will happen. Enjoy a B2B 12innings games where you pitch Hernan Perez because you have no one else to use, and oops, you lost both games. Now you react, because losing those two inevitable games pains you so much, you waive Thames, or Aguilar, or Broxton nothing in return....or you trade away Santana for 25cents on the dollar because he's OPS'ing in the 700s while on a 138 games started pace with all your forced shuffling just to get starts to Braun, Yelich, and Cain. Stearns backed himself in a corner with Santana value. As it was, there weren't many teams aligned that even made sense dealing with to acquire something that helped the 2018 team. (The perceived trade rumors) Now, if he takes a prospect acquiring trade option besides the 2018 help only help, then Stearns hasn't backed himself as bad in to a corner as I think he has. Still, Santana isn't getting 110 pennies on the dollar or an even on the dollar value after Yelich/Cain. That day made Santana 10% at minimum less value to any other team's cost to acquire him. Another scenario of hurt value to Santana. You solve by sending Broxton/Phillips to AAA. Cain is your starting CF who does a fine job. Cain runs in to the wall and hurts himself causing you to put Yelich in CF with Braun/Santana in corners(no Phillips or Broxton) Yelich goes on to misplay a fly ball and that misplay results in a lost game. Phillips makes that play easily. Broxton makes it 90% of the time. But they aren't your backups, Yelich is at CF. You can play these scenarios out but no matter what a Forced move means all your pieces are worth less than they were previously.

This shoving aside talk towards Woodruff is upsetting. A 3.29 Minors ERA with 16 out of 80 total games pitched in Colorado blemishing that. Archer had 3.77ERA in the minors and is at 3.63ERA as a Major Leaguer. So far Burnes has outpaced them both in results. One thing Archer is, is 4years of control 29-32. Woodruff has 6years and is 25 for all of '18. Burnes will be just 23 and with 6years control. You can't lose either of them for this guy. And for Santana+ one of them is just absurd! The warning signs are there with Archer and while he's 95% likely to outperform Woodruff this year and obviously 100% over Burnes, '19 may be drastically different, at which point he has 2 years control left and is 31. This versus a combined 11 years control? by Woodruff&Burnes. Chris Sale is younger than Archer with far, far better numbers. Archer's asking price is lunacy, and people are chiming to pay it!

... No, this is somewhat what I've been debating the whole time. I'd prefer to sign one via free agency and ship Santana off for a more "even" deal or maybe even prospects. I tend to agree with this but this leaves the Brewers with the 4 starting OF conundrum and likely signing Arrieta as your TOR pitcher as Darvish is waiting for the Dodgers. Perhaps the Brewers look at dealing Santana for Salazar AND signing Arrieta. Arietta Anderson Salazar Davies Woodruff/Chacin Nelson and Salazar under contract through 2020 season. Anderson and Davies through 2021. With Woodruff, Burnes, Ortiz still coming, our $100 million SP (Arrieta) serves as insurance in the event of injury (Nelson or Salazar even) or poor performance. Not necessarily advocating for Arrieta but I am concerned about Nelson having a lost 2018 regardless of progress to date and this team is ready to win now. I think I would prefer trading for Salazar and then maybe trading Thames and a good prospect (Ortiz?) for someone like Danny Duffy. I think people are really overlooking the Arby's raises that will be happening in the coming years. I would hate to have little to no budget room to improve the team. Duffy+Salazar=Arrieta money>Cobb/Lynn money

Correct. We lose the third round pick, not the third pick. Starting in 2018 the competitive balance picks are protected. Didn't realize that & why I debated the point earlier. Sorry to cause any confusion. I too didn't know that and thought it was the 3rd pick...which MLBTR noted it to be as #73. Clearly not a 3rd round pick which must be in the 90s? This makes signing Cain even a lil better than it already is. I mean a 3rd round MLB draft choice? What is that less than 25% of even making a ML roster?

Um so Michael Chavis=Domingo Santana? Archer=Chavis/Ray/Ortiz? Archer&Santana net a total of 1 top 100 prospect?