brewcrewdue80

I didn’t believe it either. So I verified it with some internet research. I will cite a source even if it is from the evil St Louis Fans. https://www.vivaelbirdos.com/2017/10/16/16477814/cardinals-chris-archer-trade-analysis That's some extreme WAR value cost. I thought it was around 7-8mil per WAR. And they are using Fangraphs WAR totals which are a lot higher for pitching than Baseball Reference based on one or two stats they value. Meanwhile BRef gave Archer a total of 3 WAR in the last 2! seasons combined. One site rewarding Ks more vs the HRs allowed. I find it amazing the increases they put on the 1 WAR value yearly. 11.1 to 11.8? In that case you are saying Mike Trout is 115million on his best season all alone in value. That's more than what small market teams are posting for entire payrolls! Yet the Angels have made just 1 playoff. It's also funny how it ranks pitching higher for WAR value but then lists pitching prospects as a lower surplus value. Just don't agree on the values tied to what they are projecting Archer for 4 years and the annual increases. Wouldn't the surplus value to prospects need to be increased yearly then?

Look forward to seeing Tampa trading Archer for half what is being suggested here. This guy isnt a Cy Young pitcher. A team isnt giving up 5 of its top 8prospects to acquire him. Name me one trade that was 1ML guy for 5 of a teams top 8 prospects? I dont get the surplus value posted above. Nearly 150mil? In 4years? So Archer is a 5War a year pitcher? Certainly not according to BRef. Please go and list the number of teams that have that 150mil surplus value of prospects and what that haul looks like. Now fit that in to their future and how are they looking? Sure Atlanta could make that deal (losing Allard+) but where does it get them?

People just aren't interested in Baseball down there. It's a Soccer City. Having lived down there multiple winter/springs, it's easier to watch Soccer on a Sunday than NFL games seriously! Think about that. If the NFL on Sundays are a hard find, baseball? And like you said, the transplants are loyal to their team. New York Yankees are probably just as popular down there as the loyal Marlins fans. Well, guess what? Yankees are in the AL. When it comes to the Mets fans down there, it's the I'm embarrassed to say I'm a Mets fan attitude. Loria got away with selling off it was all location that caused the fandom to not fill the seats. You got your location, exceeded the 2mil attendance the opening year, and went back to the same figures after. I just don't know what any group was thinking in wanting to buy from Loria and not know the money pit disaster they were getting. Maybe these guys have inside scoop to having the entire franchise moved soon and that location would be a lot more profitable for them>? Anyway, pretty amazing the non quality of prospects they've got and immediately trying to sell off most likely the only player who'd even play on the ML team probably for next to nothing. Take the MVP and get nothing but his contract off your books for him. Embarrassing.

What a disaster he's been. He's a waiver candidate pick up over a trade candidate.

Thoughts on Panik, is that if Stearns acquires him first, Villar is on the trade market as a dump off needing to rid him or Perez. Villar stands as the higher upside offensively, but Perez is better defensively. I'd wait on word on Villar or Perez traded somewhere before picking up Panik.

Just want to throw this out there. David Price with 1.5years of control left traded at the deadline got Drew Smyly, Nick Franklin, and Willy Adames. Adames wasn't a ranked prospect at the time, but now a top 20. Smyly was a lower top 100 with a 3.53 ERA in 2+seasons for Detroit. Nick Franklin was a poor showing former top 100 for a season plus on Seattle. I'm sharing this because Archer would compare with Price in terms of K ability but Not, Ace/Cy young numbers that Price put up. I feel the impact prospects tossed at Archer is too high a price as the ceilings for Harrison, Ortiz, And Diaz are all higher or in Diaz/Adames case equal than what Price got at the deadline when he had 2.7WAR earned already on that season. A comparison would be like, Davies/Villar/and Diaz. Food for thought.

No, I'm not going to pay Castro that for what he produces. Villar of '16 is superior to what Castro is average and his average is fairly consistent. a .740 OPS sub-average defense. Stanton's value is 10/295mil reduced by 50mil (30+Castro) or 10/245mil to the Yankees and Jose Devers with Jorge Guzman.

Reports on mlbtr say Stanton is headed to NY for a physical so its a certainty that the deal is done. Castro and Iow level prospects not a "best" of Yankees prospects. Total Salary relief deal. God I hate Miami's Franchise and the ownership's run of it. Predicted this was going to happen from the get go when the firced approval of the Stadium build went through. How do set that batting order? Judge 2 Stanton 4 Sanchez 5/6? Because b2b Judge/Stanton whoever is 2nd is going to have a lot of solo HRs.

Done All three of those guys ought to be top 100 prospects as the 2018 preseason rankings come. I don't think there are many teams to out bid that offer, willingly.

Agreed. Merrifield essentially hit as best as he's shown in the Minors. Most likely due for a regression which BRef has to .279 .324 .435 .759 and only 21 SBs. I'd fear that the team acquired a Villar type swoon in batting albeit with the less K's it's not as bad, but doesn't come with the ceiling Villar posted in '16. FWIW, this is Villar projection on BWAR: .268 .338 .430 .768.

Hundley plays with an attitude like he's been doing this for 7 years while possessing a Rookie QB ability. His emotion is too flat. Bad plays-flat. Great plays-pretty close to flat. A bad play/effort on someone's part-flat. It's amazing how his cadence has improved so much in loudness, but there is 0 flinches much less jumps offsides. He did well tucking the ball and running for yards. There's a NFL starting caliber QB in there, but he's raw and learning something each week. But like someone said above, He takes a step forward, and then well imo 1 back. Something good about the week before, he doesn't carry it to the next game when he does something much better that he didn't do that week before. I hope he continues with gradual improvements. I think there will be an opportunity to trade him for higher value than where we drafted him. Something on draft day of maybe a 2nd round with continued progress.

That was awesome to watch.

This is a good point. That's part of why I think it will be tough to trade Duffy. It doesn't make sense for the Royals to give him away for salary relief, but I'm not sure how many teams are going to give up substantial prospects to pay a mid rotation starter a market value contract. There are only so many pitchers available though and many teams that need pitching, and there's no guarantee he's even willing to come to Milwaukee. It's also no guarantee that Lynn signs for less, the market for SP may push his salary higher than it might have been last year or 2 years ago. Duffy might be a guy that teams look at that miss out on the Lynn/Cobb tier, that makes the most sense to me. I'd consider him getting traded at all this year to be unlikely. Well, I believe the projection is for Lynn to get a 4/48 to 56mil contract which is less than 59.75 that Duffy is owed. Even if it's 4/60 I'd take that over giving up the likes of Burnes/Harrison. Or the Villar or Perez with Harrison and Ortiz. I like Woodruff, also there's Hader. Without Nelson, making a big move in trade doesn't make sense to me. Just sign yourself a FA give these AA SPs a chance to grow the ML starters and for once, fill your rotation with Homegrown guys. I mean fwiw, Tyler Chatwood away from Coors may be better than Duffy and even guys like Arrieta. 62 Games started away from Coors 3.31ERA. I'd think he'd be a guy willing to sign a 1yr with option deal and look to become a FA again as he turns 29 or 30. Man, reading Chatwood's Fangraphs stats, his Velocity was up, the last 2 seasons he induced over a 57% GB rate! He'll be 28 for all of '18 so this past year was a Prime year. Appears to have gotten better with a Curve Ball and thrown more this season as a 3rd pitch. I'm beginning to think I've been chiming for the wrong guy. He also doesn't come with a QO attached. Mr. Stearns if you have contacts that read this forum, Please go sign Tyler Chatwood!

How is it we want to give up a ton for Danny Duffy making 14mil or more the next 4 years, versus signing Lance Lynn to less and keep our prospects? In a year where velocity was higher for many, his was lower across the board. Duffy also, has never had 30+ starts in a season, something Lynn does every year.

Nope, cant do that now. Lets go back to an Outback vs Auburn Like so many of Badgers Bowl games.

So WI loses by 6 to a team now being regarded to be in the Playoffs. So we must fall to what? 6? Alabama 5? They should match WI with Alabama. But like I predicted before, if we lost, we'll find a matchup again vs the non-power conference undefeated so Central Florida. Alabama can get USC.

Lol to not as accurate considering Hornibrook isnt exactly the most accurate. Maybe Stave was less accurate because in my opinion he has a weaker arm than Hornibrook.

HorniBrook'd is right. And yes Stave had a worse arm. Im calling Fake news on Barrett and surgery. Not one moment in this game has he looked like there is a problem with his legs.

Fiers would be someone you talk about when better FA targets are signed by other teams and he becomes one of the better targets remaining. If a team goes ahead and signs him right away so be it. Fister was just that. The Rangers are now 1 SP less need so a guy like Chatwood becomes that much more available to sign, if that's your target. Fister and Fiers are rebuild types, in my opionion, to fill out a Starting 5. Texas to me has that look to their roster. Sort of a borderline 80 win potential if all fall right(Fister pitching to Det/Wash levels) in order to reach that. It's the Melvin patch a sinking ship signing. Stearns has shown he doesn't operate that way. I don't see him looking up Fiers to fill out the rotation.

I don't know if park factors are that affecting Stanton. Mind you he had his numbers in Marlins stadium and the NL East. He'd get games at Colorado and Arizona to offset some of the Dodgers/Giants park factors. FWIW his splits for his entire career are over 1.0 OPS against all of the West teams. For the stadiums themselves only Arizona's Chase field is his OPS below 1.0 at a modest .934. I think the split difference is 45-52 vs 55-75. If Boston would trade for him( they won't) but the HR amounts would be insane. A side Note: Stanton has one of his worst OPS at Miller Park a paltry .614 in 23 games. Which is the lowest outside of no longer Turner Field when played over 5games. also fun fact: Stanton hit double the HRs in 10 games at Atlanta's new park-4 than he had in 42 games at Turner-2

I see no reason why the Marlins would part with Yelich taking on Santana, unless Santana was the best offer. Yelich is someone I believe will explode in numbers when moved away from Miami. You're getting a 4-5WAR player that somewhere else could just be a 5+WAR player who never costs more than 15mil in a year. I'd expect a team needs to part with a Brinson level prospect with 6years full team control, and more for Yelich. Brinson, Ortiz or Burnes, and Trent Grisham or Corey Ray. They are rebuilding, not retooling. I honestly have no idea why Miami is entertaining trading Yelich. He's going to be 26 for all of next season and you have him for 5 years at a little more than 12mil avg per year. You can't possibly tell me a guy not making over 10 mil for another 2 seasons is too much a commitment to hold on to with Consistent talent in rebuilding. Why trade him today and not 2 or 3 years if ever? Stanton makes sense, Ozuna makes sense, and Gordon. Not Yelich unless it was a monster return. Yelich was a top 15-25 prospect in own right and living up to it with a boatload of cheap control. So maybe it should become Brinson, Burnes, and Ortiz with say Nottingham. to be the value asked for in Yelich. The difference in his '16 season vs '17 was basically 3HRs and 14pts better in avg. And you know he hit HRs more on the road. So how high does he climb when 5 more HRs are added to his stats over just 5 outs? Yelich should be used after these trades as the face of the Franchise to build around. Trading him along with the 3 or 4 others leave them with JT Realmuto and nobody else. The players traded for?

Man, just think if this team had Cichy, Peavy, and Cephus? The above mentions to a passing team causing us troubles. Mayfield and Oklahoma would scare me. Hurtz of Alabama should the committee find a way putting them in. (Oklahoma loss, Clemson loss?) But let's get there first before really dreaming up these scenarios. I really think the Badgers defense will cause Barrett to throw 2 ints under pressure. The Badgers are a different team this year especially in that they are so good in the 2nd half. Taylor will get his yards/TD. Our rushing Defense is #1, so I see Ohio state being in trouble down situations that won't be good for Barrett. Gotta top this season off! Let's go Badgers!

Or you cater to big market fans because, they will bring the most readers and advertisement money. There's probably also precedent of the big markets signing the top tier guys over a smaller market so you may as well assume they are most likely destinations for Otani. I like Minnesota as a darkhorse in this. They are close to being a World Series contender while not having an established DH. Otani wants some greatness and leading Minnesota to WS would be a greater accomplishment than taking the Yankees to WS.

I can't fathom the Marlins taki g Broxton/Villar for Yelich alone unless you included the likes of Brinson and say Peralta or Ortiz. The guy is entering his prime on the cheap, a 4War player whose home field is a big disadvantage. Coming to Miller Park, Hed certainly jump to a 900 OPS player which if so, makes him a 5+ War MVP kind of player. Issue is, I cant get behind a Santana, Yelich, Braun OF. Braun/Santana would leave Yelich too much ground to cover for what he'd bring in CF. So now to take Yelich, you have to move Braun or Santana in a deal and Braun is borderline impossible. So Santana has to go to have a Yelich, Phillips, Braun OF.

Im of belief Sogard is signed as a waivable backup to use as a safrty valve. His value may come at the ability to empower Stearns in trade talks. "We have Villar and Sogard, I don't need (so and so) if it costs me (Brinson/Hader et al) the offer is (so and so)" Stearns gets his guy and simply moves on from Sogard. The only auestion is why sign him before Rule 5 draft? Unless theres heated talk between Stearns and whomever already from last season on a guy.