brewcrewdue80

WI should jump to #3 based on 1&2 losing. But Auburn will leap them and they'll be 4. The committee must be thrilled with what happened this weekend honestly. The 4 are simple. Winner of Auburn/Georgia. Clemson. Oklahoma. Wisconsin if beat OSU or it's Alabama. I wouldn't be surprised if Georgia jumped ahead of WI because that's life for WI. Fact is 1 of those 2 will lose next week. Wisconsin wins vs OSU they jump back in to top 4. Committee will keep OSU out. TCU out if beats Oklahoma. The loser between Miami/Clemson. ND's loss drops them out. WI wins they are in. IF they lose, they won't be top 6 much less top 4. WI beats OSU that cancels out Oklahoma's best win over OSU. How can you quantify 1 loss Oklahoma over an unbeaten with the same high signature win. They lost to Iowa St. Would have beaten TCU twice who also lost to Iowa St. TCU becomes most likely over-rated who's best win is Oklahoma St. So, I expect the best and in the Playoffs, there isn't a way to justify keeping an undefeated WI now that we face Ohio St. If we lost, what bowl would we get relegated to? Vs. who? Ohio st and the Pac-10 won't have the Rose Bowl and you take those champions vs. eachother? We'd probably get Miami after losing to Clemson so then a game where winning would only drop us 1-2 spots in rankings, and losing drop us 3-4. So at this stage, WI will finish either ranked 9-12 or top 5.

It's basically agreed Abreu is better than the platoon mix of Thames/Aguilar. Now, is the little improvement really worth the cost? Nate Said: Maybe you could get Abreu for Ortiz, Harrison, and Thames but that might be wishful thinking also. This idea, removes the value Aguilar has to the team. So then what? you play him in AAA? don't have a backup to Abreu I assume? Perez in emergencies? You give up two of the highest ceiling prospects from the minors and it's for the 1-1.5WAR gain at 1b position? You have control of Thames and Aguilar for the same 3 years Abreu would come with in control....So you're estimating a 3-4.5WAR gain over the current at the cost of those two? If you are going to use those high ceiling prospects, use them for a big improvement and not something so minor.

This. I think we're good enough at 1b. Thames/Aguilar are far better than Sea Bass and Yuni B. They aren't replacement level 1b. I think pushing this idea is because there's hate on Thames because the fact he'll see time in the OF, and the haters don't want that. Thames isn't as bad at 1b as posted here, it's the OF that he's dinged on so much. Hopefully when you add Phillips and Brinson if Broxton doesn't recover, you don't need a Thames or Perez in the OF. Let Thames/Aguilar be a great platoon/PH bats off the bench. Aside from the silly "hater" talk, I've read the bolded sentence five times and still have no clue what it's supposed to mean or be in reference to. IGT's down the stretch, other posts in Rumors, or in Major Laegue about future roster. Just down the stretch in his season a number seemed to sour on him, defense was knocked a number of times. He was more productive than expectations, and yet down the stretch youdthink he was every bit worse than Chris Carter.

This. I think we're good enough at 1b. Thames/Aguilar are far better than Sea Bass and Yuni B. They aren't replacement level 1b. I think pushing this idea is because there's hate on Thames because the fact he'll see time in the OF, and the haters don't want that. Thames isn't as bad at 1b as posted here, it's the OF that he's dinged on so much. Hopefully when you add Phillips and Brinson if Broxton doesn't recover, you don't need a Thames or Perez in the OF. Let Thames/Aguilar be a great platoon/PH bats off the bench.

Baseball America's top 10 AFL writeup: 9. Monte Harrison, OF, Salt River (Brewers) As a member of Salt River’s taxi squad, Harrison was limited to playing two games per week. He took advantage of his limited time on the field. Despite playing in just 13 games, Harrison tied for third in the league with five home runs and hit .283/.333/.604. Known more for his supreme athleticism than his baseball skills, Harrison's feel for hitting is coming along nicely and he's starting to slow the game down. Harrison's plus speed allows him to handle center field, but an above-average arm that flashes plus may target him for right. He's got strong baserunning instincts, with his speed better underway than out of the box. Yeah he's on a don't trade list. Add Burnes, Hader, Woodruff, and Hiura. Brinson I expect something big due to trading him and with Harrison now putting his tools together with our glut in OF, I'd accept the idea on him being traded. Peralta I'm adding him now. That K rate has to scream elite RP (prospect). His height brings pause as a starter. But, thinking ahead with AA experience, I'd have to believe he's in one of the driver seats to be added to the bullpen as 2018 unfolds.

Well there is TJ missed season for '16, and this year after. I'm giving him credit to achieve 33GS this year after such an injury. Would you expect Nelson to return this season and average his IP per start of this season? I thought I read we'd lose our 3rd round pick IF we signed to over a 50million deal? The projection of 4/48 would mean no loss of pick. Is it the team's 3rd pick we'd lose? And not 3rd rd?

Oh the madness! How funny to the idea. I would think that if/when something like that happened a new rule would immediately take effect. Since if this happened once, why wouldn't a defense just line a guy on sidelines helmut on and ready to sprint at QB when noticing 12man flag flies? In an attempt to sack the QB. Can hear the announcer. "Flag flies as 12 men on field and oh the whole sideline rushes on, look at Rodgers scramble away from the rush and heaves it towards quintuple coverage! Side note, that was something I noticed in Hundley since game 1 and 2, was his presnap voice being louder and more authoritative to induce an offsides where that fantasy scenario could ensue.

4/48/56 is just 12-14mil a year. I just can't understand why he's so disliked. Lynn is a 200Inning typical pitcher. Consistent ERA. The HR rate is being over-reacted on like now he's terrible at giving up HRs when prior to this year he was exceptional. That stat leads to the higher Fip which is being over-reacted on as well. It's so bizarre, because you look at Fangraphs' numbers, he's at his norm from '15 in velocity. The GB rate is their as normal to career, as is the Fly ball and Line drive. Everything lines up. Then you have the rankings to pitch type, and this season was the first time Fangraphs ranked his slider a positive pitch, with Fast Ball remaining a consistent(there's that word) positive pitch. They gave him a value of 10.8 for these numbers. He averaged near 26mil per the previous 3 seasons pitched. If you're paying 12-14mil for 4 years there stands a great chance for him to earn that contract in just his 1st 2 seasons. This is a bounce back candidate should his HR/FB stat moves back towards it norm. That is your one stat that is abnormal, so it's the most likely of all the names being tossed around to give you better return than currently projected value. We have a hole in the Rotation, and this guy represents for the price an arm who will give you 30+ starts solidifying a rotation that isn't filled out with that beyond 2 names now.

Yeah, no way can you get 50-1 odds on Milwaukee making the playoffs. You start off with 1/3rd of the League making the playoffs. 33% to suggest a team that finished 1game from playoffs at 2%. Yeah right. World Series sure, but not just to make the Playoffs. What's amazing is that the projection is Lower than it was going in to '17. It's like, can you compare the projection from last year to this projection? You'd think guys like Pina, Shaw, Anderson, Davies, Kneble, Thames and Hader should be higher than the projection from '17. Regression or not. Did they over rate Villar, Broxton, and Guerra so much that their regression alone is what comes to this projection?

That first line you posted Santana was 4yrs young for level at AA while Harrison was split between age level (A) and 1.5yrs young (A+). Harrison at 21 split age level (A) and 1.5yrs young (A+) 272/350/832 Santana at 21 was 5.5yrs young (AAA) 296/384/858 This all revolves around what you *believe*. Plain and simple. Rationalizing this by saying Santana got a head start by playing rookie ball at 16 and A at 17 is absurd (he was trash in A at 17) as he still has to perform. Harrison had 200 more PA this year than each of the previous 2yrs - but you attempt to make it seem as though Harrison barely touched a ball prior to being drafted and has played injured nonstop for 3yrs Okay new rationalization on what I'm preaching on Harrison and different perspective: 59 252 230 41 64 16 1 10 35 16 1 14 69 .278 .341 .487 .828 60 270 243 26 58 13 2 5 17 10 6 23 58 .239 .307 .370 .678 The top are the numbers for Harrison at Carolina A+ ball The bottom are the numbers Corey Ray put up after being drafted out of college. This is where Harrison would be at if he'd have gone to college and then was draft eligible in '16. If this were true and Harrison put this number line up after drafted this year how are you feeling towards him and comparing to the numbers I put to Santana? The progress this year and numbers are excellent. Just because he was drafted out of High School doesn't mean he's nothing if he's not making it to the Majors at age 23. A team gets 6-6.7 years of team control. If Harrison were 24 projecting out to 27 as a Rookie, I'd dismiss enthusiasm. But he's 22 turning 23 during next season in AA potentially reaching AAA. So long as he's reaching by age 26 year, you have control of that prospect til age 32. I'll take it every time if it's just his peak age years. So, he won't have a 16+years career. We only need the peak years, which is why I voice extending Arcia because he won't be but 29 his final controlled season. Harrison can still prosper for the Brewers to their fullest extent of team control. What should he be posting to compare to Santana?

You said what I was thinking but didn't really want to say. I had high hopes on him, I liked him predrafts. But really what are we doing with him? 10 total games started and 2 Relief for a total of 44IP. 25Walks so bigger than 5 per 9. He'll be in A ball somewhere and with the system's depth, a guy that I don't see making it past Rule 5 draft still in Milw's system.

Harrison this year: 122 513 453 73 123 28 2 21 67 27 4 43 139 .272 .350 .481 .832 Santana at 20: 112 476 416 72 105 23 2 25 64 12 5 46 139 .252 .345 .498 .842 Santana had 335 games played above Rookie ball at this stage. Harrison having gone through injuries has had 204 Total games played including rookie ball. One guy had played 3 straight full seasons in the minors starting when he was 16. Harrison raw and newer to baseball had started just over half of the games the previous three seasons. 120 513 443 63 131 27 2 16 81 6 4 64 149 .296 .384 .474 .858 This is the line Santana posted at 21 in AAA the next year. I believe Harrison can match these numbers, potentially exceeding them as 16HRs and 6SBs isn't that special but certainly the walk increase is. Harrison's monthly BBs were 6, 15, 10, 4, and 8. He had 8 in June at WI when promoted, 2 then 4, then 8. It's progression. Can you fault him being 2 years behind Santana's age and production in the minors? I think the numbers show he has done Santana like numbers if you give him due on the delay between starting pro ball as well to injuries vs none.

Theres big time fear in this because if hes aging, 2017 version Arrieta who only worsens. Now what? In two years that version is being waived still owed over 50million? Or you Matt Garza him and play him because youre invested 50+ million for him to pitch for you, only instead of rebuild this is going on during being competitive? I hope its the drive up the price interest and not really interested.

Holy cow, I said before we were starting to overrate Harrison a bit, not blow the cover off of reality. 7 WAR? Andrew McCutchen? Harrison is a 22 year old who has never played above High A. McCutchen was a rookie in MLB at age 22 with an OPS+ of 121. Harrison has, probably generously, a 1 in 50 chance or so of ever being a 7 WAR player at the MLB level or enjoying the kind of career that McCutchen has. Domingo Santana is a much more realistic projection for Harrison and he's got a LONG ways to go to even get there. And thats just it. A Santana projection offensively with better defensively equals what? I dont get fully how War is made via defensive metrics and how it adds up. Why one 1 positive DWar with 2positive OWar can lead to a 2 War player and another a 4War player. How a 0 OWar and 2 DWar can lead to a 1War - 3War player. Harrison can play in CF, certainly in corner. Hes faster. So, taking a projection like Santana and adding for position/speed/&defense, how high can it go? Also if some prospect ranking are putting him 3-5th in our minors, thats easily top 100 no? Or do we now only possess 2-4 top 100 guys? There are so many other pieces to use for trade bait. Harrison, much as Brinson who Stearns set off limits, has to be just that off limits. Trade Ray, Clark, Stokes all 3 for that matter. Harrison has too much going for him in what is his 1st truly full healthy season, since you want to knock him on age.

One offensive adjustment needs to be run more, so Hundley isnt dropping back over 40times in the game. Second is quick passes...as Ive barked on how the offense always jumps in to gear when they finally did this during games. In Hundleys case, he's clearly not ready to be a pocket passer. 3 step dropbacks and throw. Just gotta accept big plays are few and far between, and push for more productive little plays. Toss in an on purpose overthrown deep go route to keep the defense back from thinking nothing is thrown beyond 6yards and crowding.

NO thanks! Trading Harrison in any package that does not get us an ACE is a silly proposition imo...I am not on the Archer or Cobb train, they just aren't going to be difference makers, in that they can get us over the hump to a playoff appearance. Trading away our future for either guy is just not smart. Not sure if your serious - Our Future OF is stacked and Monte is still #5 on the OF list. Archer is a #2 guy I take him serious. I wouldn't do that trade. Harrison has too much going for him to sell for a #2/3 pitcher. Put it this way, Harrison's numbers would be Andrew McCutchen his 1st 3 years in MLB. A continued improvement moves that from 4WAR to 7WAR. Basically when Archer would lost to FA, Tampa would be enjoying a 7WAR ability OF. Not to mention this year's team is not ready to perform with Nelson hurt. There's a lot of confidence in our pitching to keep at rates of a career year in Anderson/Nelson/Davies but there needs to be pause for producing to a more norm. 3 years prior to this year Anderson was worth 3.7WAR total, he exceeded that this last year, but on average he comes down to 2 not 4WAR. What's to say he comes back with the same velocity now that he has a contract? He hit 30 next season, the velocity dips a MPH how effective is he vs 17? Davies isn't special. He's productive but not special, straight forward #3. Wily Peralta had a good year at about this stage in his career, and those Fip/K rates didn't produce the following years. And then who? Woodruff/Hader? Suter/Wilkerson? You'll blow up the cream of the crop prospects to field a #2 at best, a #2/previous 4, a #3 or 4, #3-Bullpen/#3 to 5 or #3-5/#4-waiver wire? And that's if we were keeping Hader/Woodruff/Suter when dealing for Archer. I agree with the poster on it's still 1year to early to make this kind of move. Of course depends on the cost of whom we're trading. We have a lot of depth to support this team, versus relying on 1 individual and lacking depth. There are a number of guys who had great years (Burnes, Harrison, Gatewood, Peralta, Ponce, Stokes, and Hiura) to see continued growth/advancement. Yeah, not all will be studs but you could probably label a value as of now and for a few that value will more than double after next season, while those that don't, won't see a big change negatively. Think like the Gomez trade, how we acquired all of Santana, Hader, Phillips, and Houser. We're talking about giving up that kind of package. Santana's numbers, are something to consider with Harrison's, not great at A-level, better in AA, really good in AAA, to what he became today. Harrison seems to be following that ladder, only with more speed and defensive ability. That's putting him above a 4WAR touching 5 I'd assume with a higher ceiling. (McCutchen?)

I can agree on playing garbage needing addressing when in conference play and not finished. Its like an added bye week. They played 1st stringers likely how long? Alabama should have had to play the Iron Bowl and then on to the conference championship with their choice to play Mercer Then over the Bye week. Anywho, WI big, big win! Wtg! I question numerous playcalling, giving Hornibrook the reins to pass so often vs running the ball. Then we had that Wth are you thinking up 2 score 3downs. Taylor ran 51? Yards 1st down. Run the clock...nope Hornibrook drop back 10+yard sack lickily, which he could have fumbled and on that play an easy defensive 6 run in. I think that series of plays happened around 5mins to go so running clock was in order, not pushing for a hero throw by the worst Int rate QB in NCAA.

This was being discussed in the Draft/International Talent Thread. In order the teams with the most money to offer Ohtani: Rangers, Yankees, Twins(now that they voided a 3mil signing), Pirates, Marlins, and Mariners. All other teams would be offering less than 1million to him, though I'd assume a team could trade for some extra allotment considering Rangers/Yankees, Twins have over 3mil to spend and Pirates over 2million. MLBTR also posted an article on extending Ohtani that that process can not be discussed to influence a signing. IF/when an extension is made, depending on the amount/time that it is signed could give MLB indication that this rule wasn't followed. I had assumed, "what keeps a team like the Yankees from signing him to the limitations, and then giving him say a 7yr 70million deal?" We'll see what happens if/when that happens.

This just shown in my feed. Twins get back 3mil to use by June 15th on signings. http://www.baseballamerica.com/international/twins-void-3-million-contract-dominican-shortstop-jelfry-marte/?utm_content=buffer33f5f&utm_medium=social&utm_source=facebook.com&utm_campaign=buffer#eSBVuYuJMizQewJL.97 "With Marte's contract voided, the Twins have an extra $3 million available in their bonus pool for the 2017-18 signing period, which ends on June 15, 2018. Japanese two-way star Shohei Ohtani is the biggest name on the verge of becoming eligible to sign, while Cuban center fielder Julio Pablo Martinez is also likely to be declared a free agent during the current signing period. It's also possible Marte could still sign with the Twins for a smaller bonus." "Most of the high-profile 2017 prospects from the Dominican Republic and Venezuela have already signed. Two exceptions are center fielder Raimfer Salinas (the No. 10 international prospect) and catcher Antonio Cabello (the No. 15 prospect), both of whom train with Francisco Ortiz in Venezuela, though several sources believe the Yankees are likely to sign them." If Minnesota still had 3mil+ to sign International, they now have 6+mil. Or was the updates from Marte void leave them with a little over 3mil to sign Otani? So the Yankees are tied to 2 players they in a top 30, so most likely to reach their 3mil+ left to sign international...So could Texas and the Yankees sorta come to an agreement on who wins the Otani signing, that they'd be left to sign Cabello/Salinas? It is odd, with how Texas had abused the system before that they'd have so much left to use to sign away. Same with the Yankees. Makes ya go hmmmm.

No question that Bellinger deserved it, but Manny didn't get a vote of any kind. Which is completely ridiculous, but it's obviously not a big deal. You could take the bottom 5 in votes 12 total 2016 prospect rank German Marques- 3.1 BWar #53/73 Manuel Margot- 2.5 BWar #18/24 Kyle Freeland- 3.3 BWar unranked previously top 100. Luis Castillo- 2.5 BWar in 15 starts unranked Ian Happ- 1.8 BWar #63/54 Pina comes in at 2.6 BWar. Never Ranked Pina had a great year, just the bottom 5 had more prospect history or in Castillo's case a 15 game starting stretch of production to complete a season, Pina didn't have that kind of stretch to finish the season. Colorado making the Playoffs over Milwaukee likely gave the few who voted for them a nod over Pina. It's 30 voters with a 1st, 2nd, 3rd to vote. You're looking at 4 2nds and 8 3rds who didn't vote Hoskins(18HRs in 50games) Bell (26HR-top 35prospect) and Dejong(25HRs-.857 OPS for a SS) Pina's counting stats just don't add up to go with age and lack of prospect rankings. Maybe if you had 4 votes you'd argue on Pina getting at least 1, but there was a stronger case for 4 names with only 3 to vote for.

To the bolded part, that was my suggestion without Woodruff, because the Brewer needs are filling out a 5man rotation. Woodruff I see as #5 in that equation give or take #4 depending on how we deal with Hader. So, including Woodruff in the deal would lead to another hole to plug. I'd just think Stearns would make a hard line on that with the knowledge to Tampa that swapping Woodruff/Ortiz at this moment is in the prospect world even only Ortiz is younger with potentially higher ceiling. Tampa would be nitpicking on essentially just 1.3 seasons away over currently ready in missing on this deal, which for Milwaukee is a deal made to improve for 2018 season and Tampa to improve it's Future.

Odorizzi's career ERA+ is 103 and just 100 this past year. No 200IP to rely on. Posts similar numbers that he did in the minors that shows no ceiling at all aside from a #3 pitcher. He'll have 3 years of team control that goes through Super 2 Arb so it'll get pricey for what he produces. Ponce on his own to me has higher potential than Odorizzi brings. Tampa would definitely do the deal if that was the offer as Aguilar really fits their 1b profile,needs, cheap, under team control. With Ponce being a guy that may end up pitching for them when September rolls around. I'd expect Tampa moves one of Archer or Odorizzi, with Archer being on a sell high pedestal while Odorizzi is on a buy low pedestal. Odorizzi would remain to work on value and be a target around trade deadline if he's doing better than he was in 2017. I'd rather send a better package to Tampa for Archer vs. the smaller package for Odorizzi and the ceiling he brings which I see as Archer's floor. The type of pitcher Odorizzi is something the Brewers farm has plenty of and better, just give those guys some time.

I think the Arcia/Brinson price is what it takes to get Archer. He's a big name, solid pitcher on a very team friendly deal for 4 more years. If you want to avoid Arcia, then I would assume Brinson/Burnes/Diaz/and a couple smaller pieces. Tampa isn't going to let him go cheap, they have no reason to. All that said, I'm not advocating for any of these deals. I don't think Archer is quite enough of a game changing talent where we should include Brinson. Close, but not quite. And Arcia is more valuable than Brinson so to suggest both is over estimating what Archer will command. Archer most definitely isn't a game changer to the Brewers when it'd take away their best SS up the middle defender, and then highest talented OF. The ripple effect on now having to play others at SS vs being a backup would just hurt the team more than the help 34 Archer starts provides. Dubon is the best SS in the Brewers near major league system. By the time he's likely to make a decent impact vs negative we'll be in our 3rd year of 4 with Archer.

Dubon to me just screams an in between Hernan Perez/Luis Sardinas. Which imo means a backup, not an everyday starter.

August: .221/.274/.382/.656 Sept./Oct: .257/.325/.286/.611 This is just flat out not getting it done. If Luc was out there for a 1year deal, even at $12M, he’s well worth the opportunity that he returns back closer to his all star form. Shaw had a .698 OPS in August. Thames . 691. It happens. For picking out the two worst months for a defense first catcher, those numbers aren't even really that bad. There's no doubt Lucroy rebounded in the second half, but I'm always skeptical of guys who rebound big in Colorado. There's a chance Lucroy could rebound to his All-star form. I hope he does. There's a chance that Vogt could, too. I still remain unconvinced that a guy who may or may not even end up being an upgrade over Manny Pina is worth a 12M dollar investment with other needs that require more urgent attention. Lucroy will very very likely return to Colorado. Colorado does have a stud Catcher who happened to get hurt and off to a slow start to his hype in Tom Murphy. So I'm not sure Colorado needs Lucroy that badly as it limits Murphy at starts. At the 1 year idea I guess it makes sense, but 2 or more and paying money for someone who blocks someone at minimum cost who just may be better. Maybe Murphy is on the shelf to start the season? That would lead even more to signing Lucroy, but if he's to be healthy to start the season, Lucroy doesn't make sense. I suppose you could sign Lucroy to a 3 year or even 4 year deal and move Murphy in a trade. Lucroy is sure to rake and it could be to a tune well above his year last year because it was such a down year for him. You can guess there was a timing/change in his swing seeing as his LD/GB/and FB percentages went higher in the GB category. He puts some lift in his swing and gets back to norm on LD/FB he'll be of great value. Spending an offseason watching tape, working on his swing, he was just to talented all these other years to say he can't return to his prior self/form. If as someone posted above, Lucroy should just take the highest offer and years vs betting on himself for 1year were to turn true, I'd be a fan to sign him to 3/25-30 mil. And then make that trade idea on Pina. Especially in a Chris Archer thread that notion since they are bad at Catcher.