brewcrewdue80
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Everything posted by brewcrewdue80
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2016 Draft Pick Discussion, Rounds 1-5
brewcrewdue80 replied to 1992casey's topic in MLB Draft & International Signings
I'm done. Look at the broadcast, they aren't thrilled like Pint or Anderson. Ray. Blah! I need to go punch something. That is back to back drafts, the player I won't least was selected. -
2016 Draft Pick Discussion, Rounds 1-5
brewcrewdue80 replied to 1992casey's topic in MLB Draft & International Signings
See this is where the underslot deals just wont work for Milw this year. San Diego, LA Dodgers, Colorado, Atlanta Braves and Cincy all make 3 picks before Milw even gets to make their 2nd selection. Then you have Philly's money to work with 10.5million in their two picks. Take best pitcher available -
Last thought. I believe there will be too many Underslot strategies going on that Milwaukee can't compete with. Too many picks before the 2nd that can see that strategy put to work. I hope Jason Groome signs to slot and is the pick unless Pint is there. But either or. Not a draft to find an underslot for Milw.
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Pitching, Pitching, Pitching. Think about trades. Jon Lucroy is being annointed the #1 trade player this deadline. He can't get Texas to give up Joey Gallo. But Pitching, It's 3 players that are top 100 basically, if you're the #1 or #2 SP out there available. It's draft TOR potential over and over for me so long as you can sign them. Gomez/Fiers got us Santana, Phillips, Hader thankfully and Adrian Houser. I think the Pitchers can net us depth in position players easier than depth at pitching. Gallardo got potentially what is the system's #1 SP prospect Marcos Diplan and a future late inning/closer? in Corey Kneble+ the Sardinas to Ramon Flores to this point. I just see the value is higher for a Pitcher in trade than position players, because Pitching is so hard to come by. Not just quality but avoiding injuries. I like what Milwaukee could be bringing up here in 4years, Our own NY Mets 5some of SPs that are Aces to #2s. Hader, Diplan, Mederios, add Ponce and Kirby +#5 I hope today. 1 type of these guys can be gotten in Braun or Lucroy trade. In this era of hard throwers and less bats, I believe the goal should be to win that battle of throwers vs bats.
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I'm all in hope of Riley Pint. 102MPH is what Aroldis Chapman tosses. If Chapman becomes his floor, we'll get prospects to fill future needs. 102 is a batter commiting to swinging before he even throws. So wildness becomes a mute point, the swing is already happening. Now if he reaches a Full time Starter? That will be a blast in all of baseball to watch.
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Question on Lowe: Has it been determined he's set in stone on playing 3b? MLB's draft preview says this: While there's more projection involved when evaluating Lowe as a pitcher, it's easy to dream on an athletic 6-foot-4, 190-pounder with a loose arm and relatively clean delivery. He works at 91-93 mph and can hit the mid-90s with his fastball, which plays up thanks to its downward plane, run and sink. Lowe's three-quarters breaking ball lacks consistency, but it has the makings of a solid slider, and he has some feel for a sinking changeup that gets too firm at times Seems interesting. I think Alex Verdugo was more a pitcher in few drafts ago and the Dodgers took him to play OF instead. To my surprise as I really liked his pitching videos. So could a team take Lowe and put him down for Pitcher? Could he do both?
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Voting goes with Wily Peralta. Hasn't his demotion been discussed with questions to CC? I would say those questions and his demotion hasn't happened yet because Garza hasn't returned. Since he will get another start or two before Garza's return, Peralta's numbers in those starts likely speaks to his demotion on its own. Looking ahead that would come at home vs NYM and @LADodgers. 1 Quality start in 12 games started. I wouldn't think there is another SP in baseball with just 1 or less QS with 10starts or more. I'm looking it up. So far Ubaldo Jimenez with a higher ERA has 3QS, Jake Peavy has over 3, Wade Miley has 3, Finally Mike Pelfrey has 2 in 11GS, Here's one Anibal Sanchez who's last appearance was in BP 0QS, Clay Bucholtz has 2 in 10GS and has 3 bullpen appearances now, Shelby Miller has 1 in 10GS, Even Alfredo Simon has 2QS with approaching 9ERA in 10GS and that's it for 10GS. He would rank then 2nd or 3rd worst depending where you want to put Miller in Starting Pitchers. 10GS-12 but 7ERA. At 1/3+ on the season in starts to basically be bottom 3 in all of Baseball as a SP has no more rights to continue on starting.
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That's Awesome and seems like a great draft top 5 overall. MLB's draft says this on Quintana A member of the U.S. 18 and under national team that won gold in Japan last September, Quintana had a monster senior season that saw him shatter his school's home run record, previously held by his brother. While there is some swing and miss to his game, many scouts love Quintana's explosive bat speed, which should translate to continued power as a pro. A well below-average runner, no one projects Quintana to stay at shortstop, his high school position. Some see an offensive-minded second baseman in the future and some teams have asked Quintana to work out behind the plate, where his above-average arm could work well. Quintana gets extremely high marks for his makeup and he's been willingly accommodating team's requests to try different positions. That, plus his bat, are what could get him off the board in the first three or four rounds. The tie in of being a Catcher is interesting to potentially find in someone that is currently SS for HS. Lodolo reads as someone that I'd think be a tough signing. The projectables for 6'6" at his age, he could begin throwing upper 90s at any month now and boom you have a 1st rounder. Krook seems like a sneaky good pick, I wonder what he would price himself at. Grier. Would he be a Slot value guy? Or under slot at that choice? Picking a speedy OF with the 2nd rd choice I wouldn't be all to high on. Just another repeat of a system filled with that kind of types. Just on read, I'd probably flip Lodolo and Grier in terms of slot value. So to get the higher ceiling Lodolo.
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Seid's lasting mark
brewcrewdue80 replied to colbyjack's topic in MLB Draft & International Signings
I found this also last night. Mlb did a redraft of 2011. This tidbit leads the article: The most talented Draft this millennium came in 2005. It sent 26 of its 30 first-rounders to the Majors, including Ryan Braun, Troy Tulowitzki and Andrew McCutchen. The second-best came in 2011, which scouts immediately recognized as a crop of once-in-a-decade quality. Flat out ouch. 2nd best draft class this millennium and with 2 picks the Brewers whiffed. The Redraft has Milw selecting Robert Stephenson and Joe Panik. http://m.mlb.com/news/article/182532366/fernandez-a-pirate-redrafting-the-2011-picks?topicid=167757330 Of the 33 redrafts 16 are Pitchers. Of course a few are taken before Milw's pick: Cole, Bauer, Bradley, Jose Fernandez on 2nd pick but that leaves 12 pitchers they chose Bradley and Jungmann over who are apart of this 2nd best draft class this millennium. List would go as: Gray #18, Glasnow 5th rd, Blake Snell Supplemental 1st rd, Joe Ross #25, Stephenson #27, Michael Fulmer Supplement 1st rd, Daniel Norris 2nd rd, Matt Wisler 7th rd, Ken Giles 7th rd, Cody Allen 23rd rd, Anthony Descalfani 6th rd, Kyle Hendriks 8th rd, and Jerad Eickoff 15th rd the names on this list that were available. 9 of those 16 were HS pitchers and 2 were Juco pitchers. Just a little reasoning why HS talents trump the College talents for me. I'd rarely select College types unless it's fairly unanimous the high ceiling. Giles was 1 of Juco's and Allen was a College draft choice. Eventual Elite Closers gotten in later rounds. Only Gerrit Cole and Sonny Gray as College selected Pitchers reached the top 18 in the draft rerank. -
BF.net 2016 Top 10 Community Mock Draft
brewcrewdue80 replied to Matt Breen's topic in MLB Draft & International Signings
He's not dropping any further. The Detroit Tigers select Corey Ray. Considered by a few to be best player now in the draft. The Tigers are very grateful to get a college bat so full on tools. With hope of quick arrival they'll likely advance Ray and be the first in this draft class to reach the Majors. Detroit with their owner have been in win now mode for quite awhile and picking who can advance the quickest suits that. -
So just read a MLB.com article. Groome has changed his commitment from Vandy to a Juco school in FL. It also said his camp is seeking minimum of 4million in a signing. I'll go find this little tidbit to get it straight. http://m.mlb.com/news/article/182564040/draft-buzz-what-callis-and-mayo-are-hearing Fwiw: the Brewers #5 pick comes with 4.3+million to work with. Oak at 6 just over 4million. So Groome is seeking top 6 in money. If he isn't selected by #6 would expect him not getting drafted at all. Since this move allows him to enter draft next year if he wanted.
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Lucroy Trades/Proposals (part 2)
brewcrewdue80 replied to Austin Tatious's topic in Transaction Rumors & Proposals
Currently in OPS by any catcher: Lucroy at .911. Salvador Perez at .807 and Buster Posey at .766 top 3 in baseball. Steven Vogt .737 is just above League avg of .731 and Jt Realmuto is just below at .729. Making the top 5 catchers in OPS. Yadier Molina at .680, Francisco Cerveli .660, Derek Norris .617 And that is it for qualified batters. Picking up Lucroy is improving a team 100% regardless if he slumps his numbers are that much better. It's fairly likely he's going to outperform the guy he's replacing by 3WAR just for half a season. 5+ for next season. He's at a class all his own. Put in perspective he's ahead of his MVP numbers in BA+Slg. equal OB. More triples already, but maybe explains the lesser doubles projection. Simply, he's playing to a top 5 MVP player in the NL. He is ahead of the two batters voted ahead of him in Stanton and McCutchen both hovering in .700s on OPS. and combined at .9WAR between the 2 of them...Lucroy is 2.1 currently. Buster Posey was a #7/9 ranked prospect when he got in the game. Age 29 and cost of 20mil this year. 21+ next 5years through age 34. Jon Lucroy age 30 4mil age 31 5.25mil. If you don't think he's worth a top 10 prospect I can't fathom him worth less than a top 20prospect in the game. You're looking at acquiring a MVP caliber player for 1.5 seasons at a position that offers only a handful of Catchers above league avg batting. The two directly below Lucroy are Perez+Posey locked in long term. Lucroy to Stephen Vogt is the gap we're talking in tradeable Catchers. He is the #1 batter out there to be had in a trade. Value, Production, and Position. It's not even close when it comes to the next position player the entire picture Lucroy provides. Name any batter close to Lucroy. -
I wouldn't exclude Cory Seager from that conversation. He just went on a 5HR in 3games tear. 2 of those HRs after the post. Villar happened to have 3HRs in this same week. Kinda Cancels out Seager's 3HR game. You're at a .300/.400 5HRs-20+SBs hitter vs .284/341 14HRs to 1SB hitter. Seager certainly has put his name in to the discussion but he's not in the Best discussion quite yet. Seager for his part should be putting up top of the NL SS numbers as he was what? #1 prospect in baseball heading in to season? Villar has a #94 pre2011 ranking to his credit. But he didn't carry it with him in 2012.
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Second this...with the Brewers rebuilding, I think a lottery pick at #5 like Groome or Pint is the way to go. I will be upset if we take Perez if for no other reason than the Brewers always seem to find hitting and will never be able to acquire impact pitching via FA. The draft is the only way they can truly rebuild the staff. If Groome or Pint don't pan out and Perez becomes the next Correa, then so be it. You go BPA regardless of position when in the midst of a rebuild. Then I'd expect Groome to be the BPA over Perez. He's probably BPA on many teams' overall boards.
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I really believe Lowe will go to Atlanta at #3. Because he's coming from a GA HS. He has helium building to be a top 12 pick and Atl's usual GA picks over the last few years just makes sense. They'll then use the money they save on the 40/44picks or as well on their 77/80 picks. Since you're not in agreement on a top 10 draftboard they just get the upside talent such as a Joey Wentz who falls due to signability and grab 4 guys who all fall in draft boards top 25-35 in a draft that lacks true star power to gamble on. What this means for Milwaukee is a certainty that 1 of Groome, Pint, and Perez will be there at #5. Looking forward to Thursday! Can't wait on the Brewers pick.
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Braun trade value now
brewcrewdue80 replied to proudsoftballdad's topic in Transaction Rumors & Proposals
Thompson somehow has a .900OPS for a guy who OPS'd .744 his last 1000+PAs in the minors. My apologies, but there's your definition of Overachievement. He has the numbers for a 4th OF, but not someone I'd entrust my everyday Starting OF job to for full seasons. I put down Yasiel Puig as a Money offset to rid his contract while adding Braun's. Cot's has him listed as less of a 2016-18 cost than BRef. but it comes with this caveat: Puig may opt in to Arb after 3 seasons of ML time. Which he should have accrued just recently. With his current performance, I don't know if he'd do that opt and if I'm the Brewers, and he did w/o returning value the rest of this season, wouldn't it mean they would be out on the remaining salary and can just not make him an offer? Granting Puig FA? According to Cot's Puig is owed 5.5/6.5/and 7.5mil on his contract. This vs BRef's: 7.214/8.214/and 9.214. I think since he signed 7years with 12mil signing bonus that would fit the difference between BRef and Cot's. Now does LA see dumping Puig as just that? Or, are they valuing Puig as a ML talent who deserves Minor League prospects in return on a trade? One of the story's immediately on a Puig Search is that Kershaw reportedly wants Puig traded-via Andy Van Slyke....Scott Van Slyke's father hint hint. How much do you take from LA in prospect return with Puig? Holmes fits the youth trade acquires over De Leon/Montas. So I'd assume he becomes the headliner. How many more after Holmes do you add? -
Here's Alex's fashion statement: Those Socks should make for perfect strike zone for the Ump. Maybe Presly had some poor calls and wants to show the umps where his Kneecap his and where below is? I like the look for that fact. You can say the strike zone is from above the socks to below you're jersey lettering above the belt.
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Braun trade value now
brewcrewdue80 replied to proudsoftballdad's topic in Transaction Rumors & Proposals
I'd say the market value for someone less than Braun was set 3? years ago. Shane Victorino signed a 3/39mil deal for the Red Sox. 13million a year was also given to a couple others I thought that offseason. But, to put Victorino in perspective He had under an .800 OPS record from his Philly days and put up just 1 season over .803OPS leading up to that contract that began for him age 32. It would appear Victorino grades a little higher than Braun Defensively but nowhere near where Braun can grade offensively. Braun's career average is 142OPS+ and he's at 155 this year. Victorino's Best year was just 130. A year before his contract. I'd say that contract is below what Braun is worth, but with the added years you can maybe say that is what may be seen as reasonable. 13-14million a year at the worst you would ask for Milwaukee to cover above. That would come to about 5mil per year, less this year's already paid. So we're back at about 20million to cover at the most, for the worst value that is from 2013 for a player Not up to Braun's league. He's just at such a higher level his Poor year in 14 still had a 113OPS+ And was worth 1WAR still while playing a new position for first time in his career. The decline with age thing would appear to me that he's still a solid player vs elite. As I said before, the Brewers need to kick in money, is likely being asked from the franchises who wouldn't pay someone, or multiple someones 18mil a year. Oakland/Tampa/Pittsburgh/Mets. And suddenly any trade involving Braun requires a compensation from Milw's side. I'm still hopeful on the Giants and honestly, a deal with the Giants, I can see a 3team trade out there for Milwaukee to get the prospect they need maybe. Tampa for instance. Sends us Brent Honeywell we send them Jeffress or Thornburg. San Fran send Tampa say Lucious Fox and to us Chris Shaw-1b and Sam Coonrod. I'd imagine Tampa should throw Milwaukee 1 more prospect maybe Richie Schaffer and you've suddenly put two 1b prospects for Milw in same deal and they can platoon with Schaffer being a backup 3b? But in Honeywell, Milw gets a better ranked SP than Beede or Bickford. That'd be fun for a trade. -
Clark is in A ball, Orimoloye is in rookie ball, Liriano was picked up off the waiver wire, Harrison is struggling badly in A ball. These players should not get in the way of us taking Ray. Would it be an exciting pick given where we're picking and what will likely be on the board? Probably not but saying we have guys who are in rookie ball and struggling in A ball or picked up off the waiver wire who could do that isn't really a reason not to take a player. I mean, we shouldn't take Delvin Perez because of Arcia and Villar using that logic. Except the difference is Ray is either turning 21 or is 21. Putting his bat right in the mix on Clark, ahead of the others. And Perez is still 17 come draft day. That's 4years-Sept/2019 the earliest one would expect Perez to reach ML. Plus Perez is premium position at SS, could be Super Utility. Villars team control will be up the next year? And that's if Milwaukee hasn't traded him away. Ray doesn't bring enough to the table to add to Milws minors on an area that's filled with prospects on the same time line as him. I'd be different if I thought he was BPA. A Ryan Braun appearance. But he's just reading a future Solid ML OF. Not Perennial AllStar. Harrison is still younger, Demi O. I don't get why he's not playing already. Deserves more to be in Brevard playing. Along with Clark, those three still have a higher ceiling if they figure it out. I'm just sure we'll regret taking him over one of the next 3picks more than likely than selecting anyone else and not selecting him.
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BF.net 2016 Top 10 Community Mock Draft
brewcrewdue80 replied to Matt Breen's topic in MLB Draft & International Signings
Guess nobody cares about SDs pick. I was thinking as I was driving, was senzel picked? So I'll adjust and with single vote make Corey Ray SDs pick. I think they are in on College bat, picked wrong guy. -
BF.net 2016 Top 10 Community Mock Draft
brewcrewdue80 replied to Matt Breen's topic in MLB Draft & International Signings
I'm about to get on the road. Obvious that Perez has won #7 pick. Will make my #8 choice. At #8. San Diego selects Nick Senzel. 3b Tennessee Looking as a need pick who potentially advances quicker to fill the need. -
The problem with that 20/20 type of OF in Ray is Milwaukee has Phillips, Trent Clark, Demi Orimoloye, and potentially Rymer Liriano and Monte Harrison that mold in near that 20/20. Maybe it'd be 15/25 or 25/15 but if 20/20 makes one excited viewing that there's a handful with that kind of excitement to develop. What does he really add to the Brewers Organization? Now say he was a 30HR or 30+SB guy with .300+BA, one could be okay with it. You can only play 3 OFs a game. You need 5 SPs, 3 of them to be good to give your team playoff hopes. 4 and 5 just adds to the likelihood. And if we switch gears and say well how about the defense? I don't read a Jason Hayward type of Defense projection. Just that he has the arm to play all 3. Another negative, personally is he's listed 5' 11". Would be the only one of that group of 5 under 6'. I'm telling you, height results in higher ceilings. 6' 3"-6'6" especially seems to be a magic spot in that regard. 6'7"+ has the awkward balance issues seem to begin. Delvin Perez is 6'3" currently. He could grow still. Milwaukee needs to continue with high ceiling choices and not solid floor/ceiling settles. They will always be behind in MLB payrolls. You hit on a few of these youngest with high ceilings together in a period this team can make a run for multiple seasons at a division title. Don't? well, bad results will result in high picks to keep churning on the upside choices. You trade away the ML pieces in the time you're building such an event.
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BF.net 2016 Top 10 Community Mock Draft
brewcrewdue80 replied to Matt Breen's topic in MLB Draft & International Signings
Since Oakland passed on him to my surprise. Miami takes Delvin Perez. With its 7th pick. -
Brewer pick from 2015 drowns - Donny Everett
brewcrewdue80 replied to jw5511986's topic in MLB Draft & International Signings
Wow that was a 1st round talent who was unsignable with his commitment. Quick search and it comes with him turning down reportedly 2.5mil from other teams so to play with Vandy. RIP

