brewcrewdue80

GP GS CG SHO IP H R ER HR BB SO W L 33 33 0 0 214.2 169 88 74 29 85 169 15 11 P/GS WHIP BAA ERA 94.1 1.18 .221 3.07 Here's ESPN's projection based on Nelson pitching to the numbers he's at for 33starts. 214IP at 3.07ERA is stats #2s put up. His BBs are about 20-24 too high and Ks about 30+ too low but that change makes him producing Ace numbers. If you think 214IP at 3.07ERA with 170Ks is #3 results, Then I wonder if you'd really call Bumgarner/Kershaw Aces. Bumgarner the last 2 seasons has gone 217/218 IP and a 2.93/2.98ERA Sure Ks were a 226 avg and bbs a 42 avg. But that's what I'm pointing at. If Nelson improves 1K more a Start and 1BB less a start he's posting Ace numbers similar to Bumgarner. That literally is the difference for Nelson between him and Bumgarner. He turns that extra BB in to a K he is a Bumgarner producing pitcher. Nelson's GB% is better than Bumgarner's on his career. LD% equal. HR/FB% 2% difference in career which MP vs SF home stadiums? That's impressive Can't believe Bumgarner is even at 9.3% to Nelson's 11.3. But go ahead tell me how Nelson is just a #3 SP performer vs #2. BABIP right? HRs isn't a Ball in Play to that stat. So when his HR/FB% comes back to norms and he's allowing base hits to raise that BABIP. That's better than giving up Run/s on a single swing of the bat.

Got it Reilly. So on to the next question...Who do the Brewer....ahh!! Saying whom will be #1 early should be allowed I'd assume. The simple answer is AJ Puk. #1 off the board for the Phillies. Reading that the Phillies draft board doesn't even contain Pint or Groome, seems this is a certainty. Only some prearranged deal with Perez who signs well below #1 pick value would be my best 2nd guess. The Brewers tie supposedly to Perez comes to a 4.382million slot value. Phillies at 9.015 for 1st pick say, "4.55mil we'll draft you" and he's likely accepting unless he's being approached by the 3 picks ahead of Milwaukee. That 4.4million savings means Philly can go after another top 10 talent. or 2 other top 15 talent. say a Joey Wentz/Cal Quantrill duo of guys that may value themselves top 10 and say aren't signing to teams who cant offer 3+million as the Phillies would be able to. But vote for me stands at AJ Puk. Safer pick than Pint or Groome, but still comes with the same or higher ceiling and quicker ascension to the ML team.

are you referring to Puk, Pint, Groome, and Perez? just wondering Yes. Though If I had to list them I'd be 1a Pint 1b Groome 3 Puk and 4 Perez. My preferential of HS over College.

Watched a few other Delvin Perez vids. So far everything is on the pull side on contact. One vid he hits a triple vid time would be about 12secs contact to slide in to 3b. I would think that is fast. The prospect primer link he ran 60 at 6.53sec. The podcast link eye black posted I think I heard them say he recently was timed at 6.2secs. He's young for this draft class at 6'3" The size and age are what I like. The only position player I said earlier I'd be okay with taking. Maybe the podcast and for sure #5 pick of the Brewers, compared to past known knowledge of Brewers plans, is a smokescreen for 1 of the other 4 teams to want to select him hearing the Brewers certainty. And one of the 3 SPs fall to Milwaukee when a team passes on Pint or Groome. I've read the Perez has a play at #1 much like Correa did for Houston, with Perez's non college commitment, he's a good under slot signing for Philly who then nabs a HS Arm that falls. What's tough to me is there are 4 players I'd want and we pick 5. So there's that 20% chance he won't be there. I just hope that the team doesn't select someone else with one of the 4 available to pick.

Dodgers will have ~69mil coming of the books after this season and another 50mil on Hendrick/Ethier/Crawford the season after that. Their OF prospects are listed ETA of 2018 and later. Braun would fit the lineup and OF deficiency while hardly handicapping the Dodgers in their future plans.

Oohhh I got Pena waived correct. Far earlier than anticipated. Carter is on pace for 49HRs atm. Nelson is on pace for 15wins! Davies has some work to do on those wins. About the time to say I want to be wrong on Walsh and see him go bye bye....Means he'll double up his hit total of 4 today to 8 and another month assurance on the team. FWIW, Jimmy Nelson has 3 hits. in over half the ABs. Or, 12 ML Pitchers have more Total Bases than Walsh, including Adam Wainwright's more than double at 11 in 17PAs to Walsh's 81. 4XBH ties Walsh's total hits. Heck, let's really embarrass. Combined with Maldonado's 2TB They have 7 combined a full HR behind Wainwright in 100(exact) more PAs! 8games to see the Cardinals, sadly w/o a Wainwright projected start. Should this continue would love to see the shaming comparison side to side.

The Dodgers have something like 85million of their salary to players Not on their team. You think they'll balk at Brauns puny 15million on aplayer who's .850+OPS when taking the field? they're over 40million below the payroll of last season. They've doled out the cash 4th season running to produce World Champions. Braun is an asset they can acquire early as Milwaukee just heading in to season are sellers. Waiting for another possible Elite OF #3 bat could take til deadline. Puigs failure as a hitter is dragging this team down. As what was a #2-4 batter, is sitting 7/8. Moving every poor hitter that was below him, up 1 in batting order.

That's talking 2inches. So instead of ground ball weak contact outs. Pitchers get to lob Batting Practice HR balls over the plate? Maybe the crappy swings he's watching. Balls practically in the dirt being swung at? To him it must be embarrassing and with a ball having to travel 2 inches higher these poor swinging hitters start laying off those pitches? Remember, there's Expansion talk which will mean diluting the bats that are already disappearing. If they move the strike zone higher I hope the umps give the corner strikes an extra inch each side. I feel like the Pitchers will be hurt by this change.

Link I found. More about the #1 pick forthcoming than Brewers pick. More info on how to mock the #1 pick next week http://www.nj.com/sports/index.ssf/2016/05/2016_mlb_draft_jason_groome_phillies_braves.html The 2014 HS picks Aiken/Kolek likely have some to do on not taking the risk for Philly.

.364 .429 .576 1.004 Says Hello. The Dodgers would appear very welcome to that bat in their lineup. Their #3 hitter has often been Justin Turner with his .636OPS and lately Corey Seager who's in his sophomore year at SS and at least bringing an .800+OPS in that spot. But he was #2 and Turner now resides there. Meanwhile a 37yr old Chase Utley is magically maintaining an .800+ OPS in the leadoff to date. That is what the Dodgers are giving Adrian Gonzalez to work with in front of his bat. AGon has batted 3rd but generally that put Turner as cleanup! Yikes. As a team they are just below ML average for runs scored and possess a .696OPS as a team. .728 ML avg. Current LF is the hott bat of Trayce Thompson who's at .898OPS for a career .747OPS minors record. In a Pitchers ballpark, he's obviously outperforming expectations and with just 77Games to his belt, teams will make adjustments here shortly and knock him back down a peg or two. Carl Crawford is regrettably still on the team at 21.7mil cost and batting paltry .518OPS in what has been a trend down in lower .700s. Last is Enrique Hernandez. a 2b minors guy generally turned to OF at .598OPS with a .722 career Minors OPS. Probably performing to expectations. You also have Yasiel Puig a RF at .648OPS and batted 7th/8th in 8 of last 10games a move down in the order since he's continuing a trend being worse than the season before. He'll make roughly 2/17.5mil after this season. The Dodgers have arms. Their top 4 and 7 of 10 prospects are Pitchers. Boasting the best SP in Baseball with Best SP prospect in baseball, one would believe they could expend a few prospects for a desperately needed #3 batter. You say give them some payroll to increase the return? well, how about taking Puig in the deal. There's your 17.5mil+remainder this season. Obviously, no Urias for a return. But any core of their prospects behind him would be certainly enough to get back the value for Braun. There are lots to pick from. Holmes, Verdugo, and Buehler would be a talented get. Maybe that's too much to ask but what if you threw in Jeffress and got Cody Bellinger in return? Sorta like the Gomez kick in Fiers trade? No trade clause isn't an issue with the Dodgers not being on his list. LA is 1-3 in the Playoffs the last 3years and missing the playoffs the previous 3. Payroll went from 103/95mil to over 200mil. 272 last year and 223 currently this year. You're looking at 900+million for 4 seasons of what may be 1 Playoff series win. There has to be some desperation to win a Playoff series this season besides just making the playoffs. (Currently 2GB of wild card) Well?

Your Mock 2.0. 5 clicks to read Brewers #5 pick. You use the same bland draft photo at top of the page. Then it's: 1. pick small paragraph blurb on choice. Click 2. That same picture just above. The selection, paragraph blurb. Click 3...yadi yada yada. If you can't provide pics of the players or any video. Why must you force your webpage viewer to have to click pick vs pick? With such little amount of content you should be listing several picks on 1 page. At least 5 if not 10 selections, if not the whole first round. I click next 2 or 3 times to read an article and with the loading of the webpage constant over and over. That 4th click is usually the X button closing the website. The only reason I even read to the 5th click for Brewers was because you had Pint as mocked and I wanted to read the blurb. Had you had an OF I'd not gone more than the 2nd click. Just some criticism.

Oh God, this just kills me. Here you go: 6. Athletics: Jason Groome, LHP, Barnegat (N.J.) HS There's a lot of Senzel-to-Oakland talk if he's available, though that doesn't make a ton of sense for a so-so system with a lot of infielders (including 2014 first-rounder Matt Chapman, who's not moving off the hot corner) and not much else. The A's like Groome more than Pint, and it's hard to believe a big lefty with quality stuff and more polish than Puk is going to drop much further than this. These Mock guys are killing me. So at 6, Oakland takes SP because being linked to an IF is redundant among their minor system. Having spent a 1st rd choice in 2014. So Trent Clark's 1st round choice...LAST Year! or Demi O in the 4th round and after Monte Harrison in 2014 don't make an OF selection overloading within the Brewer's pick? How is this ignored by these guys? Do they see the Brewers farm system as secretly deep and Talented in Pitching arms full of Ace potentials? I just don't get Santana,Phillips pretty much ML certaintys. Clark off and running in A ball already. Probably the two Most athletic OFs in the last two drafts Orimoloye and Harrison in the system. I mean this is MLB's Callis and MLB has 7 of the top 20 ranked prospects as OFs within the system. You know whoever is picked will slot in top 10 among Brewers Prospects. Guess the League will switch to no Pitchers and put the ball on a tee and we need 6 OFs now to 3 infielders? Maybe since the Brewers don't normally put more than 1 SP in top 100 prospect ranks, having 2 currently, we may crash the prospect rankings if 3 were to be ranked in top 100 and all hell breaks loose

Nelson if traded this year is a 500k 4.5years of team control remaining SP producing today. Devers is in A ball. Nelson is on his way to 200+IP with that 4years of team control beyond this season. Under 1mil cost. Nelson has a more of a sure thing than Devers like Kopech/Ball. Benintendi is only player that appears to have the ML level future guarantee. The other 3 are wildcards. Nelson isn't. Boston if trading to win in next 3years are better off with Nelson than waiting on these 4 who maybe have 100games total at the ML level to that point. You say he hasn't improved on peripherals. But his Hits/9 have decreased. He's avg 6.5IP a start vs 5.9IP a start. While maintaining the other peripherals vs getting worse. So he's improving and certainly gaining on a #2 type of starter with them in his 2nd full year as a SP. Money+Production=serious return in trade.

There's a part about Fip that generally sends some disbeliefs in accuracy. You see numbers and certain affects it seems. HRs and Ks. Lower ERA but Higher HR/lower than 8 K rate? Fip jumps. Low HR/high K Fip is lower. Pitching in launching pad that is MP gives me some I don't really believe this Fip number if he's pitching in LA or SD type of ballparks. Junior Guerra's numbers prior to today are fairly close to Nelson. 3.2Fip 1HR allowed. I'll be interested to see where his Fip goes after another HR given up but 11ks today. Nelson pitching to 7.1hits/9 is impressive. Any starter that doesn't give up 8.5+ to me depending on BB/9 stands to be better than a Peralta who's 9.7+ on his career. Johnny Cueto in 2014 had a 3.3Fip to a 2.25ERA. 22HRs but 6.2hit/9 2013 3.81Fip to 2.82ERA (60IP/ 7HRs) 6.8hits/9. 2012 3.21Fip to 2.78ERA 15HRs but 8.5hits/9 Less HRs and Ks/9 but higher Hits and the closest his ERA resembled Fip. Nelson keeps producing under 8hits/9 he will outproduce his Fip continually. Half a year of Cueto netted Brandon Finnegan, Cody Redd, and John Lamb. 3 SPs. A trade of Nelson had better beat that if I'm even considering a trade of him. Mentioned Red Sox. Devers, Benintendi, Kopech, and Trey Ball would be my asking.

I get that were looking at only a 30% chance of 10+WAR for Pitchers. But at the same time the general overall rate for 1st rd picks to reach the ML level is under 50% I believe. So many aspects to consider. Pre Money Allotments. Teams like the Rays, Pittsburgh, and Brewers weren't going to put up the asked money amount for certain players so you draft what you can sign. Brazelton had 1.125mil for his rookie year appearance on Rays. Also, it's not that the talent isn't there, it's usually a result of arm injuries that keep the Pitchers from performing. Hultzen was so much prized and he can't make a roster due to injuries. Mark Prior was certainly on his way to 20+WAR. Injured. So it's tough to put down a bunch of these picks as being terrible when injuries deteriorate their talent potential at draft day. Covey is currently the A's #15 prospect and now doing fairly well in AA. I realize not part of this top 10 list but he's a blackmark on here on HS pitcher picks. Like it was a terrible choice. He still has a future to make it in the Bigs. And that will make the Brewers picking of him more assuring. If you put the same top 10 graph for Position players the rate overall probably doesn't improve much. Especially the 20+WAR players sans 2005draft which may be best ever this decade on position player WAR. Mccutchen was 11, Bruce 12. Only the Catcher didn't produce over 9WAR and 7/9 15+WAR in top 12. I'll take the BPA Pitcher at #5 on the Brewers draft board. Even if they have Perez or Lewis or Ray 1 spot ahead of them. Team needs to luck in to one of those 20+WAR SPs.

So how did Zach Grienke(6th selection 48.4WAR) the Ace and I know Jacob Turner(9th selection -.5WAR) has sporadic playing time....Omitted?

Agreed. Russell is Mr Clutch late in games I read. Set up double play. Ouch.

Add Thornburg to that! Kman tonight

I hope Thornburg brings the Ks tonight and not the flyballs.

Astros happened to have superior arms vs those three coming up or recently joined its team. We've got none coming currently that appear to even match Nelson much less be superior to him. Now, trading Santana would be similar to what Houston was able to do with pitching. At least 3-half dozen can equal or better Santanas talent.

If we are going to talk about trading Jimmy Nelson, then why not talk about trading Santana. Arcia even. We only know how to rebuild but not how to maintain players to see it through?

Well, shoot. He is who we thought he'd be. Good for him to continue hitting HRs up to 11. OPS+101 WAR thus far 0.3 Probably turned positive after this 3HR 6RBI game. Not going to lose sleep on the trade. A far higher ceiling player in Santana needed a spot in the OF. Brewers received a legit Catcher and what may become a late innings relief or solid #3-4SP. While providing Santana room to grow. What Davis is doing is increasing his forthcoming salary while still having a value of 0-2WAR player. The increase in pay he will command will be to an amount where he ends up being non-tendered. unless he starts providing Avg/OB to go with the slg.

Not going to lie, but this is probably the best pitcher after Hendriks to face for a Nelson start. Crew could start series 2-0 on Cubs!

What are the reasons to keep him in the minors? There is the argument that he hasn't been efficient and needs to work on going farther into games. However we all know the real and only reason he is(almost surely) going to be in the minors till September at the earliest. To save a year of service time and avoid Super Two service time. I could see the argument if this team looked like it could compete next year(or heck even 2018), but we are not. We can afford to hold him another year and then get him that MLB experience. The problem is we aren't going to compete in the near future so rushing him is unnecessary. I would love to see him this year so he can start gaining that experience, but losing a year of control for it? Maybe not. Or you could say limiting to less to 90pitches in all of his starts doesn't allow him to pitch deeper in games. Maybe part of that comes with limiting his Innings so he can Start more games throughout the season. Any date later in June he'll be far past Super 2 potential. Waiting to Sept is about when one would expect he'd approach 150IP. Somewhere along the lines where you'd begin to want to limit his Innings or shut him down. He was allowed 3 games of 90+ pitches last season. 5IP 1ER 10ks, 7IP 3ER 6Ks, 7IP 3ER 8Ks. He was shut down after his following start the first week of September. Hasn't allowed more than 3runs in last 13starts. and 1 4runs in last 19starts. You can always hold him down some starts early in 2017 especially if his first few don't go the way you'd like. In that instance Colorado will benefit holding him down as likely a bloated ERA to say we believe he's not ready to call up. I want to see some of the future play and have a clue on what 2017 will bring. Not go in to 2017 and Hader/Arcia/Phillips and even Reed haven't logged in any ML appearances to know what one can expect in growth or even production. Forcing them to wait another year likely forces their production to wait another year. Get games 2016. Sophomore slump 2017. Studs 2018. Get games 2017...well slump 2018. studs 2019. Either or on any of the team control will come with Post Super 2 on these 3. I can't fathom Arcia being in AAA all season and then til Mid-June next season. You play them in September, means sitting them in to July to reach that post Super 2. As it stands payroll for the Brewers in 2years will be what? 41million? Team isn't going to go out there and sign 20+million contracts on the Free Agent Market. But extending these guys IF they perform to 10-17mil whatever the value is beyond the team control shouldn't hurt this team for 10years.

I found game was thinking of. Aug 7th 2012. Vs Cincy. Fiers Perfect game through 6. Lead batter 7th doubles. Scores on B2B flyball outs. Fiers give up 2singles in 8th. Henderson save for 9th.