brewcrewdue80

1.5 Seasons of an Ace in Samardzija. Oakland dealt his final year to the White Sox for Marcus Semien maybe others. It's not that Peralta's stuff isn't on par with Samardzija it's that he's far cheaper and has 2 more full seasons of team control over Samardzija. Peralta is also off to a better starting career for his age compared to Samardzija. It took him til he was 28 before he reached 30+ starts in a season. Something Peralta has done twice now at the age of 25. I talk down Peralta about his background numbers, but I'm also going to talk him up about his durability and still quality outings he provides. He pitches in a known hitters ballpark with far less than stellar defense behind him for a groundball pitcher. Moving him to LA to pitch, he's going to have better numbers just based on the home park alone. There's a lot to like about Peralta, I like him, but also don't see him as progressing to the Top of the Rotation level for a SP anymore due to his lack of Ks. He's at 6.6K/9 for his career. If he were 7.8 and above literally just a little more than 1k per 9 he'd be a legit #2 borderline #1. He's that close and I think very well worthy of asking for Corey Seager. You may have to add another player while getting another prospect back in return...like Jason Hammel was in the Samardzija deal, but to me to get Seager is worth it. I put in the another post, I'd add Luis Sardinas ask for Chris Anderson and Zach Lee in return. Put the motion in to place to extend Segura to play 2b after the season and Arcia will be SS long term. You literally may have your #1,2,3 hitters Arcia, Segura, Seager for the next 6-7seasons.

Exactly why I don't like trading with San Diego. Look, yes Hedges has a great potential for a Catcher. But that's just it, he's a Catcher. What's the going rate on Catcher's Health? The Mets lucked in to Travis D'Naud a top 5 Prospect at the time. Most of a season lost to a broken leg. Now another injury that going to have him hurt for awhile. How's Lucroy's health? For all the love of him, he's put together 2 full seasons out of 5. Only 1 with 600+PAs. You're looking to acquire a Catcher who likely at best will average 135games over 4seasons. Or missing over 100games due to just rest in 4seasons....At Best. What if Hedges requires a Platoon mate because he OPS' .450 on one side? He's Right Handed not Lefty. That's not good. The list of All Time Catchers to have an OPS of .800+ in their careers is at 34. 34 all time. 6 of them have less than 10WAR for their careers. To make the top 30 All time at Catcher you just accumulate 31.2WAR. Add to it 14 of these 30 Catchers had time spent using the DH-such as Victor Martinez. Even the current legit and great Buster Posey has played 25% of his games at 1b starting. I'm just not a fan of acquiring Catchers when they most likely wont give you a 3WAR season or better and kicked to the curb catchers such as AJ Ellis who's never made more than 5mil in a season can post a 3.4WAR and 2.3WAR b2b years while basically being worth 1WAR the rest of his career. These types are all over and on a down year you get -1WAR from them. on a Good year you get 3WAR from them. Matt Wieters, superstar Prospect catcher. 1 stand out season of about 5WAR. One at 3.5. the other 4 none above 2.6WAR. Gimme an everyday player or a Top of the Rotation Starting pitcher before you give me a highly ranked Catcher. I don't need to future of the Brewers to be a major letdown or flameout. This goes for acquiring Blake Swihart who actually has the offensive numbers to want to put in your lineup. Again, for a NL team, you're likely staring at 135 games per season missing 17% of the season due to needing rest or health recovery after taking a foul ball off the chin/knee/groin/foot see Yadier Molina. Considered best catcher of the generation he's never appeared in more than 140 games. Wasn't until his 9th season he had more than 3.1WAR for his team and only done that twice. I just don't believe a Catcher should ever be sought after for the future. For In Season run at the Playoffs, yes certainly. but a prospect hoping they are a core to your future? It's a terrible idea.

Someone laughed at me at Seager for Peralta. Any trade offer for Urias is far more laughable. He's the #1 SP pitcher prospect in all of the Minors. It'd be like asking for Kris Bryant for Lucroy and Garza before the season began. The Dodgers are filled with hitters/hitting, they acquire Lucroy so they can bat him 7th or 8th? I feel the target to get what you want is to offer up SP and the only name to offer is Peralta. Lohse or Garza do them no good not for any kind of respectable prospects to send Milw's way. Now, turn Garza in to the SP before the Trade deadline when while he was with the Cubs the rest of his starts to the deadline and we may get something back for him. Here's another option. Getting back a good prospect if you really tear down the club. Take on Ethiers' or Crawford's contract.

Well, while Lohse's value is getting less, ARam with his 2nd HR in the month being of the slow starter to a season type must be rising.

Just over a month away from the draft and it's such a crapshoot right now. Daz Cameron almost feels like the Brewers pick the way he's falling due to Milw's penchant of picking player's sons in the past. And this one would be a former player's son. Didn't think a month ago he'd be around after the top 10 and it's especially crazy considering the top pitchers being injured he's fallen in ranks. Problem is he'd be what sounds like another Tyrone Taylor with slight more upside? One that the Brewers already drafted it seems in Harrison. Based on the perception of the draft class, you would think you could draft more on need getting equal talent potential. So it'd seem foolish to me to pick a CF/corner OF due to what's coming up to the Major League Roster. Here's something to consider. The Aiken/Matuella/Allard/Kirby injury riddled group or former top 10 SPs. It's a lost season, there are going to be trades made for prospects. This would be the kind of time to take on a Brady Aiken/Matuella pitching upside talent vs grabbing a healthy but not as high an upside type player. Now I've voiced my concerns about taking Aiken but at #15 where the Brewers select considering where their franchise is. How would you pass on not taking a former #1 pick talent? Of course you have the Kodi Medeiros pick. One where his showcase to Milw a short time before draft day, that propelled them to select him. His performance was "Fresh" in their minds that these 4 mentioned wont have the privilege of doing. So there could be that player taken when faced with the dilemma. And also we don't have Seid its not Montgomery so that showcase scenario may not matter if an Aiken/Matuella falls to them. At this point, I see no way of predicting who the Brewers will pick since obviously previously higher ranked players are injured and likely to fall to them. It will be one of those things you wonder, watch Aiken or Matuella fall all the way to the Lardinals and Magically they turn in to Cy Young pitchers whose injuries don't impact them. Would you want to be around 3 or 4 seasons from now and be asked that question, how did you pass up a Brady Aiken/Mike Matuella and select a Chris Betts?

1. The Padres still have THREE Top 100 prospects...how is that nothing? 2. Thanks for the good laugh...Seager for Peralta? Are you serious? Padres only have 2...Turner is already the PTBNL headed to Atlanta I believe after the draft. Renfroe or Hedges. I don't believe the team needs to build in trade for a Catcher that leaves Renfroe. An OF Something Milw has a bunch of prospects with a Braun contract holding down 1 of the spots. I just don't feel Renfroe who's batting .188 with 23k in 69ABs 33% is of the prospect mold to guarantee results. More like Flameout potential and I'm not taking that risk. Seager for Peralta...am I serious? Well yeah if they'll listen to it. I mentioned how to sweeten the pot if need be to acquire him. The argument is being made to keep Peralta as a core piece. So why wouldn't the Dodgers consider acquiring that type of SP considering their fails they've had yearly? Seems like every #3-5 SP they have goes through DL stints some 60day+. If Peralta is the 30+ Start pitcher young rubber arm, that would solve a huge problem for them and it'd be a lot cheaper than their Brett Anderson/Bradon McCarthy of this year...Josh Beckett/Chad Billingsley of the past. Are the Dodgers trying to win the WS this year considering Rollins/Uribe/Kendrick/Anderson are FAs to be when the season is over? McCarthy is out maybe for the season. Theres a need for a SP in that rotation. You're failing to recall they are losing Seager for 6years of team control while gaining Peralta for 3.4+years of control. This isn't a rental trade idea.

Reilly only problem you have is you gave Gomez to Toronto who has Dalton Pompey for that position. I don't think Toronto would look to deal for Gomez. Alex Meyer for Minnesota. That would happen in the offseason I guess? Because Minnesota isn't a playoff caliber team at this moment to add on a SP for this year. And I'm thinking Alex Meyer is ready for the club in 2016. Here's part of the problem for Milw. Losing teams with the best prospects to ask to acquire like Minnesota or Philly or Houston. Top prospects within the division to ask for: Cubs/Pirates. Teams that made trades this offseason no longer have the prospects to ask for(like San Diego or Miami) And teams that received the good prospects are rebuilding like Tampa/Atlanta. You browse around a top 100 prospect list and there are many that actually graduated to the big club and a big part of that team being playoff types that you're not going to get them in return:Joc Pederson, Kris Bryant, Archie Bradley, Carlos Rodon, Norris, Michael Taylor, Pompey, and Realmuto etc. You get down to having to either hit the HRs like the Seager deal, or very well likely taking a team's #1/#2 prospect that barely sits in the top 100 and has more flameout potential than core piece potential. And that is why I suggest Peralta to LA for Seager. Do what it takes to get the HR prospect. Peralta isn't a HR SP but quality nonetheless. He's not Zack Greinke or Clayton Kershaw, or Matt Harvey type. Those clamoring that he needs to be kept need to remember that. He's essentially another Yovani Gallardo at best. Now if we can take that and get a Corey Seager who would be more like getting an Evan Longoria. Who would you rather have? Longoria to build around or Gallardo?

Yes 17-11 and a 3.5ERA is a very nice looking stat. But the numbers for him behind the scenes aren't as glowing. His Fip, the low K/Rate, according to Fangraphs his velocity is down over 1MPH. His career ERA is 3.9. The argument for trading him is on the notion that the Brewers won't be winning in '15, '16, and doubtfully in '17. Brewers control him through the 2018 season. So now you're staring at maybe the season Milw begins winning with the new core, he's going to be leaving for FA that season immediately after and the Brewers get nothing back in return except maybe a draft pick that does nothing to help the team for 3+seasons. So, you make him available in trade. Argue on his 2nd half stats and Sept stats, plus his 30+Starts ability, and his upside and demand a very quality return in prospects. He's Proven, cheap and still under team control for 3 more seasons. I wonder if the Brewers could ask for Corey Seager in trade? They seem to have issues at pitching every year and Peralta's 30+ starts ability and being cheap, would be worthy to consider him. The team solves it's 3b question of the future and he's likely a Core member to build around. And that's why you would do it. Edit add: I can see arguments made for not trading Seager...Rollins/Uribe last years of contract. Dodgers have Guerrero to play 3b they'll need a SS(Seager's future for them) Send them Sardinas. Ask for Chris Anderson(SP type like Peralta) and Zach Lee. Lee becomes a Brewers back end starter immediately to fill in for Peralta(likely poorly but someone has to eat innings) The club has solved its Middle infield by trading away Peralta's soon to rise cost in arb. They go out and extend Segura. Move him to 2b and Arcia plays SS. You have 2b, SS, 3B covered with hopefully a solid contributing SP in Anderson in another year.

Lucroy for Julio Urias. I don't think a Zack Greinke type SP would net Julio Urias. I mean literally the kid isn't going to be traded. The Dodgers already have the one pitcher you'd consider trading him for in Kershaw. He's the #1 Pitching prospect in baseball at the moment. I think you could offer Lucroy and Gomez for Crawford and Urias and the Dodgers are hanging up the phone.

New core. The new core has failed. Point blank. There isn't one. The Wily Peralta era hasn't taken shape, nor Tyler Thornburg. Scooter Gennett, Khris Davis arent appearing to be part of the new core. This 25man roster is a failure. There isn't a core to build around except Jimmy Nelson. That's it. Peralta is entering Arb controlled years, you can't build a core around that when he's going to be gone due to what his pay commands are after 3years. Lucroy is too old. Will Smith may be an addition but he's a Lefty RP who has above avg splits vs Leftys and below avg vs righties. Again, can you build around him for 3more years? vs trading him off to a Playoff contender and the prospect he gets in return more likely? Oh yeah Segura. Well, Sardinas and Arcia pretty much take care of him. Another if the core is barren/practically empty why hang on to someone who has 3years left with the team vs trading him and getting a more likely piece to build a core around? It's Nelson and Braun and the rest are Minor Leaguers that are going to have to perform when they graduate to get in to core consideration. Can likely add Corey Knebel as a core piece but I don't want to predict his for sure success, when a Pitcher like Wily Peralta hasn't performed for his expectation of success. It's the perfect season for a complete tear down/rebuild..or sell off of everyone on the ML roster. A good Owner/GM will have 15 if not 18 of the current 25 man gone by season's end. May as well introduce the SPs in AAA Jungmann, Lopez and whomever else as they aren't core pieces themselves. So it's not like the service clock has to be considered in promoting them too early.

This is just bad. This will be 20games in to the season and if the score finished this way the Brewers are getting almost outscored 2-1. 57runs scored to 111 given up. And 17 of these games are vs the division. The team is 3games behind the next worst team in the League and 8 games out of the 5th playoff team already. I just. Cant take the ineptitude of this team. To not pitch or bat or stay healthy. They have every single facet of the game covered that is doom for a team. Not just one area that may spell doom like Wainwright's season ending injury for StL, but literally, Batting, fielding, running, pitching, relief pitching, avoiding injuries to star players, age decline All of it. Oh and with this loss we're looking at. Last 2months of ML baseball vs the Division the team has gone 10-28. .263% Outscored 168-106 avg 4.42-2.79 How much bigger a sample size do we need before managers are just canned for this? Don't care whatsoever who's hired to replace, they are all interim for the rest of the season. But its more than time for a change.

But my point is that they shouldn't have these guys. What's the point? Honestly.. what is the point of these players being in the league? There are many better options to have on your roster and it just makes zero sense to me. It's almost like they are saying, screw it, we'll pay some crap guy league minimum to be on our roster. Read above your post...JohnBriggs said why. Defense. I'm with you though, I think the Pinch Hitter role...especially in the NL requires more of an Offensive apt player than the defensive Backup. Maybe it's the idea that defense won't diminish if a player doesn't see playing time vs the offensive player? We could have Matt Clark up to bat. But, him seeing 5PAs in a week, will that stunt his offensive potential? Then you probably look at a .500 team and figure 50% of the games won that the pinch-hitter plays in, his bat doesn't matter in the outcome. So you're looking at 81PAs on the season where it does. Whereas, Schafer can pinch hit lousily in the 7th inning, stay in the game for the next 6-9outs and provide the higher defensive output. Of course that has it's limitations. A pitcher Ks batters, not needed. Ground balls in the infield, not needed. It's the amount of flyouts then that would account for potentially Schafer's defense. 35% or 1out an inning? approximately? Then it's situation specific. What if that flyball was with 2outs nobody on in a 3run lead game? Hey Schafer makes the play that Davis or Braun wouldn't be able to. But how much of an effect does it really have on the outcome? I'd just rather save my best pinch-hitter to use in the best pinch-hitter needed situations. Team needs a run down 1. Runners on 1st+3rd base 1out. A long flyball scores the run...Vs Schafer's weaker hitting ability leading to more concern of the inning ending double play. You as a manager can control that 25th man's effectiveness imo if he's a bat first player vs the defense first player. But stats/sabrematrics or whatever must show my opinion to be wrong and that the defensive players adds more value to the backup role. Providing reasons why MLB rosters are filled with these types.

April 27, 2015, 10:17 AM Apparently.

Considering the Braun bashing due to his start, Segura's value right now for a prospect after his start must be worth a top 25prospect right? Former 40s ranked prospect when the Brewers acquired him, proving he's a legit Major League SS and not a prospect?... Or am I reading too much in to his 1month of stats start? Anyway. I'm sticking with my opinion the Padres don't have the proper prospect value to get in return. Hedges included. There would need to be a 3rd team involved...taking Lohse or Garza? What did Dee Gordon/Dan Haren net LA? Andrew Heiney+? I'll go look and edit this...

Here's the other thing about the contract. The money in baseball. Compare his amount to the team payroll of 105mil roughly today. I'm pretty sure when the new broadcast deal nationally came out it was said about 20-25mil more spread across each team. Would kinda make 120mil the teams payroll max threshold. Add inflation lets just say 4%. Starting from last year doing math off the top of my head:2015-124.8 2016: 129.7 2017: 133.8 2018: 139.1 2019: 144.7 2020: 150.5 And that's projecting Milws payroll limits...a small market probably 23rd-25th or about 22teams who can take on higher. Top market teams will be avg 10mil per player on their 25man. 15mil won't be a worst contract in franchise just because of all the money thrust in to the sport.

Perhaps pitchers have been going more for ground balls? I think the Brewers have had their staff do that - and it was discussed somewhere here. I may know part of what you're implying on the Brewers staff. There was a post I think in the Draft subject of the Brewers Pitchers being taught a lean/tilt for a follow through. That it creates more downward motion but less lateral/sideways movement. Something like that, part of it is to create more ground balls, the other part is to help in location if I recall. the Less sideways movement meant less variance to miss the strike zone. Now is that what is happening all across baseball? Or just the Brewers pitching style? I think it's funny the comment above about Expansion thinning out the quality pitching and bringing back hitting. Expansion also thins out a team's quality hitting.....I think the pitchers would be more dominant with expansion vs less.

See, here's the problem. You're calling the contract terrible and asking a hypothetical question on Today's Braun if someone would give him that contract. It's not the offseason we're less than 20games in to a season, it's great you're picking a current time to win your side of the argument and suggesting the Board would go crazy about that contract being handed out. You mention the WAR being 1 or less. It wasn't on the account of his bat though which was quite well above replacement. It was on his defense, an OF spot he hadn't played in a season previously mind you and that dragged his WAR down. Now will Braun be the best defender? No but he can at least be a respectable avg that has no impact on his WAR and the offense instead is what dictates how high a WAR he'll get. To pound on Braun at this juncture and conclude he's forever done; doom and gloom; when so many SuperStars are off to equally terrible starts doesn't stick right for me. Just a list of Batters Under .200 right now: Chase Utley, Evan Gattis, Jose Bautista, Daniel Murphy, Jay Bruce, Michael Bourn, Russell Martin, ANDREW MCCUTCHEN(guess he's done) Adrian Beltre, Jimmy Rollins, Edwin Encarnacion, Albert Pujols, Mookie Betts, David Ortiz, Carlos Gonzalez All those names under .200 on the season, Braun not one of them. Yes he's not hitting for XBH aside from 1 HR which gives him an OPS in the bottom 30 (28th worst) in Baseball. But it's early, he's hit balls to the warning track for outs. This is a better topic to talk about when the AS break hits not the first drury month of the season almost all of Milw is having....It's just perfect timing right now for the side to argue Braun's Future contract can be the worst in franchise history due to the recent numbers he's having and pulling that it is what he's going to amount to from here on out because the past numbers MUST be thrown away due to the PED history.

How do you create an over/under for that? Percent? well .01 to 99.99% vs the other is all the same. Either it'll happen or it wont. How about the next pitcher Marco Gonsales I think being better than Peralta though? The Brewers prized SP callup at the moment. Edit just looked him up on fantasy Gonsales was just put on 7day DL in minors. Hmm Wonder who they turn to then? Looking at their 40man it can only be Tyler Lyons w/o removing a name to add a prospect. That or Carlos Villanueva who obviously wont be Cy Young. So no chance the individual who replaces Wainwright is the 2nd coming of Cy Young

There already was a thread for this topic.

No we can lose 100games. How about this idea. Melvin knows he's on the hott seat. After Roenicke is let go. who takes over that hott seat? It likely doesn't happen until Mark A grows a pair and dumps Melvin first.

Rush to Judgement it seems. He hasn't even reached the contract extension and it's being considered the worst ever? How about things of the past in giving out the contract. A superior ballplayer. A team who was just about to lose Fielder. A team that had lost out on a CC Sabathia FA pick that instead of 25 was given 39. This was a player who was commanding less than what Fielder was for an extension. A face of the Franchise. This is before Qualifying Offers. There was nothing that would make it appear like it was a poor contract given. 2011 happened. Then 2012 did that would make one think he was fine. They were MVP type seasons. Even now the deal is for under 20mil per year and when you look around teams like the Yankees have have 5...20% of their team making more than that per year. It was a contract handed out to a MVP player for less than what the future going rate is. Heck when his contract is over, I imagine the Qualifying offer(if there's still one) will be for more than what Braun is making! And that's based on a top 75 pay avg! Legitimately Braun was top 5 in all of Baseball when the extension was written. It's not the worst contract in Franchise history at all.

Wonder if Wainwright will kick the Brewers while they are down and find a way to hit Segura. Or Lind. But he doesn't hit players on purpose nor do the Cardinals right?

Such Garza hate bashing. Was he terrible last season? He had a 3.64ERA with a few games Relievers let him down in giving up runs when he had the lead to give him the loss instead. And that includes having a .1 5ER start last season. Take away that 1 bad start he had a 3.37ERA over 26starts. You go to Fangraphs and his velocity is around the same...tick up on slider, tick down on changeup. He's not locating as well and for what it's worth, batters are having quite the rise in both out of the zone swinging contact as well as in the zone. Garza's GB percentage is up which is a positive, while his HR/FB rate is high. These are all signs that are likely to see his numbers improve as they fall back to the norms. I've never gotten the ill refute towards Garza. I think it was a fantastic signing for the team. They got him for so cheap. 4/50mil vs a Ricky Nolasco signing of 4/49mil who's provided the Twins with a 5.66ERA in 28starts and 162IP to this point and is on the DL now. Garza's performance was pegged by Fangraphs as being worth 19.6mil last season +7mil in value his first year. He's faced 3 playoff worthy teams in 4 starts thus far. Been given 9runs total of support. Now Zack Greinke is being paid about 27mil in avg terms this season...(20mil last) He provided 32.8mil in value for the Dodgers. The Brewers cannot afford that type of pitcher. So what exactly are people expecting from Garza? Keep in mind he's in a Hitter's ballpark in mostly a hitter's division, unlike Greinke today. And here we sit mind you with a Red Sox story mentioning trading Brock Holt to acquire Garza. A Pre Arb type player the team could get in return if true. The future of the team stands to be better because of the Garza signing and he's still performing well for his contract given vs a Nolasco deal. It's a win/win situation for Milw and Garza. I won't be sick of him til he turns in to a Ricky Nolasco performances. Be a Fan.

4th OF bench bat at 5mil per vs Schafer to me is worth it. But the trade is over and probably something that the Angels GM just called the Rangers' GM and said what would it take for you to take Hamilton back and off my hands. He said 75mil and no prospects and he said. Done. Thanks. Never spoke with any other clubs. So not going to think Milw missed an opportunity here. It must be nice to just offload 75mil as a writeoff of the team's payroll like that. That's 2 legit All-Star players for Milw's history to expensively be had on their team. Or to say Lohse/Garza. Gomez/Lohse. Gomez/Garza. Just take them off the team and how bad would the Brewers be? You can't replace them with nothing but your minor league players.

There's no reason for Washington to take Lohse they have a better starting 5....Now, if one would go down for the season. There's the opening.