brewcrewdue80

Bolded part would miss my point on Thornburg. Do you keep Thornburg as an Emergency Starter(losing to Fiers/Nelson at SP) for all of 2015 while Cravy pitches as a Starter Full-time in AAA in 2015 like Jungmann who should be successful make the team in 2016 as SPs over Thornburg who gets releagated to a full on Bullpen role then regardless? Trevor Rosenthal dominated in the Minors was a top 50 prospect and all the Cardinals did was insert him in to their late inning BP role/Closer full time when ready. Theres very good reason to believe Rosenthal is a much better option to Start games for the Cardinals in 2014 than the likes of John Lackey(10), Jaime Garcia(7), Tyler Lyons(4), Nick Greenwood(1), Justin Masterson(6), And we'll at least say competition to suggest he could been more worthy to start over Marco Gonzales(5) and Joe Kelly(7) But he didn't. He was their Closer now. Thornburg has 10 Career Starts. 3 of them in 2012 where in 13IP he gave up 6HRs.(only had 1 in the Minors) Now of course in 2013 He had 7 Games Started and didn't give up 1 HR.(but had 11 in the Minors) That's good, but which Thornburg are you going to expect moving forward as a SP? When he's a 37% Ground Ball rate? Also in his 10 Starts only 1 did he pitch in to the 7th inning. 43IP 34Ks 7.1/K9 the Good Starter. Whereas he's 8.5k/9 as a RP in 2014. Looking at 1.4 outs every 27 that are K outs(not facing a Pitcher mind you) for a guy who gives up 62% of his batted balls as Flyballs/Line Drives. He may pass the eye test as a SP but how much a difference is he as a SP vs being used with his arsenal as a Late Innings RP? There was a post someone put on the Brewers Tilt philosophy follow through to promote Downward Plane in their pitches inducing Ground Balls. I'm just looking at 5'11" vs 6'6" more than likely helping that outcome happen. I'd also like to have a highly talented home-grown Pitcher at the tail end of the bullpen if possible. Once with control/pitches to work with, not just a 96-98MPH FB and a prayer the 2nd pitch works when it doesn't. It'd be one thing if Thornburg threw absolute gas 96+ with his FB but he works 91-92 as a SP with his height disadvantage. 93-95 as a RP. I'd agree with you if his GB rate were higher, if he didn't have a problem with giving up HRs(when adding his Minors HRs with Majors), if he Struck out more batters as a SP. That's what Fiers has going for him(at 6'2") Estrada still had going for him at 6' with eerily similar pcts as Thornburg. Theres just so much working against him for him to be counted on as an effective SP. I guess the simplest way to put it is I see Thornburg as a 3.75ERA SP meeting expectations. And see him as a 2.80ERA RP meeting expectations. If Jungmann comes in and is a 3.9ERA SP w/o any RP numbers to go by, if Jungmann offers you 3.5ERA RP vs 3.9ERA SP who do you want as your combo? The .15ERA difference in SPs? OR the .70ERA difference in RP? What if Jungmann gives you 10IP more with his 6'6" frame as a SP at that .15ERA cost over a season? I'm just preferring the 3.9ERA/2.8ERA duo over the 3.75/3.5 ERA duo.

Starting Pitchers who had more than 50IP last season heights: 5'9"-Marcus Stroman with a 53.8% GB rate 5'10"-Mike Leake-53.4% GB- 5'11"-Johnyy Cueto, Sonny Gray 55.3% GB rate, Bartolo Colon 6'0"-Anibel Sanchez, Scott Kazmir, Gio Gonzalez, Ian Kennedy, Yordano Ventura, Jason Vargas, Wei-Yin Chen, Henderson Alvarez, Danny Salazar, Wade Miley, Bud Norris- 11 6'1"-10 6'2"-19 6'3"-22 6'4"-13 6'5"-9 6'6"-8 6'7"-6 5 total SPs last season under 6" who accumulated better than 1.5FWAR. 98 other SPs taller than 6" accumulated 1.5+FWAR As seen popular is 6'3" and 6'2" I also posted that 3 of those under 6" had a Ground Ball Rate above 53% clearly something contributing to their success(vs Thornburg's 37.4%) The odds are far from Thornburg's favor due to his height. And with Milw possessing Garza, Peralta, Fiers, Nelson, Jungmann with Hellweg/Wagner/Pena with maybe Jed Bradley/Brooks Hall/Tyler Cravy maybe making waves in 2015. I just don't believe it's better for Milw to play Thornburg a year when he stands likely to see himself fazed out of it in 2016...Especially if he's not producing to under 3.6ERA numbers.(which will be hard given his FB/Line Drive tendencies and MP) I'd agree with making a case for him if he were going to Pitching in a Pitchers ballpark where FlyBalls fall harmlessly for Outs vs HRs. Miller Park isn't that though. And what's his Velocity going to be as a Starter after he returns? If Nelson and Jungmann are long term viable options moreso as SPs than RPs, then the team should look their way for the next 6years.

Sardinas was roughly #75 in prospect rankings last season prior to graduating to the Major Leagues. So if the Padres the team that desires Sardinas, asks about him, they will have to overpay in trade, a Prospect for a ML player as Sardinas is now. Wisler just happens to be ranked right at or just above Sardinas' rank a year ago. So if Milwaukee is going to trade a promising young player as Sardinas is, they had better only do so trading for 1 of their 3 top 100 prospects(ignoring Turner since he's gone already) Brewers don't have a need for Hedges. They could use Wisler and or the player I like in Renfroe. 1 of those 2 has to be the ask in return if you're going to give up Sardinas. Anything less, and Milw is seller below Sardinas' previous value and should just keep him.

Based on the Padres prospect rankings the three that are in the top 100 are Wisler, Austin Hedges, and Hunter Renfroe. What about asking for Renfroe? Solid looking OF who appears 2years away. Maybe he's the answer to Ryan Braun. Or Replacing Khris Davis Depending who you attempt to trade and move? I'd send them Wren or Reed with Sardinas to make them do it. He pretty much reads of Khris Davis only he has the Defense and Arm that Davis lacks. 20+HR power OB skills. I'd try acquiring that vs. Wisler who gave up almost 1.3HR/9 last season. He's not dominant like you say, why push for another #3 type SP if you can shoot for an AS type OF? You wonder with Kemp and Liriano is he blocked? Plus SD stands a good chance to end up Sellers of Upton maybe 1 of their top pitchers when they don't win 50% of their games that Wisler isn't valued more as a replacement for that move? Wonder if Milw could attempt him at 3b?

Thornburg 5'11"-190 Nelson 6'6"-245 Nelson has the build that is going to keep him at Starter. Thornburg's Health has to be a concern and he will need to be accustomed to Relief Roles not Starting. Meanwhile 6'6" 210 Taylor Jungmann heads the AAA SP staff and will be the emergency SP if/when needed. Personally, as I recall a mentioning back in the day Thornburg's multiple Pitches/velocity made him a potential Closer potential after he had time to be groomed for one. His height being the reason he's not thought of for a SP. It would show with his 37.4% GB rate for his career thus far. Nelson sits at 48% thus far. Thornburg loses some velocity moving back to SP role. It's not quite 2MPH but fairly close. Gotta stick with the belief he's going to be the long man, and I'm fine with it. There's going to be enough multiple Innings for him to fill and it'll actually be nice to have someone whom it's easy to believe just 3ERA can be achieved being that. Remember this is the "Avg" Staff. We're talking 6IP 3.70ERA types. There's going to be 3 or 4IP outings that Thornburg can come in and pull off 3-4IP to get through that game. Or He's also a very nice guy to be able to turn to if we have a Tie game heading to Extras. I'd rather Thornburg who proved himself out of the Pen last season in that role than to stuff Nelson in the RP role because Thornburg looks slightly better than Jimmy to Start. Those 7Inches are a big GB producing impact vs FB tendencies that Thornburg is going to fight. It's best for the Organization to stick with Nelson Long-Term while it works vs. thrusting a Battle that lasts 1 season and inhibits Nelson's growth as a SP.

Heres something not mentioned. What if when a Call to the Bullpen is made for Loogy and the opposing manager removes his lefty for a Righty nullifying the Loogy? Is he supposed to be forced to face that pinch-hitter? Shouldn't the pitcher change manager be allowed to call in a Righty at that moment? Because if not the case, then the other manager should not be allowed to change batters. And he should. I mean if Scooter Gennett was at the Plate and a Manager calls in a Loogy who Gennett has been absolutely dominated vs. RRR should be able to call upon Gomez/Sardinas even Maldonado if pulling a double switch? Lets say in this case it was Wil Smith called upon to face Gennett. dominant vs Leftys not so much Rightys(at least as season wore on) Should Smith be forced to face Gomez or Maldonado HR threats when he's weaker against them? Or because the rule is in effect does the other manager have to just sit back and watch Gennett at around .300OPS vs Loogys, stand at the plate and face Smith? This rule doesn't work both ways and in a 162 game season if the Batting manager is allowed to bat a Righty facing the Loogy, There's going to be multiple games likely lost due to being forced to stick with the Loogy. How great will that be in the final week a Manager/GM is opening their mouth complaining how they wouldn't be needing to win 2 games to catch so and so because the last game played while ahead were stuck forced to stick with a Loogy who wound up serving up a HR to a Right Handed Pinch Hitter and lost that game.? And meanwhile a Thornburg or Jeffress was ready to come pitch vs that righty(who lets say it was Thornburg with the SP exp. that batter's history was 0-13 against) That Game Winning HR doesn't Happen. Because the RHB grounds meekly to the Pitcher instead and that team holds on for a win. Yeah, this isn't a good idea. Maybe in the 8th and 9th inning, but it typically seems the 7th inning is where a Loogy is used/bunch of pitching changes happen since youre 9outs away from end of the game-1 run through the batting order. But overall, I just think this wont work, it would end badly with the scenario I mentioned.

I'm glad I found this subject. I read the ranking via my FB page and just thought omg we're ranked 28th? After selecting Medeiros/Harrison/Gatewood and signing Lara? The Brewers graduated Nelson who was barely a top 100 prospect. That's a loss of 1 while adding 4. You'd think we'd move up a little higher? Theres gotta be teams either through graduation or trades lost 1st rd talent that drops them below Milw no? Anyway, I'm super pumped to finally read somebody ranking Arcia in their top 100. 54 no less! I can understand the lower ranking because honestly at this moment Coulter is the best ML ready bat they have followed by Arcia. Coulter just moved from Catcher/DH to the OF where he's yet to play. So can't be high on that til he's put in some game time. Arcia doesn't project to hit 15HRs in a year so his batting profile will never be all that high. That's it. No other hitter scratches the surface. It's the 1st rd picks+Lara that will jump this team up in ranking/plus Coulter's OF ability/+the Williams' boys pitching. Lopez too. Of course a lot of them could turn out as why we're #28 and bust proving these guys right. Anyway going to be a fun 2015 to experience!

OMG....So mad I wrote one of my long rants regarding this and hit a random button and it all was erased. Such a big subject to talk about. I'll just go with what I was writing... Moncada is being compared as a likely #1 pick in 2015 draft if he were a part of it. He's being offered 40mil in a signing bonus at age 19. How? Stephen Strasburg who w/o spending limits in 2009 signed a 4/15.2mil as a #1 selection. So far in his Professional career spanning 5 years he's made 17.65mil. He's set to earn 7.4mil in 2015. So total at age 26 Strasburg will have made 40.25mil. The exact same bonus amount Moncada is reportedly being offered at age 19. Nevermind the penalty making him 80mil in cost. Moncada w/o playing any MLB will sign as a #1 talent/ the exact amount MLB's #1 pick in 2009 has earned by them age 19 through 26. Strasburg having 5(4 really) years of MLB playing experience performing well to #1 pick talent. How? is that possible? Who here for 2015 would want Moncada over Strasburg on the Brewers? Yet here's this 19yr old about to make more money than heck how about Carlos Gomez his entire career? And he's never played 1 pitch of MLB Pro Ball. And the Bonus doesn't limit Moncada from making what Gomez or Strasburg went through with the 6years of team control contract. He makes the ML roster thats 500k+ more for him. He hits Arb he can command what history shows he should command. He's being given 2 FAs contract periods essentially before he likely even reaches 28. It's just absurd. The Astros btw had 5mil as a team pool in 2014. Hes being tied to 40mil 8 times the max a team could spend at the base pool. Carlos Rodon was the highest paid draftee in 2014 6.582mil. I just don't see why Moncada can sign for anything more than 8mil. Wouldn't have a big problem with this if that was what we were discussing but 40mil? 5 times that? How? How can he command that? How can MLB allow that...oh maybe because the tax goes to the Commissioner's office to be "used" to better International Activities. Reads more like/ here's hush/hush money to look the other way at the absurdity of this.

1/13mil is easy to work around between the two teams. 2yrs/26mil isn't. Papelbon isn't a nobody RP he has been good as my numbers in the KRod discussion showed. So the problem lies in that Philly trying to shed money, isn't exactly shedding all that much money if you ask for 10mil maybe even 12mil combined for both years. The Phillies are only on the hook for 13mil this year with the option likely not being executed. It becomes a point that if Philly picks up 8+mil. They now have to get a Prospect in return. You're arguably picking up a 2WAR RP maybe 2.5WAR. at 5mil paid for, it's just a salary dump seeing 8/21mil saved. But at 8mil+ sent away, I think Philly now has the argument to ask for someone that has 2+WAR potential in say his first 3years playing. If you base off of MLB.com just the top 8Brewers are ranked as Future ML Avg ballplayers. Lopez being one who isn't a part of that list. Now the rest of the top 20 are overall ranked 45 and obviously some come with upside(like Diplan/Lopez/Hellweg I guess even Jungmann) I just look at the return coming the Phillies' way and see them getting a Lopez or Devin Williams prospect in return if they fork over the money with 2 years of Papelbon. For 1 year I'd think a non factor prospect ends up going to them. Is giving up a Lopez/Williams type prospect really worth it long term for the money vs just signing Soriano or KRod? How many more Games is Papelbon going to lock down vs those two? Based on WAR from 2014 1.9WAR better than Soriano 1.2WAR better than KRod. Those two had down years while Papelbon had an up year. Is that 1Win really worth it if it even ends up as 1win? (could easily by 0)

It's funny how the 20-min of terror image is on KRod when his Whip was under 1 last season barely but under, for the first time since he was 21. He still Ks better than a Batter per 9. Which Casey Janssen doesn't. Soriano Ks near a batter per 9 still and doesn't have the kind of dropoff in velocity Papelbon has experienced. The guy reads as someone who'd be a safe bet for a RP. It's just he's gone from 34 to 35 in 2015 and maybe that 2nd half collapse, is part of aging? If that's the case, you're picking up a HasBeen. And I'd wonder if part of why he doesn't have a deal is money+Years. He may be searching for 2yr deal and having earned 13mil the last 2, I'd imagine he's commanding at least 8mil a year. The team that gets him for 1 year only likely sign an incentive laden deal where he can make upwards of 11-13mil due to Appearances/IP/Games Finished/Saves. The fact that KRod has reduced his BB/9 Rate the last 2 seasons, and his age+stats just give me better hope he'll be what is expected in a 2yr deal vs. Soriano. And Janssen's KRate just not a fan of for a Closer(like Kinztler) where he relies on Luck with the Ball put in to play. Pitching in Miller Park with its HR giving, just doesn't make one comfortable with a guy low on K/Rate. One seeing eye single followed by the MP HR and thats 2runs given up maybe ballgame. So guys like Janssen who are going to be seeing the ball put in play, really makes that situation concerning. Keep me with the guys with 9+Ks/9 at closer please.

Oooh, a Fun post to create havoc....I'm late to the party. Honestly, I cant figure out a lineup for this team. Especially when we don't know Braun's Thumb problem/solution. If Braun is back to .850+ OPS .280+AVG hitting, I'd assume he just sits in the #3 spot. But, if his thumb isn't fixed, I could see him batting 2nd vs RHP and 1st vs LHP. You have Lind bat where vs RHP? Do you play Lucroy vs LHP at 1b? Kind of stuff to learn in ST. Sardinas or Gomez? Who plays for Segura? Who oddly had a .511OPS vs LHP. Gennett vs RHP Leadoff I assume. Vs LHP does he play? OR with Sardinas or H.Gomez as a platoon situation, do you bat them 1st or 2nd? Considering Carlos Gomez' Splits last season, he'd fit 1st nicely vs any SP. Or 2nd. Maybe even just fills 3rd if Braun is batted 1st/2nd. Khris Davis seems like a perfect #6 hitter. Aram had huge splits vs Lefties and not so much Righties. So do you bat him 4th vs LHP and Lind 4th vs RHP? Lucroy would make an excellent #2 in the lineup everyday based on his makeup. So: Kinda a feeler: Vs RHP: Easier 1. Gennett 2. Gomez 3. Braun 4. Lind 5. Lucroy 6. ARam 7. Davis/Parra 8. Segura/Sardinas/Gomez Vs. LHP 1. Gomez 2. Lucroy 3. Braun 4. ARam 5. Khris Davis 6. Lind? or Maldonado if Lucroy plays 1b. 7. Gennett/Sardinas/H.Gomez 8. Segura Thats under the current thinking. So much to see with ST how they set lineups up. How Sardinas/Segura/Gomez bat. I don't know what to think on ARam. Does he own the #4 spot if an Adam Lind vs RHP is in the lineup and ARam's splits vs that type are far exceeded by Lind? I believe the lineup is just going to playing matchups with Gomez/Braun/Lucroy owning places in an order the most. Davis too. How the team bats Lind will clear this up some.

If I'm reading you correctly, that's .61 WHIP. Is that not a great thing? Yeah, giving up a bunch of HRs in the 2nd half isn't but that's a different discussion. No, WHIP goes by innings. I'm not sure where Bombers got his stats but Krod had a .985 WHIP last year which is amazing considering giving up the 14 homeruns. I should have clarified. K-rod had 27 clean innings last year. So his 42 out of 69 is 61%. Yes, his WHIP was only .985 (which on the surface seems great) but when you look into it, wasn't all that spectacular. He allows a lot of guys to score once they are on as 33% of his base runners score. (23 runs out of 69 guys on base) Just to clarify for you. No he doesnt allow many baserunners to score. KRod gave up 16 Runs last season on 14HRs. 12 Solo, 2 2Run HRs. He gave up 23runs total last season in 68IP. That would mean he allowed a total of 11Runs on the season with runners on Base. The ERA on that number is under 1.5 When you remove the 12Runs scored on Solo HRs. I'd say that's better than can be expected for Runners on base. Now. How about the point of him having a much lower Whip? I'm thinking part of that has to do with the situation, team up by more than 1 run nobody on base, pitch to contact vs Nibble the corners....Equals less Walks given up. Of those 14HRs 6HRs resulted in losing the lead or a tie score. 7 of them were with the team ahead by more than 1 run. On Sept 9th KRod gave up a tie ball game on a 2run HR and then was taken yard for B2B HRs in what was a 2run deficit now. Overall he had 5 Blown Saves in 49Attempts and the Brewers actually won 2 of them. 44/49 almost 90%. Conv. KRod had 4 other Losses beside Save Opportunities When the Game was Tied coming in. 4 out of 8 in Tie Games. 3 of the Clean innings were Ws with the other one going extras. Makes KRod 48/57 84.2% when the Game is Tied or a Save Chance. If we take away the 7HRs given up as Garbage Time Freebies his Split last season turns in to: .175/.241/.286 for a .527OPS against. That is pretty Phenomenal if you ask me? Wouldn't you think? And just for the sake of further belief in KRod: He gave up 7HRs in 2013 All Solo Shots. All of them with the Game further than 1 run apart. Here was a RP who had never had less than 3 BB/9 until 2013 and 2014 Taking a 3.9BB/9 to 2.7/9 and last year 2.4BB/9 I don't know what the Exact Expectations are for a Team's Closer throughout a Season. I'd imagine 4 Blown Saves personally as an expectation. The 4/8 conversion when the Game was tied coming in, is a little disheartening. If it matters: Jonathan Broxton had 8 Blown Saves in 2014. This out of 62 App. He only allowed 10 appearances of giving up Runs mind you. 7 of them cost the team the Game. How much Better is Broxton 39/46 Save/Hold Opportunites Team ahead by 3runs to Tie game when entered to KRod then 48/57? Broxton/Krod 84.7%/84.2% Virtually identical numbers in that instance. And to add Papelbon to this as an option: 8 appearances/66 he allowed Runs to score. 56 Tied to Ahead Appearances. 5Games he Blew it so 51/56 91.1% Conversion. Take the Avg it's 53 Attempts Keep the Percentages the Same: Papelbon converts 48.28 Broxton converts 44.89 KRod converts 44.62 You go off of that we're talking 3.5 more games at best remaining with the Game Tied/Brewers win over the course of the season between Papelbon/KRod. Now thats with KRod allowing 14HRs to Papelbon a Career low/best 2HRs a .3 Rate vs .7 career avg per 9IP. Will Papelbon regress back to norm? Is KRod a 1.9/HR per 9 RP now vs the .8/9 for his Career moving forward? Or will he bounceback to around 1.1HR/9? KRod bounce back would give him 8.3HRs given up And Papelbon regressing to Norm would give him 5.15. A 12HR difference would become a 3.15HR difference. So again, who's better to have mind you 13mil/9mil/ and a ? in pay as your closer? I think the bad KRod isnt as justified as the quick glance at his stats make it seem.

Bombers is on to a point when you think about it. A Left Handed batter with Pull power is defensed so much better with the bases empty simply because a 3b and SS could stand on 1b and cover 2b or 3b in more than enough time than the Batter can run to after making contact. You can't move a 1b with a Right Handed batter at the plate to 2b much less left of 2b since the batter stands more than a decent chance to beat that fielder to 1b after contact creating a hit. Simple fix to the problem for Left handed hitters with bases empty. 1b is actually 3b and 3b is actually 1b when nobody is on base. Level batting field with Right handed hitters. Right? Wouldn't that solve the problem? Highly doubt the 3b plays SS and SS plays 2b with the 2b in shallow RF since somebody needs to cover 3b then, and that 2b fielding a ball hit in to shallow RF more than likely will never throw out the batter at 3b, unlike throwing the batter out at 1b. Forget restricting defensive shifts. Just shift a Left handed Batter's route when the bases are empty. And when there's a runner on base, the regular route is used. Want to create more offense? How many errors are going to be committed throwing to 1b instead of 3b during that AB? Foolish idea I'm sure, but to me a better suggestion than eliminating a defensive shift.

Not at any single Level did Baez post above 1 in OPS as Bryant has Avg'd at all levels thus far. Alcantara had his K issues. But for a man who moved up a level every Pro Season and jump from AAA to the ML's having a Career minor league OPS below .800 I for one wouldn't expect him to be much above .700 if .700. He doesn't profile as a HR hitter. Nor big on BB Rate. And he hits from Both Sides. Tons of adjustment/learning Curve. Oh yeah he turned in to an OF/CF on the fly for the Cubs in 2014. I believe Lester can repeat his season. Arrieta as has been read a long time hear by a cpl posters has immense talent/should have been sought after in trade. I'm going to believe him to be capable to reproduce at least 25 starts like he did in 2014. The other 7 or 8? is another story. Hendricks I said likely has more 3.6ERA in him than under 3ERA but that just makes my point in Fiers who I don't believe to be better than 2.5ERA. Hammel could be bad, could be the same, he'll eat some innings though. It's not that I'm touting Doubront or Wada or Turner for that matter, its that the Cubs have options with whom to turn the ball to, to be their #5. Considering how well Bosio has made many in that staff(including Garza's best as a SP prior to being traded) which reads just like Hammel doubts/Arrieta doubts/Samardzija's Cubs to A's performance. Why is it they are producing so well for the Cubs and not the previous or future team? Russell has been very successful thus far. Has .800OPS skills not bogged down by Ks like Baez or Alcantara for that matter so his regression/struggles is likely to be less when moved up. I don't expect every prospect to move up the Majors and go from .800 or .900 OPS and suddenly have the capability to maybe muster .700OPS or worse as it seems you're counting on for Every single Cubs prospect. Far be if for Gennett to OPS higher in the ML than his career avg in the Minors. Or Khris Davis to OPS near .800 prior to a slump to .756 to finish 2014. When OPSing at .859 at the AAA level in the hitter friendly PCL? These Cubs prospects aren't being ranked high Defense first. Some like Soler/Bryant even Russell are ranked because they possess offensive above avg tools. Baez was the prospect ranked on fielding his position and power. Him struggling at the plate makes sense. Alcantara is a Fielder/Runner first Offense 2nd and he's falling in to the role of Super Utility not everyday Starter with Fowler taking over CF. I've never believed Baez was as legit as Bryant. Bryant takes more Walks than Baez. Patience. You don't swing and miss at junk and instead take a Ball, Pitchers have to throw a ball in the strike zone at some point giving Bryant a higher chance to successfully put the ball in play. It's why I think Bryant is legit. If you're going to be down on all these guys. What kind of Hope is there in Milw's system? There's not one Batter in Milw's system with the Numbers Bryant/Baez/Soler/Russell/Alcantara have been putting up. Not one. We can argue about Milw's best in prospects when it comes to talking Almora but that's it. And he's your furthest from Majors prospect in the discussion. I think Baez is failing. Alcantara will be a Super utility. That's still 3 in Bryant/Soler/Russell that I foresee becoming big time contributors. Add Almora it's 3 out of 6. The Cubs need just 8 in the field and Have Rizzo/Castro/Montero. 6/8 is doing pretty damn good.

It would be a typical backloaded or deferred salary contract similar to the one Ramirez signed. If he is willing to play the first year for say $9M then it wouldmake the remaining a 3 yr/$51-56M deal ($17M-18.6M AAV). That adds up to 4years/60-65mil roughly. not 4/80mil as being suggested at 20mil a year. Wheres the other 15mil? Deferred? How many deferrals does Mark A. have to start adding up? As for Shields. Theres a part of me that thinks a Papelbon trade is the kind of move that maybe is designed to make the Cards or Cubs flinch to combat the insurance the Brewers gain at the backend of their Bullpen and sign Shields. Hopefully to a 5yr 110mil deal with loss of draft pick by either of those teams. Ive read of the Cards kicking the tires on upgrading and adding a strong Starter to the Rotation. A Papelbon move to me, might make them commit to doing it. Good long Term for Milw if you ask me.

Why? What disqualifies them to not win 80games? They may be a better team in 2015 than Milw was in 2014? When 80games seemed to be a reasonable w/l amount but talented enough with the right breaks to win 87-90. Pitching? Lester/Arrieta/Hammel/Hendricks all beat a 3ERA (when what? 3.7 was a SP avg?) And yes 17GS for the Cubs by Hammel/Hendricks and 25 by Arrieta. Not a full season's worth to go by. But still. That is 32/25/17/17=91 total Games started by their Rotation of under 3ERA. Out of what would amount to 128 total to count on. That alone keeps them in games. And I'm not going to sleep on a legit 1b in Rizzo in Batting talent 900+OPS a .366OB leadoff hitter in Fowler. And what to me is going to be a game changer(as Braun was) in Bryant joining their O. (near 1.100 OPS in minors) Not Milw's #1 prospect in Tyrone Taylor with a .757 career OPS. 1.1. Bryant is going to rake ahead or behind Rizzo. You're looking at two .900 OPS types in the order with a .366OB batter ahead of them. That means they'll score some runs. IF 56+% of their Pitching will be producing under a 3ERA I'm sure they'll accumulate some wins. The Cubs won 73 games last season with a very inferior offensive team. Gone will be Schierholtz, Olt, and Barney 816 PAs of .600 or less OPS types. Baez was .551 OPS in 250 PAs. Thats over 1,000 PAs by those types of Offensive players that won't be in the Cubs lineup.(or improved in Baez' case most likely) I could add less Junior Lake, Ryan Sweeney, less Castillo/Baker, Kalish, Valaika.... So much addition by subtraction. Again look at a suggested projected lineup: Fowler, Castro, Bryant, Rizzo, Soler, Montero, Baez/Russell/Alcantara, Coghlan. Instead of: 1. Bonifacio/Coghlan 2. Baez/Lake 3. Rizzo 4. Castro 5. Valbueno 5/6/7/8 Castillo 5/6/7 Schierholtz 6/7/8 Olt Barney/Baker 7/8s I mean, thats bad. And now? Coghlan gets moved from #1 #6,7 or 8. With Fowler at #1. Castro moves from Cleanup! to #2 in my mind since Bryant/Rizzo one of them move to it. Soler now takes a spot in the order(batted behind Rizzo to finish the season, if Bryant moves to 3rd Soler 5th? with a much more prototypical profile for that spot in the order) I mean Castro and his 14HRs as your cleanup hitter? so much better #2. Rizzo #4 Soler's 20ish HRs 5th. Cubs have 5 spots filled unlike last season. They've built a solid #1-5 in the order, and I like Montero's offensive makeup, I believe hes better than the last 2 seasons shown. Leaves just Baez/2b and Coghlan/LF to be question marks. Castillo RH .631ops/LH .855ops splits will mesh perfectly with Montero's RH .735ops/LH .563ops. Likely fills the #6 spot in the order nicely around 800 OPS. I'm not going to sleep on this team and look at them as less than 80 wins. Schwarber/Almora I wouldn't be surprised if one of them ends up rushed in to play LF if they produce in the Minors in 2015. More Upside. And the Cubs have a Ton of RPs in their young to mid 20s. Rondon/Strop/Grimm/Turner/Doubront/Ramirez/Wada That's 6 solid options with 1 being the #5 in Rotation. There's more reason to me to see the Cubs win more than 80 games than less than 80games. So why will they not win 80games?

"It will be interesting to see who opens the season at 3B and 2B for the Cubs as they still intend to keep Bryant in the minors long enough to get another year of control as he's a Boras client" To me the Cubs by doing this, and maybe playing Baez at 2b ineffectively, is what will cost them a Playoff berth. Bryant has that kind of hitters profile that when/if he gets hot. Can win a team 3 games in one week on his own. Sitting him in AAA I'm thinking the Cubs will miss that one stretch(what if 2?) and instead of winning 88games in 2015 only win 85 and missing the Playoffs. All for the 1 more year of team control for a player the Cubs could afford for life monetary wise. Using Baez too, if he's a 40% K batter may cost them another game early. Making it 84 while seasoning Russell I'm guessing for another year of team control. I think all this for "Team Control" will cost the Cubs. I'd understand the strategy if they were the Brewers or Pirates, but come on the Cubs/ Chicago's market? Play your best players from day 1 not day 45 or whatever it may be. Good for the Brewers though if those 3 or 4 Ws lost by the Cubs are why Milw makes the Playoffs. Alcantara was pretty bad last season. He was a very young Rookie. I think he actually did better than expected at that point in his career. I sure don't see Fiers as his equivalent As Hendriks equivalent? That's more along the lines of neither is going up there throwing Gas, so both have to rely on location and mixing up their pitches well. They are the types that I don't think have a strong ceiling(Fiers 2014 was definitely more than expected) I'd imagine a 3.6ERA season being the best expectation for both. Anything better exceeds what you expect. Maybe you see Fiers (as a Homer) as a 3ERA SP and not being a Hendricks homer don't see him as a 3ERA for the Cubs.

I don't know what to think about Fowler seeing as he sits Alcantara's bat, and what of Almora if he makes strides he's now blocked more. As far as the Cubs' lineup. I feel like the Cubs are going to screw up, play Alcantara at 3b to hang on to Bryant an extra team year. Bat Baez at 2b to start the year(whom I feel needs more AAA polishing) If I were running the Cubs, Bryant starts at 3b Opening day. Alcantara or Russell play 2b opening day. Baez I believe in Winter ball didn't improve his K Rate at all. I'm not as down on the Cubs pitching situation. Lester with Hammel, Arrieta, and Hendriks should be just as strong as Milw's starting 4 no? Lester=better than Lohse. Arrieta=Wily Peralta. Hendriks=Fiers. Leaves Hammel-worse than Garza. Cubs have Wada/Doubront and not to be slept on former top 10 prospect Jacob Turner to sorta fill #5. With what the Cubs have done with their Staff having Bosio, I'm not going to sleep on their pitching. Arrieta keeps up his breakthrough, Hammel returns to success in the NL, and what happens if Turner figures something out? His FB actually increased 1 MPH at the age of 23 from 22, so maybe there's some more growth out of him yet? Back to the lineup Fowler and his .366OB sure is going to be awesome to top that Cubs lineup. Fowler Castro Bryant Rizzo Then any combo of Soler/Montero #5. The other 6th. 2b/LF 7th/8th. You're looking at a top 6 in the Batting order all capable of batting .270+ Change Russell for Baez and that's 7 with your LF to at some point turn to Almora who also has a .280ish profile. Now Fowler is in a contract year so can't say what 2016 will be....Almora in CF/Soler in RF LF still to be determined. Rizzo, Russell, Castro, Bryant, Montero infield. Strong lineup...what if Schwarber graduates to the roster by 2016? Yikes!

I am hoping Henderson comes back to full health. I like him, I'm one of the few, that doesn't believe Henderson is a full-time closer, but an emergency option at least. Thornburg and him with Smith I feel comfortable for the 7th and 8th innings. Henderson has been more of a guy I would like to see put up a decent year, and get him traded for something in value as far as what I seen. He's a two pitch guy, and I just don't believe his Slider is dominant like Smith's can be. Henderson being FB/Slider only, no Changeup I don't see him as a Closer but with the high velocity FB, a great option for the 7th inning honestly.

His 2016 option vests if he finishes 48 games in 2015 which would make total of 100 for 14-15. He's done at least that for 9 straight seasons. Sure Philly could play some games to keep him from that total but they'd likely have a grievance filed. So it's not like the Phillies are just on the hook for $13 million. Would he win if he filed a grievance? Philly could easily say they are grooming for the future. " Salisbury hears that the Phillies are committed to moving Papelbon and letting Ken Giles inherit the closer’s role" That quote. 2015 is going to be a losing year for Philly. 2016? Who knows? Having a healthy Giles with experience is better for them than holding on to Papelbon and not seeing Giles get his chance if they succeed in 2016. It's a business call. Why would Papelbon win his grievance? W/o the option he's a Free Agent, free to command whatever money he's believed to be valued. The Option year in value wasn't something that increased his salary. I'd get him having a grievance if he agreed to a contract where he earned 9mil each season in his contract and then had a 20mil option if he completed the necessary amount of games. If I'm Philly, I'd be saying the team was willing to offer him a QO(BS but,) which is more than the 13mil option if the guy really wants to put a stink up about it. The FO wants to make Giles closer. Washington had a 120 games finished clause for Rafael Soriano in which he finished with 106. He needed 62 after 58 the first year. Soriano actually pitched himself out of the ability to finish games because he blew 7Games last season. 5 games that he could have finished but didn't after blowing the lead which would have put him at 111. He went to 7th/8th inning duties came in for a non-save opp and blew that so there's 112 with little attempt in searching. The club could sit him the moment he allows a runner on base and turn to Giles vs letting Papelbon finish the inning. He only had 52 games finished. Just gotta lose 5 game finishes. What is the likelihood he serves up just 2HRs this year? Has a BABIP of .251? A Whip of .90? He's either better today than he has been for his career averages or he experienced a lot of luck. Philly is likely staring at maybe 70wins in 2015. Maybe 65wins. It's not a sure thing even if he's the one handed the ball to close games all season. He failed Twice all season last year to not finish a game when he had the opportunity. 52/66 or in other words 52/54 in his opportunities. Papelbon by my count was handed the ball 11times in non-save opportunites where he completed the game either because he was handed the ball in the top of the 9th and Philly won in the bottom of the inning/ Philly was ahead by 3+runs or the team was losing and he finished the game anyway. They don't have to give him the ball in the 9th inning in those situations. And in that case, he doesn't even have 48 opportunities much less 48 (guaranteed given) finishes as the grievance concern is about. And that's assuming he's healthy for the entire season, not 1 DL stint. Now I guess he was used almost exclusively in the 9th innings, including tie games. So I'm kinda leaving out the games he could have finished as a loser had he allowed Runs to score...But that higher number would be counteractive to arguing to finish games because his ERA certainly would be approaching 3+ if not 4 then if he blew those 9th inning appearances. Anyway, just a 48 Games Finished isn't a guarantee with so many positive factors involved on his side in 2014. one would think he'd be around 60 games finished being that good, if Philly were Milw in 2014. That team is worse, 40 Save opportunities could be very hard to come by.

Reading this morning that talks have come to a stand-still. Papelbon asking to guarantee his 2016 option, would seem to be too much a price to pay for Milw or Philly. He's making too much! Philly wants to save money from his contract which is only 13mil guaranteed this year. Milwaukee shouldn't be paying their closer anymore than 7-8mil a season imo. So to have a 2/26 closer that becomes 2/14 or 2/16 which would mean 10-12mil needing to be paid by Philly. This deal just may fall through. Philly has to pay almost as much money as they are on the hook for to make it happen. If I'm them, I don't trade him at all and send him in the trade deadline in that case. They can control his finishes attempt to keep him below pace on his option kicking in. Save 3-5mil at the deadline and get a better return than what Milw has to offer(so long as its not Coulter/Arcia/Kneble or Sardinas)

If I said a 4 ERA nobody would get overly concerned. Difference in a 63IP RP at 3era to a 5era is 14ERs. You figure in 65 appearances-14/65 would mean just 1/4 of his appearances to occur that change and only give up 1ER in them. He can be the good Pap 75% of the time and be a 5ERA RP with dropping off 25% of his appearances. It doesn't take much. And this comes on the heels of decreased velocity while having numbers that read as Luck involved. What would his numbers be w/o that luck? Then say he gets just half(7ERs) as bad as my concern? What's his ERA? I'm concerned with 2016 the most. 1year fine, Philly can offset the cost to value. 2yrs? They can't w/o Milw giving up a solid piece. Philly is trying to shed salary. They don't have to throw 8-10mil to do that if 3mil more is all it takes to have him in 15 and gone in 16 simply by not using him like Brewers did with Weeks. I expect 4-6mil with little going Phillys way. More than 6mil and its going to cost a top ten team prospect not drafted in 2014. So Taylor,Arcia,Coulter, Jungmann, d.Williams, Lopez,Roache, Kneble, Sardinas are potentially on the table. And that's with Milw paying close to 10mil per season for Pap or 1/11 the payroll.

I'm concerned with the drop in velocity. It's been yearly and a pace I could surmise 90.5 in 15 and 89.3 in 16. At what point will hitters simply take his pitches as a glorified BP? He's going to make 13mil in 16 to maybe toss around in the 5 ERA range? Paps is making what a 3War player should make. What percentage would someone give for him to beat 4WAR the next two seasons combined?

OMG I am not going to like this trade. Philly will get somebody in return. It will have to be a player with ML capability. Now Medeiros/Harrison/Gatewood/Lara are obviously not available in trade(ptbnl damned) So the worry becomes Taylor, Arcia, Coulter, the Williams', Kneble, Lopez, my choice would be Victor Roache please. At least tie him in as a 1st rd pick value. But what of David Goforth? Wasn't he added to the 40man to protect in the Rule 5 draft? If so, I'd think a Roache/Goforth deal for Papelbon would be your trade of hope. Since if goforth is on 40man his spot is used for Papelbon and Milw doesn't drop anyone else? Yes?No?

Going strictly by the projected figures from MLB.com Orlando Arcia (2014) hit 45 power 30 run 45 arm 60 field 55 overall 50 (one + tool. two tools average or higher. one tool projects plus) Luis Sardina (2013) hit 50 power 50 run 50 arm 60 field 60 overall 60 (all tools project average or better. two project plus) Sardinas across the boards has a higher upside if you believe Jonathan Mayo. For the record, I am not saying I agree with him, but Sardinas was the #2 ranked prospect for the Rangers headed into 2013, who were the #1 organization in 2012. Arcia was the #2 prospect for the Brewers starting 2014. The Brewers ranked near the bottom in organizational rankings. I think there's a lot of fluidity to prospect rankings. In 2013, Sardinas was ranked ahead of Joey Gallo, who is now one of the top 10 prospects in the game. Again, I'm not saying that I agree with that. I do know that Sardinas got a lot of buzz in the Dallas area. He was a little slow starting off, but caught on pretty quickly. I don't think Sardinas has anywhere near Major League average power potential. He doesn't have the frame for it. He's a stick, 6'1" but 150 pounds, and he doesn't have any projectability with his body type, imo. I think he has a long way to go before he can show he's Major League average as far as his pure hitting tool goes, too. I don't think scouts look at it this way, but for me, the "hit" tool should include several factors. It might be, but should not be, imho, just purely a measure of how well somebody puts the bat on the ball. Hit tool should consider how well somebody reads pitching, and the decisions they make. If two guys both hit .280, but one strikes out 170 times, and the other strikes out 90, who is the better hitter? For me, Major League average (50) hit tool should be a .260 hitter and a .330 OBP. Either metric lowering should adversely affect the rating. And I also think that swing and miss should factor in. If A guy strikes out 170 times a year, they're not a Major League average hitter. I don't care how many home runs they hit. A batter with a 33% whiff rate is terrible. Fondy, I've seen some ratings that ended up being 20 points off in both directions. I stated this earlier in the thread...Sardinas rankings were clearly based on his size and projectability. He's 6'1" 150lbs. Arcia is 6' even 165lbs. These talent evaluators have to be basing some of their projection the 50power to 30power on the fact that Sardinas can add 30lbs to his body and at 6'1" previous batting talent for that size must have been capable of 12-15HRs in a season ie avg. Meanwhile Arcia at 6' and 165 you would have to assume he's only going to add 10-15lbs max to his frame so what he produces today which was 4HRs each of the last 2 minor league seasons would add up to only 8-10HRs with the added size. Arcia could add 30lbs sure, but at what cost to his defensive range/ his throwing power/ and his bat speed? To be down on Sardinas due to what he's produced is forgetting that he could realistically add 10-15lbs of mass to his frame in a year and what does that make him that 2nd season from now? Sardinas at =10-15lbs is still undersized and can grow. Arcia 10-15lbs more would make him about the size you would assume him to be. Just an fyi. I can also say that, I believe since Milw's minors system has been ranked so down for awhile now, that has some to do with Arcia not making top 100 lists. Meanwhile, these evaluators are loving much of Texas' system and ranking their guys higher. For instance in 2013 Jairo Beras was I want to say in the top 60 of prospect ranks in Texas' top 7 overall and someone along with Sardinas being mentioned as a piece to trade for in Grienke deal....Now the guy is 17th in Texas's ranks and ranked a 45(below avg) overall as a MLB player in the future. Beras is btw a 6'5" OF/MIF I wanna say at the time who's OPS was below .700 last season in the Minors. Carlos Gomez effect, Taller batters/Taller Pitchers are projected to do more power. in HRs or in pitching more down-plane FB velocity. Exactly why a 5'11" pitcher like Medieros is being made out to be a RP long term.