brewcrewdue80
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Everything posted by brewcrewdue80
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You know, theres a strong part of me that just thinks that Pitchers with velocity in "These Days" are more valuable, simply because BATTERS are worse than they ever were. Just hitting 20+HRs these days makes GM drool at the power(Cespedes/Puig for instance) all because the Batters in this age aren't as fundamental as batters were in the 80s with this kind of batter profile. 180ks for 15-20HRs. OK. The guy doesn't have a problem, he has power, don't care about the .230-.250 BA it comes with. It's that reason, I believe the dropoff from Gallardo to Nelson isn't going to be much. It's not the difference in talent between the pitchers, its the lack of talent in the Batters Nelson has to face. That 3-4MPH additional in his FB, is fast enough to weaken 10-20% of the bats in to either strikeouts or weak groundouts/popouts because they aren't talented enough to square up on that pitch/prepare for an at bat at that velocity. It's why the 100MPH Closers in Chapman/Kimbrel go out there and K 18 batters a 9. These batters can't shorten up their swing and make contact at that velocity because that shorter swing only means singles or maybe a gap producing double. Which goes against this era's growth of swinging for the fences. They just don't know better. So to me, Nelson can be as effective as Gallardo because of his FB velocity. So long as he locates it with mixing in a changeup/slider/curveball for a strike here and there. It's a Pitchers ERA, gotta learn to deal with the fact that expectations for batters just aren't going to be met, they aren't as good as the originals used to be.
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If this is it and "We are Set", WE are in trouble
brewcrewdue80 replied to rickh150's topic in Transaction Rumors & Proposals
I put a reply in the Gallardo thread about him vs Nelson. Gallardo 100.5pitches last year Nelson 90 in his starts..92 when removing his last bad outing. Nelson had more Ks than Gallardo. An Equal Walk Rate between the two. 1 more Hit per 9 for Nelson vs Gallardo. Nelson better at giving up less HRs. Gallardo avg rougly 1 more out per start than Nelson...at 10pitches more. So to me, I believe Nelson can improve slightly(reduce the hits per 9 by 1 avg over 6ip a start) when he pitches 96-100pitches per start. If that ends up true, you're staring at an identical pitcher as Yovani was in 2014. So where is the dropoff from this trade when putting Nelson in the rotation in place of Gallardo. And to flip the script. Nelson has improved on his control kept up a high K rate reduced his Hits per 9 and K/BB rate in the minors as he's aged in the Minors. Maybe he continues to get better. And if so, that makes him better as a SP than Gallardo. That makes the team better in 2015 than in 2014 with this trade by ridding the team of Gallardo's reduced skills. Now I know, Nelson comes with a lack of more than 2 legit ML pitches. But if he's going to toss gas that many can't catch up to, and pitch well with his 2nd pitch, he's capable of equalling/bettering Gallardo's stats while having less talent. It happens. If you take a 3year avg, the two probably near the same/Gallardo a little better. But again, that's based on Nelson having zero improvement in 2015 from 2014 while Gallardo who's at 8seasons and counting giving a team what you expect from him w/o any more upside to truly gain. He's not going to gain velocity. Maybe a slight improvement on control, but surely far less improvement than what can be expected from Nelson his 2nd time around in the ML. I'd love for the argument the other way. Why there's a dropoff from Gallardo to Nelson. What the reasoning is. The numbers to support it? I can't find it. -
Why the huge concern over the SPs? There's 5 with a safe #6. There's Wil Smith, Tyler Thornburg, plus whenever Hellweg/Pena get healthy and find some of the strike zone. Tyler Cravy/Drew Gagnon? I mean, yeah after the first 6, Smith and Thornburg when stretched out. the rest are likely going to be bad. Let's get to that point before locking in multiple options to maybe be decent #7/#8 options and tie in a ML roster spot with them. I'd rather use the roster spot for a utility bat or an extra Bullpen guy. I do like somebodys mention about Brandon Beachy. I'd think with Gallardo gone you can now realistically talk to his agent and convince him there's a really strong chance to make the Rotation this season when he returns healthy. That, or when Lohse leaves after the season, that opens a rotation spot for him to fill. This would make a lot of sense for the time being because currently the main 5 are healthy plus #6. You would need Beachy being option #7 later down the line if and when the injuries occur. This Trade needed to happen. The club needed to break their mold and sell off a valuable piece in Fans eyes and acquire future pieces in return. Shed money in the process. Open up the door for trades like this to happen down the road(Peralta and Garza in 2/3years? Gennett/Davis/Segura?) Seeing the return in the trades for 1 years loss of team control will grow on the fanbase if/when the winning teams continue multiple times over. Tampa has done it for awhile now. IF Milw is going to continue having 100mil-ish payrolls they can be Tampa part deux easily. I hope the best for 2 of the team's 3 pieces, that Sardinas or Kneble or Diplan, two of them make a strong return on investment. It'll show that this way of management can work and produce positive results when done properly. Now, back to the trade. All I can recall is Gallardo being tagged as a #4 SP at best when the 2013 trade deadline approached and passed. To get 3 prospects/players in return for him with legit ML potential is phenomenal. I don't care about his 2014....2013 happened and he was worthless in trade appeal/return in trade. So what? if Sardinas is soft hitting? As I read the BREF stats of last season the average player in baseball last season would have had a .700OPS. 700. That's it. Sardinas can at least accumulate 700 OPS realistically-.325OB/.375Slg. He seems like the kind of hitter who could have a high BABIP with his super fast home plate to first base time that he may bat .325 a season meaning a .350 OB/.390slg would be reasonable and that is .740OPS, well above the AVG. He comes with high end defense ability so just being avg with his defense would give him a positive WAR I'm sure when on the field. And that's just 1 player. How important was Gallardo btw in WAR? roughly 2.3BREF WAR. He never exceeded 3WAR. For those not getting where this is going, Grienke was worth 4.3WAR last season, Kershaw 7.5. Gallardo's never exceeded 3! Sardinas was worth .2WAR and Knebel worth -.1WAR in their rookie years and 1/4-1/8 respectively worth of games...Kneble had a 1.63 Fip for his 6.23ERA. I believe the talent is there in that these two will provide 2+WAR this season equaling Gallardo's value. And thats not projecting big years by either of them. So can Jimmy Nelson equal Gallardo's value? He had 6/12 QS in his first stint as a SP for Milw. Those 6 QS stats were 38IP 15ER 3.55ERA. And just to add to the equation in Nelson's 12 starts he avg'd just 90pitches per start. 92.4 if you excuse his last start that was 4.1ip and 64 pitches. There's going to likely be 5 or 6 more pitches added to his avg start by logic which would mean maybe 2more batters faced/outs. Okay lets say avg .333ob. Would mean in 32starts 64PAs roughly 42 more outs or 1.3 more outs an outing which was at 5 2/3 avg last season. And thats him being a 4.93ERA-3.78Fip Starter. (sorry doing math on the fly some might follow some may just ??? attempting to reason numbers) For reasoning numbers Gallardo avg'd 100.5 pitches per Start. With 6.05IP avg per start. Nelson ought to equal Yo's IP output. How big a difference the ERA is, would be about the only concern. And the upside...If Nelson improves on his pitching ability it stands he'll outperform Yo's 2014 numbers. Which exactly explains why I believe Yo needed to be traded. 500k for a SP that will perform to what the team was going to pay 13mil to get.
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That is how I feel. Lohse/Garza/Peralta/Fiers/Nelson to me is a solid enough rotation to begin the season. If the team needs a quality arm for the Post-season run get it in July. The team's minor Leaguers can only increase their worth since none are top 100 in rankings. I think getting Zimmermann today would just cost so much in prospects-Taylor/Arcia/Coulter/ probably either Sardinas or Diplan. Those 4 maybe get the Nats talking. Its just super unrealistic. I'd rather give the Williams pitchers a chance to show off/ the RPs a chance to show off/ performance-wise Milw's prospects have to be about as low as possibly valued. I don't. Sardinas strong side was his RH hitting side. So here's your answer to the Gennett platoon partner. And if Segura continues to struggle the team has an answer to replace him at SS=Competition. A .700OPS Segura or better is a big upgrade for Milw. Segura had 0 competition for his position last season he couldn't lose his job. Kneble blew through the Minors doing what he's supposed to do which is be a Bullpen guy. The Brewers needed a Bullpen guy. They've been scooting by with kinda eh characters. The difference between Yo and Nelson as been stated is minimal. Honestly, my guess is Nelson will be a 4-5IP 4-5ERs pitcher and then a 7-8IP 0-1ER pitcher. This vs Gallardo's 5-7IP 3ERs consistency. I'd like to see some dominant performances over just a casual 6ip 2-3ERs outing by Yo. You're always relying on 9outs with a Yo start vs Nelson giving a 3-6outs bullpen taxing outing potential. So I'm not sure of the ML team being weaker in 2015. I guess if Fiers falters to a 4+ERA Starter than yes it does. But if Fiers is a 3.5ERA or better performer the team is just as strong today as it was a couple days ago.
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If this is it and "We are Set", WE are in trouble
brewcrewdue80 replied to rickh150's topic in Transaction Rumors & Proposals
It Happened! a GM move that adds depth to the 2015 team with more upside. A BP piece plus a Middle Inf utility. Depth that can withstand an injury now. With upside. So much needed after yesterday. -
Sardinas is thin for his frame. 150lbs ish at 6'1"?!? I've been told my frame at 5'10" to be around 170 to be average. He's supposed to be an athelete which imo means he should be slightly bigger than that suggestion and he's 3inches taller than me. So his frame guess wise ought to be 185-190. How much power does he gain with 35-40lbs added to that frame? If he fills out and goes from the 2-7HR type hitter he is today in to a 10-18HR Middle Infielder? plus maybe learn to add 2-3% to his BB rate? There's some excitement in that factor. It's like Diplan throwing 91-92 but has a building frame to project to 95-97MPH. Sardinas needs to learn how to get stronger. This is the kind of stuff like Carlos Gomez, takes some time to fill out and mature and start hitting HRs. He's 21 not 25-27 for a prospect. He has youth to grow as a player. He could remain rail thin though and be a AAAA bust utility. At some point he's either going to figure it out or get lost in the lights. I'm game for seeing the attempt, it'll be interesting to follow.
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Sardinas could easily displace Luis Jimenez imo. I'm guessing Sardinas can be a super Platoon mate for both Gennett vs LHP and Segura vs RHP. He'd just replace the positions they play. I don't whatsoever. To get Diplan a 1.3mil international prospect that was what? top 4 in 2013 via rankings? And meanwhile you add Kneble to the bullpen which is better than a 3mil retread as he'll just cost 500k. This is a HR deal for Milw.!!! Diplan was one of the young prospects I was suggesting we could hit one if we dealt for. They got their Super Switch-hitting utility, and filled in a big Bullpen piece for this year while doing so. The team is still 8mil richer after this trade.
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I was thinking the same thing. Epic Meltdown. Agreed. And being just as much conservative in the 2nd half that allows Seattle to make their comeback. 1-3yard dink/dunk passes just played straight in to a Seattle comeback. I am in Miami, sitting at a bar during the game and the only true Packer fan their while there was 3 "Retired age" Seattle fans sitting to my left. Having to listen to their laughter of enjoyment was depressing. Seattle's 2nd TD +2pt conversion and hearing that old man say "Good Bye" Damnitt that just bugs me. That is something that will play in my head for the rest of my life, and it's such a crappy memory because of him being so decrepitly old. Why did Burnett just fall down on the Int with 5min left bugs me too. Seeing that, seeing GB give the ball back to Seattle, it was that moment I thought of the InterTDception, and was feeling this downfall was about to play out. The 2pt conversion. 2 WRs only 2 defenders on the left side of the field..makes sense defensively. The Game-winning TD. Gotta love a defensive playcall where there is 0 Safetys helping cover Seattle's #1 WR target running a route deep down the middle of the field. If Capers could suck in the 2nd half with his defensive playcalls he made it happen. 3rd and 19. 3 rushers/non rushing watching for a Wilson takeoff, and then allowing a WR to get 5yards passed the 1st down marker wide open? Nice play call. How about the FG playcall. You're up 16-0 just give up the 3pts. Why wasn't there a safety just protecting against what happened from happening? AJ Hawk bites again. Leaves his man to make a tackle, I thought he was smart? Punter running for a first down is better than letting your defending TE position getting behind you free to run for a TD? Stick with him and when Ryan passes the line of Scrimmage break off from your coverage and tackle him before the endzone easily. Oh. Bostick. Come on what in the [language deleted by moderator] Hell? Jordy Nelson directly lining up behind you. There is w/o a doubt 100% in my mind the play is designed for him to take on a blocking role for Nelson and he absolutely failed at doing his job. #13 was 4 yards ahead a perfect defender to block and Bostick instead jumped up for the ball/shielding Nelson from an opportunity to catch it and immediately allows #13(his responsibility) to be in beyond perfect position to pick up a loose ball. Block #13 Bostick, and even if Nelson juggles the onside as you did, and he has a good chance to recover it still since #13 would have to have gotten by you to fall on the ball. FAIL It's just a comedy of errors/playcalling. Disney/Universal Studios/ any kind of Hollywood writer, couldn't write this script w/o being laughed off how unbelievable the mistakes/luck occurs to finish and lose this game. Any other ending of this game I'd be fine with. If GB lost like the Colts did to New England, I'd feel better than I do currently. The way this game finished is just the worst I can think of happening before this game happened. 12pt lead with 5min left and 1st and 10. You lose. You give the ball back, allow a TD, you fail on onside recovery, give up another TD, you fail on 2pt defense, tie the game, lose coin toss, give up HR TD reception to lose game. It just doesn't get worse than that. 5min with the ball and Super Bowl in sights.
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The Brewers can easily hit a HR with Texas' system. Imagine getting Travis Demeritte or Marcos Diplan? if they happen to miss on Alex Gonzalez or Nick Williams. Or like mentioned the Brewers go a safe route acquire Mazara and Kneble. Getting Sardinas to me may be one of the worst trade ideas out of what Texas can offer. Theres a reason the Rangers are offering him to teams, he's taking up space that he's not worthy of when compared to Andrus/Profar/Odor. Now then again, he does switch hit but is that LHB of his even worthwhile as a switch hitter? It'd be something if he could spell both Gennett and Segura being one. I proposed Alcantara from the Cubs as that idea. Maybe Sardinas can be that type? I guess there's value in that regard. Digging here. BA shows Sardinas last season in the Minors as a .286 AA/.292AAA vs RHP last season. In AAA and in 202 ABs it was .292/.314/.371 split as a LHB. The guy doesn't take Walks so he's a bottom of the order batter. Best Defensive Minor rated player in the Rangers org in 2012. So there's that too. Guess Sardinas reads as a super utility from both sides so wouldn't be the worst pickup. It's the perfect High Floor/low ceiling prospect to tie in a deal for Milw's FO. I hope they get something good on top though in return because Sardinas could very well be just a AAAA utility and Gallardo should be worth more than that. Just pumped a deal is going to made after begging there needs to be one of Lohse or Gallardo. It's actually going to happen. Cant wait.
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Don't forget Strasburg's Arby numbers come up 1 year less of performance due to TJ whereas Gallardo has been 180+IP since day 1. This kind of gives the idea why you don't sign a player long term after 1 or 2 years(Segura) because 1 year removed due to injury destroys that natural ladder movement in pay. You also gotta remember this is year 8 for Gallardo which would be FA year #2, maybe #1. Strasburg will be in the 20+mil payday when that year arrives.
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Happy for Aoki to go to a Winning franchise. He's the exact type of Giants acquisition that becomes a huge payoff during a season. You see these players on the roster and think, oh, weakness for the Giants, only to see them perform. If Aoki can bring a .350s OB to the top of that lineup when he plays he's doing that team right.
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Elvis Andrus 2.0 for one year of Gallardo would be an absolutely incredible return. I see the concern about him being too similar to Arcia, but Arcia is still a ways away and that's a problem I wouldn't mind having if it becomes an issue. Plus one of them can play 2B. Opinions differ, but I am excited about the more optimistic scouts (like Jason Parks, who knows the Rangers system extremely well and is someone whose opinion I respect) saying he has better tools than Profar and ranking him as a top-75 prospect in all of baseball. I don't think he has the raw power potential that Gomez did, but he sort of reminds me of a young Gomez only at SS rather than CF. Not a specific comparator, just that he's someone whose defense is ahead of his offense but the tools could catch up someday. Whoever mentioned Hector Gomez: Hector Gomez hit .196/.238/.255/.494 over 406 PA at AA Huntsville as recently as 2013. Hector Gomez is not the answer to anything. He probably shouldn't be on the major league roster and he certainly doesn't offer the long-term upside of someone like Sardinas. Granted, as with any prospect, Sardinas could tank and end up being Hector Gomez a few years from now. Yeah diss Gomez 2013 numbers. He returned from a groin injury. Ignore his 2014 campaign and his Fall League numbers? Gomez was essentially Sardinas some years ago in prospect ranks, only he kept getting injured. Now a man in his prime age, performs and it's ignored due to the injury season. Give the guy a chance, he doesn't cost much, has some power in his bat, something I'd be thrilled about when thinking Pinch Hitting. I just see Sardinas as clogging up the roster unless they are moving away from Segura and using Sardinas as potential SS for 2015 the moment Segura only shows SS grounding PAs.
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I've read the previous pages, why hasn't Nomar Mazara been mentioned? Seems to me Milw needs AAA OFs(and a future ML OF imo) and he'd fit the mold. He and Corey Kneble who reads as a potential future Closer? I get it that Sardinas is available but what does he offer that Hector Gomez doesn't at this point? In Kneble the Brewers get that RP they need plus closer potential. Gallardo makes so much sense for Texas, I'm sure I chimed in on it, as they need that 180+IP pitcher while also getting one who is young enough to offer a QO after the season which equals a draft pick. So to me Gallardo has to be worth 2 prospects. I'd be thrilled if it were Mazara+ because Milw is lacking in the OF department. And if Kneble can be the RP/Closer this team needs post 2015. Big Win while shedding 12.5mil-ish in salary. I don't get the need for the middle utility backup after what Gomez has done of late.(is he hurting? then makes sense) I just think upside is higher with Mazara than it would be Sardinas. I wont be upset if the team gets Jackson, Gonzalez, or Thompson. Texas has so many high end prospects this deal should be a win for Milw somewhere.
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If this is it and "We are Set", WE are in trouble
brewcrewdue80 replied to rickh150's topic in Transaction Rumors & Proposals
I've been in Gennett's corner. I've written how his OPS vs LH SPs is more than respectable...in a very, very small sample albeit, but at the same time the opponents of him batting vs LHP use the 1 Single AB numbers he's faced in Relievers in a small sample as the exact reason Gennett needs to be Platooned. All I know, is Gennett has a slap hitters approach at the plate. He does go the opposite field and clearly makes attempts to. Now taking a few more pitches vs swinging so early would be nice to improve the OB% but he is what he is which is an above avg hit tool batter. If he hit 10 more HRs a season he'd be a clear high hit tool batter, vs slapping 10 more singles up the middle or to the opposite field. That's what HRs do to scout rankings. It'd be like me down-ranking Tyrone Taylor due to the fact I don't see him ever creating HR power with his approach. Who cares if he carries a .295BA. If it doesn't come with a .355+OB or Elite Defense, it's just Eh. The whole idea of getting Gennett a platoon mate after last season seems foolish to me if he only plays 2b. Or even say 2b+ 1 other position. Because 2 things: If he's cheap and relatively young, who did you give up in your minors to get him? Or, 2, if he's a veteran player you're now paying more money for 1/4-1/3rd a season of that man's service more money than you are you're Gennett. If he's good against LHP, w/o an everyday job, what use do you have of him the other 115 games a season taking up 1 of your team's 25 roster spots? When I'm building a Baseball team, taking a weak hit in offensive production from a position, I'd start with 2b, then Catcher, and then SS. These are positions that aren't filled with amazing everyday players over 30 teams. Jose Altuve led the AL at 2b as an everyday player with an .830OPS. .830. not .900+, barely above .800. So to me Gennett is once again a player I'm more than happy to live with getting 40games vs LH SP vs finding a Platoon mate. when he's clearly a top notch LH vs RH Pitcher. As for Smith, I know I commented in at least one game if not two for RRR to switch to a RH Pitcher when the LH batter got on base and the next batter got on base. Smith's platoon splits were awful as the season wore on and it cost the Brewers mutliple games being used vs Righties vs switching it up. Now, early in the year his stuff was good vs both sides, I expect to find out early in the season if he's just a Loogy or can be counted on vs both sides til he wears down again or not. Learning Experience? Just like Gennett. Anyway on the homefront of the not moves we're in trouble, the rumor is out that Atl has traded Gattis to the Astros for Mike Folty and Ruo Riuz a 3b I was begging the Brewers could acquire in a move as a hopeful use past 2015. Another move missed on and it was done by the Braves who are rebuilding sorta. What Milw can do with certain players the FO hasn't attempted it appear. The move by the Braves is a very good one imo for a 28year-old player that has less than 2 seasons worth of games to his name and a lack of a defensive position to tie himself to long term. What Atl has done with their moves I see as fantastic. They've opened new doors to remain and be competitive, shed salary and a so called rebuild- doesn't look like it will take years to happen but maybe just this season. Lets say Miller improves, lets say Folty improves, that two top notch arms with many years of team control....Anyway going to end rant. -
I believe that wide stance gives him more upper body control to slap at pitches but he sacrifices power big time. I'd wonder on his doubles stats just how many are the type that go to the gaps off the wall vs. the types that are hit down the line or beaten out for a double? What's a .290 avg hitter with this stance and changed for more power, I fear throws his timing way off and he becomes a .215 hitter with less doubles and maybe 7-10 more HRs. Worse BB rate and K Rate. That happens, he's not a ML player whatsoever as his OB won't even crack .300 then. Can you live with a guy who had 165hits in a season with 142 of them being singles as your CF? A .285/.320/.345 hitter? That's my realistic projection for him without some substantial progress from where he stands today.
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BA Brewers top 10 prospect list
brewcrewdue80 replied to miggs721's topic in Brewers Minor League Talk
All I know, is that you can look at the Splits of the hitters. And the man I'm drooling about Arcia had a .290Avg vs RHP and I think like .282 vs LHP. You look down his monthly numbers and it reads very nicely as well. Consistency with a flash of upside in June with 3HRs slg over .500. I cannot believe he's still not cracking top 100 lists in all of Baseball. Arcia is far and away the Brewers best prospect not only in today's talent, but to help the Brewers Major League team the soonest. Jungmann may help the team in 2015 but not with the impact Arcia will provide. Coulter had nice splits vs LHP, and vs RHP honestly. You look at triple the ABs and he's hitting triple the 2bs triple the HRs just some less Singles. Strong sign for his bat. I'm not impressed with Devin Williams at this point. Just 66IP last season in Rookie ball. It'll be 2020 at that rate graduating levels before he makes the ML squad, which makes him 25, 26 like so many Brewer Prospects to make a ML team. Jungmann will be 25, Wagner turns 24 moving to AA, Taylor William will be 23...All these pitching prospects are going to be 25 when they make the ML team. One holds hope the Medeiros, gains more control of his nasty stuff and catapults up the system when that happens to see ML action before the age of 23. Taylor shouldn't be at the top of this list especially ahead of Arcia, or Coulter for that matter. His bat won't meet expectations, and at best will be a Jean Segura clone. His ranking has to clearly be on his Defensive prowess, with hopes that being young he finds ways to hit 10more HRs in a season. The impact talent is still lacking and thats why a guy like Gilbert Lara cracks #5 and Wang is at #6. Lara to me got some of that ranking because Milw paid 3mil for him. That's more money than any other Brewer prospect on this list. Wang has the velocity, and showed the Control which has seemingly been what holds Brewer pitching prospects back. That's why I see him ahead of the others. Wagner and T. Williams are nice and all but again, they're looking to graduate best case age 25 season. Rookie struggles result in age 26 season they begin to catch on so it'd be age 27 they begin doing at least ML Avg stuff. It'd be different if Wagner or Williams were doing CJ Edwards type numbers: 237IP-140hits-91BBs-294Ks! by age 22. That's the kind of numbers to get excited about. Medeiros I believe can become that type of pitcher. Medeiros imo should be on the list instead of Devin Williams who should be outside the top 10 at the moment. Devin Williams and Gatewood could make the list truly exciting in 2015 if they make better progress when paired with Lara, Arcia, Medieros, Harrison, and Wang. That would give the team 7 strong prospects, young who show very nice impact potential. -
Harang to Phillies - 1-year/$5 million
brewcrewdue80 replied to Matt Breen's topic in Milwaukee Brewers Talk
Aaron Harang is a #5 SP who miraculously pitched what? 5 starts to begin the season better than Clayton Kershaw? Then promptly gave up 9runs in a game. Last season statistically was his best season by far since 2007. 7years ago. It took Harang his best season in 7years to be just barely better than the NL avg Starter in ERA. He's a guy you just abuse for IP and ignore his results. It worked last season for Atlanta who only had Harang due to Medlen/Beachy having TJ. For the Phillies the deal makes sense, because honestly, does one see them winning 78game next year? He gets an under .500 team through the season if you're lucky. I'm sure he's headed for a record like 6-14 with a 4.8-5.4ERA for Philly in 180maybe IP for them. I also wouldn't be surprised if he's DFA by the AS break. Atl only paid Harang 1mil last season because he's exactly that. A SP that you rent and hope and get rid of when it fails. As to picking up Roberto Hernandez/Fausto Carmona. No. This is a man who went 29starts and lasted 162IP in them with a Fip that approached 5 and a whip near 1.4. The Brewers have 6SPs on the roster, if they trade one of them they still have 5 with Jungmann not going to long behind to likely make Carmona-like stats. Considering all the moves made, any move made on Brewers pitching I'm going to guess is made with a ML player sent Milw's way in return. I don't see them sending away their #1/#2 in the Rotation for a Minor League player with this Playoff team makeup. Now of course that's different if they made that move and were a team that went out and signed Scherzer or Shields. The team isn't making moves to build for the future when they are positioned in the present. At the AS break and they're failing then it'll happen. -
You know, replied to the Pastornicky suggestion and looked some more at Hector Gomez's stats, and maybe Milw could have something with him? I don't know what his deal was in 2012 and 2013 and maybe one could say the finish of 2011? Was it injury after injury? He's 26 turning 27, was someone that cracked Baseball America's top 100 radar in 2008 after his age 19 season only to play 1! game in 2008 for age 20 season. 83games then for age 21 back above .700OPS. and then followed that up in 2010 with 27games played! 2011 he cracked Colorado's ML team briefly only to be traded to Milw at some point in 2012 and appear once again in a low 26! games total. Now I don't know what the Brewers have since his 2013 was below Mendoza line batting but managed over 100games. And 2014 Gomez picked up .300+OPS pts and FINALLY played 100+Games for the first time in B2B seasons in his Professional Career. So maybe he's a guy who's promise never fulfilled, can actually just be a late-bloomer? Keeping him healthy on the field is the toughest part and certainly a concern for reliability. But, could it be? The Brewers aren't making an Veteran Bonifacio type moves, because they are going to stick with Gomez while healthy to backup Segura giving the young man his chance? I'm actually turning the page and at least feeling semi positive about having him on the 25man. Not confident in Herrera or Jimenez. I guess between Jimenez and Rogers as backup 3b you go with the better defender as both with the bat offer similar looking numbers(Rogers more BBs) Jimenez more doubles hitting ability. Though Rogers has 1b experience over a season. So I don't know if Jimenez will fit along with Herrera. Maybe the backups are set and we don't need anyone. Parra/Gomez/Rogers at the moment.
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Tough to say on Pastornicky. If you look at the Range Factor he seems to possess for both 2b and SS, by the numbers he appears to have 25% less range than your typical SS, and 20% below your typical 2b. So that makes him a defensive liability fielding. His bat is also quite soft in terms of power. I think he appears to be relegated to being a single defensive position and that is 2b. If that's the case, his utility value lacks quite a bit for what he offers. No Power Bench bat, not good defensive metrics and can only be relied to play 2b, would be hard to pick up. He'd have to possess some belief he can backup at SS to have value. I think I'd rather stick with Hector Gomez who provides at least a little Power with SS backup ability and find the Super Utility elsewhere.
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The thing about looking to use Herrera/Gomez/Jimenez is that as hitters: Herrera needs the confines of the hitter friendly PCL to hit over .700 OPS No Power, CS 33% of the time in the minors! Nothing about him reads as anything other than a AAA to maybe AAAA type players. Gomez may have at least a little upside to look at based on his AAA PCL numbers in 2014. But he doesn't walk often at all, he could be a .270/.288 peak hitter. With hoping the power shows up to make up for the lack of OB skills. Not very promising there. and Jimenez/Rogers are 1b/3b options. No SS/2b history between them. Rogers at least offers some value OB%-wise while Jimenez is of the lower under 5% BB variety. Considering the 1b/3b Starters will be Lind/ARam it's not the worst roster spot to be used with either Rogers or Jimenez as a newcomer Minor League Backup. So really this signing and lack thereof on Milw's side boils down to Emilio or Gomez/Herrera? Plus he has OF ability. I just think the team could have used this guy vs. attempting two projects under this teams makeup/circumstance. If the team had to rely on the utility for the homestretch for say a 60day DL stint between Gennett or Segura, I'd have preferred to see Bonifacio take the plate vs the other 2. Just because the Floor is known and it's not bottomed out, as the risk could be in Gomez/Herrera.
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Transactions/Moves You Want Back...
brewcrewdue80 replied to Harold Hutchison's topic in Milwaukee Brewers Talk
Molitor is a clear choice. The 2009/2010/2011 1st round Draft selections. Or for that matter the Kyle Lohse signing costing the 2013 1st rd choice. And 2012 is to be determined with Coulter hanging on hopes that the Franchise didn't waste 5 straight seasons of 1st rd picks on complete duds vs. serious talent taken near them. 2009: Nick Franklin(ss/2b) 2010: Christian Yelich(1b/of 2011: Jose Fernandez(SP) and Sonny Gray(SP) 2012: Joey Gallo(3b), Lance McCullers(SP), Jose Berrios(SP) 2013: Tim Anderson(SS)/Marco Gonzales(SP)/ or Hunter Harvey(SP)? Imagine those names. Franklin could have been a Platoon bat for 2b/SS in 2015 as a switch hitter Yelich would just reside at 1b w/o the need for Lind Fernandez and Gray would be a formidable #1/2 SP on a playoff team. Gallo would be the 3b replacement for ARam McCullers could be a 4th SP option with upside or potential Closer Berrios has the Appearance of being at least a solid #2 with maybe Ace potential. Gonzales already made it to the StL pitching staff. Had 2011 occured no need for Lohse and he's had. Or Tim Anderson a solid looking SS. Or Hunter Harvey another SP with Front-Line capability. Can you even imagine that SP staff? Fernandez, Gray, Peralta, Berrios, and Harvey in 2016? McCullers tossing 97-98MPH heat as Closer? Yelich to bat Leadoff at 1b? How about Gallo at 3b in 2015 and beyond in the lineup? Yeah our 1st round draft choices of late are what I want back after Molitor's departure. So includes removing Lohse deal. Especially since it appears to not be providing the team with any replacement player in trade due to our poor GM's ability. Yes the man has provided the team with depth at SP, but w/o a Playoff appearance to show for it, all he really has cost the team is the pick, plus top 10 draft selections in 2014 and 2015 with his above avg ability earning more wins than replacement, and that in 2014 and 2015 for that matter has left the office with the lack of trading away assets(Gallardo/ARam/Parra/Broxton and so on) to rebuild for say 2015-2017 when the young prospects if selected graduated to the Majors. Coulter/Jungmann and Roache have a lot to prove to make this rant a little bit null. But man, just an AS team with Gomez/Braun/Lucroy with Davis/Gennett/Segura and those picks instead. I friggin love Yelich and we passed on him to select Covey in 2010. Which if happened removes Fernandez I guess but leaves Gray. Which at least ends the whole Fernandez wasn't signing for any other team debate. -
The Brewers are probably about maxed out on payroll, so for them to make a move like this, they'd need to jettison payroll elsewhere. Off the top of my head, if they were looking to save money this offseason (not going into past moves) they could have: 1) Not done the Lind deal 2) Not re-upped Ramirez 3) Not re-upped Parra (or traded him after signing him) 4) Traded an expensive veteran for either prospects or pre-arby guys to save money. The most widely discussed names have been Gallardo, Lohse, Garza and Gomez. I like the thought of having someone with Bonafacio's flexibility on the roster, but unless you make one of the aforementioned moves, there just doesn't appear to be any payroll room. 3million for a utility player of potential like Bonifacio(if not on the field can steal bases in late game situations) should not be concerned in an overall team payroll status. Especially considering that if Milw tanks in 2015 he among others can be jettisoned off around the trade deadline to save a lot on payroll. If Bonifacio's utility skills results in the team making the playoffs, I'm sure the 3mil is more than made up in playoff revenues(as evidence by picking up Broxton for the stretch run) And isn't 3mil below the ML avg for a player? I mentioned my Alcantara love for a super utility who bats from both sides, that is what Bonifacio is. Bonifacio is a better RH bat than LH bat and obviously isn't superior in any form with the bat but also isn't going to be clueless and would have provided the team with at least a Gennett Platoon fix has proposed needed. Bonifacio's LHB vs RH pitching while poor would still be an upgrade to what Segura provided and at least would have given the team a little more competition for Segura at SS with being that. Now, again Alcantara is better imo than Bonifacio so not acquiring Bonifacio can still give me the hope a smart GM goes out and gets him instead. But Emilio would have been a fairly ideal fit for the team to cover 2b/SS and even rare OF or 3b situations if needed that it's hard to say they possess currently with H. Gomez, Luiz Jimenez, Ellian Herrera or in a 1b/3b situation Jason Rogers. You know your Floor with Emilio and know he can provide game changing ABs in any single game. He had 5 games of 4hits+ 5 games of 3hits. 10 games out of 90 games started he had a huge Batting day. Can any of those 4 provide 10games total this season with 3hit+ ability? Herrera had 2 games last season. No one else had a 3hit game in their brief ML stints. What do you prefer? 1-4 ability constantly? or 3 for 4 or 4/5 ability once every 10 games started and 5-36 ability the other 9 games? That could be a curious debate to propose. As for Bonifacio, I believe it really boils down to what one believes may happen for Milw at 2b/SS or maybe even 3b. Should Gennett have a Platoon partner? Who do you want to give those 40 some games to? And would the real Jean Segura please stand up? Or just sit down? Do you want to give the starting SS job to Gomez/Jimenez or Herrera? Bonifacio offers a safe albeit not too high ceiling option to play if needed. Whereas, the others it could get ugly quick. Or maybe it doesn't matter as both Gennett and Segura will produce better than expected and ARam/Rogers will do fine together at 3b. Bonifacio isn't needed. I'm in the boat that Gennett will be fine but don't believe Segura or ARam will be fine for a full season and would like a safe Backup option vs. AAAA guys maybe. So Bonifacio would have made a lot of sense to acquire of any type of moves for Milw. Pretty much this leaves the idea that there's no move coming by the FO barring injuries during ST. And that leaves the opinion like JohnBriggs'. How can one believe the team will get over the hump with basically the same roster as last season only possessing more expensive Lind vs Platoon Overbay/Reynolds and more expensive Broxton vs KRod? And this comes in an offseason where multiple teams have made multiple moves to change their teams, yet Milw wasn't a part of any of them. Who pitches #5 for Milw? Peralta(certainty buy highest Fip of trio), Fiers, or Nelson(best team prospect graduated in 2014)? You must bench 1 of them to fit Gallardo/Lohse/Garza. Seems really poor to me to have a 6th SP worthy of ML Starts with Jungmann in waits to be a 7th? And it's just crickets on the Milw Offseason front. Serious question marks for Utility and the SP situation and neither addressed in trade to this point. Bonifacio was the best option to fill the Utility w/o trade. How long will fans hang around buying tickets for 2015 if they aren't above .500 come AS Break? This is a team believed to be 80ish wins so that is .500. Fans are going to be wise on this team resembling everything the 2014 possessed only to collapse. How can they pull themselves to a 14games or higher above .500 record if under .500 at that point? 87 or 88Wins is what it takes to make the Playoffs generally now for NL. So 87-75 or 88-74. AS break will be after 90 games. so 45-45 record. You're asking for 42-30 or 43-29 finish. If the team is 45-45 I'm guessing nobody is flourishing to make one believe a charge is coming. No Khris Davis .850+OPS No Segura .775+OPS. No Braun above .900 OPS again. Peralta isn't better than a 3.45ERA SP stud on the rise. Cause if any of those 4 were to be true, one would believe Milw would be better than .500 at 90games. Monty you're the money payroll man with opinions on running it. How well will the team finish in attendance if they trudge along as .500 only team w/o the 12+games above .500 record to work with as last season?
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Rosario's Home/Away Splits: .305/.346/.540/.886 vs. .242/.266!/.424/ .690 Now for more fun with numbers. Of his Away numbers, Miller Park was his best ballpark away from home in the NL: 8games: .333/.353/.606 Good The Bad? The other 4 NL Central ballparks he didn't crack the Mendoza line batting a combined .165/.200/.252 in 26 career games. He's a negative run factor defensively as a Catcher. Which then relegates him to 1b as the Rockies have begun doing. Can somebody explain to me how his numbers away from Coors is anywhere worthy of a 1b hitter? Maldonado has a home/away split of .228/.308/.381/.688 home and .223/.273/.338/.612 away. Maldonado hasn't flashed anything offensively like Rosario's Coors numbers to see his pricetag get to be too much in the next 3 years. Maldy will be a very strong defensive catcher with a know what you're getting bat. It's above the Mendoza line. Rosario's away from home .690 OPS? being poor defensively? Based on Rosario's career on the road and Maldonado's you're looking at a little better BA, worse OB and stronger Slg that translates between the two's career as being 4.5 more doubles and 5HRs in a season. Now are those 10-12 extra base hits by Rosario/19 more Bases worth the added Runs offensively over what Rosario costs the team defensively over Maldonado? I don't get the point to make a move for a Catcher with Maldonado doing an excellent job defensively as a backup. Lucroy is an All-Star Catcher and as I start at Maldonado's 200 game career on BREF, he's been worth 2.2WAR. What more do you want from your Backup Catcher? He's the perfect homegrown Backup that should remain that way so long as he can remain a good defensive catcher. For other reference I look to the other 4teams in the division: StL: had Tony Cruz -1WAR and AJ Pierzinski -.6WAR as backup Catchers Pitts: Chris Stewart .6WAR and Tony Sanchez .1WAR as backup Catchers Cincy: Brayan Pena -.5WAR and Tucker Barnhart .2WAR as backups. ChiCubs: John Baker -1WAR as backup. Maldonado is not a problem needing to be solved. If/when Lucroy or Maldonado himself go down for a lengthy period then it's time to address the Catcher situation. Personally, the team has more to be concerned with a backup at SS/3b and maybe 2b for 2015 than trying to remove games caught by Maldonado while Lucroy either rests or plays the RH bat of a 1b Platoon. Also, what of the Ryan Braun to 1b suggestions? How about getting him in some games at 1b as the RH bat as a slow progression to that position? The team as options for the RH Bat at 1b. and are held up strongly with their backup Catcher imo. Their need is a super utility who bats from both side effectively honestly. (of course I say this after the Swisher suggestion but that's a buy low much more proven hitter than Rosario situation) And Emilio Bonifacio went to the White Sox for 3mil+4mil option, he one who's been chimed here many a time. Again, if I ran the office, I'd give up something solid to get Arismendy Alcantara from the Cubs. due to batting from both sides and his super utility abilities. He's young team controlled and to me more valuable than Tyrone Taylor's future worth to the Brewers will be. I'd cash in on the #1 or #2 prospect value Taylor holds today because in a couple years he's going to fall behind the likes of Harrison/Medeiros/Lara/Gatewood and who knows what other surprise prospect overtakes him(pick from 2015 draft?) I don't believe Taylor will be in MLB in 2015 obviously but also not in 2016(not as obvious but good chance) so you're looking at entering 2017 season with him ranked where on your prospect list? To me behind those 4=#5 at best. Use his #1 prospect status today to get something of true value before he becomes a player traded for 1 or 2 years of a mid-tier ML RP.

