brewcrewdue80

Anyone wanna go o/u Braun's RBI at end of season? 132?

My guess is the Blue Jays will Claim Gonzalez when the Brewers Waive him to make space for when ARam returns. That's been their MO these past 6months is to claim about everyone right? I'm surprised they don't have their answer from all their claims already.

Looking at the salaries for today and the next 4years for SS we're talking Tulo/Reyes as 16mil+ in pay SS. Andrus with that ridiculous contract that eventually pays him 15mil+. And then nothing really over 11mil. In Tulo's case he got his contract extension on year 5 of service time. This is a 6+WAR SS who that close to FA maxxed out at 20mil. Segura is a different type of hitter no one thus far has pointed to him becoming a 25HR or more a season hitter. From where I see currently, 12mil a year seems to be the high salary range for Segura in his FA years so long as he's a 4WAR or better player. If the team can sign him to where he's not taking on more than 7.5mil/yr through age 30 then that deal makes sense. I just don't think Segura can drastically raise his price now through next season on any contract signed through his age 30year. Aside from the top 3 at SS the big paydays aren't there. Even Jimmy Rollins maxxed out at 11mil in FA for age 33,34,35 So I'm looking at when we get to age 31/32/ and 33 seasons? If we sign today vs. after two seasons, I still don't see Segura being paid any higher than 10mil a year towards those final 3seasons. Agreeing to that long of a deal though, again injury risk. We're looking at what 4-8mil range of savings maybe vs the guaranteed 10mil costs? 1year out wipes out 2years of savings. I think it's prudent to get a larger sample size of what kind of hitter Segura will be before determining the length and amount of a guranteed contract we'd sign.

On paper this pitching matchup should favor the Brewers by quite a bit. Look forward to #8!!

This is great to see. As a sorta hater towards Gomez, I'm glad he's proving me wrong and getting it done. Hope to see a cpl more of these by season's end!

Logan said: I think that strategy is backwards. We can pay for average MLB players. We can't afford MLB stars unless they come up through our system. It sounds like a few of the guys drafted last year might be really good so I am hoping things turn around a bit. This is exactly what I am thinking. When the club can afford the 10mil contracts but not the 15mil+ then to me they need to draft strictly through the roof ceiling types and not lower ceiling but high floor types. If they bust they bust but hitting on one of these High Ceiling guys sets a club up long term to build around like Braun. Like others said 2011 going with Bradley/Jungmann vs drafting Fernandez/Guerrieri. HS arms with high ceiling just lengthy development time. BTW. How do you pass up a pitcher with the last name Fernandez? Don't AS come attached to that name? Anyway, I'd draft strictly to fill my team up with the highest talent not the higher floor. Again think what the Fernandez/Barnes or Guerrieri draft duos would have this team looking. Lohse wouldn't be signed and kept the 17th pick. That's a pick + the 12mil/yr to go towards insuring long term success elsewhere.

Of course - you'd ideally like a batter with ample patience to hit 8th due to being pitched around. I just have a strange feeling that if Weeks would do the "required" job, walking a ton in front of the pitcher, people would still complain. The complaints are coming due to him batting under .200 for an extended period of time once again and that so many ABs end with a Strikeout. Can't continue at #8 unless that under .200 continued and the K rate continued showing the inability to get things turned around. I wouldn't complain with him 6 or lower in the order but what he's doing at the plate doesn't deserve being in the top half of the order. Someone pointed out Aoki's struggles in 10 games which for Weeks is fortunate because that's reduced the number of added runners on base that with this stretch would emphasize how poor Weeks performance has been. I just want some kind of wakeup call sent Weeks' way. If DFA isn't an option then benching him like I suggested except to face Lefty starters. It's just all the signs are there for a .151 BA for Weeks in to the All-Star break once again moreso than a return of his career .250BA.

Soriano just got his first HR and RBI the other day. Stanton got his first RBI last night etc. While I'm not a huge Weeks fan I don't think you want to go over a cliff with it, he certainly should not be DFA'd as you suggest. The solution ought to be. When ARam comes back AGonz is sent down/waived. Gennett is called up and they platoon at 2b Lefty to Righty/Righty to Lefty. Weeks' K numbers at least are down vs Leftys. It would be best of both worlds giving Gennett experience and removing Weeks from this ever growing K Rate vs Rightys.

This is my only guess in that regard is RRR doesn't want to mix up the lineups day to day. Seems it's Lucroy/Maldanado 5th. Gomez 7th. 6&8 the mix of Yuni/Gonz. Putting Lucroy 4th and the days Maldy catches then bats 4th? Makes no sense so RRR would have to shift the lineup to accomodate. Which shouldn't be a problem but stubbornly he seems stuck in his ways. Simply Switch Gomez/Weeks for all I care at this point if he cant be flexible in his decisions on a day to day basis. It's just really how laughable is it to watch the lineup card get put up and Weeks sits 4th in order? 0HRs 2Rbi. From your cleanup spot? I guess some other horror telling to me in Weeks' downward spiral is that he doesn't even look plattonable vs Lefties only. He's just about as bad and as high a K rate looking at last year's splits. So, no silver lining to a solution for Weeks. It's just sit back and enjoy the poor showings.....Or DFA him...watch as Toronto claims him. Problem solved.

Yeah you're right but in Aoki's case he has 2ks in that time. 1hr. So that's 4-35 on Balls hit in play. A .114avg. Again, the expected norm is .280+ more around .300. Weeks' issues arise from his Ks and not putting the ball in play. You can't fix a slump on the BABIP when you're not giving yourself many opportunities. Aoki's numbers will come around. Everyone said Weeks' would last season when his BABIP was sitting low and it did. Aoki is fine, he will be a .280hitter when it's said and done.

Give me a rough estimate what you believe his first 3FA years would cost today with an extension vs waiting til end of this season. til end of next season. til his 1st Arb year? Again based on Castro comparison and you have to believe he's the exact type of mold Segura's agent would figure to work on: It's 9,10,11mil his FA years. If the club waits through the end of next season meaning 2years service time. Is Segura really going to jump to something like 14/16/16 type of 3years buyout 3years FA? And if we're talking 10/11/12 vs 9/10/11 signing him today vs end of his 2nd season. You're looking at that 1mil difference being made up in the Pre-Arb/Arb years. If the team can get Segura to sign a contract say 2014-2022 at 44-50mil then do so. That's the long term deal where I see money being saved.

Well, so long as Henderson keeps converting, this thread is complete currently.

Can you explain the occasions Weeks was a reason behind their success though? It's mostly been Segura and Braun. followed by Lucroy,Gomez,Yuni. As far as plating runs that meant something. 3-25 .120avg 4bbs-9ks(36%) 3runs. 2rbis. Lucroy: 9-24 .375 0bbs-3ks. Big difference though. 5runs 3HRs 7rbi. Gomez:12-23 .522 0bbs-4ks. 6rs, 2hrs, 3rbis. Yuni B:6-23 .261 1bbs-5ks 4rs, 2hrs, 8rbis. Lets get him even more depressing numbers Starters in that time: 3-12 .250 2rs 1hr 2rbi. So the Brewers have won "Despite" Weeks not 'In Spite' of him. Yep, Our Pitchers have as many hits in half the ABs as Weeks and equal in RBI in this 7game streak. Weeks has batted cleanup in every game of this streak and the Brewers have gotten better production from their Pitchers. This isn't a case of nobody getting on base for him to drive in. Braun has been pitched around/walked numerous times. Segura's been OB like crazy. He's not getting it done and clearly by Gomez's or Lucroy's numbers one of those two should be batting cleanup. Reward Gomez for his play he's earned it. Edit adding: fun to look at the on pace numbers for Weeks: 10HRs 29Rbi 229Ks. 114hits. There's a good one: over/under on Weeks hits this year? 128? and I'm considering under on that number.

I hope this thread doesn't jinx our Pitchers! I'm going to think that after last season and the Walk fest we witnessed from our relievers the start we're seeing thus far seems amazing and refreshing. I don't care about the mechanics side and our assumption it leads to less Walks,more Ks and more HRs. How about a direct correlation to the transferring within the batters in the League K'ing more, less BA, but with higher HRs? I remember the days of having Jose Hernandez and the 180ks threshold he approached being such a huge deal. Now? seems like every team has their own Jose Hernandez in their lineup. Oddly, something yesterday's game I paid attention to in the box score was that we threw less pitches than the Cubs' Pitchers. For us Walking less players whenever I look at the box score, it seems like it's 155pitches for Brewers 110 for our opponent...roughly just saying. I mean nothing like jumping on Jeff Samardija?sp for 5 runs in 5innings was it? and he not having any problem getting through 2 more innings. Yet if that occured for us I cant help but imagine the Brewers pitcher being lucky to go 5 having accumulated 95-105pitches to do so. And to me it's teams like the Brewers who are filled with 1st pitch attackers vs. pitch takers that result in the lower walks. And when you look around the NL, how many true stud players are there that makes a pitching shake in their shoes currently? Players you just can't pitch to? Pujols is gone, Bonds,Sosa,McGuire are long gone. We have Braun thankfully. I can only think of Troy Tulowitzki when healthy and Joey Votto. And Votto, is losing some of his edge by not hitting for power. Bryce Harper I feel will take over soon but still think he's going to be attacked when pitched to. You take other top notch players and they are ones with 160+ks. You're just as likely to strike them out as they may get a hit. It's a different era right now with Pitching because hitters are allowed to strikeout more than they used to and try to work through the slumps that comes with striking out too much. And hitters just aren't HOF rambant as they were 10years ago. I expect our trend to continue with less walks not fully on ability of the pitchers but the lack of ability on hitters.

7 in a Row Dance^ Dance! http://i296.photobucket.com/albums/mm171/chrisdotwynn/VanDammeBandA.gif

It was the first half of the season last year the Brewers had arguably the worst production from their 1,2 in order due to Weeks/Gomez/Morgan. Fast forward a year and looky who has the worst production from their 4 hitter and who resides there? Weeks. So Yes, it's far past the time of removing Weeks at the 4th spot. He didn't deserve it in the first place. It should have been Lucroy's from the beginning. I also don't get the benching of Lucroy while hot just because it's a day game. They don't play til 10pm our time Monday night vs a non-division foe. But hey, lets continue trying to give away games within our division...Cubs just so happen to be doing a better job!

Finally someone who acknowledges Weeks' true value. Do the math. 30% or higher K rate with say 20HRs and your League Avg .300BABIP should amount to a .240 Avg at best. Weeks BABIP has declined 3seasons in row and is under .300 so far this year. He needs the 20 or more HRs just to have a shot at .240. I see no chance for him to bat higher than .230. Who would want him? All it takes is one major injury to a 2b on a contending team to place the call saying he's available. How about flipping the Weeks' for eachother with Oakland? and pick up some of that tab owed to Weeks.

And what seasons have ANY of those players ever put up GREAT seasons for their position? Sarcasm on the situation.

How many Ks for Weeks vs HRs by Lucroy does it take to switch the two in order? Take away the 2:2 BB/K in first 5games by Weeks and he has 19ks in 38ABs with just 3BBs. In fact Weeks K'ing so much I'd go Lucroy 4th Gomez 5th Weeks 6th at this point again in that 6th in order spot I think his K'ing profile deserves. Weeks is on his way to another .150-.189 100game run and to think he turns it around when he Ks well over 30% of his ABs is going to cost us games. He doesn't deserve a long leash to bat at the top of the order when there are far better hitters deserving to bat up in the order. Weeks is Bum 2.5 approaching bum 2. I said it earlier he's more deserving of batting #8 just to keep that BB% up. But God forbid we let that happen when we pay him what we do to bat 8th. It's time to move on with the Weeks love it's long overdue. While I don't love Gomez at least he's trended in the right direction the last 3seasons. If Weeks is still batting under .220 and K'ing 35% or better, When Hart/Ramirez Returns whichever happens first I'd seriously consider putting Yuni at SS,Segura at 2b and bench Weeks. How's that for a Wakeup call?

Well, the rain out yesterday puts Thornburg in the picture whereas Burgos on Saturday would be pitching on 4days rest. Pushing Thornburg and everyone back 1 day due to rain out puts Thornburg's turn on Saturday then Burgos on Sunday. Either way I approve the move to send Fiers down and let 1 of these two get their chance to shine. Fiers hasn't been right for awhile now. And rather than continue getting shelled in the bigs, I'm hoping he overmatches the AAA hitters and finds his groove. It's just better to see Fiers work through this down there vs. giving up 4-7Runs in under 4ip and less than 90pitch outing when removed from the carnage. Hoping he goes down gets 90pitch outings pitching in to the 7th innings. Meanwhile Thornburg or Burgos can just continue with 5-6ip outings like they do at AAA and if they ever got in to the 7th inning that has to be a huge confidence builder on either. I only see positives by doing this. Fiers will either work himself from his funk or not but it's not damaging the big club anymore. The club gives experience to Burgos/Thornburg and like in the basketball anology if they mess up you sit them down tell them what went wrong work on it, send then back up. They'll at least have more video to digest vs Big League competition and how to improve upon it. Fiers has that, Thornburg has some, it's time Burgos gets some.

That Deal PFx1 would be great if could be worked out. Now we're talking 8years/31.5mil+9th at 8mil. But that's light for Segura's side isn't it? Here's the real template to probably compare in contract talks: Starlin Castro: Cubs signed him after Pre-Arb #2 Deal works like this:7 guaranteed years 5mil/5mil/6mil/7mil/9mil/10mil/11mil 8th year option @16mil with 1mil buyout. So taking the pre-arb 1mil for his first 2years. Buyout next pre arb and all three arb years at a total of 23mil. Then buy out next three FA years at 30mil with the 4th year option. And that is how I see Segura comparing to only a year older than Castro when he began. And this is the exact kind of deal I'd expect the Brewers to work out as it fits that whole 10mil/yr FA years they've used on Hart/Weeks. Now it shows on BRef 2012-19 being 8years 60.57mil but my math comes to 53.57mil Maybe there's 7mil in incentives somewhere. Or the club waits. Austin Jackson who was 2nd in ROY Has over 600PA all his Pre-Arb seasons and his 1st Arb year was settled at 3.5mil. I don't know what more you can ask from Jackson last season leading up to his 1st Arb year but he only got 3.5mil after his 3rd straight 5+WAR season. This means roughly 5mil for his first 4seasons. Vs. the Cubs going 11mil with Castro. Year 5 is 6mil for Castro and Jackson is likely in the 6-9mil range for arb year 2. So at max he's still 3mil cheaper than Castro through 5years up to 6mil. Then we're at the final year and that's the 9-13mil range vs. Castro's 7mil. In the end, it's about equal for 6years. In Castro's case he's at 30mil the next 3FA years. Where Jackson ends up for his 3FA years is the savings. I'd watch/wait for Jackson's contract to see where the value of extending Segura in to his FA years vs just going through Arb process as Det has done so thus far with Jackson. I think the template will be laid out with Jackson/Castro for the Brewers on Segura this offseason when Detroit either goes through with Arb or finally buys Jackson out and extends.

Now all we need for last season to come full circle is for the team to trade for Marcum. Oh and what Randy Wolf doing? We can always add another C like Kottaras to personally catch for him and play 1b the other games right?

Well, great. I will only accept this deal if when KRod is called up from the minors the club DFA's Axford. Having both Axford and KRod back together to be called upon from the pen...is well after last season...Insanity!

My counter argument in this: Elvis Andrus. Texas owned 5th year now at 4.8mil and #6 to be 6.5mil we'll say. All combined to total 15mil after 6years. So we're discussing buying Segura out now for 8years 45mil when pretty much what we would be doing is paying him differently over 8years but paying 15mil/year for year 7/8 owning after the initial 15mil over the first 6years. And when we tier out like posted above in the Shields example you are basically flipping 1/1.5/2/3mil a year added in first 4years vs paying Segura the combined 6.5mil on year 7. Year 8 seems to be relatively near market value. I just don't see the savings of 8years 45mil vs the process of the next 4-5years and then buying out/extending. And meanwhile, the club puts more money up front guaranteed with the risk of injury occurring that dimishes skills and in turn lower Segura's future value to begin with. The team seems very willing to hand out 10-13mil/yr contracts to players they like. Read:Weeks,Hart,Gallardo,ARam and Lohse. And I'm fine with that occuring. To suggest paying out Segura early today would be suggesting to me that someone values Segura to be a 15+mil player Locked Down 7years from now. So then we're looking at him being a 18mil or more player. Who believes that today? Right now Segura is worth Locked 7years from now 18mil no doubt 15mil+. That's a heck of a crystal ball you are looking through to know he can avoid injury and be that great a player 7 years from now. See, my whole thought on this is 1 single year missed due to injury saves the club the 3mil. we're basically discussing saving over an 8year time frame. Arb year 1/2/3 wont be 2.4/4.8/6.5 like Andrus has progressed. and that 6.5 for year 6 is almost the entire avg per year on a 8 year 45mil. The team must let these 3years go by where Segura doesn't make over 1mil before committing to buy out/extend. Especially with where they stand obligation/payroll wise for these next 2+years.

Not a huge fan of the idea at this point. Has anyone paid attention to the SS/2b injuries this year? In the years' past? I'd fully wait until in his first Arby year if not the offseason after to see where he stands at that point in buying out his final 2 arby years plus beyond his FA years. There's just too much injury risk for SS's for me to lock up a team controlled player prematurely in to a guaranteed contract. If Segura would get hurt like Gamel's ACL out for a season injury. That would diminish a great amount of the value Segura could be seeking in any of the Arb years. Thus saving money there, that the idea of signing him today is supposed to be saving. It's because of the injury risk factors, I see no reason for the team to not wait these full 3Pre Arb years of playing time before considering extending him. On a side note, I am glad to see Segura gaining a ton of fan recognition and he's proving more and more why I wanted him to bat #2 in the lineup over Weeks. 16% K per PA vs. 32% by Weeks and thus the coinciding much higher BA. Like I said, I want people On Base ahead of Braun/Rami/Hart rather than the base be empty.