brewcrewdue80

http://www.minorleagueball.com/2013/1/2/3829866/minor-league-system-rankings-based-on-sickels-rankings Brewers would be 16th but there were 5 teams to be ranked yet. From reading the comments though Stl.'s top 6 prospects point out higher than the Brewers' 20 combined. And Seattle's top 6 would point out at equal to Milwaukee. Cincy one of teams not to be ranked but as it stands now Milwaukee stands at the lowest in the Central by quite the number of grades. Then again, our pitchers all kinda flamed out in opinion and a return to ability the time they were drafted would be a boom.

I don't mind you calling me out on my hypothetical stat I threw out there. It was an idea on how to approach setting the lineup. While a HR counts as getting on base. It at the same time clears the bases. Right in front of your cleanup hitters in Braun/Ramirez. So, taking the factor of a HR not counting as being OB, the OB averages above just indicates if you want to see someone "On the Bases" ahead of Braun or Ramirez or even Weeks for that matter, who's best to accomplish the feat. I like to think that it is also a nice indicator how to set your 3/4 in lineup considering the amount of HRs taken away as OB by Braun and Ramirez they still rank in the top 5 on the team. I don't know how I would go about putting together the math to show what the results would be with my lineup vs. the typical Brewers lineup. And I did mention that Weeks would get his ABs in a 1/2 slot from time to time with days off by Aoki/Hart. So I don't believe by season's end it would be 100PA difference. Let's take this in a positive spin. When Weeks/Gomez/Hart/Ramirez are gone. The trio of Segura/Lucroy/Braun Remain and that could become the 1,2,3 in a lineup. So maybe one day I'll get to see how batting the best On Base guys ahead of your #3 works out.

I'm with you on not doing anything with Gallardo this year. My scenario would play out after this next season where Both Milwaukee and Seattle see what their young arms are capable of. Then for 2014 If Seattle's front office decides the payday Felix has forthcoming is just beyond their means but still wanting to make a Playoff push for his last year acquire another guy like Gallardo. It'd be an all or nothing 1year run for Seattle. But not crippling since they have a nucleus of guys to continue with beyond that year. As I stated in the Hart trade proposals, Seattle doesn't have any contract obligations beyond Felix and 2014. There is the ability to acquire Gallardo's contract, a hitter or two via FA and have their shot in 2014. Whether they pick up Gallardo's option or not is up to them. I just think Seattle is likely to do some Brewer like extensions to Walker,Hultzen,Zunino or Franklin a year or so after they perform at the ML level. But, Felix who let's face it will get Grienke money+ and having a 26-28MM contract on a team with payroll limits around 85 to 95mil like Milw would just have a hard time justifying signing Felix to 5yrs or more at that price.

nice find. Not much too it but it appears a more thorough analysis will be coming. Anyway, taken from that, Guys I'm interested in as Starter potentials: Gagnon,Bucci, and Nelson. All three put together a solid 2012 season. I'm looking forward to their move up and how they do this year.

Fun stuff to dream of for this topic. Read an article on Disciples of Uecker on the need to extend Gallardo soon. Remembering the upcoming 2014/15 Starting Pitchers who will be up for FA should they not get an extension made me wonder on Gallardo's contract ending 2014 barring picking up the option for 2015. Then I thought with the number of SPs coming up through the system what the possibility of entertaining trade phone calls from teams who want Gallardo to pair with the likes of Verlander,Hernandez,Shields,Halladay,Cueto before they depart to FA. What struck me was thinking about pairing Felix with Gallardo for 2014. Seattle would then also have Walker and Hultzen with 1year experience in them as well. And they have Paxton or Pryor who could be their 5th man or obviously another outside source. If, Walker and Hultzen meet expectations for 2014 paired with Gallardo and Hernandez just how great would those 4 be? Obviously Seattle needs some bats in the lineup to pair with the staff. I look forward to the day Felix pitches in the post-season and Maybe 2014 with Gallardo is it!

Ah, yes thanks for reminding me on the trade clauses. I was looking at it from the on paper/payroll standpoints. And each teams needs. Ignored the personal preference of players involved.

That article takes Line Drives in the same grouping of fly balls. Line drives are going to be the majority of successful batting numbers. I guess I need to clarify I am looking at hit trajectories in my rate noted above. When hitting a ground ball Weeks has a career .302BA on them. When he hits Line Drives he has a .707BA and his Fly Balls result in .217BA. In that regard, what I'm stating isn't wrong. Now, I said he gets an out 90% of the time he hits a fly ball that doesn't result in a HR. That is why he bats .217 when hitting Fly Balls. But if the Ball is in play it is an out 90% of the time.

So MLBTR reports the Phillies are looking for a Corner OF and one from the RH side. Add they have a luxury tax threshold they want to remain under(apparently 7mil to the good at the moment) Oddly enough, a Hart trade for a Roy Halladay could be plausible. As Brewers have thrown the 20mil/yr offers to Prince/Grienke a 20M Halladay for 2years must be doable. Meanwhile, Philly gets their OF/RH bat, reduces their payroll, and they'd have 15mil to work with to replace Halladay. Brewers get the 200IN pitcher looking for. Not that I want this trade to happen or think it will, but under the Phillies circumstances this idea of Hart to Phillies is plausible.

Howell and Frasor have deals in place with the Dodgers/Rangers respectively. That would leave only Farnsworth/Rauch as RPs Melvin had any interest in. In comparison Howell is set to make 2.85Mil with incentives to earn just over 4mil. Frasor's deal is for 1.5mil.

Things getting lost in my translation. Simply put: A HR hitter does so with 1 power but 2 hitting fly balls that carry over the fence. Fly balls that don't go over the fence are outs 90% of Weeks other results for his career. With that in mind with a 25% K rate and around 34% flyball rate you're looking at 49% automatic outs in PAs when figuring the HRs and flyballs that result in hits. Segura last season had 15% K rate, 13% flyball rate and his flyballs also netted a 90% out rate. But in the end that means Segura is at only a 27% automatic out in PAs This is why I'm biased to a low K% guy with speed and Line drive/Ground ball ratio vs. Fly ball atop the order than a guy who has a higher K rate and a higher Flyball rate than line drive/ground ball ratio. In the end Segura will surpass Weeks in BA because the BABIP is much higher on Line drives and ground balls over fly balls and Segura puts more Balls in play via not striking out.

Does the signing of Berkman make a trade for Upton seem more likely? Or are the Rangers now less likely to make a trade? Depending how you approach it, If Berkman leads the Rangers to not trade anymore, this signing may have a HUGE impact on the club in the years to come by keeping their Prospects in house for an added year or two of seasoning and they live up to expectations. Of course it could go the other way, they underperform lose their value, the chance to get JUpton. But, if the Rangers can keep their top tier prospects with their typical payroll having those cheap controlled pieces allows them to maybe pull some huge contracts. 2014 FA SPs anyone?

Yes, Agreed^^ I think what's going to hold back anything with Hart is the end of either Upton/Kubel being traded away and then the LaRoche/Morse situation in Washington. But, that's 2more potential suitors off the market for Hart at that point. Hopefully, a team just gets inpatient with what's going on with Wash/Arz. and sets their sights on Hart.

I throw Hart in to Sea's needs in that the team is looking for a middle of the lineup bat as well as top of the order. And their OF/1b situation while filled with many options none of them are better than Hart. Seattle also has the big gapping hole in payroll obligations beyond this season that gives them a realistic shot to consider signing Hart to an extension for 3more years. Seattle really has nothing but Question marks in their lineup. It's why I see a fit Home for Hart solving something Seattle is lacking. And Sea having a bunch of 1b/OF options allows you to keep Hart in the Lineup as DH on those times where he's not 100% To me Hart is approaching the #6 in lineup years while for Seattle he'd be their surefire #5. And Hart has the history batting at #5. Everyone is right in Franklin/Paxton being a bit much to offer for Hart for 1year. Though Hart is sure to get that QO which would be around a 40draft selection. My idea on Hart to Sea really has him being extended in mind thus the ability to offer a Paxton or Franklin and also why Milw could ask for one of them or both but with another player going to Sea. a Gennet/Davis combo or one or the other in mind. I get Gennet isn't likely to make a fulltime 2b but if he's a cheap serviceable utility IF for a team that has to have value. He's climbed the minors ladder and can be inserted on a ML team at this point. Anyway, was just my idea, I ask for a team's 4th/5th prospect and get turned down. Meanwhile, part of this thread's discussion heated up when Bauer a top 4-5prospect overall is among a trade for 1year of Choo. Myers for Shields trade. So I don't think it's out of the realm to seek a top40 overall prospect for Hart.

via MLBTR: http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2013/01/cardinals-notes-lohse-diaz-alvarez.html Lohse rightly has yet to receive an offer this winter! I was going to respond to an above statement on Vazquez giving you just as likely a chance of pitching above 4.5 to under 4.0. Well Lohse for his career has only 3 seasons out of 12 where he's been an under 4era pitcher. And 5 have been 5 or above! I think my opinion that Lohse will re-sign with Stl is going to turn true. I just wonder if Stl's offer reaches 10mil or more now. What's happening with Lohse could be good for QO'd teams down the road in the player accepting it. Anyway, Vazquez. Considering what he's been paid over his history, I would think he stands to get 5-7mil from a team that decides they want him. What would be your idea of what price you offer to him? It is rather disconcerning to me to see a player return to baseball after retiring as I feel majority of return from retirements are due to financial problems. Which scares me as a person likely to not give 100% the majority of the time once paid. At Vazquez's age that is. Having been a former Yankee I just think deep down there's a tie in with what Pettite having retired/comeback and now getting a great payday that Vazquez is trying to take advantage to join a team like Boston/NY who don't need to care about money or results as Vazquez can be replaced with more money thrown to someone else who's available on the market. And like stated above, you're looking at a SP who gives up the HR. Would you accept a 180-200IN season from Vazquez with 25-34HRs given up? That's what he'd project to which would equate to a HR+ per start. There are guys out there I'd take before Vazquez and at an equal or less cost. At least they've played within the last year.

Well, you may not feel those two can but Milwaukee paid 5+Million between the two of them as their belief they can. Whether they do or not, the team paid much more between Loe,Veras, and KRod to end up being bad. The Club has added quite a number of minor League Bullpen guys as well. I look at this year as the team being flexible with their Minors system and not getting caught in playing a player just because you paid/invested to much to not to. Thay last sentence alone is what I think Melvin has taken an approach as this offseason. Between Wolf 9.5M,KRod 8M,Loe 2.12M ,Veras 2M he had 21.62Mil of an inflated 100Mil+ Payroll tied to those 4. 20% of the teams payroll tied to 4players who had a grossly negative impact on the team. The team was already 10mil over an expected budget around 90mil. And I'm sure the team always thought they could move these players/money if needed. But those 4 played themselves to an awful Untradeable state leaving the team's hands tied and forcing them to continue playing them dispite the results. With Bullpen guys generally you get mixed results(It's why they are bullpen guys and not starters!). An outstanding year followed by mediocre, followed by great years, and then years you wonder how they have made it to the Majors. I like the moves and non-splash among the FAs. Just because they didn't get a 6mil guy who on paper has marginally better stats doesn't make the 2-3mil guy as a poor signing. You take the Wolf,Marcum,KRod contracts and lack of success at a whopping 25+mil cost to a small market it's understandable for the Brewers to become gun-shy. The fact this has been ongoing with FA signings by the Brewers and I'm happy they haven't tied up any 7+MM guys to our payroll.

Ender you're right in a small way. I don't like low avg. potential players atop my top 2 in Batting order when they carry an ability to strikeout as often as they can collect hits which for his career like last season, Weeks K'd more than hits. Gomez also, nears on K's outpacing Hits, when factoring in his less than 5% BB% and it's ugly to idea to bat Gomez atop the order. Segura as a rookie K'd 12% and Walked 8% and I wouldn't expect those numbers to change drastically to a k% over 20% like Weeks and Gomez. If Segura continues his 8%BB rate roughly 7-9% that fairs pretty close to Weeks' 10-11% rates while putting the ball in play much more frequently. Weeks never belonged atop the batting order but was put their due to what the team had as hitters. Weeks' Walk rate at least defends him for being 1st in the lineup. But his BA/and K% justifies him to bat lower. I guess don't get me wrong in what he produces for a 2b is awesome. I just see that currently the Brewers have a 1/2 in Aoki/Segura to finally keep Weeks lower in batting order where he belongs to me. 5/6imo. But, the Brewers being "Stacked with Hitters" and Lucroy/Hart also profile as 5/6 hitters which then pushes Weeks down to 7. Only now you're looking at Gomez at 8 who I just see as an awful ahead of the pitcher batter with his batting approach. That's why I bat Weeks 8. When you have potentially a top 3 in all of Baseball Batting lineup and you're good 1-8, Somebody will be batting lower in the lineup than you'd expect. And at this point I'm stuck with Gomez at 7,Lucroy 5/6 guaranteed. Leaves either Hart/Weeks to flip the other 5/6 and the loser bats 8th.

I wasn't expecting Lucroy to repeat his iso. That will all depend on if he hits over 10HRs. But his BA of .300 is realistic due to Lucroy's approach at the plate and line drive ability. Now, if Lucroy suddenly added lift and an ability to hit 20Hrs but at the cost of his line drives then .270 is what I'd think from him. And of course hitting Groundballs versus Linedrives. I just don't see Lucroy at this stage becoming more fly ball or ground ball in his hitting. I expect that line drive rate to remain high thus keeping his BA high.

Take the years 1996-2002 of the steroid era replace them with the players you're considering avg years outside of those years and what becomes your feeling on voting Sosa,McGuire,Bonds,Clemens in? I don't see McGuire or Sosa as HOF players when given an avg year for them vs what they did prior to use of Steroids. Bonds? It's clear his 4year run being juiced but before that he was on track as a HOF career. So, as much as I hate to say it but Bonds gets in to me as well as Clemens. I also vote in Bagwell and I'd vote his swing in to a HOF of it's own. Piazza,Schilling,Biggio are no-brainers imo. For Kicks I'll throw in Jeff Cirillo as he and Fernando Vina were favorites of mine in a time when it was hard to watch Milwaukee. Besides who doesn't love hearing his superstitions! Sleeping with his Bat! LOL Classic

So, I put a long post on the impression for Segura thread. In it I posted what the OB% were last season of Brewers hitters minus HRs. It came something to Lucroy .320 Braun .314 Segura .313 Aoki .311 Ramirez .298 Weeks .278 Hart .266 Gomez .241. It's why I entertain Segura #2 in lineup and Lucroy #5. Lucroy's BA/OB easily protect the #4hitter where as you see Weeks/Hart weakens that protection when not hitting HRs. If you're looking to provide Braun/Ramirez with the most RBI opportunities you go with the Aoki/Segura 1/2. And you have to expect Segura to bat better his 2nd season with more experience showcasing more why I like him #2 over Weeks. 35pt separation now. and Weeks career avg is .290OB sans HR so expecting Weeks to do better this year over last as well you're likely still looking at 35pt separation.

Mariners currently have Smoak then Morales for 1b. Smoak to me, is fizzling out his time to be a 1b with his poor BA/OB he has 74XBH over 1000PAs time I think Hart fits Mariners well in that regard between DH/1b/and LF flexible move around production for M's while being able to remove Smoak. Hart btw 124XBH in 1173PAs I said earlier somewhere with Hart what he does at the plate is about as consistent/predictable as you can get. With Morales and Hart you're looking at 1year guys and you can look to extend the one who performs best on your team/fits your eyes moving forward. [quote name="narwhalattack I think Seattle would hang up pretty quickly. Paxton' date=' although he isn't as good as Walker and Hultzen, still has good stuff and has a chance to be a #2/3 starter. Nick Franklin is a solid SS prospect with a good chance at sticking at SS, which is valuable in itself, not to mention that he has a pretty good bat to boot. Hart, although he has a very good bat that can help out the Mariners, is under contract for one more year and it's not a guarantee that he'll extend with Seattle. Gennett, although a solid prospect, doesn't have the upside of Franklin.[/quote] Thinking Hart as 1b for Mariners with the LF experience or even DH a big upgrade over Smoak. Mariners not having another 1b coming up in their minors system while they do have a few 2b/SS/3B guys coming up. Mariners can afford to lose Franklin having Ryan and then when Ryan goes those others replace him. Gennett just protects the Mariners on the injury front on Ackley/Ryan without running the clock on the better guys coming up too soon. Paxton for what it's worth is rated high but he may become a fizzle type with his injury issues. Remember Hart is proven Paxton/Franklin are not so you cant trade Paxton or Franklin straightup for Hart. The moment the M's extend Hart would be a huge win for them on that trade. M's really lacking in production at 1b Hart could shore that up at a cost of a SS/SP prospect who you have coming up the pipe. That's just my idea of a fair trade and insight why.

Depends on how you approach what makes your idea of a good hitter vs another's. Segura projects to K around 14% to Weeks' 24+%. On an avg BABIP in 500 PA you're looking at 15more hits for Segura. So Yes, as a hitter I expect Segura to be as good if not better. If you're a fan of slg% than Weeks obviously destroys Segura and is a far better hitter in that regard. The determining factor it seems is Segura's Plate Discipline and ability to BB. At the end of the season the final month Segura's BB% was higher than Weeks'. Should Segura keep near that final month's pace of BB% he will compare quite well to Weeks in Walks. So I fully see Segura outpacing Weeks in the BA/OBP. So long as he doesn't K 18% or more of PAs. Segura will provide SBs more than Weeks can/could. I guess it all boils down to my last statement in the"My lineup Makeup expectations" Weeks sorta teases you in every department but doesn't blow any of them away. He doesn't bat .280+ nor steal 20+ which is what I'm looking for in 1/2 He's a 15-20HR player which takes him off the 3/4/5 But then you have that .340+OB and you sit there and think that's doesn't belong in 6/7/8. So, he forces you to bat him in places that just doesn't fit my idea of what he provides. If Weeks didn't K so often then he fits the 1/2 fine. but hovering around 25% K rate just keeps him from ever batting .270+ which means he has to sustain that high BB% to reach a .333+OB which I'd expect at minimum from Leadoff. Weeks' ability to hit for 15-20HRs while a Run scored takes away his OB% in front of the 3/4hitters. It's an odd way of thinking I know, but now you're looking career at a hitter who doesn't get OB .290. While Aoki was at .311OB after taking away HRs. If you're taking a mindset to put players OB ahead of your "Cleanup hitters" Weeks doesn't quite suit me because what he does with his bat. BA/OB-wise for my cleanup hitters. That's what frustrates me with Weeks in a lineup because he's not a cleanup hitter, not a bottom feeder in lineup hitter, and not a true OB top of the order hitter. So, what I see is a guy who's forced to hit 1/2 and provides the team with a streaky lineup on run potential like last year. HRs aside Weeks was a .278OB guy. Hart a .266OB guy, Gomez a .241guy Lucroy a .320 guy. Segura a .313guy. Braun a .314 Ramirez .298 So, if you're making up a team to be OB ahead of your Cleanup hitters it would be among Aoki,Segura and Lucroy This goes to why I makeup my lineup of Aoki,Segura,Braun,Rami,Lucroy. top 5 That's to be a consistent success. one where both Braun and Rami should eclipse 100RBIs easily. Putting Weeks 1/2 is what holds back a Braun/Rami 100+RBI season. This also goes to why I want Hart traded, bat Weeks 6th Gomez 7th and Hart's replacement 8th. Or it's Weeks 6th Hart 7th. On a BA/OB that gives the team the best lineup top to bottom to remain consistent and not streaky.

If you pull up all those players, What's their K% LD%? Lucroy dropped his K% to under 10% a PA. from 18% among his PA in 2010/11. An odd fact looking in to Lucroy numbers is he had a rather large gap between Home/Away BABIP with his Home being .321 and away being over .400. His Ks were lower at home vs on the road. So, to me his Home abilities were a little below what you'd expect from him. I'd expect his BABIP to go up at home which if so with the lower K% should equate to even more from him as BA potential. But then again, the Road BABIP just has to go down to make up for the rise at home. The difference though is he Ks more on road than home meaning the dip will have less of an impact. Lucroy's % of GB,LD,FB haven't really changed much while he reduced the K%. I just think that should he keep his k% at or below 15 .300 seasons can and should be expected. Whether Lucroy's BABIP is inflated or not if he keeps a high contact rate and low K% rate even around norm BABIP he's likely to hit .280. Just on sheer fact that in 500PA He's getting 10 or more hits over avg by the less K% which is worth around 20pts on BA vs. the avg K rate on the league.

For the position he plays SS or 2b at some point. Batting .270+ with the ability to steal 20+ a season is great to me. I have this lineup expectation for top to bottom and having a guy who bats to that line or better fills one of the 1/2 lineup spots. Add that its from the 2b/SS position where thats what you feel is great production from that position is another plus. It's why I like Segura so much! And not like Weeks as much.

Come on fellas! .280? He's a line drive hitter and to the Gaps. I'd expect more .300+ seasons from him than seasons less than .300. And his OB will be around .350 for sure. so .300/350/.435 as a standard season with likely a breakout well above those numbers on a good year. Honestly, his history in the minors shows that breakout numbers like his .320 season 2nd season around is about norm for him. Only this time he doesn't move up a ladder he gets to stay and hit at this level a 3rd time! Thinking progression like Yadier Molina's with batting lines he may just blow away are expectations and hit around .340/.410/.495 a season or two. The guy can just flat out hit and I've always thought a hitting catcher who gets to sit back and catch pitches only improves his hand/eye coordination to be even a better hitter. If not with the bat with taking walks or striking out less putting more balls in play. So I expect his 6+% BBs to raise or at the very least watch his K% lower like it did drastically last season.