brewcrewdue80

Something I cooked up on imagination. Nick Franklin and Paxton for Corey Hart and Scooter Gennet. You take on a Segura/Franklin 2b/SS for years to come. Gennet who's just blocked and a lesser prospect probably becomes servicable to Seattle as a utility MI thinking Ackley/Brad Miller the M's MI for years to come after/if Ryan leaves Can you ask for much more? Throw in one of the 3b proscpects? Francisco Martinez or Joseph DeCarlo?

Would be great to read every year's articles on top prospects. He has it as aroudn 50/50 success to fail in an organization's top prospects end results.

http://prospectinsider.com/view/winter-notebook/ I hope this link takes you to the article. Anyway, Seattle strikes me as a potential suitor for Hart so I like to read anything that's new with the Mariners. I also browse through the comments to give me an idea what the fanbase considers is their needs. Anyway, Someone brings up 2013 being rebuild years for Brewers/Rockies and the idea of trading for Cargo and or....Braun. This is after some Stanton trade ideas. What floored me is the idea that Braun has nowhere near the value in their minds as Stanton does. That Braun's contract is overinflated and 8years is too much. Comments taken: "I think Braun (a consistent 7+ WAR player) would not only be a major catch, but I think it is attainable too...maybe for the package you suggested above...but I don't think we'd have to give up Walker for him, maybe Paxton or Hultzen instead?!" The package above was: I would think a package of Walker, Franklin, Jaso and Carp would get the conversation started... maybe throw in a reliever too. I think it's fun to think a team would think Braun would be tradeable?! He's been extended twice and is a top 5 hitter in all of baseball. and in terms of contract if he was a FA today would be in for a 24 and more MM payday. Brewers have only 2020 where a 2 starts his payday so the immense value Brewers have on him is ridiculous. And the trade package is awful on their suggestions. I don't know if I overvalue what Stanton/Braun are worth but to me I'd think it would start with both Hultzen And Walker not one. And to me it should acquire around 5-7 of the top 10 prospects from an organization. So to me It would be like: Walker,Hultzen,Franklin,Capps,Miller and Sanchez probably trading away Gennet for the better SS prospect turn Segura to 2b. That's on strictly a prospect perspective. Throwing Jaso/Carp in there. These are always the joke in trade suggestions. The failures to live anywhere to expectations but some team would consider trading for them and losing the prize possession everyone covets? Last year for Brewers fans it was the Morgan/Wolf/Rodriguez/Marcum/Loe throwaways that no team should trade for in their trade ideas. Anyway just threw this for your viewing pleasure

Let's face it. The real reason for Considering Hart to be traded is because the team has Gamel/Green just taking up 2 roster spots who we know won't go in AAA. Locking up Hart on extension just continues having 3players for 1spot. And there's a 4th potentially pushing his way up to be considered for a roster spot soon. Not trading Hart leaves the team with 2players who don't have any trade value now due to lack of experience. Hart has value and his departure gives Gamel/Green the opportunity themselves to provide trade value. Keeping Hart longer, not only reduces his value down the road(say 2 solid Prospects now to maybe 1down the road) but in Gamel/Green not playing vs. playing you take away any chance of them becoming say a 2 solid prospects each in return when Morris phases them out. So in that thinking, On best case in my scenario the team loses 6 solid prospects to 1 on trade returns by extending Hart another 3years. Add to it a 13-14MM cost vs what? a 13-14Mil TOTAL cost for the next 4years at 1b instead, as a small market you need to recycle players like Hart for added prospects and potential vs. him inflicting payroll damage as well as roster damage. And Hart as a #5 batter when I see Lucroy absolutely deserving of that spot today over #6. Thinking Weeks,Gomez batting behind Aoki you are stuck batting One of them in the 7th/8th spots. Another deterrent on their trade value in loss of PAs. Harts value is set in stone with his consistency. Weeks has to prove last year was a fluke and Gomez has to prove that last year Wasn't a fluke! Keeping Hart for this season only devalues every other player that the team needs to consider trading(sans Ramirez and likely even Himself!) in the short/far term.

Didn't Phi solve their CF need by getting Span?...oh wait Revere? Fun to float around some trade ideas but this one is one of those that has less than 0% chance of remotely being plausible

Well, if you split Segura's games in half which coincides with his low point. He finished the season 23-70 .329/.405/.442 slash lines. And that stretch includes him finishing 1-14 the final 4games. Take away his first MLB 23games as a slide of adjusting and he shows a good capability of getting OB. Small sample size yes argue what you will. He only K'd 8times to 9BBs Again, something for me I just like the contact vs. SOs at the top 2 in order. Weeks in same stretch btw: 3more games played 23-102 .225/.288/.421 slash line 9BBs as well to 22ks 22games is about 1/7th of a season. Weeks would be 32ABs behind Segura's OB pace which takes him to 1/6th the season or 1month to equal Segura's stretch. It's hard to look at someone who's so new to the team to replace someone you've watched bat atop the order. There's a bias to Weeks but factors in Segura's favor that to me will lead to him equaling or bettering Weeks in the OB department: His speed combined with a higher contact rate will result in a BA higher than Weeks and you can book that. Weeks K% Career in the 26% range near 29%last season. Weeks will have to outpace Segura in BBs to beat him in OB and the final 22Se/25We game stretch Segura had the same 9BBs as Weeks in 32 less ABs. Put Seguras .320s/near .380 line in winter ball as another sign of progression. To me:Young, growing,gaining experience has more upside in accomplishing getting OB in my eyes than a player like Weeks who Ks and has passed that stage where he should improve and should just flatline in stats the next 3-4years before declining. I also think who's more likely to see have hit and run with Aoki on 1st? How about Bunt? In meshing Aoki's skills Segura fits better. I envision needing a run in 8th/9th innings and Aoki getting on base Segura bunting him over and Braun/Ramirez the chance to knock Aoki in on 2nd. Weeks I just never see being asked to bunt. Add the Hit/Run better contact rate of Segura and you could see 1st/3rd down 1 and now Braun/Rami knock both in to take the lead. That is my reasoning. And I already added Weeks would see his share batting Leadoff/2nd with an Aoki day off or Gamel in lineup. Which I envision equals around 20% of the games in that scenario. It's kinda hard with whom the Brewers have in Hart/Weeks both being good players with their history batting in Mil's lineup to dethrone them. But in Segura/Lucroy, while both Hart/Weeks turn that clock beyond 30, I see better replacements for those spots they've resided in today.

2013's lineups likely just a few that will be said. It should be much like how it finished majority end of last season either way: Aoki Segura Braun Ramirez Lucroy Hart Gomez Weeks Pitcher. That's not how it was set but that is my lineup. They wont bat Weeks 8th but to me since he's great at taking walks/HBP batting ahead of the pitcher suits my liking. Batting Aoki/Segura contact hitters/non Strikeout guys % wise like Gomez/Weeks 1,2 with their speed ahead of the line drive hitters of Braun,Ramirez,Lucroy. I envision lots of A:SBs to get in scoring position and score with subsequent hit B:Reaching 3b on a hard hit single to be driven in with a SF C:Scoring from 1b on one of the many 2bs that Braun,Ramirez, and Lucroy hit Hart 6th. Dropped to 6th because Lucroy gets on base/better contact at 5 is better in my opinion than Lucroy 6th behind a less often OB Hart. I'd prefer added Runners on Base for a Hart HR. Gomez 7th. His Aggressive ABs don't belong at the top of the Lineup. Low OB as well another reason not to be in top of lineup. 7th not 8th? Again Aggressive ABs ahead of Pitcher? doesn't work when a Pitcher will be nit picking the plate with pitcher due up next. THUS. Weeks 8th Hey you know how to take Walks take them ahead of the pitcher. Batting behind Hart/Gomez gives him Rbi opps too. Meanwhile Weeks rising K% is at the bottom of the order. It seems so simple to me to field that lineup. Days you put Maldonado or Gamel in lineup I'd take Weeks back to 2nd move up Hart and Gomez and insert Gamel/Maldy 7th Segura 8th. Why? well it can appease Weeks to get to bat at top of order again. He does have that 600PA/1200PA contract option to attain so he's going to be pushing to get his PAs an you're paying him 11mil(though just cuz his pay is 11mil doesn't mean its best for team to place him atop order). Aoki a day off? Hart in RF Gamel at 1b? Weeks,Segura,Braun,Ramirez,Lucroy,Hart,Gomez,Gamel. If Gomez has his BA above .255 you might flip Segura with Gomez 2-7/7-2 It is his contract year so who knows? Maybe Gomez bats some crazy .275 this year?!

That's all I'm saying is he put up good stats. Meanwhile Profar batted under .230, Olt .250 nothing awful in a short span but we're dissing the competition Segura faced meanwhile these Reknowned prospects didn't blow away the same competition and actually could say didn't meet expectations. That's also what I'm pointing out. He plays SS and it would at least appear, for a position you don't expect much from with that bat, to provide some value with his bat for 6years to come. It's good to feel secure at a position with weak hitting stat expectations to likely exceed those for 6seasons. As the Brewers stand now, without a stud 1b in the mix, you hope to find a make-up in offensive value at another position not expected to provide value. That's what I love about the Brewers lineup currently the mix of bats/speed/power all fit together. It's not heavy in just one way (low BA all power/high BA no power, No power lots of speed)

Why would you not think he cant hit like he did last season? .300BA in Minors. Batting .320 in Majors just continues showing his ability to hit for avg. He leads the team in Line Drive Rate. He may not bat .320 or higher but he's also more than likely to bat higher than .265. Lucroy is a guy who doesn't whiff at 20+% of his PA so his BA should stay in a high range with his line drive rate. I couldn't see him in the OF at all like you said. We find it funny to watch Choo go play CF. I'd think Lucroy would be an even funnier OFer to watch in defeciency. As a 1b? As a batter perspective also agree in that he's only going to around an avg bat for that position. That takes away the value he gives for the team vs. the League. ++ at Catcher but then just avg. as everyday 1b. Nothing wrong with using Lucroy at 1b if the regular 1b for Brewers is providing you with below avg-avg production. Thinking when Hart's gone, Gamel struggling being Lefty he can be a type of reserve platoon at 1b with Gamel vs. Lefties. In that regard Righty/Righty with Lucroy/Maldonado and the ability to throw one on 1b vs Leftys is another plus reason to keep them both. You could technically go Hart RF,Lucroy 1b, Maldonado C being a super heavy Righty lineup vs Leftys and spelling Aoki/Gamel off. Fun huh?

I am thinking it's done for now. The 2nd paragraph is more with 75mil and say 5-10mil to spare on a potential ST/Start of season add-on. From a waived SP? among a team with too many to fit him and no options? Something in those lines where a player is released by a team with no use for them but we can.

Yes I get it. Like the other comments that were below the story. But, Segura at least led the league in Batting Avg, 2nd in SBs. That's a much better indication of his ability than if he batted around .215. Looking up Prospects in that League:Pitchers Julio Teheran,Samuel Deduno,Randall Delgado,Jenrry Mejia,Pedro Strop, Batters: Profar,Oscar Tavares,Junior Lake,Marcell Ozuna,Darin Ruf,Wilmer Flores,Mauro Gomez,Starling Marte,Leonys Martin,Mike Olt,Miquel Sano, As well as a few old MLBs Manny Ramirez, Fernando Tatis,Vladimir Guerrero,Carlos Santana,Erick Aybar,Hanley Ramirez,Nelson Cruz,Dee Gordon, So it's not all fluff.

This reasoning is why I think I do over evaluate Maldonados value for trade. He has 6years of team control. Maybe a salary restricted team in desperate need of a serviceable catcher throws a SP who's 1/2yrs in with 3-4years team control your way. Say like Atlanta who has McCann and then who(found Gerard Laird)? What if they offered Delgado or Minor? This being a scenario where McCann maybe gets injured for season and Atl is desperate. I don't know how high the ceiling is anymore for a Minor or Delgado. Minor did throw 170+IN last year though. It's just a scenario where Atl doesn't appear to have a true C after this season. Say Maldonado improves any bit on his numbers from last year and an offer came that included one of Minor or Delgado? Do you take it?

With the signing should that complete the 40man. You're looking at a roughly 75mil team payroll. Which I enjoy the flexibility in season that gives us. There is probably a ST type of acquisition/trade yet to come for a SP with innings eating ability. But if not, I am excited for the next season. Why? The offense! Brewers have it set and have a good idea of where they fit in the batting order. I foresee that leading to an early season jump vs the competition who may be "feeling out" their lineups.

Pretty sure it's Henderson's role to lose. Who I think is better than his time in 2012 showed.

Big market teams can afford those payrolls. Reducing what they pay only makes owners more money which the Players wont be happy. I can only think that deals with money bonuses? that don't count on payroll then becomes the determining factor. Here's 4/44mil and a 40mil signing bonus! So there in the big markets run out the small markets anyhow. Yankees make more money on their tv market deal ALONE than what the bottom 20teams in MLB are spending for payroll. Add to it these small market teams are alread having money "Shared" to them by the big spenders that allows them to even approach what they do spend. You want a real answer? Retraction. Remove the ten lowest markets from the equation and life goes on. Retraction will happen long before a salary cap does. it just doesn't work with baseball.

I did read the comments below the article and a lot was brushing this achievement off as yeah leading the DWL with that talent pool is something to crown as special and think Segura is the next big thing? Harsh yes. Another said something like I love the trade for Segura having a batting title contending SS is awesome! Ok. That's a far reach he didn't bat .400 even .333. All I'm taking from this is of all the players who batted in the DWL he lead them over 35games in batting avg. had 2HRs, 11SBs. Think 155games of 10/40? And that he should be able to maintain around my .268BA +/- 10 pts. I look for at the plate. That's LF,C,SS now locked in place for next 5seasons minimum. All to be on Team friendly contracts! It's a great start to keep building around!

5 more years of both these Catchers. Right? Oh, we needn't forget there's a 1st rd pick Clint Coulter who's likely to push his way up the Organization ladder. How long do you keep it that way? Lucroy then Maldy as backup? Easily next 2seasons right? This is assuming Maldonado hits like 2012 or improves. Or do you have one of them available for trade? Do you run it all the way through 5years? with Coulter in the midst to extend this Catcher prowess the Brewers have with Maldy and Coulter then another 2years locking up a great 2man tandem behind the plate for 7seasons? Let's say Maldonado is around his 2012 stats on avg the next 2 years. Now a team wants him as their full-time catcher rather than backup. What are we thinking it takes to pry away Maldonado? Just curious what BF think is a proper return on a defensive catcher with occasional flashes of pop?

Upgrades to the stadium and or maintenance is also used off that revenue. One thing about Miller Park is how friendly it is for both Home/Away teams. As years go by without updating it the park will become outdated. Mark A. seems to have kept an eye on his stadium by providing a fan friendly experience as well. Something that I know keeps me and the fans going to ball games. If you think about it from that perspective its another reason to appreciate Mark A. and Melvin in not using their resources strictly to pay for players and themselves, they use them to keep fans happy. Another way I've seen people look to the added revenue is the thought, "Great more money to overpay players and line the pockets of the owners" Meanwhile, the fan still sees ticket prices rise, food prices rise, parking rise and on and on. Mark A. just may keep his pricing and not raise them keeping it affordable to go to games. That may not happen or it may and if it's a result of using some of the added revenue over paying a player 14+mil then again great for us the fans. We are a small market team for reason, the avg attendence here is harder to maintain than the big cities with Millions of people to have fight over going to a game. I believe Mark A. took advantage of Selig's mediocrity and subsequent years of top picks, the ballpark, throw some added money to bring the fans to a ballpark that as I recall many said would snub after having the stadium tax. My Grandpa still to this day doesn't watch the Brewers after that deal. As I recall originally the team's payroll operating above 70mil wasn't realistic. Sure the fans have come but what if they slowly stop going? To expect 90+mil payrolls, locking up 4-5players on 12MM+ salaries anything long term could turn disastrous if the players fail, fans grow disgust and attendence falls to the 2mil range. So, to sum it up the Brewers need to make sure they are getting as much value from every dollar spent on every player from every player. Just raising the payroll 10-15mil because the added revenue says there's enough money floating around for Hart,Swisher,BUpton, et al to ask 14-16MM doesn't make the Brewers one of those teams to pay 15mil on an 11mm Brewers affordable player. I think that in is the problem with the revenue is while you say yeah I'd sign Hart to 4yr 40-44mil extension. and then hear new revenue and now in your head you say well if the going rate is 4/52-56? Okay since the money is there we can do that with Hart. Hart hasn't change as a player between this year and the moment the new tv deals were made. So why should you change what you feel he is worth? If Mark A. and Melvin sit tight and don't get lost in the overspending this team will succeed for years while teams like Cleveland who not only paid 14mil to Swisher but lost a draft pick. Letting Hart go with a QO and replenishing with an added draft pick in the 30s for someone who if successful will be on the team around the time the 14mm aging Hart's extended contract would have ended? How do you replace him then? well currently Hart is replaceable among Gamel/Green,Schafer,Aoki. depending where you play him. but if extended to say 2016 who's to replace him then/beyond? Oh, that draft pick we could have had had we just QO'd him? Or the prospects you attained from trading him? Sorry turned in to a big rant. Anyone ever go to Baseball-Reference? I'll go there and check out teams payroll obligations. Remember Jack Z.? now GM for Seattle? for 2015 they only have 2.7mil in guaranteed contract money for that year! So it all makes sense why everyone links them to signing a FA. Yet they haven't shown the money. Seattle's payroll is around Milwaukee's payroll. I am in belief that Jack Z. and that organization will prosper long term like the Brewers with using the draft, extending the studs when possible and letting the playoff seasons come when they come. Trying to piece together yearly runs of potential playoffs sets up for disaster in payroll obligations and unmovable players. Wolf? Rodriquez? anyone? I am interested to see how successful Seattle is in the next 3-5years and beyond. Of course if they went and signed Bourne then that nixes how I see them.

http://www.jsonline.com/blogs/sports/184639201.html Seems he just won the batting title in Dominican Winter League. I really am comfortable with this kid at SS for the years to come!

Well, when you look at it, Swisher for his career is a practical LOCK to get OB 200+ times in his near Lock of 600+PA. I will say that has to be something of value detering from any kind of batting slump that Swisher will still get OB via BBs. He avgs. better than 13%BBs for every PA. Add the 148+games/season he's played in since after his rookie year and for what it's worth you know what you're getting from him sans injury risk. If you're going to pay someone 14mil a year may as well do it on someone who will play better than 90% of the games.

As above shows, financially the Brewers need to trade Hart. He has the best value coming back in trade. Gomez could regress next season and make it an obvious case not to QO him. If I can think that so can other GMs in putting together a trade since Gomez doesn't guarantee that QO compensation. Again, where I look at it is Olt with Texas if you can wiggle him for Hart. That or Perez but Olt being as we don't have a 3b prospect anywhere ready coming through minors. Olt then in turn gives team ability to trade away Ramirez and those two moves alone free up quite a bit of money. I will say taking from MLBTR: The Rangers were never in on Adam LaRoche or Nick Swisher this winter as they didn't want to dole out long-term deals or sacrifice a draft pick for either player and: The Rangers are looking more to trades than free agency to improve their team at this point, Levine told Bowden They wanted J.Upton but now Kubel is on the trade block. You gotta think Hart fits in to their plans with the above statements. Hart having the 1b experience has to give him a rather big edge over Kubel as their 1b situation sit mostly as Mooreland then Olt? Since losing Napoli and Young. Theres still the idea of Kinsler being their 1b, Profar 2b,Andrus SS so the 1b problem as seen now may not be any kind of problem. But then again, the problem is Texas needs to remove Andrus to solve their SS/2b trio down to 2 while acquiring that 1b. And the Brewers now have Segura. You could do all sorts of things though taking on Andrus, sending Segura to AAA while taking on offers for Andrus the 2yrs you have him. I'd imagine that Olt,Andrus for Gomez,Hart could be a deal? Hart for DH/1b/OF and Gomez the CF over Gentry. Who else do Brewers get in that deal?

I hope he's not on the Brewer's radar for a Backup SS. Yes he produced offensively THAT year, but the guy doesn't work the count(unless he's swings and misses) and has a really poor .278BaBIP for his career! He's a Negative WAR player awful defensively. The guy avgs. LESS Than .5% walk rate career! So, you're looking at a guy who likely in decline as a Backup, cant get OB around a .270clip and is a liability defensively. For that just give me Bianchi! And you would have to assume he declines by not playing everyday!

If Karstens was a higher Whip pitcher I'd worry a little more about the length of park pitched in. Miller Park is the 2nd highest park he's given up HRs after PNC but majority of those came before he went to starter 2years ago. And 1 in that still injured .1 4er outing after shutting Brewers out the start before. Something I am reminded is Pittsburg has had their fare share of All-Star Relievers in Meeks,Hanrahan and someone else I'm forgetting. So, the team wouldn't keep Karstens in beyond the 8th to often even though he'd be at 80-90pitches after 7innings. I think had Karstens been in Milw 2012 with our Bullpen he'd have completed his share of 8innings maybe a CG if given the chance when you give him say 100-105pitch count quality starts before removing. To put in perspective going over last 2seasons: Gallardo avgs: 4.02pitches/AB 5.62 per out Estrada avgs: 4.02pitches/AB 5.67 per out Karstens avgs: 3.526/AB 4.83 per out Even more on it is Karstens has 253IP over last 2seasons covering 1,040Batters throwing 3,668pitches Estrada in his 2 years has 231IP covering 943batters while throwing move pitches than Karstens at 3,795! I get that both Estrada and Gallardo have more swinging Strikes than Karstens Karstens at .312per Batter to Estrada's .425per batter only a tenth difference yet Karstens avg still .5less an AB. Maybe theres just something Karstens can share with Estrada/Gallardo on approaching batters that could reduce their pitch counts to AB/per outs? With that said on a 98pitch count limit Karstens would avg better than 6.2IP per start at 6.76. You're looking at a guy when out there gives you near 7IP capability for what 4mil/yr? among a staff with Innings questions? And like I said if theres something he can share to reduce pitch totals to Estrada/Gallardo alone has to provide major value. You can see why I'm a fan of his and a Brewers signing.

I believe the Brewers will and Gomez will decline it as he will get as much or more and will get that at a 5 or 6 year contract. Gomez should get what Upton got this year and maybe a little bit more. I believe the Brewers will and Gomez will decline it as he will get as much or more and will get that at a 5 or 6 year contract. Gomez should get what Upton got this year and maybe a little bit more. What? Gomez would have to have a HUGE year to get a 13.5 million qualifying offer. I just don't see it. I think all this answers why the Brewers haven't put any real money out there for a FA. Hart will get his offer. We'll put it at 14mil. Now its 67.8mil for 7 guys Gomez then gets his offer another 14mil. Now you're at 81.8mil for 8guys. If they both accept. The way to look at is Hart is comparable to Swisher 14mil/yr player. He will beat the offer if he goes on the market. Gomez, if he was a FA this season he'd have every right to ask near Upton's pay as their numbers resemble one another. Albeit, Upton could break out at a much higher production than Gomez can(thinking near top of his breakout last year) Gomez is better Defensively has that 15HR pop and likely 30SBs if given the green light. He can sure frustrate the heck out of you with his approach at the plate through stretches but, he has just enough production across the board for a team to give him 14mil a year. We all know how poor he can be via 2011. But Gomez falls in that class of players who've been rated higher in ability than he's produced. The "Talent/Tools" are there for him to be a constant 20/30 CF with good Defense. You don't get many of that. If he ever increased at a better BA maybe he touches 25/40 continually. The fact Gomez shows flashes of that keeps him at a higher value than what he's going to actually produce from what we've experienced. The point is Melvin is kinda handcuffed in that the team has an offensive ability HRs/SBs to compete in every game. And there's good likelihood the two players Hart,Gomez who will be on the QO status come end of season are a big part of the offense, thinking ahead you have to believe those two take the offers. If the team moves forward like they wont then when they do it only guarantees a season in the red which they just had. And I posted before if they accept for 2014 what stops them from accepting in 2015? Keep in mind the salary for the above 6 would be even higher. I wonder if there's a rule if(or maybe there should be) if a team puts a QO on a player and they accept the following year they don't have to put a QO on player to recieve compensation. Hart/Ramirez/Weeks are all players I fear when the age factor hits on their ability they will drop in production at the plate dramatically. We may have witnessed a small preview in Weeks with his first half of 2012.

Thanks for responding 2nd time I'd mentioned Karstens and no one gave me any added comments! Figuring his expected arb was to 3.8mil I was thinking 2years 7.5mil would get it done. Much like Gorzelanny getting about the same amount yearly he was expected to get for arb. Either way, I posted somewhere having figured it out Karstens 40starts last 2years he pitched to a 3.54era I believe. Sure he doesn't have the K/9 flashy stuff but lets' face it when he was on he shutout the Brewers for 7ip last year when we were in the midst of our end of season run. And he may have gone a CGSH had he not left for a tight hamstring. Subsequently, he came back 5days later to pitch vs. Brewers again and then gave up 4ER getting only 1out Obviously still hurt. Even with that 1out outing he pitched less than 4era. He did come back and finish the year with a couple starts and bullpen time since Pirates were out of it. So you would think he is healthy. For basically League Avg pay, I don't see the risk in giving Karstens a 2yr contract even if he winds up with 20starts a year like the past 2. What gets me is he's reduced his Hits/9 BBs/9 and HR/9 each of the last 2years and raised his K/9 last season. Encouraging signs. And both of those correspond to the last two years of him becoming strictly a Starter. The previous years he had been flip flopped from Pen to SP. I think his role as a SP must make him more comfortable over out of the Pen. He just seems like a safe acquisition when it comes to performance. At best like 2011 hes 25+ starts under 3.5era. At worst he's a 4.5-5Era Which is allowable at the back end for 3.8mil. But at best? That's a 10mil or more season from him in value and you only paid 7.5! When it comes to Backend starters to acquire his ceiling is high. His floor isn't steep. Even his occasional minor injuries that puts him on 15DL wouldn't be the worst thing as a AAA Callup to throw one of the Young guns in whom we are looking at as a full time starter currently gets his feet wet. He was Pitts #2 starter to begin last season. So he'd easily slot in #2/3 for Brewers. The whole idea in this is you acquire someone who in almost certainty will earn his pay on contract. I mean Relievers are being offered 3-6mil. This is a proven Starter in just that range with Bullpen experience. You could incentive the deal on 25,30 starts made as well. say 250k for 25th and another 500k for 30. maybe as high as 500k for 25 and 1mil for 30. Would put him at 5.3mil for 30starts and he'd have given us everything we are seeking.