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sveumrules

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Everything posted by sveumrules

  1. sveumrules
    Nice. Should be a fun day for Noah & he's definitely earned it with a solid season in Carolina this summer posting a 273/391/392 (120 wRC+) line with a 14.0 BB% / 22.9 K% and 20/3 SB/CS. Has played primarily LF, but has seen time at all four infield spots & even pitched thrice, so C, CF & RF will be the only new spots for Noah today.
  2. sveumrules
    Even accounting for home stadiums Scherzer leads in both ERA+ (195 to 181) and ERA- (49 to 56). Yes, and suggesting that a minimal gap like that should overcome the massive difference in actual pitching performance is absurd. People are buying into name-brand, big-market media bias to even suggest that Scherzer win. Should Kyle Hendricks have won in 2016? Did he have a season basically on par with 1999 Pedro Martinez? Give me a break. I don't think it's absurd at all. Both are deserving candidates. Ten years ago Burnes probably would have finished 4th because writers didn't know what FIP was & thought Voros McCracken was a character on Star Trek: Next Generation or something. That he even has a chance is the result of massive progress in how pitcher performance is evaluated. I wouldn't have put Kyle Hendricks 1st on my ballot in 2016 & he finished 3rd. Looks like the writers got that one right. Scherzer also threw 38 more IP than Hendricks in 2016 so it appears voters also valued his additional quantity. It's amazing that Burnes has even been in the neighborhood of 1999 Pedro on a per inning basis, but Martinez threw 213 innings notching 10.0 rWAR & 11.6 fWAR, so even if he's basically been on par he's still going to come up 3-4 WAR short of peak Pedro.
  3. sveumrules
    Brewers have a .606 winning percentage in the 94 games they've rolled out a Sunday lineup with JBJ vs a .630 winning percentage in the 54 games he didn't start. Not really torpedoing our chances too significantly.
  4. sveumrules
    Even accounting for home stadiums Scherzer leads in both ERA+ (195 to 181) and ERA- (49 to 56).
  5. sveumrules
    Burnes still barely leading in composite WAR (50/50 split of runs allowed & FIP based WAR)... Corbin: 6.1 rWAR | 7.2 fWAR | 6.65 cWAR Scherzer: 7.5 rWAR | 5.5 fWAR | 6.5 cWAR Wheeler: 6.0 rWAR | 6.6 fWAR | 6.3 cWAR Buehler: 6.9 rWAR | 4.8 fWAR | 5.85 cWAR I wouldn't have an issue with Scherzer winning. Pretty impressive that he has given up 14 more HR than Corbin but still has an ERA a quarter run lower.
  6. sveumrules
    FanGraphs has 41 catchers with at least 1,000 PAs since Manny's first season with the Brewers in 2016. Pina's played about as often as top backup (1187 PAs, 35th) but has performed around a league average starter (6.5 WAR, 17th) over that stretch. Pineapple Power, indeed.
  7. sveumrules
    Yeah, the season will essentially come down to two things... Rodgers staying healthy / returning to effectiveness & the defense improving as the season goes on / hopefully establishing an identity besides "they suck" heading into the playoffs. Ok, I guess that's really kinda four things, but whatever.
  8. sveumrules
    I'm seeing Wainwright for today with Happ on Sunday. So the Cards get to deal with Peralta, Woody Houser and Burnes. Good catch. Just saw that Happ had been following Mikolas (who pitched yesterday) the last few trips through the rotation & didn't realize they bumped Wainwright up with the off day. Looks like Waino should line up for the Thursday game at AmFam then.
  9. sveumrules
    Checking the Cardinals rotation & it looks like Wainwright is lined up for Sunday so we should get Woodford, Lester, Mikolas & Happ for the four games at AmFam.
  10. sveumrules
    Kolten, Avisail & Manny all went deep on September 12.
  11. sveumrules
    We're talking about the last position player on the roster. It's either JBJ for pinch running & defense (which also frees up Taylor to PH whenever without worrying about burning your only backup CF), a third catcher (Maile) or Vogelbach, who is redundant with Tellez & would be 3rd in line for LH PH ABs behind Rowdy & Jace. It's really six of one & a half a dozen of the other & three pairs of the third, just a matter of preference. Wouldn't surprise me in the least if Stearns & company prefer to go with JBJ as he offers the most flexible skill set of the three.
  12. sveumrules
    Sure there is. It allows you to pinch hit Taylor (best RH on bench) in a big spot & still have a speed / defense OF waiting in the wings. If everybody is healthy... Omar, Manny, Rowdy, Kolten, Willy, Eduardo, Luis, Jace, Yelich, Lorenzo, Avisail, Tyrone are 12 locks on offense. Corbin, Woodruff, Peralta, Houser, Lauer, Ashby, Suter, Hader, Devin, Boxberger, Cousins Strickland are 12 locks for pitchers. My guess for last two right now would be Gustave & JBJ with Maile, Vogelbach & Norris on the outside looking in.
  13. sveumrules
    Was just chuckling at Bradley K-ing on the worst pitch of the AB. Just not his year. There is no way he makes the playoff roster. Likely dfa'd at the end of spring training 2022. It would cost 17.5 million to DFA JBJ, that's a lot of money to eat. I'd also wager he makes the playoff roster for pinch running / defense purposes.
  14. sveumrules
    JBJ's career average per 162 games has been -9 batting runs over 600 PAs. So far this year with the Brewers he is at -31 over 403 PAs. If he was having an average season that would only be -6, so a difference of 25 runs or about 2-3 wins. We might have even clinched already. I kinda thought 5runs was worth 1 win and if so that is a 4-5 win gain vs loss by him. The actual value varies slightly from season to season based on run environment & other factors, but for quick/dirty purposes 10 runs = 1 win... https://www.baseball-reference.com/about/war_explained_runs_to_wins.shtml Looking at Brewers this year Adames (33 RAR, 3.2 WAR), Avisail (31 RAR, 3.0 WAR), Kolten (29 RAR, 2.8 WAR), etc
  15. sveumrules
    JBJ's career average per 162 games has been -9 batting runs over 600 PAs. So far this year with the Brewers he is at -31 over 403 PAs. If he was having an average season that would only be -6, so a difference of 25 runs or about 2-3 wins. We might have even clinched already.
  16. sveumrules
    2018 GB%: 51.8 2019 GB%: 43.2 2020 GB%: 50.8 2021 GB%: 52.4 The only season Yelich's batted ball profile with the Brewers really changed was 2019, though he did run a 59.1 GB% from 2013-17 with the Marlins. There was an article at FanGraphs earlier this year about Juan Soto's batted ball profile that included this pretty telling graph of GB% vs wRC+ from 2018-20. Yelich is the dot just above and to the right of the Soto dot...
  17. sveumrules
    Don't remember the exact game, but didn't they get booed going into the tunnel after a particularly brutal first half in like 2018 or 2019? If they don't get off to a fast start, or do something extra boneheaded early on, I almost expect the Lambeau faithful to voice their disapproval...unless they're too busy tweeting it.
  18. sveumrules
    Brewers 1B during the Stearns & company era... 2016 1B: 677 PAs | 110 wRC+ (13th) | 0.7 WAR (18th) 2017 1B: 713 PAs | 132 wRC+ (7th) | 3.6 WAR (10th) 2018 1B: 725 PAs | 129 wRC+ (5th) | 3.2 WAR (7th) 2019 1B: 697 PAs | 108 wRC+ (15th) | 1.7 WAR (15th) 2016-19 1B: 2812 PAs | 120 wRC+ (7th) | 9.2 WAR (10th) 2020 1B: 241 PAs | 102 wRC+ (18th) | 0.3 WAR (22nd) 2021 1B: 613 PAs | 91 wRC+ (25th) | -0.3 WAR (28th) 2020-21 1B: 854 PAs | 94 wRC+ (26th) | 0.0 WAR (27th) Yes, Brewers 1B have been bad the last two years. If it feels like that's where they always seem to be you might be experiencing some degree of recency bias.
  19. sveumrules
    I can always count on you providing a comment with great insight. There is already a Yelich thread that has been going all season long and another started to see if Yelich was the next Chris Davis. You post frequent enough the last few months you had to of seen one of these threads before. You are providing information that has been beat to death for an almost full two seasons. If you need great insight on this topic there are already lengthy threads with all the data in the universe. viewtopic.php?f=63&t=40578 viewtopic.php?f=63&t=40919 Threads Merged.
  20. sveumrules
    After the first game of the doubleheader on August 14th Yelich's OPS was at a season low of .721 with a 230/371/350 triple slash. Since then he has hit 302/345/443 in 116 PAs over the last month entering today's game. Yelich has a full no trade clause, so he probably isn't going anywhere. If he can return to the 120 OPS+ hitter he was with the Marlins & avoid catastrophic injury the contract extension will be fine.
  21. sveumrules
    This blurb from the preseason FanGraphs Brewers Prospect List gives me some hope that there is some substance behind Hendry's eye popping rookie ball results... This is a prospect from the recent January signing group who is already making some noise down in the Dominican Republic. Mendez is a physically mature lefty stick with advanced feel for contact. There’s less projection here than is typical for a player this age but Mendez’s feel for the barrel is what’s driving his inclusion on the list. Descriptions of him indicate a player who might really perform on paper in the DSL and merit a late-summer promotion to Arizona, though it’s more likely that stateside eyeballs get a look at him in the fall.
  22. sveumrules
    FanGraphs with a nice breakdown today on what has lead to Lauer's improved results this year... https://blogs.fangraphs.com/eric-lauers-emergence-gives-the-brewers-october-options/
  23. sveumrules
    MOLITOR MONCRIEF FAVRE
  24. sveumrules
    Drew Rasmussen (5 IP) and Pete Fairbanks, JT Chargois, David Robertson, Andrew Kittredge (1 IP each) just shut out the Blue Jays with 3 H | 1 BB | 6 K.
  25. sveumrules
    Updated lines for the Top 3 contenders entering the final week... Joe Gray Jr. (456 PAs | 256/362/516 | 20 HR | 89 RBI | 71 R | 23/3 SB/CS) Joey Wiemer (441 PAs | 300/401/552 | 24 HR | 72 RBI | 81 R | 30/6 SB/CS) Felix Valerio (487 PAs | 296/407/477 | 11 HR | 77 RBI | 87 R | 31/9 SB/CS)
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