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sveumrules

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Everything posted by sveumrules

  1. sveumrules
    In the eight postseasons using the current two team one game Wild Card format, the biggest difference in wins between WC1 & WC2 has been six, which happened three different times. The average win difference between WC1 & WC2 has been 2.3 (1.6 in the 13 races not decided by six games) so typically the teams have been pretty evenly matched. The difference between WC1 & WC2 in the NL is currently 13 wins.
  2. sveumrules
    Darrien Miller walk off grand slam in the bottom of the 10th for Carolina makes a winner out of James Meeker, who added another 2.1 scoreless IP to his ledger.
  3. sveumrules
    What the Brewers presumably see in Lopes is a guy who can competently defend multiple positions, which is a perfectly reasonable skill set for a guy who is ostensibly like the 18th position player on the 40 man and has gotten nine PAs this year. Dustin Peterson's definitely hit better than Lopes at AAA this year, but he's only played LF/1B. Stearns & company have repeatedly demonstrated they don't value defensively limited players unless they can really hit. Dustin's 276/351/439 (114 wRC+) line with a 10.3 BB% / 12.5 K% is certainly solid, but nothing really special for someone limited to LF/1B.
  4. sveumrules
    Lakers (LeBron, AD, Westbrook, Gasol, Carmelo) and Nets (Durant, Harden, Kyrie, Blake, Millsap, Aldridge) currently have eleven 2015 All Stars on their rosters. Seven 2015 All Stars are already retired. DeMarcus Cousins & Jeff Teague eagerly await their calls.
  5. sveumrules
    Preseason projections at FanGraphs had the Padres with the best rotation in baseball entering the year... https://blogs.fangraphs.com/2021-positional-power-rankings-starting-rotation-no-1-15/ Brewers came in at #9, though Ben Clemens thought the projections were underselling them somewhat..."Of the second tier of rotation projections, I think the Brewers have the best chance to over-deliver. Burnes and Peralta, in particular, could blow past our projections. I’m wildly optimistic here, and it certainly doesn’t hurt that they get to face the NL Central, perhaps the weakest-hitting division in the game."
  6. sveumrules
    ACL Gold wins 7-6. Eduarqui Fernandez (2-4, 2B, walk off HR), Eduardo Garcia (2-4, 2B) and Alberis Ferrer (2-2, BB, 2B, SB) lead the way on offense while Israel Puello (4 IP, 1 ER, 3 K) had a solid start and Breiner Carvajal (1 IP, 1 K) notched a zero in relief. ACL Blue wins 4-1. Tristan Peters (3-4, BB, 3B, 2 SB) had a big night with Reidy Mercado also tripling while Rafael Garcia (5.1 IP, 1 ER, 11 K, 1 BB) dominated before turning the ball over to Leoni De La Cruz (2.2 IP, 4 K) and Oscar Castaneda (1 IP, 1 K) for a pair of scoreless outings.
  7. sveumrules
    DSL-1 won 8-6. Jamal Zalm (3-4, 2B, HR, SB) did a lil bit of everything while Rafael Martinez (2-3, BB) and Miguel Briceno (2-4) also notched multi hit games. Stanley Encarnacion picked up the win striking out a pair over 3.1 scoreless IP. DSL-2 lost 8-7 in 11 innings. Ney Serrano (2-6), Jadher Arenaimo (1-3, 3 BB), Duncan Garcia (2-6, SB), Yesbel Herrera (2-5, 2B) and Brayan Oropeza (2-3, BB, SB) were the top offensive performers while Alexander Vallecillo (4 IP, 4 K), Erik Ozuna (1 IP, 1 K) and Angel Bautista (1 IP) put up zeroes. It appears they maybe ran out of pitchers (?) as Yesbel Herrera moved from first base to the mound finish the game, surrendering a pair of earned runs over 0.2 IP to take the loss. Looks like Arizona Complex games are still going, wraps forthcoming.
  8. sveumrules
    Nashville wins 5-4. Dustin Peterson & David Dahl each homered while Mario Feliciano chipped in a trio of singles. Luke Barker picked up the save striking out all four batters he faced. Biloxi wins 9-2. Lots of fireworks here with David Hamilton (2-5, 3B), Korry Howell (2-5, 2B, SB), Mitch Longo (3-5, HR, 2B, SB), Thomas Dillard (3-4, BB, STOLEN BASE) and Gabe Holt (3-4) doing most of the damage. Andy Otero (5 IP, 1 ER, 6 K, 0 BB) had a solid start while Peter Strzelecki (2 IP, 2 K) and Taylor Floyd (1 IP, 1 K) were scoreless out of the pen. Wisconsin loses 3-1. Sal Frelick (2-4, 3B), Felix Valerio (2-4) and Freddy Zamora (1-4, 2B) were about it on offense while Cristian Sierra (2.2 IP, 3 K) and Cam Robinson (1 IP, 2 K) put up zeroes in relief. Carolina loses 10-5. Micah Bello (3-5, 2B), Noah Campbell (2-4, BB) and Tyler Black (0-1, 4 BB) were the standout offensive performers while Keegan McCarville (2.1 IP) and Robbie Baker (3 IP, 4 K) had scoreless appearances on the mound.
  9. sveumrules
    Looks like his last game was August 27th. Checking out his game log & he missed about 25 days in May, plus around a week each in July, August & now this stretch, so about a month and a half to two months depending on if he gets back in the field before the season ends.
  10. sveumrules
    The only pitchers with a higher Win Probability Added than Hader since his debut in 2017 are Jacob deGrom, Gerrit Cole and Max Scherzer. My best guess is that no team makes an offer commensurate with that kind of value & Hader remains a Brewer.
  11. sveumrules
    Down in the Dominican Summer League Brewers2 won 12-2 with Ney Serrano (4-4, 2 2B) and Yesbel Herrera (2-4, 2B) leading the offense while Rafael Camacho threw 4 scoreless with 4 K. Brewers1 lost 5-0. Miguel Briceno, Luis Castillo and Diego Larez each singled while Arielbi Gonzalez picked up the tough luck loss with one unearned run over 5 IP.
  12. sveumrules
    On the complex side ACL Gold was rained out while ACL Blue lost 6-0. Beyker Pastran & Larry Ernesto notched the lone Brewer hits while Jose Chavez had the lone shutout appearance with 2 Ks in his IP.
  13. sveumrules
    Nashville loses 5-2 & 3-0. Tim Lopes homered & Hiura chipped in a pair of hits (& a pair of Ks) while Lindblom gave up all 5 runs with Connor Sadzeck & Miguel Sanchez throwing a couple scoreless relief innings in Game 1. Not many highlights in Game 2 with only 4 scattered singles on offense, though RJ Alvarez & Jandel Gustave registered scoreless frames. Biloxi loses 16-8. Brent Diaz & Mitch Longo homered, with Tristen Lutz and Thomas Dillard joining Longo in registering multi hit games. Zack Brown pitched the lone clean inning with a pair of Ks. Wisconsin wins 4-3. Freddy Zamora leads the way with three hits while Felix drove Freddy & Chad McLanahan in with the walk off single as noted above by wibadgers23. Freisis Adames struck out 3 over 3.1 scoreless IP, while Nash Walters struck out hoth batters he faced in the 9th. Carolina loses 9-7. Ethan Murray (2-5), Micah Bello (3-5, HR) and Andre Nnebe (HR) lead the way on offense while Miguel Guerrero picked up the tough luck loss with 5 Ks to go along with 2 unearned runs in his 2 IP.
  14. sveumrules
    Still under 200 total pitches thrown between both years, but StatCast seems to back up that the movement profiles are a little different this year for Topa & the velocity is also down. From looking at this I would guess his pitches probably had more "bite" in 2020 with higher velocity & tighter movement profiles... 2020 Sinker: 97.5 MPH | 25" Vertical Drop | 17.8" Horizontal Break 2021 Sinker: 95.8 MPH | 28.1" Vertical Drop | 17.3" Horizontal Break 2020 Slider: 83.3 MPH | 37.5" Vertical Drop | 15.6" Horizontal Break 2021 Slider: 80.4 MPH | 42" Vertical Drop | 16.7" Horizontal Break
  15. sveumrules
    Sample is too small to really tell. Topa's first MLB appearance he gave up 2 ER in 2 IP, in his next seven appearances after that he gave up 0 ER in 8.2 IP with 2 of those IP against the Dodgers in the postseason, in his last two appearances he gave up 7 ER in 1.2 IP. On the one hand he's given up 9 ER in 12.1 career IP, on the other hand 7 of his 10 appearances have been scoreless. I think he's good enough to be like the 9th/10th guy in a bullpen.
  16. sveumrules
    Yeah, even if you sort the leaderboard by lowest ISO there are still some pretty valuable players there despite the paucity of power. Nicky Lopez (9.3 BB% | 13.7 K% | .072 ISO) has put up 3.5 WAR on account of +8.2 BSR & +10.4 DEF to go with a 292/363/363 (103 wRC+) batting line. Myles Straw (10.1 BB% | 19.3 K% | .080 ISO) has put up 2.9 WAR on account of +4.5 BSR & +8.6 DEF to go with a 267/342/347 (97 wRC+) batting line. I feel like Turang has gotten the JP Crawford comp before with JP currently at 8.1 BB% | 17.5 K% | .092 ISO shaking out to 1.9 WAR with +5.7 DEF and a 263/327/355 (95 wRC+) batting line.
  17. sveumrules
    Yes, the Dodgers win puts them a half game up on the Giants. The Giants 5 game division lead on August 13 disappeared in less than 3 weeks. Even when the Giants had a five game lead back on August 13th, their Division Odds were 49.4% compared to 49.5% for the Dodgers. The last time the Brewers had a division lead as small as five games was way back on July 16th at which point their Division Odds were 85.3%. Not all leads are created equally.
  18. sveumrules
    James Meeker picks up his 4th save with two more scoreless innings for Carolina. Coming up on 50 IP now without giving up an ER between affiliated ball & the Indy Leagues.
  19. sveumrules
    Jake Cousins now unscored upon in 21 of his 23 appearances. 38 of the 96 batters he has faced have struck out.
  20. sveumrules
    2021 staff has posted an 80 ERA- so far with 1988 (87 ERA-) and 1992 (88 ERA-) in 2nd/3rd on the franchise leaderboard. Full leaderboard link... https://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=all&stats=pit&lg=all&qual=0&type=1&season=2021&month=0&season1=1970&ind=1&team=23,ts&rost=0&age=0&filter=&players=0&startdate=1970-01-01&enddate=2021-12-31&sort=14,a
  21. sveumrules
    Reports are they plan to do so starting shortly, just FTR. Rasmussen has started his last three appearances going 13 IP | 2 ER | 8 K | 4 BB. On the season with TB he is at 35 IP | 3.09 ERA | 2.96 FIP | 33 K | 11 BB.
  22. sveumrules
    Question: Does WAR take place in a vacuum, or is it related to the actual record of the team? Would an entire team's WAR equal the games over/under .500 that their record would indicate? Next question: what is the pitching WAR since the trade? That would probably answer my first question. WAR is context neutral, so while there is some correlation to teams wins it is not a straight one to one relationship. I believe replacement level is set at 46 wins, so a replacement team would have around 38/39 wins at this point in the season + 19 WAR from position players + 24 WAR from pitchers = 81/82 wins. Starters have been relatively steady all year, but the bullpen really took off after the deal... Starters thru 5/21: 228 IP | 3.27 ERA | 3.42 FIP | 5.9 rWAR (6th) Starters post 5/22: 470 IP | 3.10 ERA | 3.16 FIP | 12.7 rWAR (2nd) Relievers thru 5/21: 164 IP | 4.59 ERA | 4.83 FIP | 0.3 rWAR (19th) Relievers post 5/22: 317 IP | 3.12 ERA | 3.76 FIP | 5.3 rWAR (3rd)
  23. sveumrules
    September bump-date... Since the All Star Break the Brewers offense has scored the most runs in the NL with their position players ranking 2nd in wRC+ (114) & 1st in WAR (8.7).
  24. sveumrules
    On July 18th, after sweeping the Reds on the road coming out of the All Star Break, the Brewers were 3.5 games behind the Giants for the best NL record & 7.0 games ahead of Cincy for the NL Central lead. For the last month & a half, the odds of the Crew overtaking the Giants for the top seed have been significantly higher than their odds of losing the NLC to the Reds, which is kind of funny considering there's been comparably little discussion about the more likely, positive outcome than there has been consternation about the less likely, negative outcome. But maybe that's just how the internet works.
  25. sveumrules
    September bump-date... Brewers are an MLB best 60-29 since the trade. Rays have the 2nd best record over that stretch at 57-29, so the trade hasn't not worked out for them. LAD (57-31) & SFG (56-29) have also been in the mix. Offense has scored the 3rd most runs in MLB since the trade with the position players notching a 109 wRC+ (7th) and 16.3 WAR (2nd).
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