This isn't something a lot of people here are taking into consideration but it's what will likely keep Burnes from winning. Burnes is about 40 innings behind Wheeler, that's a lot of innings. I mean, nobody is talking about deGrom anymore obviously but his numbers are more insane than Burnes, he's just 50 innings behind. I know Burnes leads in fWAR but, I just kind of don't like fWAR for deciding who pitched better in a given year. It might not be fair but I think actual results should matter more (bWAR) for on field awards than theoretically deserved (fWAR) results. I hope Burnes wins but I don't expect it and wouldn't even think it was a snub if he finished top 3. Even with the IP defecit FanGraphs has Burnes 3rd in the NL in runs allowed based WAR at 6.1 with only Scherzer (6.3) and Buehler (6.9) ahead of him. Obviously different pitchers exert varying degrees of control over their batted ball results (while they have no real control over the defense behind them) so while ERA might represent actual results, they are actual results that to some degree were still outside the pitcher's immediate control. That's why I like to average the two for a composite WAR... Burnes: 6.1 rWAR | 7.1 fWAR | 6.6 cWAR Wheeler: 5.8 rWAR | 6.5 fWAR | 6.15 cWAR Buehler: 6.9 rWAR | 4.6 fWAR | 5.75 cWAR Scherzer: 6.3 rWAR | 4.7 fWAR | 5.5 cWAR Woodruff: 5.9 rWAR | 4.1 fWAR | 5.0 cWAR