SoCalBrewfan

I like Davis, and his home run numbers are cool, but he shouldn't win MVP of the A's this year, much less the American League. I would think he'd be no higher than third or fourth on his own team, and I think you'd pick Betts (or Trout, for that matter) over any two Oakland players added together this year. Yelich has a legit case and lots of buzz but years of Brewer fandom have me worried that the Cub will win just because. There's a compelling narrative for Yelich, though, which seems to matter to some voters as much as the actual performance on the field. IMO Yelich and Cain should both be ahead of Baez, and one of them or DeGrom should win. I freely admit that I'm probably discounting Baez a bit because of his team, of course. This might also be a year to fuel the pitcher-for-MVP debate. There should be several pitchers high in the NL vote, and it could be that a pitcher (DeGrom, presumably) actually wins for a change, but I have my doubts. Arenado and maybe Freddie Freeman should be up there too, as best players on contending teams, and DeGrom, Rendon, Nola, and Scherzer all suffer from their's team's performance. How many Brewers will get at least one MVP vote this year? Could see six guys as candidates, including the big two plus Shaw, Aguilar, Hader, and Jeffress. They won't all get votes, but I bet four of them will.

By pythagorean ratio, the top three teams are 1982, 1978, and 1992. The current team is sixth (2011 is fifth, '79 in seventh, but they're close enough that the ranking could easily change depending on the final three games this year). Those top three teams all led the league in something; '82 and '78 led the league in runs scored, but were 10th and 5th in runs allowed. It looks crazy that the '82 squad was tenth in a 14 team league in runs allowed and still won the pennant, but there was a tight bunching in the middle of the pack and they were only 7 runs behind the fifth best ...and of course they scored almost 80 runs above the 2nd-best Angels. The '92 squad was very unusual by Brewers standards, allowed the fewest runs in the league but were 5th in runs scored. Though it's close, I think the best Brewers team is one of those three, and given the postseason success I'd have to give it to the '82 team. The '11 team and this one were in the top half in both runs scored and allowed (5th and 6th in '11, 7th and 5th this year). For that matter, '79 was 4th/5th, arguably a bit better than either '11 or '18. You'll notice that I didn't mention the 4th-best pythag...aka the team that deserved better. The 1980 squad won 88 but pythag says they should have won 94. Cecil Cooper hit .352 but nobody noticed because George Brett was chasing .400. And even 94 wins wouldn't have helped, because both the Yankees and Orioles won 100+ that year. For those youngsters who tire of hearing about those 1978-83 Brewers, well, I get that. But this list might suggest why some old timers get so nostalgic about them...these were legit year in year out contenders, whereas the more recent history has single years of near glory surrounded by a few years of decent play. For all that those 80s teams had the reputation of being sluggers with no pitching, they were generally in the top third of the league in preventing runs, and had better starting pitching than the current team. That's not to take anything from the current team, of course...also there's hope that the current iteration will have a bit more staying power than some past versions, thankfully.

Pablo Abreu is flying under the radar a bit, but he's more than held his own as an 18 year old in Helena so far (284/400/405). It is hard to tell too much from a few weeks' stats, but so far he's getting on base (15 BB and 20K in about 90 PA) and is six for six on SB, despite being one of the youngest players on the team. He signed for $800K in July 2016 (along with teammate Carmona, the youngest player by a few days), and the reports had him as a line drive bat with a good chance to stay in CF.

Have the Brewers ever had a minor leaguer with a 30/30 season? Pretty sure Greg Vaughn did it once.

I like the idea of Iglesias as a cheap steady option; good glove, not a lot of bat, but predictable at least assuming he's healthy. I tend to agree with Reilly that Stearns is not going to part with our best prospects for a rental, but I am ready to be surprised.

The great advantage (?) of this, if you're looking for optimism, is that it's very clear where improvements are needed, and it doesn't take much to improve upon some of those performances. It's easier to improve this team than it would be if they had average players across the board with no stars. Sadly the league average at catcher is below replacement level, so there's not exactly a bunch of good catchers for the taking. (Oddly, the league average at 1b is similarly poor.). Stearns has already been digging through the scrap pile for infielders and catchers, of course, but the cases for Machado and Realmuto are pretty easy to make, if you can stomach the cost. Also, heck, the Brewers are fifth in overall WAR, even with some major holes. That's really good. Like Boomer said, there's some hope for Santana and Arcia, but the rest of the guys in that category in the original post are not exactly growth stocks. Though in fairness, defense does count, too, and Pina, Arcia, and Santana have at least have some value with the glove this year.

I think some are undervaluing the improvement Machado brings to the lineup. Some probably are, and others might be overvaluing it. I'm sure the team has been very quantitative about this as well as their prospect valuation. Everything I've seen about Stearns suggests that he knows how much value he expects and is willing to give up in a deal. What's the best case scenario? With under 70 games to play, Machado might be worth 2.5 WAR for the rest of the season, if you prorate his first half. This is his best offense and worst defense ever, so you might expect some regression in each to come out in the wash. (FWIW, 2.3-2.6 WAR are the estimates at fan graphs). In about the same number of games, Arcia was negative, so that would suggest a three win swing if Arcia were being replaced by Machado. But of course it doesn't seem likely that they would settle for Arcia going forward without some real signs of improvement. Miller and Saladino have both been above replacement level, .7 fWAR in about 40 games. For the remaining 70 games, expecting some regression, but with the ability to ride the hot hand, maybe you'd expect somewhere like 0.5 WAR from the pair? Machado might then lead to a 2 win swing. That's quick and dirty figuring but probably about right. I would honestly guess that most fans would put the number higher. And of course we have to pay Machado's salary in addition to whatever prospect value is sacrificed. An average back end top 100 pitching prospect is worth about 3 wins (with a big error bar), and of course works for cheap so on average has surplus value. Baltimore needs to recover at least the value of a comp pick or they're better off holding Machado. Balanced against the value proposition of course is that there is a very good chance that two wins will make a difference in the NL this year, possibly the difference between hosting a division series and a one game wild card playoff. Last year Stearns seems to have held to his value calculations and nibbled at the rental market, making cheap deals for Walker and Swarzak, and the Brewers finished six games behind. I am curious to see how much the sense of opportunity will impact his choices this time around.

Miles Mikolas should be on that list; he's been the best free agent starter by far. Props to the Brewers front office for playing their value game and rejecting the narrative of the 'big four' free agent starters. Some of those guys would probably look better with a good defense behind them, though. Minor hasn't pitched badly but Texas has not done a good job turning balls in play into outs. For Lynn or Cobb, the difference between the Twins and Orioles defense (both terrible) and the Brewers defense (very good) might well be enough to change the perception of their value. I wouldn't be surprised to see Stearns pick up a rental starter for cheap from a team with poor defense and watch the numbers improve.

I guess we have to wait and see how the market plays out, but I feel like rentals of most players (Machado an obvious exception) are just not getting multiple good prospects in return. Not from Stearns, at least, who seems to really stick to what he thinks is appropriate value. Last year he made two very astute deals (IMO) for Walker and Swarzak without giving up too much in return. This offseason he was not swayed by the narrative of the 'big 4' free agent starters and played the value game with Chacin. I just don't see him giving up a bunch of potential surplus value for a few dozen innings.

Fair enough, but 'he's never going to be a plus defender' is a very strong statement that I think should be challenged. It seems like people watching the games have agreed with the stats to say that Santana's defense has improved from what was a pretty dismal showing last year, but of course defense is hard to measure and predict. Given his other skills, though, he doesn't need to be a Heyward level defender to be a valuable player.

Yeah, I assume that they wouldn't sign Olsen yet if there were even a small chance that it would affect their ability to sign Turang. Either they are close and know they won't need that money, or they are punting and moving to use their remaining pool minus Turang's slot as effectively as possible. We'll know soon...

His value lies in his power, as he's never going to be a plus defender or table setter. He's been a plus defender this year by most systems. His career obp is .347, which isn't Cain level but is better than most current Brewers; last year's .371 was outstanding and he had great numbers (318/438/570) in the 30 games where he hit #2.

Fangraphs has Cain second in the NL in WAR for position players, behind only Freddie Freeman. BB-Ref has him as the most valuable position player. Both have Scherzer and DeGrom ahead of any position player, and BB-Ref has Nola in 3rd, Cain 4th. Cain has been amazing this year and doesn't get nearly enough credit IMHO; he's a glue guy that is reliable and consistent at all aspects of the game.

Both fangraphs and bb-ref have Cain as Brewers MVP by a pretty wide margin. Defense at a key position and baserunning add a lot of value to Cain, whereas for all the gaudy stats, Aguilar's value is all about the bat. Mind you, I'm not going to complain about Aguilar...it's just that Cain's awesomeness gets overlooked because it's not all captured in counting stats.

In one of those early season not to be taken too seriously statistical eye poppers, Chad McClanahan has an undefined GO/AO ratio. He has nine at bats, five hits, three strikeouts, plus three walks and a HBP, so only once this year has a ball in play turned into an out. Would love to see that guy unlock the potential the scouts saw in him. Re Burnes, hope everything is ok there. There's an off day soon then a doubleheader Saturday, so maybe they're fiddling with the rotation in preparation? Or perhaps they're keeping an eye on innings? Seems like he's struggled in home games really badly this year so this may just have been a good day for a short successful outing for Burnes...I will be glad to get the AAA team out of CS.

I think it's also important to note that the Brewers probably didn't expect to be this competitive when they brought up Arcia...the timeline has accelerated. If this team were muddling along chasing a .500 season or a top 10 draft choice, there would be more patience and less pressure on Arcia to hit. He's a young guy who has showed good tools and has some productive minor league seasons, and it would be a huge mistake to give up on him when he's 23. He doesn't have to hit a lot to be a net positive given his current defense, either. Of course as he ages that balance will shift, and of course this is baseball so things can change quickly, but for now I still consider him the present and at least short term future at short.

Owen Sharts? Poor kid....

you have to at least try to develop your own pitching. And you can't rely on getting lucky and having a Corbin Burnes fall into your lap It seems like your argument is that developing pitching = drafting pitchers in the first two rounds, so by that definition, Fiers or Burnes or Woodruff don't count. I disagree; developing has to mean more than just high draft picks. And, to be clear, Jimmy Nelson does or doesn't count? What about Kirby, Ponce, Medeiros, Lopez, Lemons, all chosen before the third round? The data just don't support your claim that they're not trying....they also support the notion that drafting pitching comes with considerable risk. I honestly think the Brewers would be happy to draft a pitcher high but that their valuation process discounts pitchers enough (due to inconsistency and injury risk) that the BPA on their board is seldom a pitcher. This front office has a very clear idea of how they value players, and they clearly go with value over need. I think that's exactly how they should approach the draft. They also have what one writer called a broad demographic outlook. They do not have a narrow point of view of where to get talent...such that the four top pitchers in their system entering the year included two middle tier college draft choices (Woodruff, Burnes) and two acquired in trades (Peralta, Ortiz). Those guys have largely outshined the first and second round picks, though of course that can change.

Puk had TJ surgery anyway...in fact a few of the highly touted pitchers from that draft have had major injuries. There's real risk to go with the potential reward of picking a pitcher that high, and that should be remembered on draft day.

Yes of course...far better to lead the league in slugging or OPS, and Jimenez is a crazy talented player given his performance, age, and pedigree. Still, before this season I am not sure I would have guessed Ray would be leading the league in anything...it's a huge step forward for the young man and I'm delighted to see it.

I almost hadn't noticed, but Ray has really picked up his offensive game; he leads the league in total bases...this is a league with Eloy Jimenez.

It's risky to adjust your projection of a player or team based on partial season of statistics. This time last year, the Twins, Brewers, and Rockies were all leading their divisions, but projections would still have had the Tribe, Cubs, and Dodgers as division favorites. After several years of 900+ ops, do you believe Paul Goldschmidt's true talent level is now a 200/324/371 hitter? Do you believe that the true talent level for the Brewers is a .620 winning percentage? Could be that fundamental changes in performance have occured, of course, but history and probability suggest that we should expect regression to the mean (improvement in the case of Goldschmidt and decline for the Brewers). It would be better to include error bars on all these projections, which would start out huge and then decrease as more of the season plays out...

Yep, that contract is one that seems very likely to end badly, but in the here and now, with the standings as they are and the Dodgers wounded, there's an opportunity to win the NL West that might not have seemed so available in the offseason. The NL looks strong and the path through the wild card is treacherous; the odds of both wild cards from from the West don't seem good. Thus with other missing pieces in the Arizona rotation, trading Grienke seems unlikely until and unless the rest of the wheels come off the wagon. That is particularly true given that the contract is so crazy...how many teams have the right combination of payroll space, trade return, and rotation needs to do that deal midseason? Situations change, of course, and it could be that Arizona is looking to deal vets in another six weeks, but right now that's the last thing on their minds.

In this scenario, the division-leading Diamondbacks are dealing a key member of their rotation for a song...to what end exactly? Someone in the front office is a Dodgers fan?

The only reasonable guess is "I don't know."