Cool Hand Lucroy

It's the most pitcher-friendly park in the league, right? Gotta be close, especially after the alterations at Oracle.

Javy helping out the Brewers. 4-4 Mets Cards.

There are few players I wanted to put it all together more than Wily. Really thought he was going to be a special kind of pitcher. Glad he's having some success, and I think others are right about the analytics. They've gotten really good at maximizing the impact of even individual plus pitches, especially in MKE but really all across the league. Wily seems to have gotten there just in time. Hope he keeps it up...after tonight.

Yeah, I imagine that's still in "happens more than you think" territory but quickly approaching something much more distinct...

Sounds like still waiting on MRI results. Hope Rowdy is good to go for October. I am a bit nervous after watching the replays...soft tissue, non-contact knee stuff is always nerve-wracking.

People can certainly feel how they want. Enjoy it (or don't) your own way. For me: Burnes was dominant. Threw 90 percent of a no-no with one walk and 14 Ks. What!? That is incredible. The fact that Harder finished the last 10 percent and made it an official no-hitter is icing on the cake. The no-hitter is a cool achievement, but it also involves luck and is relative. CC didn't get one because of a silly scoring decision. AJ Burnett once threw one with 9 walks! That is way less impressive than Burnes, even if he threw 129 pitches and finished the ninth. This is a VERY LEGIT no-no based on SP performance. Everything is relative. Some single-guy no-hitters are more impressive, sure, but some are less. This team is for real and a boatload of fun. I'm going to watch this again and again. I was 1 the last time this happened. Failure is baseball's norm. I will hang on to every success.

There is something cool about a TEAM pitching staff getting a TEAM no-no with two of it's best guys. Harder has earned being a part of something special. It's not traditional, but it:s cool in a different way

Rowdy has had trouble with the knee this year before, right? Didn't he miss some time for it? Hope it's just one of those let's let the guy sit for a few days situations.

There's something you don't see every day. And here I thought the Cubs were the kings of "you gotta find something to play for when you're terrible."

Yeah that was silly. NHL officials best in any sport. Agree. Although soccer officiating is the most fascinating. It's like everyone knows the job is impossible (and the whole culture is about fluidity over precision), so you only have to not seriously mess up to be pretty good.

CC really has been the right guy in Milwaukee. Not saying he always makes the right calls, but I cannot think of a better fit in terms of demeanor and approach.

We could have a thread about the playoff projection systems and the assumptions they use that go into the simulations they run to produce those probabilities. Some of them provide more details about how they create their models than others, but when you see those assumptions, it helps to explain why I don’t treat a 95% chance produced by these models the same as I might for something for which mathematical probabilities are certain, like tossing a coin, rolling a pair of dice, picking a card out of a deck, spinning a roulette wheel, etc. I think all of the models start with some attempt to place a value on the team. The 538 site provides a pretty thorough explanation of how they do that, and they say it is based on just the last 100 games. It also says that they look at things like margin of victory, and that would likely lead to considering the Dodgers the strongest team in MLB based on things like their run differential, not just the won-loss record. They currently have the Giants at 51% to win the division to the Dodgers 49%, essentially a tossup despite the Giants 2 game lead. That probably also reflects a difference in strength of schedule. There are a lot of things the models can’t account for immediately, like the effect of injuries or teams shedding or obtaining impact players. So, I look at them for information and entertainment, but I wouldn’t assume that the probabilities they produce are that precise. Yeah, this is good, though 538 audits all their predictive models pretty thoroughly. https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/checking-our-work/mlb-playoffs/ Their goal really IS to make those probabilities precise, at least with expected statistical variance and within standard deviation margins, etc. They do a pretty good job and adjust their models for accuracy. Since this is the optimism thread, I'll add that the 9% Brewers World Series odds are definitely an undersell!

His OPS+ of 39 is the worst in franchise history, “exceeding” Mike Matheny’s 1996 and Tim Johnson’s 1973 OPS+ of 44. Is he in danger of not being on playoff roster if Taylor comes back Yeah, postseason rosters are very forgiving. Bradley makes it as a pinch-runner only. The defense is bonus. He'll make the roster.

Yeah, I agree. Though, in BA's defense, this game is bad. No rhythm whatsoever. I love baseball, but these kinds of games are hard to enjoy for me aesthetically.

That inning could be used as an ad for the horror of 3TO baseball.

And I thought I was exaggerating. Didn't realize it was to make Gibson look better.

That first pitch of the AB messed with Yeli. Gibson's thrown like 20 pitches and maybe 5 zone strikes.

FB velo is good from Freddy. Harper is just good.

The weirdness of 2020 makes that trade really tough to evaluate. I'm happy with it. Both teams got value. San Diego a bit more quickly so far, but I'm with you. If this is the Lauer we'll get....that'll change.

As an out-of-town fan, I've always targeted the pennant clincher. 2018 worked out really nicely because games 6-7 fell on a Friday-Saturday and game 6 was guaranteed a few days ahead of time. So I was able to get ahold of face value tickets and a cheap flight without much difficulty. I still think game 7 would have gone the other way if Taylor hadn't made that absurd catch to rob Yelich of a game-tying double in the 5th. This year NLCS games 6-7 are on a Saturday-Sunday which is perfect, but it's probably going to take a miracle upset of LA to get the games in Milwaukee (assuming the Brewers survive the NLDS). And I really don't want to go to LA as a visiting fan in the postseason, although I think the tickets will be easy to acquire. I have less interest in the World Series, the tickets are too expensive and it invites too many casual baseball fans. My wife went to a Nats World Series game in 2019 and described it as a "typical baseball game", although that might be more because of the location and the poor performance in the game by the home team. Milwaukee will probably have better WS crowds but I suspect it will still be hard to get in for under $500, while the NLCS was going for the mid-$100s in 2018. That catch is why I can't stand Chris Taylor. That and seeming to just be a Brewer gnat. He took a horrible rout to that ball just to toy with us. I think it only had like a surprisingly low hit probability? Ugh. Stupid play. I was pretty zen after game 4, honestly. Or maybe just too sleep-deprived to really believe. This team feels different.

Radio guy said it was a good pitch. Game day disagrees It looked closer on replay, maybe. That's just not a pitch Rowdy should be swinging at, so stings to get rung up on it.

That was....not close. Sigh.

Well, he is back out there on defense. I mean, you have to trust that these guys know what they're doing. I'm not worried, just trying to piece together the thought process. Maybe a situation where risk of something serious is low or rest can only take you so far, or both.

Garcia doesn't look healthy. Maybe just testing things out, and I can see why you try to test where you are are, but he may need an IL trip.

Great AB from Esco.