Cool Hand Lucroy

Checking in for the first time. Fun to read through these after all the nerves and anxiety. Some observations: 1) CC starting Boyd was a bad call. It was the worse call before the game started, and I'm glad the Brewers made the Cubs pay. Now, the Cubs need Imanaga (2 starts), Taillon, and Boyd (who just got shelled) to win three games. The Brewers just need Priester (2 starts), Freddy, and Q to win 2. Math. 2) Don't underestimate getting Soroka, Civale, and Brown to throw so many innings. Yes, the Cubs got to rest their better arms. But if the Brewers can keep working starting pitchers, that damage today adds up. 3) I think the Hoerner error was the biggest play of the game. Opens the door to a big inning. 4) We seemed to lose a little bit of focus after the 2nd inning. That's understandable, but I really think we need to be in the every AB, the score doesn't matter mindset. It didn't matter much today. Hopefully we keep hammering away at the approach that worked all year on Monday, for 8 innings (and don't need the 9th). 5) Chuorio's injury sucks. I thought he was more angry at having to come out of the game than afraid it was bad, but we'll see what the MRI reveals. It's a tough call if it's borderline. You could replace him with Hoskins, but then he has to sit for the NLCS should you get that far. I don't think that should matter much to you. The question that does matter is: Will you get more value from Jackson as a DH/PH than you would from Hoskins in THIS series? If the answer is yes, he stays. If not...you gotta pull him. 6) The thing that makes Chuorio a tough call is that we have better defenders on the roster and the last guy left off is a proven, veteran power hitter. I'd probably keep Chuorio, provided he's a) not risking long-term injury and b) he can run like Salvy Perez. Finally, every playoff win is good. In some ways, I found this one more stressful than close games, just because, at 9-1, you really had something to lose. Go Brewers!

Been through enough of these to know that bounces probably decide this series. A blooper here, a small defensive error there. We've been on the wrong side of that a few times. Maybe we will be again. But don't let the fact that it's the Cubs distract from the fact that this is just another playoff series. And we're all going to have a peak emotional experience over the next week, however it ends up. That's the beauty and curse of baseball. I hope we win! If we don't, I'll get over it in a day or two. Sports pain is temporary, the memories last a long time! Let's all enjoy getting to experience it together, even when we get angry or heartbroken!

Yup, for sure. This isn't me saying the choice won't work out for the Cubs. It just seems like it's the weaker argument. Edit to add: I suppose the idea is to start Boyd twice, since he can go in Game 4 on full rest. Of course, the Brewers can throw Freddy and Priester two games each too

I think starting Boyd says a lot about how CC views Rea/Asad. Or maybe it shows CC wants Rea/Asad to get multiple innings out of the pen. I don't know. Maybe Boyd dominates. But it's not what I would do. And I think it takes some of the pressure off the Brewers. Cubs start Rea/Asad and win, you're looking at facing their two best arms on full rest down a game. It doesn't feel like it has a ton of upside. And if you lose with Boyd, it's a big blow. Just feels like really risking a lot to throw a guy out of his routine when you have options that aren't actually that much worse, considering how Boyd has pitched against us this year. Make the guy throw some pitches, pressure early, and let's keep their pitching in a tough spot.

Gonna kill off some anxiety by hitting up The Smashing Machine tomorrow, I think. Looks like an engaging sports movie. Hope it's not quite as downbeat as The Iron Claw, but that sure was a good film, in the old tearjerker mold.

It does go both ways, too. Brewers had plenty of Wrigley representation for Game 163. I'm more and more committed to watching the games on mute live. No point in letting the crowd noise get annoying in real time when you can enjoy positive outbursts already knowing the result.

Good thought. I guess it depends on how deep you're hoping the starter goes. Boyd was also throwing in the bullpen at the end of the Cubs game today. Part of his normal routine? Probably on regular rest. On short rest? Boyd and Imanaga seem like the two best pitchers for the Cubs, assuming Horton isn't ready to go. Do you want to throw one of them on a (pretty much) guaranteed short start in Game 1, or have them on full rest (plus a day) for Games 2 and 3? If I'm CC, I go with the latter, but maybe he likes Taillon as much as those other two guys. If he doesn't feel like there's a big drop there, maybe it makes more sense to start Boyd Game 1. I'll predict it's Rea.

End of the day, it's just baseball. Tune out the noise. Nothing that happened in this series changes the fact that it's just better to be a Brewer fan than a Cubs fan.

Not sure it matters much, but it might be slightly preferable for the Yankees to win so the Brewers get the early start time. Taking 7 hours of rest from the Cubs might have some marginal relevance.

This is double, maybe triple true given the more limited pitching availability the Cubs will have Game 1. They'll probably start Rea (who threw an inning yesterday on his side day, I imagine)? Counsell seems to trust Kittredge, Palencia, Pomeranz, and Keller, in something close to that order. Thielbar factors in as well. None of those guys is elite, but all of them have gotten the job done, and there's not a huge drop off from one to the other. I think this comes down to how quickly the Brewers can get the starter out and making sure we get to the bullpen. In the regular season, it's frustrating not to put up a big inning. You'd love a big inning in the playoffs, but given the stress put on the same pitchers, it's good to be woodpeckers and get one run, maybe two in multiple innings.

I know this. If the Brewers hit some dribblers, we'll have way more infield hits. What a weird inning. To be fair, I think the Cubs had some really bad challenge luck, probably should have had a 4th run. The strike three call on Bogaerts was awful, but maybe those things cancel out. The bigger deal for the Padres is not being able to hit with RISP all series, and Darvish having an awful 2nd inning. Were the Cubs that good this week? I don't really think so. They hit two homers in Game 1. And got an RBI blooper and a walk in Game 3. The Padres offense was pretty awful, putting up bad ABs, failing to get runners home with less than two outs (their 4th inning in Game 1 probably cost them the game), and getting just the one, Machado homer. I worry very much about the Cubs offense. But if we keep them in the yard, we'll be in good shape.

Real, real bad. And now O'Hearn got HBP. Should be 1st and 2nd, nobody out.

From a matchup perspective, I feel like the consensus is the Cubs are worse for the Brewers. There's something to that. They play great defense. The Brewers don't hit many homers. It's hard to score when your opponent takes away a lot of hits. And, on the other side, the Cubs hit the ball out of the yard a lot (6th in baseball). I think this holds mostly true, and I'll bet Chicago will be a betting favorite, by more than you'd think given the public money. On the bright side, the Cub arms are not in the same category as the Padres. And they've had to cover three pretty close games. Maybe Drew Pomeranz comes in and dominates, but you'd rather see him trailing by a run in the 8th than Mason Miller. I don't know. I'm don't have a lot of confidence in winning this series, but maybe that's just self-protection. I'd be surprised if it ends after 3 games. Other than that, who knows?

Tatis just put up one of the worst ABs I have seen in the playoffs.

This has been a nervy Cubs-Padres game. The difference is a bloop hit and a walk. And some great defense from Chicago. Otherwise, not a lot of confidence from either team. Cubs have left a lot of runners out there, Padres haven't hit with RISP all series. I'll say this: I think it's better to face the Cubs than the Dodgers.

Dialing myself back to zen about us playing the Cubs. It's 3-5 baseball games. None of the emotional narratives really mean anything in the end. If I have to watch the games on mute to remember that, I will.

Really? Low-key, that might be the most fascinating thing about this for me. I love it, in theory.

Three game 3s today is pretty fun. I would be SHOCKED if Game 1 losers were still 0-fer the round after today, but you never know. I'll take the Guardians and Yankees to win. Cubs/Padres feels 50/50 to me. I could see Darvish dominating his old club or getting shelled. Lean Cubs just because they're due to win a Wrigley elimination game. Maybe Game 1 losers go 3 for 3. Baseball. October. Life, man. LIFE!

The Dodgers look awfully good on offense.

OMG 104 on the corner. Nuts.

Mason Miller throwing 103. Yowza.

I think it really is a horse apiece. Padres power bullpen is tough for the Brewers. But the Brewers, roster wise, are not as talented as anyone in the playoffs, save for the Reds. So, just make these teams play and do what you gotta

Yeah, I've watched one inning of Dodger playoff baseball, and I'm already thinking I was a little crazy for wanting the two seed lol. It's (almost) October! Let the moment-by-moment emotional swings commence!

Well, we'll see if the Padres can get a game tomorrow. I think we'll all be rooting for that, since the series going 3 is clearly better for us (even if the impact is limited by the number of off days). I'm fully with everyone who doesn't want the emotional risk of playing the Cubs in the NLDS. I've been low-key dreading a playoff matchup with them for months. But, if I look at it objectively (as in, if I put, say, Pirates jerseys on the Cubs roster), I'd clearly rather face that team than San Diego. Factor in travel and familiarity and scouting, and I think it might be the better matchup for us. I still don't want to play them. But, if we do, I'll probably do what I can to detach myself a little bit from the more annoying parts of the series (maybe spending less time in the game thread, muting the sound on the TV if needed, avoiding more of the post-game narratives if we lose, etc.) and just generally try to get super zen about the fact that this is baseball and no one controls the outcome, and anything else is just noise.

If it is Lockridge vs. Hoskins it's like the the irresistible force versus the immovable object for Murph. Does he go with the scuffling veteran whose got all the postseason battle scars to inspire the team? Or does he go with the scrappy, quick young kid with defensive prowess and a record of long ABs, not to mention someone who was often seen treating like a cool nephew in the dugout? Tune in Saturday morning...