Cool Hand Lucroy

The reason is: statistical variance.

No. Momentum is fake. But this is the great thing about sports books. Cubs are +112 right now. You think momentum is real, there's money out there to be made.

This one's looking like it's over, so time for some thoughts. I haven't read through the whole thread, but I can guess at its general tone. Observations: 1) This was a bad performance all around. Poor pitching, poor defense, very poor hitting. Cubs deserve credit for the way they approached their ABs. Very focused, really making Freddy work, good swing decisions, and Happ hit the big mistake. 2) The hitting is mostly on us. Boyd was throwing that curveball all day, and we couldn't time it up. I thought he left some pitches there for us. We just didn't do anything. The story of Chicago is bad swing decisions and poor situational hitting. Yelich hitting leadoff was weird, but the idea that it costs us very much seems far-fetched to me. Even against a lefty, that's the guy you want up in a big spot. He K'd. What can you do? 3) That fifth inning was obviously the killer. I hate the bunt with Ortiz, especially with the platoon advantage. He hits into a double play, whatever. You take that risk for a chance at an inning that really swings the momentum. That's the one decision I would want back. Did it cost us the game? No. We scored zero runs. Murphy could have been Connie Mack, and we'd still have lost. 4) Really not much else to say or analyze. We stunk. Now, the series gets a fifth game, which was a pretty darn likely scenario coming in. 5) I suspect many in this thread have declared the series over. That's understandable. Self-protection is important, and it's the hope that kills you. But, of course, the series isn't over. We might lose the series, but it'll be because of whatever we do or don't on Saturday. The Cubs did not play their best baseball in Milwaukee. We did not play our best in Chicago. Now we get one more shot, and let's ride the roller coaster one more time. Just look at what's happened to the Phillies the last two years. That's a great team that just hasn't been able to close. It's baseball. Some teams get snake bit in October. Repeatedly! It happened to the Red Sox for a hundred ***** years. 6) Look at the rosters of these teams. It's hard for me to say ours is better. Truthfully, the Cubs seem pretty clearly better. There is no soft landing in that lineup, their current starting rotation goes one deeper than ours, and their bullpen is pretty good (I think we have the advantage there, but that's probably the only spot). they've run the bases better than us this series, I think. If they win, it'll be because they earned it. 7) Game 5, I imagine we start Patrick or Mis. Priester might factor in on his side day, same for Quintana. We'll have everyone ready, and if our guys keep them in the park, I think we win. 8) So far, run differential for the series is +3. Cubs have hit 7 homers to our 4. We need EITHER some big swings on Saturday or inning after inning of sustained pressure. These games turn on weird crap. Hopefully it benefits us.

Alright, final thoughts before I log off and just enjoy the crap out of this electric, pre-game, playoff baseball, fall-in-the-air nervous excitement. Hopefully, I'll be exhausted and happily delirious come tomorrow and able to slowly savor every post from this game thread. I have no idea what is going to happen tonight. I'm neither confident nor terrified. What I know is I thought a sweep would be the most unlikely outcome. In that sense, it feels like this is where the series really begins, despite being 60-75 percent done. We have a starting pitching advantage tonight. Is it a huge one? Probably not, Game 1 results aside. But I think it's there, and I think it's real. We'll have the more rested bullpen. And our bullpen is better than the Cubs in general, I think. Both of those things are good. My favorite Brewers advantage tonight is that Murph's lineup decisions are easy. Vaughn hits. You feel good about Perkins from the right side. Ortiz and Durbin get platoon advantages. My two biggest worries: 1) Yelich, Turang, and Frelick need hits, and will have to collect them against lefties. If they don't, I have a hard time seeing how we score enough. 2) The Cubs can really hit when they want to. I have a feeling they're going to score either 0-2 or 6+ tonight. we can win either kind of game, but I think our most likely outcome is 3-5 runs. I fear the game may turn on late runs, and the Cubs will be the team to get them. How all of that shakes out is, like I said, anyone's guess. Here's what I know. Barring injury or pitcher overuse, what happens tonight will not matter for any potential Game 5. Let's scratch a couple times in the first third and make them play with the pressure on them. Go Brewers, and may we all be celebrating well into tomorrow.

You get three of the four markets in primetime for the whole night, including the Cubs, who are probably the best national draw. Makes sense to me from a TV perspective, even if I'd prefer it the other way around.

Fair enough re: Miz. I thought he was great in Game 2, but also a couple pitches away from things getting dicey (the Happ K on ball 4 was huge for him). I'll be all nerves in a Game 5 either way, so I guess Miz won't add too much if he's in that spot. We could throw 2014 Bumgarner out there, and I'd be a wreck. Peralta vs. Boyd it is, both managers going with the easiest choice to defend to the media and the public. In this case, Peralta is also probably the right call. If I'm CC, I'd have thrown a righty opener. Rolling with our best! Let's give Freddy a real, serious playoff moment tonight. Lots of run support, and let him unleash his best self.

I get this perspective, but I think "only answer" really diminishes some good arguments for a BP game. 1) You've got a fly ball pitcher with the wind blowing out. Doesn't look like it'll be a huge factor but has to be considered. 2) Uribe, Megill, and Mis have pitched once this series. It's Mis side day today anyway. Ashby's on two days off. Plus there's an off day Friday. We're in pretty good shape and won't be blowing out our pen at all, especially since, if we lose, Freddy's starting Game 5. Certainly, the Cubs are going to rely heavily on their best arms tonight, and they used them all yesterday. 3) The only guy I'd really trust in a win-or-go-home scenario is Freddy. You throw him and lose, you live with it. If we're worried about Mis pitching in a hostile environment on his side day tonight (or Gasser getting an inning or two), how worried are we going to be with him coming into a Game 5? I'm NOT arguing it SHOULD be a bullpen game. I think, originally, I leaned that way. Looking at the wind forecast, it does seem like it won't be a huge factor (6 mph, blowing right to left, maybe out toward center as the game goes along), so I'd probably lean Freddy as of this moment. All I'm saying is: It's a genuinely tough call, and people are going to judge the decision based on the results, which is usually unfair. There are lots of factors to consider. All I'm saying is choices like this are why managers and front offices get paid the big bucks. I'm not going to second-guess what we do either way.

Seen some local Chicago and national folks assuming this will be Peralta vs. Boyd, but I'm thinking the Brewers are going to go bullpen. Good arguments for that AND for Peralta. Like every game so far this series, I have NO idea what to expect going in. Seems like one of these games will turn on late runs rather than early ones (I hoped that'd end up the case last night, but no dice). Let's get to the Cubs bullpen arms tonight. We've had lots of chances against them. I'm not afraid of this going 5 (that seemed a likelier than usual outcome coming in), but it'd sure be nice to grab a win at Wrigley. Go Crew! Get Turang and/or Yelich a big RBI hit and I think we win.

Funny thing is, Toronto is like the 5th or 6th biggest market, and it might be even bigger since the Jays are basically Team Canada. I'm kind of rooting for the Dodgers tonight just because I'd rather the Brewers game start at 6. But that may be silly.

Wrote about this in the Game 4 thread, but if it's Boyd, I'll take that as a Brewer fan. Makes Murph's lineup choices ridiculously easy. If I'm CC, I might start Civale (not blue). I think Soroka or a different righty opener (could even see Ben Brown or Palencia) will be the call in the end. More extended reasoning in other thread.

Alright, so the SP decision is legitimately tough. The argument for Freddy is: he's our best pitcher, it's a close out game, and he's on regular rest. Do you really want to mess around? The argument for a bullpen game is: Freddy's a fly ball pitcher with the wind blowing out (it appears), the off day on Friday will make everyone available for Game 5, on reasonable rest even if you lose, and maybe Freddy's better on six days rest rather than 4, since that's closer to his regular season routine. You can probably get 27 outs from some combo of Ashby, Mis (his side day anyway), Megill, Uribe, Koenig (an out or two), Mears (maybe with a clean inning for once), and maybe you throw Gasser or Anderson early. I think I would lean toward BP game, but it's one of those calls where there's no right answer, and everyone will call you a genius if your choice works and a fool if it doesn't. It's why these guys get paid their salaries. I'm not going to worry about it either way. The org's earned some trust on this (and it will be an organizational choice). I'm actually more interested in this from the Cubs perspective. What would you do, @Ryno23? Boyd is the first name that comes to mind, but throwing a lefty just makes Murph's lineup choices SO easy. You start Vaughn at first, Perkins in CF (on his better side of the plate), and feel great about your platoon advantages with Ortiz and Durbin. Hell, you could give Danny Jansen an AB in a big spot early if you really wanted. Plus, Boyd looks Shaun Marcum level fading right now and the Brewers have done a number on him a few times this year. Maybe having 4 days rest helps, but you figure he's only giving you 3-4 innings either way, right? If I'm CC, I'm starting a right-handed opener. Probably Soroka, but I could see Rea too. The real out of the box choice is Civale, which sounds crazy, but the guy has been really good and already twirled against the Brewers in Game 1. He's on full rest and might actually give you a little more length than Boyd. You could perhaps make a similar argument with Ben Brown, though likely for 2 innings instead of 3 or 4. Soroka is probably the easiest choice to defend. But honestly? I'd be real tempted to go with Civale and play to win the game rather than the press conference. As a Brewer fan, if saw Civale starting, I'd immediately think we were going to have zero runs in the 5th inning. That's probably an exaggeration, but I think it would the gutsiest move CC could make. I don't want to see that dude on the mound in Game 4.

I haven't read through this whole thread, but some observations, aside from the obvious, which is that Priester was awful. Feel bad for the kid. He'll bounce back. 1) I thought this would be a nailbiter coming down to BABIP luck. Turned out, it was a nailbiter coming down to RISP. Potato, potahto. 2) All that stress and tension and the winning run scores because of a wild pitch. Funny game. 3) Lockridge had a weird night. He has a great AB and then swings at ball four. Then, he bunts it too hard, but in the right spot. Fine margins between the bad night he had and an incredible role-playing night. I'm fine with the bunt there. And Durbin really had a shot to just keep running and score on that play too. Can't fault him too much, but that play just went the Cubs way. Not getting a run off the Chuorio leadoff double and with first and third and one out in that inning was the biggest flaw in our game. 4) Speaking of bad swing decisions, we made a few. Collins AB really hurt, right after the Bauers HR. He gets on there, the whole inning feels different. Got lay off that pitch in the dirt. 5) We played great defense tonight. If not for Sal's excellent catch in the first, this never gets so tight. 6) I was kind of feeling a Turang bunt in the 8th. Just a brutal AB from a guy who was so hot but seems completely lost this series. I said he's going to need to get a big hit for us to win at Wrigley. Didn't happen tonight. 7) I thought Murph managed this game pretty well, though I'd have gone to Gasser instead of Koenig in the 7th and probably wouldn't have had Ashby warming. Minor detail. Koenig threw 7 pitches. He's probably a one- or two-out guy tomorrow, but everyone else is ready to go. 8) Really impressive stuff from Chad Patrick. Poise. Command. Maturity. Can't give that dude enough credit. 9) I know there's probably a lot of anxiety and hand-wringing in these 30 or so pages. But this team has played good baseball this series. We didn't get the big hit tonight. That's it. It happens in just about every close game of every season. I've gone from thinking losing to the Cubs would be the newest way this team could hurt me to wanting us to win but at peace with whatever the outcome is. Watching this series, I just don't feel the fear this year. Don't get me wrong, I'm nervous and pacing and all elevated hart rate, but the sense of impending dread is gone because you really can't ask for more from these guys. So far, these three games have been what sports are all about, and all the rivalry, manager, soap opera stuff is just noise.

Well, this is about the least stressful NLDS game one can imagine, Game 3 while up 2-0. Still, it's going to be a stressfest. Playoff baseball, where every game, sometimes every inning is its own novel. I really have no idea what to expect. Feels like we're due a nailbiter determined by BABIP luck. I'll be curious to see how Murph manages the bullpen after heavy usage Monday and a game tomorrow. If the Cubs are all hands on deck, I think we should be most hands on deck. I'd play it like this: Keep Ashby out of this one. If you need a lefty, it's Gasser/Koenig. Let Mis rest too, and hold Megill/Uribe for the 8th-9th, maybe 7th depending on game situation. Ideally, if you lose, you want to be able to roll with Ashby, Mis, and the max you can get from Megill and Uribe in Game 4. Those four plus Mears and Quintana (or just Freddy), and you feel in okay shape. Logging off until after the game. Let's keep this mojo going!!

My final thought on this game is that I really saw Contreras' impact as a receiver. Not just in terms of pitch framing, but in terms of calling a game and communicating with his pitchers. Intangible, but you won't convince it didn't make an impact with Mis and Patrick, not to mention everyone else. Plus, after his basehit in the first, he was making sure that dugout was up and ready to capitalize.

The benefit of being up 2-0 is as follows: Taillon starts for the Cubs, but CC will not mess around. If the Brewers just do what they do (make him throw pitches, get runners on base, etc.), you can force an early pitching change EVEN IF we have 0 runs. We're entering the only back-to-back of the series, so you can give Preister a little leash and hopefully make the Cubs use a lot of their pen. That depends on Priester being good (doesn't have to be great--5 innings, 2 runs would be good, as would 6 and 3). It also depends on pressure. Baserunners. Pitches seen. Woodpeckers all the way. Any one game can swing these series. Stay focused, but play loose. We've excelled at both of those things so far, and let's just keep doing that.

Lovely to be up 2-0, and great to go through this thread. Stray observations: 1) I was wrong about Priester coming in. I still think I would have started him, but Mis really showed up and made an impact. Nothing wrong with having your second best guy starting Game 3, especially up 2-0. He could get shelled. But it's a good spot to be in. 2) I thought Chad Patrick's inning was low-key the turning point of the game. It was our first 1-2-3 inning, and it really set us up for the final third, not just in terms of having our best guys available, but in terms of matchups and where the Cubs were in their batting order. 3) Then, Koenig, Megill, and Uribe prevented the lineup from turning over and giving Hoerner/Suzuki ABs with men on. Major hats off to the pen. 4) Chuorio looked really awkward running and fielding, but what a sweet, sweet swing. 5) Some very good defense today, especially from Vaughn and Sal. 6) Turang hasn't looked very good at the plate, outside of his first AB. I think he's going to have to get a big hit for us in Chicago. Go Brewers!!

I think we would prefer the wind to be blowing in, though maybe a little less important with a ground ball pitcher on the mound.

About to log off until post game (which probably means tomorrow lol), but Chuorio leading off is tentatively good news. Hopefully, he's still mostly himself. Saw CC juggling his lineup to counter Ashby as opener. Time will tell if that's more moves for the sake of moves or if it pays off. He's definitely pushed a lot of buttons already through 1 game and a pregame. Guessing Turner gets only the one AB. He may not even play the field.

American sports are so unnaturally averse to ties, it's weird. I wish the NHL had kept them too. Giving 3 pts total in some games and 2 in others is weird, but this isn't the Stanley Cup thread :( Anyway, I supposed the ties would get a little complicated in the standings, but if you let games go 11 innings, I doubt there'd be too many. You'd just have to figure out if you wanted to bluntly value win pct or do something more mathematically nuanced. I mean, it works fine in the NFL.

Well, got back from a run this morning and saw a woodpecker staring right at me from the tree in the front yard. Make of that what you will.

But there's really no "locking it down" after 9-12 outs. Just too much game left. I want Ashby to get 3 outs and I HOPE he can get 6. Getting 9 would be an awesomely insane thing, and it probably means he's doing it on 35 pitches. I think you absolutely want him fresh as possible for Game 3.

I think CC starting Boyd yesterday was really different. That move involved a guy doubly out of his routine, going on three days rest AND having warmed up in the bullpen just the two days before. Plus, the Cubs had TWO guys, in Rea and Asad who had both pitched awfully well at times this year AND an overworked bullpen. Truthfully, the Cubs could've started Rea, had Asad back him up, and lost the game, and then had Imanaga/Boyd in whatever order you wanted on full rest. And Boyd had struggled against the Brewers this year. The only good thing about it (from the Cubs perspective) was allowing for Boyd/Imanaga to start 4 of the 5 games. It's pretty obvious those are the guys CC trusts most right now. I think this decision has more logic behind it, especially because it isn't out of Priester's routine. I also imagine it's something they've been discussing quite a bit. Now, if Priester ends up NOT being the bulk guy after Ashby, that'll be something I second-guess (unless it's like 6-0 Cubs or something). This should be his game as much as possible. Is it a gamble? Yup. But at least this one has a payoff. The Boyd decision really didn't. The only good thing about it (from the Cubs perspective) was allowing for Boyd/Imanaga to start 4 of the 5 games. But now there's no way the Brewers will be intimidated by Boyd in Game 4, and I imagine there will be pressure for a quick hook. Of course, he could come back and dominate. It's baseball. But Boyd was CC really, really trying "new stuff." Ashby opener for Priester isn't "new stuff" at all. It's a risk. But one you can justify pretty easily.

I think, if you're going to use an opener, do it at home. That top of the 1st matters a lot. And, look, maybe Ashby struggles. But you've got trust in him, and it's not a totally new thing for Priester. If Ashby struggles, you got a lot of game to make it up, and Priester can still throw for a while. If Ashby is good, suddenly you might only need to cover 22 or 24 outs instead of 27. Seems like a good gamble.

Hadn't thought of that, but Priester's had openers before, so I'd imagine that's the plan. Ashby for 1-2, then Quinn.

I would be SHOCKED (and think it's the wrong choice) if Q goes tomorrow. Ground ball pitcher at home against an offense fueled by homers? No brainer. Doubly so when it's a guy who has been as good as Quinn.