Cool Hand Lucroy

I haven't read through this whole thread, but some observations, aside from the obvious, which is that Priester was awful. Feel bad for the kid. He'll bounce back. 1) I thought this would be a nailbiter coming down to BABIP luck. Turned out, it was a nailbiter coming down to RISP. Potato, potahto. 2) All that stress and tension and the winning run scores because of a wild pitch. Funny game. 3) Lockridge had a weird night. He has a great AB and then swings at ball four. Then, he bunts it too hard, but in the right spot. Fine margins between the bad night he had and an incredible role-playing night. I'm fine with the bunt there. And Durbin really had a shot to just keep running and score on that play too. Can't fault him too much, but that play just went the Cubs way. Not getting a run off the Chuorio leadoff double and with first and third and one out in that inning was the biggest flaw in our game. 4) Speaking of bad swing decisions, we made a few. Collins AB really hurt, right after the Bauers HR. He gets on there, the whole inning feels different. Got lay off that pitch in the dirt. 5) We played great defense tonight. If not for Sal's excellent catch in the first, this never gets so tight. 6) I was kind of feeling a Turang bunt in the 8th. Just a brutal AB from a guy who was so hot but seems completely lost this series. I said he's going to need to get a big hit for us to win at Wrigley. Didn't happen tonight. 7) I thought Murph managed this game pretty well, though I'd have gone to Gasser instead of Koenig in the 7th and probably wouldn't have had Ashby warming. Minor detail. Koenig threw 7 pitches. He's probably a one- or two-out guy tomorrow, but everyone else is ready to go. 8) Really impressive stuff from Chad Patrick. Poise. Command. Maturity. Can't give that dude enough credit. 9) I know there's probably a lot of anxiety and hand-wringing in these 30 or so pages. But this team has played good baseball this series. We didn't get the big hit tonight. That's it. It happens in just about every close game of every season. I've gone from thinking losing to the Cubs would be the newest way this team could hurt me to wanting us to win but at peace with whatever the outcome is. Watching this series, I just don't feel the fear this year. Don't get me wrong, I'm nervous and pacing and all elevated hart rate, but the sense of impending dread is gone because you really can't ask for more from these guys. So far, these three games have been what sports are all about, and all the rivalry, manager, soap opera stuff is just noise.

Well, this is about the least stressful NLDS game one can imagine, Game 3 while up 2-0. Still, it's going to be a stressfest. Playoff baseball, where every game, sometimes every inning is its own novel. I really have no idea what to expect. Feels like we're due a nailbiter determined by BABIP luck. I'll be curious to see how Murph manages the bullpen after heavy usage Monday and a game tomorrow. If the Cubs are all hands on deck, I think we should be most hands on deck. I'd play it like this: Keep Ashby out of this one. If you need a lefty, it's Gasser/Koenig. Let Mis rest too, and hold Megill/Uribe for the 8th-9th, maybe 7th depending on game situation. Ideally, if you lose, you want to be able to roll with Ashby, Mis, and the max you can get from Megill and Uribe in Game 4. Those four plus Mears and Quintana (or just Freddy), and you feel in okay shape. Logging off until after the game. Let's keep this mojo going!!

My final thought on this game is that I really saw Contreras' impact as a receiver. Not just in terms of pitch framing, but in terms of calling a game and communicating with his pitchers. Intangible, but you won't convince it didn't make an impact with Mis and Patrick, not to mention everyone else. Plus, after his basehit in the first, he was making sure that dugout was up and ready to capitalize.

The benefit of being up 2-0 is as follows: Taillon starts for the Cubs, but CC will not mess around. If the Brewers just do what they do (make him throw pitches, get runners on base, etc.), you can force an early pitching change EVEN IF we have 0 runs. We're entering the only back-to-back of the series, so you can give Preister a little leash and hopefully make the Cubs use a lot of their pen. That depends on Priester being good (doesn't have to be great--5 innings, 2 runs would be good, as would 6 and 3). It also depends on pressure. Baserunners. Pitches seen. Woodpeckers all the way. Any one game can swing these series. Stay focused, but play loose. We've excelled at both of those things so far, and let's just keep doing that.

Lovely to be up 2-0, and great to go through this thread. Stray observations: 1) I was wrong about Priester coming in. I still think I would have started him, but Mis really showed up and made an impact. Nothing wrong with having your second best guy starting Game 3, especially up 2-0. He could get shelled. But it's a good spot to be in. 2) I thought Chad Patrick's inning was low-key the turning point of the game. It was our first 1-2-3 inning, and it really set us up for the final third, not just in terms of having our best guys available, but in terms of matchups and where the Cubs were in their batting order. 3) Then, Koenig, Megill, and Uribe prevented the lineup from turning over and giving Hoerner/Suzuki ABs with men on. Major hats off to the pen. 4) Chuorio looked really awkward running and fielding, but what a sweet, sweet swing. 5) Some very good defense today, especially from Vaughn and Sal. 6) Turang hasn't looked very good at the plate, outside of his first AB. I think he's going to have to get a big hit for us in Chicago. Go Brewers!!

I think we would prefer the wind to be blowing in, though maybe a little less important with a ground ball pitcher on the mound.

About to log off until post game (which probably means tomorrow lol), but Chuorio leading off is tentatively good news. Hopefully, he's still mostly himself. Saw CC juggling his lineup to counter Ashby as opener. Time will tell if that's more moves for the sake of moves or if it pays off. He's definitely pushed a lot of buttons already through 1 game and a pregame. Guessing Turner gets only the one AB. He may not even play the field.

American sports are so unnaturally averse to ties, it's weird. I wish the NHL had kept them too. Giving 3 pts total in some games and 2 in others is weird, but this isn't the Stanley Cup thread :( Anyway, I supposed the ties would get a little complicated in the standings, but if you let games go 11 innings, I doubt there'd be too many. You'd just have to figure out if you wanted to bluntly value win pct or do something more mathematically nuanced. I mean, it works fine in the NFL.

Well, got back from a run this morning and saw a woodpecker staring right at me from the tree in the front yard. Make of that what you will.

But there's really no "locking it down" after 9-12 outs. Just too much game left. I want Ashby to get 3 outs and I HOPE he can get 6. Getting 9 would be an awesomely insane thing, and it probably means he's doing it on 35 pitches. I think you absolutely want him fresh as possible for Game 3.

I think CC starting Boyd yesterday was really different. That move involved a guy doubly out of his routine, going on three days rest AND having warmed up in the bullpen just the two days before. Plus, the Cubs had TWO guys, in Rea and Asad who had both pitched awfully well at times this year AND an overworked bullpen. Truthfully, the Cubs could've started Rea, had Asad back him up, and lost the game, and then had Imanaga/Boyd in whatever order you wanted on full rest. And Boyd had struggled against the Brewers this year. The only good thing about it (from the Cubs perspective) was allowing for Boyd/Imanaga to start 4 of the 5 games. It's pretty obvious those are the guys CC trusts most right now. I think this decision has more logic behind it, especially because it isn't out of Priester's routine. I also imagine it's something they've been discussing quite a bit. Now, if Priester ends up NOT being the bulk guy after Ashby, that'll be something I second-guess (unless it's like 6-0 Cubs or something). This should be his game as much as possible. Is it a gamble? Yup. But at least this one has a payoff. The Boyd decision really didn't. The only good thing about it (from the Cubs perspective) was allowing for Boyd/Imanaga to start 4 of the 5 games. But now there's no way the Brewers will be intimidated by Boyd in Game 4, and I imagine there will be pressure for a quick hook. Of course, he could come back and dominate. It's baseball. But Boyd was CC really, really trying "new stuff." Ashby opener for Priester isn't "new stuff" at all. It's a risk. But one you can justify pretty easily.

I think, if you're going to use an opener, do it at home. That top of the 1st matters a lot. And, look, maybe Ashby struggles. But you've got trust in him, and it's not a totally new thing for Priester. If Ashby struggles, you got a lot of game to make it up, and Priester can still throw for a while. If Ashby is good, suddenly you might only need to cover 22 or 24 outs instead of 27. Seems like a good gamble.

Hadn't thought of that, but Priester's had openers before, so I'd imagine that's the plan. Ashby for 1-2, then Quinn.

I would be SHOCKED (and think it's the wrong choice) if Q goes tomorrow. Ground ball pitcher at home against an offense fueled by homers? No brainer. Doubly so when it's a guy who has been as good as Quinn.

Checking in for the first time. Fun to read through these after all the nerves and anxiety. Some observations: 1) CC starting Boyd was a bad call. It was the worse call before the game started, and I'm glad the Brewers made the Cubs pay. Now, the Cubs need Imanaga (2 starts), Taillon, and Boyd (who just got shelled) to win three games. The Brewers just need Priester (2 starts), Freddy, and Q to win 2. Math. 2) Don't underestimate getting Soroka, Civale, and Brown to throw so many innings. Yes, the Cubs got to rest their better arms. But if the Brewers can keep working starting pitchers, that damage today adds up. 3) I think the Hoerner error was the biggest play of the game. Opens the door to a big inning. 4) We seemed to lose a little bit of focus after the 2nd inning. That's understandable, but I really think we need to be in the every AB, the score doesn't matter mindset. It didn't matter much today. Hopefully we keep hammering away at the approach that worked all year on Monday, for 8 innings (and don't need the 9th). 5) Chuorio's injury sucks. I thought he was more angry at having to come out of the game than afraid it was bad, but we'll see what the MRI reveals. It's a tough call if it's borderline. You could replace him with Hoskins, but then he has to sit for the NLCS should you get that far. I don't think that should matter much to you. The question that does matter is: Will you get more value from Jackson as a DH/PH than you would from Hoskins in THIS series? If the answer is yes, he stays. If not...you gotta pull him. 6) The thing that makes Chuorio a tough call is that we have better defenders on the roster and the last guy left off is a proven, veteran power hitter. I'd probably keep Chuorio, provided he's a) not risking long-term injury and b) he can run like Salvy Perez. Finally, every playoff win is good. In some ways, I found this one more stressful than close games, just because, at 9-1, you really had something to lose. Go Brewers!

Been through enough of these to know that bounces probably decide this series. A blooper here, a small defensive error there. We've been on the wrong side of that a few times. Maybe we will be again. But don't let the fact that it's the Cubs distract from the fact that this is just another playoff series. And we're all going to have a peak emotional experience over the next week, however it ends up. That's the beauty and curse of baseball. I hope we win! If we don't, I'll get over it in a day or two. Sports pain is temporary, the memories last a long time! Let's all enjoy getting to experience it together, even when we get angry or heartbroken!

Yup, for sure. This isn't me saying the choice won't work out for the Cubs. It just seems like it's the weaker argument. Edit to add: I suppose the idea is to start Boyd twice, since he can go in Game 4 on full rest. Of course, the Brewers can throw Freddy and Priester two games each too

I think starting Boyd says a lot about how CC views Rea/Asad. Or maybe it shows CC wants Rea/Asad to get multiple innings out of the pen. I don't know. Maybe Boyd dominates. But it's not what I would do. And I think it takes some of the pressure off the Brewers. Cubs start Rea/Asad and win, you're looking at facing their two best arms on full rest down a game. It doesn't feel like it has a ton of upside. And if you lose with Boyd, it's a big blow. Just feels like really risking a lot to throw a guy out of his routine when you have options that aren't actually that much worse, considering how Boyd has pitched against us this year. Make the guy throw some pitches, pressure early, and let's keep their pitching in a tough spot.

Gonna kill off some anxiety by hitting up The Smashing Machine tomorrow, I think. Looks like an engaging sports movie. Hope it's not quite as downbeat as The Iron Claw, but that sure was a good film, in the old tearjerker mold.

It does go both ways, too. Brewers had plenty of Wrigley representation for Game 163. I'm more and more committed to watching the games on mute live. No point in letting the crowd noise get annoying in real time when you can enjoy positive outbursts already knowing the result.

Good thought. I guess it depends on how deep you're hoping the starter goes. Boyd was also throwing in the bullpen at the end of the Cubs game today. Part of his normal routine? Probably on regular rest. On short rest? Boyd and Imanaga seem like the two best pitchers for the Cubs, assuming Horton isn't ready to go. Do you want to throw one of them on a (pretty much) guaranteed short start in Game 1, or have them on full rest (plus a day) for Games 2 and 3? If I'm CC, I go with the latter, but maybe he likes Taillon as much as those other two guys. If he doesn't feel like there's a big drop there, maybe it makes more sense to start Boyd Game 1. I'll predict it's Rea.

End of the day, it's just baseball. Tune out the noise. Nothing that happened in this series changes the fact that it's just better to be a Brewer fan than a Cubs fan.

Not sure it matters much, but it might be slightly preferable for the Yankees to win so the Brewers get the early start time. Taking 7 hours of rest from the Cubs might have some marginal relevance.

This is double, maybe triple true given the more limited pitching availability the Cubs will have Game 1. They'll probably start Rea (who threw an inning yesterday on his side day, I imagine)? Counsell seems to trust Kittredge, Palencia, Pomeranz, and Keller, in something close to that order. Thielbar factors in as well. None of those guys is elite, but all of them have gotten the job done, and there's not a huge drop off from one to the other. I think this comes down to how quickly the Brewers can get the starter out and making sure we get to the bullpen. In the regular season, it's frustrating not to put up a big inning. You'd love a big inning in the playoffs, but given the stress put on the same pitchers, it's good to be woodpeckers and get one run, maybe two in multiple innings.

I know this. If the Brewers hit some dribblers, we'll have way more infield hits. What a weird inning. To be fair, I think the Cubs had some really bad challenge luck, probably should have had a 4th run. The strike three call on Bogaerts was awful, but maybe those things cancel out. The bigger deal for the Padres is not being able to hit with RISP all series, and Darvish having an awful 2nd inning. Were the Cubs that good this week? I don't really think so. They hit two homers in Game 1. And got an RBI blooper and a walk in Game 3. The Padres offense was pretty awful, putting up bad ABs, failing to get runners home with less than two outs (their 4th inning in Game 1 probably cost them the game), and getting just the one, Machado homer. I worry very much about the Cubs offense. But if we keep them in the yard, we'll be in good shape.