Cool Hand Lucroy

Prioritizing offense for sure. We'll see how long they stay with Bauers in left. But this gives you flexibility and is probably your best offensive 9. Last one from me until post game! Let's get this done!

Yeah, for sure. This makes sense. It's not something I'd thought of. It would explain a lot of he can't be in the field for whatever reason.

I guess the "good" news is: If Yelich stinks for three more games, we're probably not going to have to worry about facing Snell again. And if he's good, you probably give him the ABs. So, maybe a moot point. It's just kind of part of the October deal to have one of your better (of late) and more powerful (in his career) RHBs locked out of the lineup because the other catcher is the most important player on the team.

No one ever knows how all this will go, but I would guess: 1) If we lose the series, we'll either be saying: a) the Dodgers were just better or b) We really missed the big chance in Game 1. 2) If the Dodgers lose series, they'll look back at this game and believe it highlighted the weakness of their bullpen more than the strength of their starting pitching.

Andy Pages is a black hole (on base once in 29 PAs). Matt Shaw is very good (on base 7 times in 23 PAs). Ortiz has basically been Bryson Stott (on base twice in 14 PAs) in the playoffs. He hasn't been good, and he's certainly not continuing the tradition of light-hitting Brewers shortstops crushing October. I just think, on the list of things plaguing the Brewers offense, Joey Ortiz himself ranks about 6th. Want to fold it into "bottom of the order production" and maybe it's 4th. Even with a half a billion dollars, you can't buy October hitting from the 9 spot. You just have to luck into it. So far, we haven't. I agree with you that it might make sense to let Mona give it a shot tonight. Why not? But I think it would be a "let's throw some crap at the wall" kind of choice more than anything.

This. I think @adambr2 makes some good points about needing to score and maybe needing to switch things up when you know you're going to need runs. If there's ever a time to switch out Ortiz for Mona it's probably tonight, with a strikeout/fly ball pitcher on the mound. Can always go to Ortiz halfway through it you need defense. But I'm not convinced Mona is a clear upgrade. Joey's been on base 4 times in 18 PAs. That's really not a black hole given what you expect from that spot in the playoffs. Bigger issue is that we haven't gotten a lot of production from the 8th spot in the order either. I'm not sure you actually gain very much by putting in Mona, unless you expect him to get on base twice. Seems like a lot to ask against Yamamoto. I know we hit lefties well this year, but I just like our odds better against right-handed starters in the postseason. The platoon advantage from Yelich, Turang, and Frelick, plus the ability to get Jake "Babe" Bauers in the lineup far outweighs the smaller platoon downgrade from Contreras and Chourio. The biggest decision tonight seems like the OF. I would run out the same lineup as last night because I think you need Collins hitting from his stronger left side in the lineup, over Perkins hitting from his weaker side. Tough call given the defensive downgrade, but Collins looked okay in left yesterday, and Sal seemed fine in center. The big arm maybe offsets Perkins superior range and playmaking. Plus, we just need to get the starter out of the game. That should be priority number one. If your defense costs you 2 runs and you lose, you didn't score enough anyway (and I think lefty Collins is a bigger upgrade over lefty Perkins than righty Mona over righty Ortiz). One thing I WOULD do if we face Snell again is let Jansen hit as DH. I know that seems a little wild, but use the extra righty bat. You can play Yelich in the OF (and sit Sal) or sit him and get him an AB or two later in the game.

For the optimists: The road team winning Game 1 of a 7-game series, across all sports, has something like a 50-60 percent chance of winning the series. That's...not that good. Obviously, the Brewers are underdogs and have the less-talented roster, but I've seen the Brewers open 2 NLCS opportunities with Game 1, home victories, only to lose the series. Every game is its own story. Even if we go down 2-0, we get the off day, win on Thursday, and suddenly Game 4 is huge for both teams. The amount of swing possible when you have to win 4 vs. 3 is just a lot higher. I'm also just more and more aware of how many things have to go right for the Brewers to win games in the playoffs. We got A LOT of breaks last night, in terms of the double play and hard-hit balls for outs, but we also only put together one real offensive inning, and even in that inning, we had one hit. When your hope for tying the game comes down to a batter not getting out of the way of an inside fastball, you were really hoping to steal one. That said, pitch selection was again a bugaboo for us. Snell had a lot to do with that, but at a certain point we needed to sit on changeups and curveballs and make him throw the fastball. Never happened. Gotta learn the lesson. The most important over/under for me, for the series, is innings pitched by the Dodgers starters. I thought Priester/Peralta needed to combine for 8-10, and we needed to hope for less than 12 from Snell/Yamamoto. Did okay on the first part. Really struggling on the second. If we hold Yamamoto to 5 or 6, that's okay if Freddy matches. Really need him to shine, though. I know people are down on Yelich. Rightfully so. He's struggled in his postseason career with Milwaukee. For me, I think it's just that I know he has to hit for us to win. I don't blame him if he can't. That's baseball. But he hit 29 homers for us this year. After getting on base a lot early in the Cubs series, he's really had a tough go. Maybe the 9th inning walk gets him going. I know this: he's a guy who tends to hit in bunches, and the longer we're around, the more he gets the chance to put a string together. Who knows what we're saying this time next week, other than that it was a successful season. For now, I'm just glad to get one more week with these guys and fascinated to see how they respond. You can't fault their heart or effort. They're a fun group, and one I'm proud to root for, which wasn't as much the case in 2021 and 2023 (just too much offensive ineptitude for my taste). Go Crew!

Thoughts on this one: 1) I will never see anything like the play in the 4th. My goodness. Baseball. What else can you say? 2) If the Dodgers get 7 innings from their starter, we are not going to win games in this series. Snell was great. We have to be better at the plate. 3) Our bullpen just wasn't quite as sharp as it needed to be. Patrick and Uribe both looked human. Dodgers had a lot of baserunners. They hit the ball harder. If we had won, it would've been highway robbery. 3) People can bag on Brice if they want. He swung at a bad pitch. But our lefties were 0 for the game, until Bauers doubled and Yeli walked. If our lefties don't hit, we don't win. Lot of blame to go around offensively. 4) Silver lining is we got to Sasaki. I think we all would have taken 1-1 headed to LA. Let's make that happen tomorrow, and all is okay. We weren't good enough tonight. The Dodgers were better. Change that tomorrow.

Wow. That lineup is quite notable? I hadn't thought we'd move Sal to center and Jackson to right. Time for us to see if Isaac Collins is ready. I am PUMPED! Ashby, oof. I don't know. Would've gone with Koenig, though maybe they want him for possible leverage lefties. Let's hope the day off did Aaron good. At this point, these are all tough calls. I will continue to beat the drum for our lefties needing to join the party offensively. Saw some glimpses of that Saturday. May it bloom. 2.5 hrs from first pitch, and I genuinely feel great. Pressure is off. Season validated. Underdogs. It's time to have ***** FUN in October. Win or lose, I'm going to enjoy this ride. My main hope tonight is that we get to see Quinn Priester pitch like the Quinn Priester we saw all summer. Even in a losing effort, that dude deserves a bounce back. And I think he's the best bulk option tonight. Go Brewers!!!

Very surprised at Gasser's inclusion. Myers for Mears surprises me given how much the org trusted Mears to get out of jams. I guess they just see that as less valuable in a series that will demand more bulk relief, especially with only 12 pitchers. Maybe the emergence of Patrick helped there. He can do what Mears does and more, so they made the tough call. I would have had 13 pitchers. But what do I know? The marginal value of Hall/Mears/Z over Lockridge seems...small and not worth worrying about.

Mariners really bouncing back well. That pitching has been very, very good. Really like both of these teams. Glad one of them will get to a WS. I always find the schedule quirks a little funny. Basically, the ALCS will be two games in before we've even kicked off.

Agree completely. I don't think the org is trying to HIDE Priester, exactly, but...the guy was really great for us all year. It's fine to give him an opener. And it was fine to pull him in Wrigley. He had a rough go in his first playoff experience in that atmosphere. If that's going to wreck your faith in the guy, though, to the point that you're not going to give him some bulk work in the first two games or three games of this series (and I'm not saying that's what's happening, but something about the team's wavering feels weird), that just means you really don't have enough pitching. If we're going to win a 7-game series on this schedule, Priester has to throw probably at least 8-10 innings, and he has to throw them well. Give him the ball at home. Let Quintana start on the road. Lots of playoff teams have rolled a worse 1, 2, 3 than Priester, Peralta, and Quintana/Myers (or whoever) in an LCS. As I type this, I'm also realizing how impressive/unlikely/strange it was to win a 5-game LDS with our second-best starting pitcher throwing 2/3 of an inning. Mis basically became ace-adjacent to make up for it.

Makes sense. Wouldn't surprise me if they go Koenig-Priester tomorrow, but Q could work too.

Lotta good Cub fans in my life. Living in on the IL/IA border, it's mostly them and the Cards, though more Brewer support recently. This was a really good series, with two very tense, close games, and, when you get so many early runs, you get a lot of innings where one fanbase is feeling a lot of anxiety trying to hold the lead. It's crazy how good Game 5 was and how boring it seems in retrospect compared to the one in Seattle the night before. Puts in perspective what a GREAT divisional round this was. The Blue Jays/Yankees series was the only clunker in the bunch, and even that gave us a great Game 3, with an Aaron Judge homer off the pole turning the whole thing around. Obviously, the Brewers advancing has kept me interested and focused on baseball, and it might bias me. But when you think about having three WC series go all three games and the divisional round we just got? It's been a really, really fine October, with compelling storylines, good matchups, and really, really high-quality baseball. Let's keep it going, however it turns out!

The one skill (other than defense and speed) Lockridge brings is an unreal ability to have long ABs. That could be an asset, but only if you're willing to start him, because taking pitches matters way more in the 1st-5th innings. I'm just not sure that adds up to much. OTOH, Collins saw VERY limited use in the NLDS, even with Chourio's leg. Maybe they are concerned enough about his defense to go with Lockridge. Who knows? Such marginal impacts bottom of the roster. I THINK I'd be inclined to go with 13 pitchers. Subtract Gasser and an OF (because Bauers and Mona can play out there too--I'd probably keep Collins over Lockridge because he can switch hit) and add Myers/Henderson and Hall (depending on health). Not going to be too upset regardless.

I mean, doesn't tying the season series technically give us the tiebreaker? Could be a factor next year 😁.

Some good thoughts here. A lot depends on health (Hall and Henderson more than Woodruff) and roster construction (the Mariners went with 13 pitchers, but with Chourio a little wounded, maybe we don't want to, we'll see). I think the Cubs series was always going to come down to which team could slug. This one feels like it's all about starting pitching. If we can hold down the Dodger advantage there, I think we've got a shot. But we've got to turn a lot of these games into bullpen games, and we need our bullpen to be close to as good as it was in this series. Because of that, I think you gotta take shots at having real starters early, especially with the limited off days and how hard the pen worked to take the NLDS. That's why I'm in on Priester tomorrow. I think that kid'll be hungry for redemption, and he's been awesome all year. If you're going to shy away from your second-best pitcher in Game 1 of the NLCS because he got shelled in one inning in his postseason debut, you didn't trust that guy very much coming in, and you probably don't have enough pitching to advance. For all the tension and all-out effort to get outs over these five games, we've got our two best guys lined up to pitch Games 1 and 2 at home in the NLCS, on regular rest. Roll 'em out there, and if a great offense does its great offense thing, you live with it.

One other that stood out to me is just what a cool customer Vaughn is. His reaction on the home run about as ho-hum as it gets for a middle innings, postseason, go-ahead dinger. And then his post game was humble and appreciative and quietly excited and focused. Player of the season. There's some justice in him getting to GW homer while Civale watches from the losing dugout.

What a win! I actually watched 8 full innings. Went for a walk, came back to a victory celebration. Glad I didn't have to watch Abner fall 2-0 behind to Suzuki. Some thoughts: 1) This was a game decided by the players. Each manager had a call or two that was tough. Murph could've PH for Joey, but that's such a fine margin call. No problem with him sticking with him, and it didn't hurt them. CC had Imanaga warming early, I think for a left on left matchup that never materialized, and then he just didn't feel comfortable with the guy in the game. Maybe that mattered to the Turang AB, maybe not. More than anything, just shows how little trust they had in Shota down the stretch. 2) We pitched great. Even Ashby knuckled down and got the K of Tucker after a shaky start. Good call by Murph to just give him 3 hitters. Abner got some nice BABIP luck and wasn't dominant, but he got six fairly low-stress outs in a stress hell environment. Megill starting proved a good call. 3) Some unsung heroes for me are Durbin and Frelick. On base 5 times between them, stole a base, played good to better than good defense, just really putting in the work. Maybe no direct payoff, but those guys contributed. 4) And we hit 3 homers, including one from a lefty. I was wrong about Yelich. But Turang came through. 5) Obviously, we all want more. But, man, is some of the stress off. Same score as 163, and it's right there as an all-time rivalry win. Feels like we validated something, even to people like me who believe a lot of this is random. I am confident in this: we played well enough to win game. They got some lucky breaks (Yeli's liner in the first, William's scalded double-play, etc.), and so did we (Hoerner's eighth inning line-out feels like the biggest play of the game). It's good to play well and get the right bounces. You need it in October. 6) Plenty of time to discuss the Dodgers. But my early vote is you roll out Priester and Freddy and say let's go. Two best guys all year, at home, and they're on full rest. You never know when these things turn around for a franchise on October. I don't know if they've turned completely for us. But I know you can't win big series without winning games like that. We did it! Let's keep playing good baseball.

Alright my final thoughts. On this day in 2011, I was 25 and basically curled up in a ball all day. I'd like to think I've gained more perspective since then. I'm still anxious, though. Even if I have made peace with losing and do genuinely understand the minimal impact this game will have on my life in two weeks, let alone a year. Her's what I feel good about: I saw a woodpecker again today, coming out of a work thing. First time since morning of Game 2. If you count the Cardinal I saw first time I looked out my window before Game 6 in 2011, ornithomancy has never let me down. Plus, the kid's magic 8 ball (non-Ueck variety, unfortunately) predicted a Brewers win with a straightforward "yes". I also think Yelich is going yard today. It's time for a truly huge postseason hit from him. I feel bad about the fact that I think we will have to get (extra) base hits to win. The Cubs are more likely to walk, I think, and we can lose the game that way. For us, it's gotta be hits. Overall, I don't have a good gut feeling, but my guts have crap for brains. Let's play well and get lucky.

Agree completely. And great point on Frelick. He's had some calls go against him and hit some balls hard on the ground. Fine margins for him. Hopefully it turns the other way tomorrow.

The other side of the coin on this game is that no one ever knows when these things turn around. When the Cubs went down 3-1 in 2016 and Chapman had to hang on for a nailbiter save in Game 5, I'm sure plenty of folks thought here we go again. Same when the Red Sox went down 3-0 in 2004. Not saying it'll happen to us. It might never turn around. But baseball life is long, and I feel like, for once, a win would be more exhilarating than a loss would be deflating. At least from where I sit. I think there are a couple of keys for us, aside from putting up some early zeroes. First is getting Hoerner out. That guy's had a great series, and something I haven't understood very well is why we keep pitching him with hard stuff away and soft stuff down when he's clearly trying to go the other way. Bust that guy in, especially if you get to two strikes. Have to make the adjustment there because him getting on base is so big for them. During our ABs, we've so far done a poor job of balancing between patience and aggression. Game 1 we came out hacking. Games 3 and 4 we took a lot of pitches, probably too many. Game 2 we balanced this well, and that's what we need to do. Sure, make good swing choices, but we have to put good swings on pitches in the zone because Cubs pitchers are attacking. I hope we spend the off day on a lot of scouting and data review. Chourio's injury has hurt our aggression on the basepaths. He's been the only one of our speedy guys to get on base regularly, and his running is obviously impacted. I'm not sure there's much we can do about that. The Cubs have good pickoff moves and have neutralized the running game pretty well. But the biggest issue is that Turang and Frelick haven't been able to get on base. If we don't slug, we need to steal. How our lefties hit seems like the key factor in this one.

Murph is going to decide this by looking into his players eyes and seeing who looks ready. That's only half a joke.

My preferred order for starting pitchers: 1) Uribe. I know. People are going to think this is nuts. But the guy's probably got the best stuff, and he's thrown one inning all series. It's so important for us to put up a zero early. Let's see if he can get six outs. Megill can close. Priester can try to close. Mears, Koenig, we've got options. 2) Patrick. He's pitched well. He's comfortable starting. Run him out there. I'm a little worried about his usage, but it's Game 5, and he gives a good chance at a zero. Heck, a 1-run first would be progress. 3) Miz. Imagine the electricity if he's on his game. Whoa. 4) Priester. Give the kid another shot. He'll be at home, eager to redeem himself. 5) Anyone else. Not sure what Murph will do. But this will be a fun game. Let the better team win, and may it be us.

Of course they are humans. Of course their mental and emotional states matter. It just doesn't follow that their emotional state is "uh-oh, we're toast." Not does it follow that the Cubs players all have an unshakeable mental confidence. EVERYONE is going to be a little tight for Game 5. That's the nature of this. Think of all the times in baseball history teams with momentum have lost. It happened to us last year! I totally get the need to think we're massive underdogs because of self-protection. Baseball playoffs are a stress machine unrivaled in American pro sports (possible exception of NHL OT). But to insist that we're headed for inevitable collapse as objective reality? It's either venting or punditry. And people can vent! But that usually doesn't involve firmly holding the idea that their vented emotion represents Absolute Truth. 10-7 is...59 % in a very small sample, uncontrolled for other variables. Flip 17 coins with your left hand, you might get 10 heads and 7 tails. Doesn't mean anything about it will hold moving forward. And the people who have lots of money and technological sophistication invested in setting correct odds don't seem to agree that the Cubs are now favorites at all. In fact, they're (slightly) plus money, even factoring in the pro-Cubs public. But, look, I can be wrong. So can the sportsbooks. If you really believe your sense of momentum represents an objective reality that people like me don't get, you should bet on it! If you lose, hey, you'll be happy because the Brewers won! If you win, well, maybe that takes some sting out of the loss and vindicates your sense of resignation. I am not trying to be a jerk here. But I think wagering into your sense of resignation is way more productive than doom casting. I have done this myself. I do not appreciate the gambling takeover of sport, but it is useful as a form of emotional insurance. We went up 2-0, I placed a small wager on the Cubs at longish odds. We win, totally worth it. We lose, it's enough to buy pizza and make a charitable donation. At least that way, some good comes from the arbitrary pain we choose to inflict on ourselves by emotionally investing in a sport whose outcome we can't control.