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Cool Hand Lucroy

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Everything posted by Cool Hand Lucroy

  1. Cool Hand Lucroy
    I wonder what the confidence intervals are on these projections, but, yeah, I agree with nearly all of this. The odds give us a nice range of expectations. If someone told me we had a 75 percent chance of making the playoffs, I'd think they were overconfident. 25 would seem too low. Just about anything in between about 30 and 60 feels pretty defensible to me, and at that point, who cares, right? Let's play and hopefully win!
  2. Cool Hand Lucroy
    Suter is joining Carlos Gomez on my list of all-time favorite Brewers, albeit for pretty much entirely different reasons. Just an easy guy to root for. I think I like him in this kind of bullpen swing role too!
  3. Cool Hand Lucroy
    Well, the good news about the WC is that NL is second this year, right? So, if we're in that game, Hader would have two guaranteed days off. You figure he'd be able to go 3. Not as good as having Scherzer, but it helps.
  4. Cool Hand Lucroy
    Paddack has been pretty hot lately if I recall. These will be tough games. Get the first one, and go from there!
  5. Cool Hand Lucroy
    It's baseball. I would recommend using Fangraphs' "coin flip" model for postseason odds. As a prior, it assumes that every game is a 50-50 shot. Now, of course that's not true. But for a two-week sample of baseball, I think it's better than using run differential or roster strength. Using that model, we are about 44 percent to make the playoffs, as opposed to 36 percent straight-up. I think that reflects my feeling about this race. There are drawbacks to the Cubs and Cards playing each other so much, especially given that we're 3 back of STL. 8-5 gives the Brewers a good shot, but that's going to be tough. It won't be "choking" if they don't make it, at least not in my view. 2-2 against the Padres would be underwhelming but would keep you afloat.
  6. Cool Hand Lucroy
    But don't the Nats need factoring in too?
  7. Cool Hand Lucroy
    Well, got a bit lucky there. Need to get the bats going. Let's go!
  8. Cool Hand Lucroy
    Pirates take the lead! Long way to go, of course.
  9. Cool Hand Lucroy
    Just cannot get a big hit.
  10. Cool Hand Lucroy
    Phils lose. Nats lose. Brewers in shouting distance of lots of playoff spots. I don't why, and I don't wish them ill, but I think the Nats are going to drop like 10 of their last 16. I think Martinez is bad, and the schedule is brutal.
  11. Cool Hand Lucroy
    Crew just has to hang in until Friday. If we are 1 or 2 back with 10 to go, I feel pretty good. Hope Cincy can get a split at Wrigley and go from there.
  12. Cool Hand Lucroy
    Welp, I was wrong. Save all the offense for tomorrow!
  13. Cool Hand Lucroy
    It does feel like our pitchers have walked a ton of hitters lately. The Marlins just weren't good enough to take advantage.
  14. Cool Hand Lucroy
    Worst case, we are a game back after tonight. Other than the Cubs, most WC teams look to be headed for losses. I still think the offense makes this a game yet, but most of us were pretty resigned to one win at the outset.
  15. Cool Hand Lucroy
    On the bright side, looks like the Nats and Mets are headed for losses.
  16. Cool Hand Lucroy
    Wainwright had a good AB. Weirdly, I am more annoyed by the BB to Fowler. Twoce Houser has been 3-2 on him and not been close with the payoff.
  17. Cool Hand Lucroy
    Long way to go. I think the offense has some runs in it tonight.
  18. Cool Hand Lucroy
    Wind is ripping out to right at Wrigley. Final really might be 12-10.
  19. Cool Hand Lucroy
    Of course, I want the Padres to win, but the good news with the win is that it's real likely you'll gain on someone. Already got one on AZ (though I probably would have rather seen the Mets lose). STL looking pretty strong, as is Chicago, but hopefully we can get a Nats loss and a Phils loss too.
  20. Cool Hand Lucroy
    Starting Caleb Smith in the fantasy baseball playoffs. My pitchers suck. I hope he gets absolutely shelled.
  21. Cool Hand Lucroy
    As if I needed to get more excited for baseball. Goodness, man, keep this up for the next three weeks! Good morning indeed!
  22. Cool Hand Lucroy
    Thought maybe Suter instead of Claudio there?
  23. Cool Hand Lucroy
    Hope the Cards either go 0-10 or 10-0 (I would take 2-8 or 8-2 too!). I think we should be rooting for sweeps in those series either way at this point, though that might change by the time we get to Cubs/Cards.
  24. Cool Hand Lucroy
    I am so bummed for Yelich and hope he's back in time for the early part of next season. The math, though, seems to suggest that this isn't going to make that much of a difference. Accumulating 2 WAR in 18 games would be insane. Even getting 1 is MVP-level. Assuming Grisham gets most of Yeli's ABs, you're looking at 1 fewer win at most. Maybe that takes the team from 12-6 to 11-7 or from 10-8 to 9-9 or what have you, and, of course, that might be enough to eliminate them this year, and it's totally dependent on a bunch of other guys and how they perform, and it absolutely matters for any potential playoff run. But, it's baseball. And every season is sacred. And I've been cool on our chances for a while given the roster even with Yelich, but hell, let's at least try to have fun in the IGT and watching the games because this team has a real shot at two straight years of playoff baseball, and that's amazing, given I started following them in like 1997.
  25. Cool Hand Lucroy
    Nobody believes in us! Even we don't believe in us!
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