Cool Hand Lucroy

Given Tampa's lineup choices, I wonder if maybe Drohan gets a shot at some point to try and delay Aranda's entry. I know he's been low on the depth chart, but they trusted him enough to start and pitch into the 2nd in LA.

Ben Williamson hitting 5th for the Rays is a choice that an outsider like me has a tough time understanding. I imagine they expect to pinch-hit early, so maybe it doesn't matter. On our side, I still think Yelich third isn't great. Just go with Contreras there even if it gives you three lefties in a row. Or hit Turang there. Yelich is better out of the top 4. I hope I'm right on the first one and forced to eat my words on the second.

Totally defensible. It's a tough call. We've been on the Cooper Coaster so far, with enough highs and lows that you can justify everything from "He must play" to "he must sit." It's pretty fascinating, honestly. I would be shocked if Ortiz got a start. But maybe the fast grass changes minds on that. The hard part is, Gasser is a fly ball pitcher, even more than Freddy. Still, with the Rays put it in play, you could certainly justify a superior defensive alignment.

On the lineup front: I'd like Yelich not to hit third. Other than that, I'm happy to stick with our lefty-heavy lineup. Freddy doesn't have crazy platoon splits, but he's definitely more prone to walking LHB over his career. Chourio, Bauers (showing great eye), Contreras, Turang, Yelich, Mitchell, Pratt, Frelick, Hamilton

Pretty nervous for this one. Something about the road games, and I expect Tampa to be able to reset and bring their best game, even if the crowd situation is more pro-Brewers than it's been in other series. On paper, it looks like the Rays have the pitching edge, though by how much, who knows? Emotionally, it could go either way. There are factors that might give the Brewers an edge, but it would surprise no one if Freddy turns in a fantastic start. The thing I do know is that the Rays need Freddy not just to be very good, but they need him to be in low-pressure situations. The higher it gets, the more they have to turn to a bullpen they've used more than they've wanted to. I know there's a lot of talk about the Brewers having relied heavily on Uribe and Ashby especially, but the Rays had to throw everyone (except for Jax, Baker, and Peralta), in two games where they only had to get a total of 48 outs. They also only have 12 pitchers to our 13, so it's not like their bullpen is fresh, and we know they trust it a lot less than we do ours. Ideally, Cash wants to go Freddy to Booser and Baker. That requires at least 6 from Peralta, which is feasible. Again, first inning is big for us. Just keep dragging the starter the way we do. This is a full reset to the series. Forget about the 2-0 lead. I expect us to have the pitching edge in Game 4 (bullpen game) and Game 5 (Mis vs. Martinez, both on shorter rest), so a win tonight really goes a long way, especially since it maybe forces the Rays to throw Ras and Freddy out of the pen even if they do manage to get it back to MKE. I'm alternating between abject terror and calm, quiet confidence depending on the minute. I guess that's World Series gameday for you. Go Crew!

This is a good point, and it's not something I thought of. I STILL think I would disagree with introducing automated swing technology. It just take something that isn't (and has never been) objective and forces it into being so. I like my sports with more nuance than that. It feels a little like shoveling your driveway with dynamite. Sometimes, the instrument is just too blunt. But I recognize that's a personal preference that has held serve in maybe one other instance in sports over the last 25 years. I just feel like check swing tech is going to be challenging PI in the NFL. The rules are unclear, making them clear creates an arbitrary standard, and the confusion and weirdness it generates will have us longing to go back to the old way.

I don't think the check swing was egregiously anything. It looked like a lot of check swings. In real time, I thought no way. On the replay, maybe. I think there's something to Contreras amping it up. Tough to be the ump in that moment, having to choose between Wild Bill and 40,000 rabid Brewers fans who haven't had a check swing call go their way all playoffs practically on the one one hand and a guy who pounds tomahawk steak like it's water on the other. Generally, my take is that it's very, very hard to live with uncertainty. I really don't think we need to be introducing false certainty as a coping mechanism. Nobody knows what constitutes a swing. It's subjective, it probably should be, and you live with the randomness it invites. There are some obvious bad calls that you'd like the umps to get right, and a whole lot more 50-50 ones. I'm very much against the "we have the technology, let's fix it" idea because, well, we don't "have the technology" because we don't know what the definition of a swing is! And "fixing" it implies there's a problem and that the technology solves it. What we'd actually be doing is creating a solution to fit what the technology can do, and I'm not sure that's the same thing as solving a problem. I hope all the talk about this doesn't take away credit from ANOTHER true team win. Literally everyone who played contributed. I have no idea what's coming in Tampa, but if these guys keep playing like this, they'll deserve a ton of credit.

Postseason baseball is a helluva drug. It bathes you fear and terror and then, when it ends well, you feel this slow spread of exhilarated relief. There's a long way to go in this series, but it feels really, really good to win a game where the Rays threw their best punch in the first inning and trotted out their ace pitcher. I don't have many thoughts tonight because my head is fried, but here are some: 1) Aranda has to catch that pop up in the first. That might have been the biggest play of the game. It's criminal that the Rays were only charged with one error. Simpson should've had one on the Yelich play. Aranda should have had one there. 2) We didn't play very clean or crisp, but we had so many baserunners it didn't matter. Still. I'd like to see the break-it-open hit one of these games! For my nerves! On the Rays side, the were kings of stranding guys at third. I think they played too much small ball. They gave us outs twice on sac bunts and ended up stranding those runners. Then, they fail to sacrifice after the leadoff double in the ninth. Neither team played perfect baseball, but I think they did make more mistakes. We only made them pay for a few, but it was exactly enough of a toll. 3) The Frelick AB should be talked about forever. He was awesome tonight. I know Bauers has been the king of legendary ABs, but put Sal's on the Mt. Rushmore of that category. Amazing that we can fill a whole one with what we've done so far in the playoffs. And kudos to Bauers too for taking his walks. 4) Loved leaving Ashby in. Right call, Murphy. Doubt he pitches Game 3, but it's worth it. On the check swing, I think it was borderline. There is no answer on those calls. People have to live with it. It went our way, as it sometimes does. 5) Underrated innings from Romero and May. That trade paid off tonight. They didn't need to do a lot, but what they did was important. Brewers baseball. Ashby is beyond words, so credit to his understudies, including Hall. And to Ashby for handling the long layoff after a lengthy bottom of the 8th. 6) Murphy's biggest error, for me, wasn't even letting Yelich hit in the 4th. Vaughn there makes sense, but then you're vulnerable to the (larger) stable of righties the Rays have later. Plus, Murph's just decided to sick with his guys. I like that generally. Don't mess around too much and strive for every little platoon split. Just roll it out and play. Where I didn't like that tonight was Hamilton staying in at third in the ninth. Ortiz should come in there. We're all lucky Mesa couldn't bunt to Hamilton after the double. Hearts in throats on that hypothetical throw. 7) Seeing 184 pitches is freaking insane. It's crazy. Seymour, I think, pitched to four batters in the 6th and threw over 30 pitches. Incredible. 8) Cash left Kelly in a LONG time. Didn't even go to Baker in a jam in the 8th. He's just decided that guy is only pitching with a lead or in a tie game, it appears. Maybe that's something that's been the case all year? I know you don't want to chase, but that's twice in two days he's stayed with a lower-tier reliever with a one-run deficit rather than let a better guy pitch to one hitter. Maybe the Rays wear down our very used bullpen, but Ashby has done this kind of thing all year, and now all our guys get a day off. 9) Finally, this. *****. Team. What else can you say? I actually texted my wife (I'm with my daughter visiting my parents in the Fox Cities) after the first that we were going to "chase all night and then walk it off in the 9th." She thought I was being overly optimistic. Turns out, it wasn't optimistic enough. We didn't even need the ninth. I guess I had more to say than I thought. What a win. Two games is still an eternity. Let's not get overconfident. But, boy, these guys are doing everything anyone could ask of them, and they only have to keep it up for a little bit longer. Let's see another 180 pitches on Monday (and do damage on 5 or 10 more).

Aranda is going to make an out at some point, right?

Given Henderson's struggles on throwing to first against the Dodgers, I fully expect the Rays to go full bore on trying to steal bases. Contreras' current form might damper that somewhat, but I don't expect it to be the case. The Rays feel like a commit to the bit team. Hoping Logan can stay within himself and remember that old baseball truism: you can't steal first base.

This is such the key point. To play aggressive, for the Rays, meant using Booser for one hitter. Three at most. That's one reliever. For one batter. To give your team its best shot. That they didn't even really consider that tells you something about their strategy (there's a parallel here in that, even in the playoffs, the Rays basically refuse to let their hitters challenge until late in the game--they want to keep the challenges for run prevention). I think it's admirable to operate on principle, like the Rays do. I genuinely respect their willingness to stick to their process. I also think (and this is something the Brewers of the last decade have been GREAT at), choosing when to depart from your principles, when to be flexible and not get locked into a philosophy, is the biggest thing that helps smaller-budget teams win baseball games. I also think the "reliever fatigue" narrative is both real and overrated. It's real in Games 4, 5, and 7. But the off days in the playoffs are helpful, and it really doesn't make sense to go from "These guys haven't pitched in over a week!!" to "These guys are now overworked" in the span of 9 innings. It doesn't happen that quickly. Maybe the Rays feel good about trading a WS win for 20 pitches from Megill, 20 from Ashby, and 0 from their top leverage arms. If so, it's a trade everyone's happy with, because the Brewers are fine with it too. I doubt Tampa makes that trade again at any point this series, but, like certain sacrifice bunts, I'll absolutely welcome it if they do.

For all the talk of Mis, let's also not forget Rasmussen is at 193 innings right now. He threw 150 in 2025, and we know his injury history. He's been great. He's tough. He's shown no signs of being fatigued this postseason. But, if the Rays are going to win, he's probably going to have to push 205 innings, and that's a lot.

I think we might well be calling this the Logan Henderson game when all is said and done. I like his stuff vs. the Rays for some reason. He can pitch to contact and has elite BABIP ability. He wants you to put it in play. The Rays want to put it in play. It sure could backfire, and I know they'll test his fielding. But I think he might give us the kind of postseason ace outing we've been wanting and save an inning or two for the top-tier bullpen. Could I also see the Rays jumping all over him? You bet. But with all the talk about Rasmussen, I think the world is underestimating Logan.

This. Mis is gassed. He's still gaming, still PITCHING, still LEARNING. In the World Series! That ability to adjust and continue adjusting and getting outs without your whiffs is impressive. He was a deserving winning pitcher tonight. I'll take another performance like that if it gets back to him, no question.

The Rays and Brewers are going to win with different approaches. We're committed to winning with bullpen at this point. It's going to be a heavy dose of Ashby, Uribe, and Megill, and yeah. Seeing them a lot might help the Rays. It didn't much help the Dodgers and Padres, but they also didn't get to a Game 5. I think what Cash maybe doesn't quite APPRECIATE (because I know the Rays see it and have prepared for it) is how good Hall and Romero have been. And Senzatela is not a slouch, either. Plus, Woodruff is basically unscoutable. Nobody knows what he's going to do, and that makes him impossible to prep for. The Brewers have quality and depth in the pen, and that's why they're going to rely on it. The Rays only have quality at the top, and even that's a little questionable given Baker's velocity dip. So, they don't really have a choice but to scramble a bit. Like @owbcsaid, I'm reading confidence in Cash's overall approach. Is that the RIGHT approach, though? Whew, I don't know. To treat a World Series game as essentially just another game is worthy of admiration and also a little bit stunning. The 7th inning, if played aggressively, would have likely required one high-leverage reliever (Booser) to get one guy out (Bauers). To avoid that so completely suggests a confidence bordering on deep fear of overexposure on your own side. We'll see how it plays, but the Rays are committed to the bit. Their hitters won't challenge, and their top relievers are not going to pitch without tie/lead unless it's close to close out time.

I don't think the issue with the pitch to Ohtani was its location. You want it down more, but, okay, whatever. The bigger problem is it wasn't precisely located AND it was the third cutter in a row, all basically in that general area. Ohtani mashed it. I still think May has 3 shutout in him at some point this World Series. Let's see.

Martinez pitched about as well as he could have and only went 5. If the Rays pen is pitching 4 innings, you're in okay shape as the opponent. Rasmussen and Peralta are going to have much longer leashes, though. That's the big-picture risk to starting Martinez tonight. Rasmussen is the guy you want to really give runway too. It's a little harder to do that down 1-0. Say you're up 1-0 in the fifth, and he walks the first two guys. He's at 63 pitches. You're in a tough spot... I think it's the Brewers job to make Cash pull that trigger, or at least have to think about it. Tomorrow is all about pressure, pressure, pressure, even more than it always is.

Doh! Fumes, man. Fumes. Yes. I think the best play for the Rays there is Booser for Bauers, Yelich, Contreras, obviously hoping it doesn't get that far. I wonder if Cash was asked about this postgame. Hogg was on it in real time over on BSky.

Double. I get that. I think he had a bad game even not counting that. But I also think he froze ever so slightly, and it cost him.

Wow. It's going to take me a while to get to sleep. I still have the Gameday app open to confirm we won. More than that, I confess to following on Gameday during the Rays innings. It being a pitch or two ahead of the Fox feed helped reduce a little anxiety. Thoughts: 1) All three of our Game 1s were eerily similar. We score 3 runs. We hold the opponent to 1 or 2. We breeze through the middle innings after weathering an up and down Mis start, and then hold on for dear life with the aid of a clutch Megill and/or magic. We also struggled to add on in key spots in all 3. Luckily, it didn't hurt us. 2) I'll be curious to see how the team responds to that. In some ways, Game 1 felt like the one we were most likely to lose. Some of that is the layoff. Some of it is the pressure of being at home in such a huge moment. Some of it is just getting your sea legs in uncharted territory. Honestly? I thought both teams adjusted to that pretty well. That was a pretty well-played ball game, even with some uncharacteristic moments on both sides. 3) Chiefly, for us, those belonged to Mitchell. He had an awful game. I thought the fly ball was really bad. It reminded me of Chourio misplaying one against STL (I think?) in CF his rookie year. It was a tough play because of how hard the ball was hit, but it's got to be made. Cost the Brewers a run. 4) Mis is clearly running a little low in the fuel department. He battled through 5 today, and we needed every out. Special props to Uribe tonight for an awesome 4 outs. That was smooth, and then Ashby did his cold MFer thing. 5) I think it was a mistake to bring in Megill to start the ninth. I would've stuck with Ashby with two lefties due up. I know it would've put him down for tomorrow, but you have Megill if it gets to Caminero. It ended up working out, but I still think it was the wrong call and probably Murph's biggest mistake of the night, though I think hitting Sanchez in that spot didn't make much sense either (just lower downside there). I will credit Murph for getting Ortiz in at third in the 9th. He doesn't do that, we're all sweating a Hamilton throw on a tough little grounder. 6) The biggest blunder of the night was on Cash, though. If I'm a Rays fan, I'm livid that he pitched to Chourio in the 7th. You've got Matz in the game. Pratt is on second. There are two outs. Booser has been great for you. Turang is on deck. Your best option there is to walk Jackson and go left-on-left with Turang, probably with Booser. To not even have him warming is borderline criminal. That run cost you the game. 7) I thought Hamilton getting thrown out was understandable. I like the aggressiveness. That spot in AmFam is the triples spot, and I thought it off the bat. The stumble cost him, and it still took a great defensive effort to get him. It doesn't even compare to what Mesa did the inning before. Getting tossed at third there....dumb. There is no reward for running there. Total brain fart. 8) The check swing was close, but I think he went. Thank goodness it didn't cost us. I thought Pratt was off the bag, and it was the right call. That one annoys me A LOT less than tag plays where the runner slides off by a fraction with the tag still applied before getting right back on. It's a tough play. Pratt's trying to turn it, and just didn't quite drag it low enough. 9) Chourio and Contreras, what can you say? Wild Bill was everywhere tonight. Two outs with his arm. 2 hits. Calling a good game and using challenges perfectly. He looks possessed, and we're going to need it. 10) The Rays seemed weirdly unconcerned at times tonight. I'm not sure if I should be troubled by that (because they're so chill) or comforted (because they're "happy to be here" or whatever). All I know is, they weren't going to pitch Baker or Booser, and they started Martinez instead of Rasmussen. There is no such thing as a non-urgent WS game, but they played it about as non-urgently as you could, especially for a team that just had three days off. Again, that might be the right thing to do! We'll see how it goes tomorrow. 11) They said this on the broadcast, but the Rays did K 9 times tonight. They only walked twice. If that continues, it's a good sign for us. When you're the home team in 2-3-2, you can't drop the first two. Then, you're chasing all series. Getting that win, and one never-been-here-before game under our belts, is incredibly valuable. I suspect the Rays will continue to put together good ABs and clean up some of the base running miscues. Our hitters will need to continue to pressure them and deliver the knockout blow. We've gotten better at that as series have gone on. If we can pull one out tomorrow, that's a serious power position, especially with Peralta pushed to Game 3.

I agree with all of this. I would've gone Harrison. But I think it all comes down to Patrick being unable to start. That limits his usage. Every other guy can do both, so that feels like the tie-breaking variable.

I was surprised Patrick was off but not that Woody was on. I wonder if Patrick being basically unable to start really hampered his case. If Woody can even be an opener, that gives him more flexibility.

Yeah, the big thing that jumped out to me was Simpson third. That seems surprising as an outsider. But hard to question either of these teams with time to prepare. I wonder if Bauers second is just based on seeing pitches. If getting to the Rays pen in a goal, putting your guy most likely to put up a long AB in a first inning spot makes sense.

I think how I feel about tomorrow is encapsulated by the fact that, if you offered me a 1-1 split, I wouldn't take it. I want to see this play out. I want to experience every pitch. I also feel we're better and am at peace with whatever the result. If we lose, so be it. Let's just get out there, play our brand of baseball, and enjoy the game this whole fanbase loves.

I had forgotten that this is the same Nick Martinez who pitched for the Reds in 24 and 25. We've seen a lot of him. He's had mixed results. Mostly, it's either quality start or complete blowup. Career ERA of 4.4 vs. Milwaukee. Wild Bill: 5 for 19 with 2 HR Yeli: 4 for 16 with 1 HR Turang: 4 for 16 with 1 HR Mitchell: 4 for 12 Frelick: 4 for 13 with 1 HR Chourio: 2 for 9 with 1 HR Vaughn: 1 for 8 with 1 HR Ortiz: 1 for 9 Sanchez: 3 for 7 with 1 HR Hamilton: 0 for 3 Bauers: 1 for 5 One thing about the pitchers the Rays will throw at us this series is we'll be familiar with their stuff.