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Cool Hand Lucroy
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Everything posted by Cool Hand Lucroy
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A note re: the Cubs. Ross is having to do a lot of heavy BP management. Assad had been starting. Now he's coming in a high-leverage hold situation. Alzolay is down. Fulmer is down. Nobody in that group is really trustworthy, so it's full mix-and-match mode in Chicago. That's going to be tough to maintain for five more difficult games, plus a playoff series. -
This is just one of those games where Mikolas pitched pretty well, and the Brewers failed in their one big moment. I have nothing to back this up, but it seems to me like the Brewers are really good at creating one or two golden opportunities for a 3-run outburst every game. When they take those opportunities, they usually win. When they don't, it's tough sledding. It's especially tough when the potential big inning happens early. When they fail there, it often seems the offense struggles to create more chances. That'll have to change in the playoffs, which are all about continual pressure.
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It's no fun to lose baseball games, especially when just one win basically makes the whole season a success. But this is definitely a case of good things come to those wait. Patience. We're going to score runs this series. The Braves are going to score runs too. I'd bet a lot of money on those runs being enough one of the next four games. There's also probably a better chance either of these two teams comes back tonight than the Brewers end up losing the next six. And, even if they do lose the next six and lose the division, they'll get to go to Wrigley and make up for it anyway. These are like the epitome of all-reward, no-risk games. At least as far as baseball goes. Nature of the sport.
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I mean...it COULD. But if you assume coin flip per game, with 7 games left, that gives you a 3.5% chance.
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Well, a frustrating first half of this one. Missed opportunities plus some bad luck plus some plain bad baseball. Mostly, I just want to win tonight. I'm not worried big picture. You get in one of these ruts where you just need one big moment to kind of turn everything back around.
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That was an awesome throw.
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You have to throw strikes to this lineup. The walk hurt last inning too. Not a good time to lose command (as if there ever is, I guess).
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Great defensive play on one end and a bad bounce on the other. Gotta be able to put up more than a couple against Mikolas and the Cards pen. I still feel like it's coming tonight.
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I'm probably biased, but Contreras should definitely get MVP votes. I can't name 10 better guys this year. I don't know if I can name 5 who have been more important to their respective teams. Fangraphs has Contreras 9th in WAR (in the NL). 7th among position players. It's Betts, Freeman, Acuna for me, but, after that, you can make an argument that Contreras is right in the thick of that next group. Bonus points for playing a premium defensive position. He's also putting up a 125 OPS+ in a lineup without much prowess. He's not the MVP, but I'll go so far as to say it would be a travesty if he weren't on a whole lot of ballots, especially considering that he very much fits the "most valuable" part of equation when thinking about the Brewers.
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If the Brewers can hit their average attendance numbers over the next 6 (should be easy given the Cubs series always puts $$$ in the org's pockets--I suppose we should thank them for that), they'll exceed 2.5 million on the year. That's off from the over 3 they've managed in the past, but given the massive changes in attendance across all professional leagues, it's still impressive. Milwaukee's a baseball town. That's a good thing. Long may it remain so. (and let's get the people celebrating tonight)
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Well, gonna have to be a clinch at home against a hated rival. Nothing wrong with that, right?
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I know folks are mostly joking about losing the division, but just in case: The Cubs play the Braves next. And the Braves are going to be throwing Elder on Tuesday and will have every reason to at least try to keep guys fresh. Plus, those bats against the Cubs already weak (and now stressed after two close games against the Rockies) bullpen.
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I guess the good news is, the Cubs will be mad the Marlins won.
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Getting Payamps right is a big priority over the next week. Rest and pick-your-spots. Uribe looks great, but he scares me in a postseason series. When his control is off (as it can be when the adrenaline is really going), it's tough. Hate to have an inning spiral. He's be my "I need one out to end an inning" guy.
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Onto tomorrow. Honestly, I'm more concerned about avoiding the Cubs (maybe irrationally so) than anything right now. Let's clinch tomorrow. Or at home against the Cardinals. That would be joyful too.
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Dillard is a case study for how not all baseball broadcasting is created equal. He and Sophia and McCalvy are really good together on the Brewers Unfiltered podcast. Good rapport, some good analysis and interviews. It's cool. But then he gets on TV, and it's just like he's trying way too hard. Rottino is pretty corny, but he seems authentically corny (sort of like how Schroeder is just an authentic old-timey kind of grump). Dillard is practically screaming "like me!" every time he's on camera. Shame too, because he's got a really good voice, I think. Baseball broadcasting is hard. I happen to think the Brewers have a ton of talent in the booth on both the radio and TV side. Levering is probably going to be the guy long-term, and that's a great start. Finding a good color analyst is really hard, though. Always has been on the baseball side. Not everybody can be Steve Stone. Who knows? Maybe Dillard learns to reign it in a little. He's young and relatively new to this still (plus spending loads of time around real pros).
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Yeah. I'd pull Woody after this inning pretty much no matter what. He'll be up near 90 pitches, and you can give you him a few on Thursday if you want to keep him sharp Oct 3 or 4. I'd start Woody Game 1 over Burnes.
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Well, the Reds and Marlins clearly have a schedule advantage over the last six. DBacks are going to be playing against the Astros last series, and it looks like both teams will have something to play for. Cubs obviously will depend on how hard Atlanta is trying and how much Milwaukee wants to avoid the Cubs. Maybe we throw Peralta Friday, but I don't think either Burnes or Woody will participate in that series. Further down, Padres and Giants play each other. Unless somebody sweeps, I'd think both teams are out (and I still think both are chasing too many teams). A more-likely-than-you-think scenario is the DBacks (who now have to play 8 straight) and Cubs both missing out. 3-5 (or 3-4 in the Cubs case) is totally conceivable for both those teams, while the Reds and Marlins go 6-2.
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The Rockies now down 6-3. That's a very bad baseball team right now. Might have to take care of this ourselves if it's gonna happen this weekend.
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Rockies had bases loaded and one out, but couldn't score. 4-3 Cubs. Bottom 8. Be interesting to see who comes in to try to close. Cubs pen is a mess with injuries and struggling pitchers. Would love to clinch today!
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That was a perfect throw by Willy. Nice play by Contreras too.
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Oof. Donaldson. Weird play there. He might be out, but it's sooooo close. Call stands situation, maybe.
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Rockies out to an early 2-run lead.
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Yeah, a weird twist that Cub fans are probably Brewer fans tonight. LLets get this down to 1 and clinch a playoff spot anyway!
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I agree with a lot of this. Playoffs are just weird, and the difference between opponents in a three-game series is pretty marginal. I do think the Cubs are the best team overall. Still, their bullpen is a mess, and with Steele struggling, maybe there's more vulnerability than I thought. I just don't want the emotional stakes associated with the Cubs playing playoff games in Milwaukee. That sounds very unfun. I'd choose the Marlins over the Reds. The Marlins offense scares me slightly less, I don't like intradivision matchups, the top of the Reds pitching can be pretty darn good, etc. It's all marginal preferences. I'm generally very at peace with the randomness of the playoffs, and will absolutely enjoy this division title regardless of what happens in the WC round. That's the goal for me every year. Win the division. Playing the Marlins also removes the possibility that our division title will be undermined by a Central team beating us in the playoffs.
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