KeithStone53151
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Everything posted by KeithStone53151
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Also worth adding, their best 3 hitters all RH. They'll see LH starters sometimes but rarely will they see a LH reliever. The reliever they face will almost always be a teams top 2 RH relievers.
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Is it just me, or is this lineup not THAT good? I feel like Arenado and Goldschmidt will not be as good as last year. Goldschmidt had a career year at age 34 and Arenado had his best season if you remove the Coors factor(career 818 OPS on the road removes Coors factor, 2022 he was much better than that). I'm sure they'll be good, I see both guys falling in the mid 800s OPS range most likely...which is still very good of course. Aside from that, what here is scary? Walker has huge upside but otherwise a lot of low 700s or worse OPS players in 2022.
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This is at least a 10 game suspension right?
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Even if this pick doesn't go straight to the Packers, it's very likely related. The Jets have more draft capital to work with in a trade and for what they want out of the draft for themselves, regardless of whether this specific pick goes to GB or not.
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Why is this in blue? On that subject... How ecstatic are Bears fans that their owner won't have to demolish them this year?
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Not exactly a Packers move, but this is certainly relevant to potential compensation for Rodgers...
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https://profootballtalk.nbcsports.com/2023/03/22/in-dealing-with-the-packers-its-time-for-the-jets-to-act-like-new-yorkers/ And then there's this take.....
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I'll raise my hand as being way wrong at the time. There was a lot of star potential in the players we traded. Unfortunately they all went bust, and nobody really could have expected Yelich to go from what he was to a double MVP
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That seems aggressive, I hope you're right.
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Why not? 60 million to not put your body at risk...
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One additional note, Adams decided last year that he wanted to go to the raiders and that deal seemed to come together pretty quick. Small sample, but I'm inclined to believe if one side is being unreasonable...it's the jets. Their front office isn't exactly a beacon of success.
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The more I read up on this, what a weird situation this is from a leverage standpoint. Packers fans seen to think the Packers have all the leverage because Rodgers announced his intent and the jets have been signing all his buddies. Jets fans think the jets have the leverage because there are no other teams in on Rodgers. Its kinda tough to know. At the moment it seems to me the Packers have more leverage, but if they want 2023 draft comp they need to finalize a deal sooner than later. And of course it gets weird if Rodgers shows up to Packers off season and pre season stuff if this really drags out. I do wonder how far apart the sides really are. It seems pretty stupid if the jets are offering a second and the Packers want a first to not meet in the middle with the Packers getting the first but sending something else back. Who knows if those comp reports are accurate. The best case for both teams is a quick/fair resolution.
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You're completely correct if he's primarily financially motivated AND he's bad and would be bad in any circumstance. If he has desire to be great, it kinda sucks as that's 3 prime years he's not accumulating counting stats. And who knows what impact not playing for at least 2 of the years will have on his development. Side note, football really isn't my sport. I appreciate all the opinions on the Rodgers situation. I was very curious how strong our position is with him and what we might get back in compensation. Sounds like most think we have a pretty strong negotiating position, I hope you all are right. We need to get him out the door immediately, I wanted to trade him last year as he doesn't seem motivated to win. He seems all about Rodgers and kinda in coast mode. No matter the sport, some guys stop caring when they get a big enough contract or generally get enough money. Rodgers has gotten weird in general but I just don't think he's doing the right things to get ready to be a top 5 QB this year.
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Interesting stuff on Rodriguez. One thing off the bat, in not really sure he's throwing a slider based on this data alone, those seem like they could easily be mislabeled cutters thrown a bit slower. 6 different pitches is a lot for any pitchers to actually use in game, much less such a young pitcher. Lance Lynn and Corey kluber are always the guys that come to mind for me as successful MLB pitchers that rely heavily on multiple different types of hard pitches. That cutter looks really well located. Such a young pitcher being able to bust a guy up inside and backdoor the cutter effectively is very impressive. A lot to like for sure, incremental improvements are probably enough to make the show as his arsenal seems good enough already. Significant improvements on one of his off speed pitches, significant bump in velo, and/or becoming a plus command guy could get him into that #2/3 starter profile...in my opinion.
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- carlos f rodriguez
- sal frelick
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I agree completely with this. That said, I don't think the Brewers will extend any of Woodruff, Burnes, or Adames. It seems most think one of Adames/Woodruff will get extended, I just don't. Pure opinion, based on nothing but my opinion. We'll see.
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I might literally puke when I say this, but pending the teams in the 16-20 range...they might be a touch low. They've spent to add some good players, and they've gotten better at making something out of nothing with bullpen arms. You can squint and see a 6 or 7 seed...especially considering the Brewers could start slow, trade good players, and be worse than the Cubs on paper by August. 21 would probably be the right spot if they traded divisional places with the diamondbacks or nationals...but their odds are probably slightly better in the central.
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- adley rutschman
- stephen strasburg
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With the contracts some of these mega stars are getting with less than 1 year service time, I think the days of signing premium talents to contracts like what Albies got are more or less gone. We can certainly try. I mean, Peralta bit against the advice of his agent and that's already a W even if Peralta's arm falls off tomorrow. Based on Peralta/Ashby, I think it's safe to say the Brewers are having these discussions with players where they deem it appropriate/strategic. But there's high risk, and the player needs to be willing to accept the team friendly deal...some guys like Mookie Betts simply are willing to bet on themselves. But man I never thought Hiura would bust like he seemingly has to this point after that rookie year. Imagine if we had extended Hiura and signed him to like 7/70 and owed something like 55 million over the next 4+ years? Its tough building a competitive roster with half the resources of the big guys, we really can't ever miss on big contracts and have significant dead money on the books and still compete. As soon as that happens, we're back in the days of having Suppan/Wolf/Garza/etc eating 10% of the payroll with poor results.
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Not to get too off topic. To those wanting to extend frelick/mitchell/chourio/etc, imagine if we had extended hiura to even a $70-80 million dollar extension before he hit the majors? That would have been very bad. Imagine if Ashby has a Thornburg-esque shoulder problem and is basically toast? It's not like all these deals work out as intended, there's a ton of risk in signing a guy to an extension before he's seen much time at MLB. A ton of reward as well obviously.
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I think the Brewers front office has done an absolutely phenomenal job creating a pretty large window of competitiveness. That said, I think it closes with Burnes/Woodruff and retooling will be needed. It's not likely 32 year old Willy Adames is the guy we want as part of the next competitive window. For me, that's likely the case unless this combination of Peralta/Ashby/Turang/Mitchell/Weimer/Frelick/Chourio are the game changers we hope they are. I would like to see the Brewers gauge an extension for Adames based on how those guys do this year as a whole. If that young core can carry a competitive roster, then we might be able to be competitive right away and those first few years of Adames will be on a competitive roster. If not, there's no reason to shell out the $$ so Adames can get us from 68 to 72 wins. A couple small notes, the Brewers will be a lot of fun over the next few years if the position players pan out...we could be scoring a lot of runs and baserunning could be a lot of fun to watch. One argument in favor of Adames that I haven't seen, he's a big energy guy and that's great for a clubhouse. The jolt he gave the Brewers upon acquisition was huge, his energy was infectious all the way through the clubhouse and we started winning like crazy.
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That specifically can be tied to having Josh Hader for most of his tenure. Teams with the best bullpens/closers tend to win more close games. That has little to do with the manager.
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That's certainly fair, I stand by it in that specific case but that's my opinion...hardly gospel. Not to digress too much, I pop into NSB every so often to read their takes(the best part is how optimistic they are that they'll sign every big free agent to a team friendly deal because everyone loves the cubs...or something) and I noticed you posted in there. I'm guessing you simply are part of that community as I can't imagine someone owning a brewers forum and being a cubs fan.
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Question, how much do we think the AGM or GM is evaluating talent? I would think those positions are more involved in the evaluation system and are using analytics and recommendations to make decisions. It would make sense seeing a correlation in us bringing in better talent over the last several years than we had previously, coupled with the Rays success with talent while Arnold was there. And so far, he's done really well in trades. It still baffles me that a trade in which the Braves get the best players, the A's get the best prospects, yet somehow the Brewers get the best value piece. It's like we somehow inserted ourselves and swindled both teams(really we swindled the A's mostly). It will be interesting to see if he still holds up in big mlb caliber decisions in a few years, right now he could be significantly helped by structure largely set up by Stearns for all we know. Also let's hope Arnold turning his attention to the entire organization fully doesn't impact the pipeline quality we've seen over the last few years.
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I'm not here to argue 55/45 decisions, like using x reliever instead of y reliever in a given inning. My arguments tend to be leaving a guy in too long or pulling a guy too soon as far as pitching. Sometimes those are 55/45, others are much more clear. One example that sticks in my head from last year is leaving Hader in about 3-4 batters too long against the Giants. He let Hader concede 6 runs including 3 home runs in a game we were up 3 at one point. We lost on a grand slam to Yaz, so up until Yaz we still had the lead. Hader had been struggling a bit recently, I'm pretty sure every manager in the game gets him out of there, except CC. I also largely blame CC for Hiura not getting more consistent atbats last year, and especially against RH pitching. It was completely baffling that CC kept using Hiura primarily against LH pitching and he'd pull Hiura and put in Tellez or Vogelbach or whoever against RH pitching. Most of the season, Hiura was one of the best hitters in baseball against RHP. It's wild to me that CC didn't see the trend. The trend, is actually that CC has started managing in an old school way. Having his 7th inning guy, 8th inning guy, etc. The simple RH hitter vs LH pitcher formula wherever possible regardless of splits. In the Hader scenario I can imagine his thought process in the dugout "well it's still a save situation, must leave in closer". He's going backwards if anything.
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I tend to be pretty critical of Counsell. It's quite easy to nitpick his decisions, especially in a monday morning qb sense. I kinda feel like there's some similarity between Counsell and McCarthy. I believe McCarthy did the stuff you don't see really well, but come game day he might literally be the worst coach in the NFL. Counsell isn't THAT bad on gameday, but I sense he does the stuff we don't see pretty well. I get a sense these guys are properly motivated to compete and win. There's a good team aspect to the club. He does a good job managing for longevity of the season, he tends to error on the side of under-using pitchers...especially relievers(he's the anti-Maddon). The biggest problem I have with Counsell's game day decisions is they seemingly have gotten worse, not better, as he's gained experience. I don't think he's a guy that's capable of making the best decisions in the biggest games, now or in the future. So I think the Brewers FO is sitting there in the same situation they were with McCarthy, above average manager but not the guy that's going to get you to the promised land. Do you keep rolling with that manager or try to improve? In the Brewers case, I think the probably will and should continue to roll with CC. We aren't wasting prime #12 years like the Packers were with McCarthy, and teams can certainly win in spite of mediocre management(Ned Yost).
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I took a fair amount of issue with his comments and what he felt like he needed. I'm a big proponent of needing to put in the work. Talent only gets you so far, and as talented as he is...he'll fall behind in a hurry if he's not putting in the work. I believe that's part of what we've seen the last couple years. Every other big leaguer is talking about being in the best shape of their life, and Yelich is talking about getting mental clarity. Previous seasons when our guys have gotten covid and had to quarantine, every other brewer talked about the work they were doing...bullpen sessions...etc. Yelich talked about how he picked up a guitar for the first time. Yelich reeks of a guy who got the contract and is going to show up and punch the clock. I hope I'm wrong. I'm certainly not an expert in the field, maybe mental clarity truly is the answer. We'll have our answer in a few months.
