KeithStone53151

Logan Morrison is not simply having tough luck. If his launch angle thing worked, he'd be hitting more balls out...but he's on pace for maybe 18ish. Balls out of the park can't be defended, so you can't just say tough luck. If Morrison got hot in July and hit over 300 for the month, that absolutely matters. That's how we were able to move Aramis Ramirez a few years ago, he was bad most of the year but showed enough in July to garner interest and carried that momentum through the season. It's a rental...you are getting 2 months of a guy. You don't want to trade for what might be a significant cold streak. You don't trade for a guy based on an extensive track record and say "well eventually he'll figure it out". Eventually may never happen, and it definitely might not happen over a 2 month span. Not everyone is mediocre at age 36, gets traded, and immediately turns into Cy young like Verlander did last year. As for Thames 2 years of control. It does add a bit of value, but not like it would if you were trading for a stud. If I'm the Astros, I'm not trading for Morrison or Duda because I simply don't view them as upgrades. I'm looking at Thames or Bour or another LH option that's playing well. If it came down to Duda or Morrison, I'd rather give up nothign and roll with the equivalent options that I have.

Come on man, Duda and Morrison...really? 256/317/398 with 4 bombs for Duda(who is injured anyway). 197/309/348 with 6 bombs for Morrison. Justin Bour is doing ok 245/371/439 and may be a decent option, but he's also going to be fairly expensive in prospects. Meanwhile, Thames is hitting 250/351/625 on the season. If he returned from injury and picked up where he left off...he's far and away more valuable than Duda or Morrison and arguably more valuable than Bour. What most of us are saying from a logic standpoint, is both teams would be trading from a position of strength and depth for a position of need. It's altogether possible that the Astros trade a SP and the Brewers trade a 1b but not with each other and for different returns. As for general 1b potentially available. The cream of the crop is Abreu, next tier includes Thames, Aguilar, Bour, then there's the tier of mostly useless guys like Duda, Morrison, Cron, Ramirez, etc. I don't think Abreu moves, the White Sox have generally made clear that they won't make a move unless it's a drastic overpay. The other bonus to trading with the Brewers over the Marlins/White Sox is you can include MLB players if it fits our needs. Like in Houston's case having an extra starter, or maybe the Indians including Kipnis or a backup catcher. The White Sox and Marlins likely have little to no desire to bring back mlb players unless they are very young. Morrison and Duda are coming off seasons nearly as good or better than Thames had last year. Thames is also coming off an injury that many say can linger for a long time - that's a risk for a buyer. Duda was doing great against righties this year and should be back from his injury soon. Cron is having a decent season, though he does have the problem of being a RH hitter so less platoon advantage. You really think it's worth the small upgrade of Thames over one of those guys to give up a potential ace pitcher if he gets it right AND the comp pick you'd be handing away? Gurriel probably also is not this bad, though maybe his injury is a true concern. Would you give up Albers for Jed Lowrie or would you rather just get Starlin Castro for free if we pay half of his salary? This is not a perfect analogy but the best that I can come up with. You also knocked Duda for being hurt while...Thames is also hurt. And your stats for Thames is 22 games where he happened to be hitting well. It's very possible he'd have had a cold May and be right along the .800-.850 mark. I think you'd probably agree that Thames is probably somewhere around an .850 OPS hitter when platooned. I don't think teams trade for players based on what has happened in the first 60 games of a season. While I do think one can make assumptions where the careers of Thames, Duda, and Morrison are going, there is not nearly as much of a difference as your Brewer-tinted/short season sample googles are showing you. Maybe this is the cliff and Morrison has fallen off of it at age 30 (where he supposedly refined his swing) or Duda has fallen off at age 32...but it's nearly as likely that Thames has after his injury in that case. I did say that Thames would have more value if he came back and continued hitting as he has, that's fairly critical considering his age. Duda and Morrison are rentals though. Nobody gives a hoot what they did last season, it's all about what they've been doing and project to do the rest of the season...which right now they'd be a massive liability both offensively and defensively. Morrison has had exactly one good season in his entire career, so even if you are hoping for a regression to career norms...maybe he boosts up to a 700 ops down the stretch, big deal. Duda has been relatively solid his whole career but is at age 32 and has dropped off a bit, maybe he picks back up to an upper 700s ops guy...big if. There's also more reason to believe that Thames will age better than those 2 going forward with the added team control, given his physique and general level of fitness. Those other 2 look more like Pujols than Thames. The rental aspect of my comment should stand out above all else. That's part of why I don't want to trade for Keuchel. I think he's going to age terribly and be a horrible signing for whoever inks him to a big deal this offseason, but I'd still be willing to trade for him if he was pitching well to a 2 or 3 ERA. But his 4+ era is a very ugly 4 with a lot of HR allowed for a groundball pitcher. Factor that with his stuff, I'm just not interested. For rentals, it's all about what they are doing right now. Their prior history is far and away a 2nd tier consideration, especially for older players that very well may have hit that wall and are basically finished.

Come on man, Duda and Morrison...really? 256/317/398 with 4 bombs for Duda(who is injured anyway). 197/309/348 with 6 bombs for Morrison. Justin Bour is doing ok 245/371/439 and may be a decent option, but he's also going to be fairly expensive in prospects. Meanwhile, Thames is hitting 250/351/625 on the season. If he returned from injury and picked up where he left off...he's far and away more valuable than Duda or Morrison and arguably more valuable than Bour. What most of us are saying from a logic standpoint, is both teams would be trading from a position of strength and depth for a position of need. It's altogether possible that the Astros trade a SP and the Brewers trade a 1b but not with each other and for different returns. As for general 1b potentially available. The cream of the crop is Abreu, next tier includes Thames, Aguilar, Bour, then there's the tier of mostly useless guys like Duda, Morrison, Cron, Ramirez, etc. I don't think Abreu moves, the White Sox have generally made clear that they won't make a move unless it's a drastic overpay. The other bonus to trading with the Brewers over the Marlins/White Sox is you can include MLB players if it fits our needs. Like in Houston's case having an extra starter, or maybe the Indians including Kipnis or a backup catcher. The White Sox and Marlins likely have little to no desire to bring back mlb players unless they are very young.

I'm excited for Thames to come back, but I hope his rehab in AAA isn't rushed. I don't want to see him flail for a week while re-figuring things out.

I agree with general consensus that Miller is not an upgrade at 2b over Villar. I'll also add in Miller's career PH slash line...as that's likely where a majority of his at bats would come. 182/234/250/484. I'm not interested in a backup that specifically struggles as a PH.

I'm guessing they probably wouldn't either, but the difference in value isn't nearly as significant as you're making it out to be. Rentals by nature lack significant value, and Kuechel is having somewhat of a hot and cold season. Starting pitching is an area of great depth for them, 1B is a black hole and Thames would be a major offensive upgrade there and come with 2 additional years of control at a cheap cost. So yes, there's absolutely logic, I'm not saying they would do it but I do see the logic. I'd generally agree with this, plus they specifically could use a LH bat considering how many RH players they have. Correa, Altuve, Bregman, Springer...all their best players hit RH. I also see a need for SP for the Brewers, I just don't have any interest in Keuchel. If give them choice between him and Suter for one start, ignoring all other factors...I probably pick Keuchel but it's closer than you think. I don't believe in that guy.

Keep in mind Keuchel is a rental. We'd have the luxury of paying him $4-5 million for 2-3 months of starts, and have to give up Thames to do it. I don't think I want to do this on the Brewers side, and only because I don't think Keuchel is a good pitcher anymore. I've never really thought he was and don't know how he's managed to be so successful to this point. He's had a few rough starts in a row as well. I feel like we can find more value than that for Thames...who we control for 3 more years at a very reasonable price. The 3rd year is an option, so if things go south we can cut him if needed.

I thought I saw he made 2 errors a couple days ago. I also am on board with him sticking at AA, though I could easily be talked into a September callup exclusively for PH appearances and a taste of(hopefully) a playoff run.

Syndergaard is definitely talented enough to warrant including Hader in the trade, especially given the contract. There are very very few guys that you even put Hader in the conversation for, but Syndergaard is one. I think if I gave up Hader, I would not give up Hiura. I don't think Syndergaard is going anywhere to be honest, not for a couple more years at least.

Is there any chance they are going excessively under slot to try and sign the Rocker/Wilcox's of the draft? Otherwise, yeah seems weird. But then again, according to MLB their scouting was so good from 2011-2015 with their first round picks(all top 10) based on the results...we really shouldn't question their scouting. These guys will all become stars.

Ashby feels like a future bullpen arm, but in the 4th round if he becomes Josh Hader lite...sign me up.

I can hear an announcer now... "Sharts out of the 2 hole..."

I get that under Melvin's tenure we've tried extensively to target pitchers early, the ballgame changes when the GM changes. 3 years and 9 picks before round 3...with 1 pitcher and 8 position players taken. That trend makes it look fairly intentional that they are targeting hitters early, or the way they value players leads to hitters being taken early.

I will admit that I'm happy to hear that many of you like the value in the picks. A majority of you know far and away more about these players and talent development than I do. Of course I'm hopeful the picks pan out as intended, the lack of pitching is simply frustrating.

I believe you aren't serious about developing pitching if you aren't willing to try and get the best talents in your system for further development. Of the pitchers you listed, only Lemons was drafted on Stearns watch...and he is the only pitcher taken before round 3 in the last 3 years. So 8 position players and 1 pitcher, they also aren't involved with the most highly rated pitchers in the international market. I do like and appreciate that we try and acquire pitching by trade from time to time, but teams with GM's not named Dombrowski or Epstein also aren't going to give up 20 year old Madison Bumgarner or 20 year old Stephen Strasburg. The only way to get those pitchers is to draft/develop them yourself. We definitely are fairly active in the 4-10 range on pitcher, or at least we have been the last 2 years. Going that route greatly diminishes our chances of getting that home run pitcher. It still exists, but it's an odds/numbers game.

Actually, trading mediocre hitting and free agent-to be relievers for 2 top pieces in a rotation sounds like a great strategy. Davies + Anderson = top rotation pieces? I like both of those pitchers, but neither are much more than back of the rotation arms. Last year anderson was a very good #3 starter but he's struggling quite a bit this year and looks much more like a back end arm. How many teams do you see rolling out arms like Anderson and Davies as the #1 and #2 in the playoffs and winning? I've tried staying optimistic on our draft picks for years, but come on man...you have to at least try to develop your own pitching. And you can't rely on getting lucky and having a Corbin Burnes fall into your lap in the 4th round every year. Even if I try to keep an open mind on the picks, I generally just don't like them. This shortstop, I'm not convinced he's going to hit. At least with Ray and Hiura, theoretically they'd mash minor league pitching enough to tempt a team to trade for them for value in AA or AAA...most of Turang's value is going to be wrapped up in his defense and I doubt we see that big statistical season in high A or AA that gets him rated highly on prospect lists. Also light hitting shortstops are a dime a dozen. Joe Gray feels like Keon Broxton is his realistic ceiling. And Bello has tweener written all over him. Not a good enough defender for CF, can't hit enough or for enough power to play a corner.

Again, you can always trade for pitching. I doubt Brewers said coming into these drafts that they will not draft pitching. Just way the board works out. You take who you feel is going to be the best mlb player regardless of position.... this isn’t NFL where you draft based on needs. All these kids are 3-6 years away. If that upsets you that their board hasn’t worked out to your pitching liking really 2 options.... become brewer scout & make your case in war room or kick your feet in the sand. Plan & simple. You play your board you spent every day for a year working on. If you have more confidence in signing & that player being a better mlb player, why would you take someone you are less confident in because we need SPs now? Except you can't. #2 or better starters aren't readily available every deadline. Sonny Gray and verlander were the best 2 last deadline, and at the time of trade verlander looked fairly finished...era around 4 and down velocity. I doubt any of the hamels, archer, stroman group will perform as well as those guys. True difference makers like a Chris sale are obscenely expensive and rare. And I don't see teams lining up to trade young up and coming star pitchers anymore.

Disagree strongly... Davies was a 1 for 1 trade for K-Rod.... Anderson was more of the throw in, Diaz was centerpiece. Not sure how you think having loaded system of players at a priemium position could not be used to get an Ace simply because Stearns hasn’t yet? You load system up, get logjam, and trade to improve MLB team. If it is SP & Stearns doesn’t have to sell soul to finish deal... he will do it. Not sure why you think because we draft a pitcher in 2nd or 3rd round, they will save our SP situation. Yo, Nelson, Odorizzi, and Jungmann very briefly are only ones to help at all in past decade & Odorizzi wasn’t for us. Burns was 4th round pick. Suter, Fiers, and others much later. Those are not stellar odds. Ponce, hasn’t been good in AA either. Medorois.... who knows what we have. Jeffress kind of can’t pitch for any other team. So basically we shouldn't even try to develop our own pitchers and stick to one avenue for acquiring talented pitchers, and that is hope the right pitcher/situation falls in our lap and another team doesn't outbid us? This season specifically, we'll have a very tough time getting substantial deadline help and holding hiura. It's not like with this draft strategy we'll eventually have 5 hiuras and be able to comfortably trade 1 while keeping 4. Continually refusing to take pitchers early significantly reduces our chances of developing a talented one. This is clearly a strategy thing seeing as though it's happened the last 3 years, and it's beyond frustrating. This is like an nfl team refusing to take a qb early in the draft ever, but instead hoping to get tom Brady in a late round. That reality is they end up with a perpetual Trent dilfer situation and 6-9 wins each season. This strategy will lead to rotations like the one we have currently.

This draft gets more and more frustrating by the pick. Are we expecting to contend by trading for the Zach Davies and chase Anderson's of the world? That is not a blue print for success. And to whoever mentioned we are following the cubs blue print, their pitching situation is almost exclusively free agent spending. They also drafted in the top 10 for 5 straight years and got a generational talent at number 2 overall.

Why do the brewers never draft pitching early? I do not get it...

Does anyone know why these guys are falling did far? The run on position players is very interesting.

I find it generally interesting how little consensus there is in the top talents this year. No Harper, no Correa, no Strasburg...no unanimous top pick. I feel like there are at least 20 guys that people think could all go top 10. I really hope the Brewers go with some sort of arm.

Hey, I was pretty close. Switch Perez and Pina... I'm a bit surprised they went with Braun at 1b and Aguilar DH. Maybe they'll switch it tomorrow and have Braun DH.

Cain, Yelich, Braun, Aguilar, Shaw, Santana, Pina, Perez, Arcia. I wouldn't pick Perez at 2b, I just expect CC to be dumb. It also might go Yelich, Aguilar, Shaw, Braun 2-5...but with a lefty I think it makes sense to space out Yelich and Shaw a bit...and to let Braun hit 3rd against a lefty with Aguilar in the cleanup spot. I'm sure Braun will be back to 5th against a RHP.

Oh...OK. Funny I saw that Cardinals joke site had a bunch of Cards fans saying how they wouldn't trade Yadi for Trout. And they were serious. He's not a winner, etc. Or maybe baseball is a team sport and the Angels have yet to put a playoff caliber team around him. The Angels current team without Trout is probably a 72 win team. He's worth way more than 7-8 wins for that team.