KeithStone53151
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Everything posted by KeithStone53151
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I assume 9/215 would mean either starting this year or next year. That sounds generally better than 7/200+
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When is the right time to trade Yellich?
KeithStone53151 replied to benji's topic in Milwaukee Brewers Talk
Might as well lock this thread and throw away the key... -
One thing is definitive after this, all talk of Mark A being cheap should stop immediately.
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I can't decide if I like it or not...I'm way too excited to think clearly right now.
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750 is not his career norm, considering he topped that once in the last 7 years. He's much closer to a 700-725 ops guy as a poor defending 1b. Most good teams are pretty set at 1b, flipping a very mediocre 1b doesn't seem likely. Unless he hits like 2017 and not like every year from 2013-2019 besides 2017...there will be better options for the few contending teams that would want 1b help. Certainly possible a team may want him as a PH option, but how much will a team give up for a guy to only PH?
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I'd bet you could put 20 pound weights on Thames ankles and he'd still be faster than LoMo.
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I hope we don't get this thread overly off track, but bullpen locks include Hader, Claudio, Suter, Phelps, and Knebel when healthy. Likely arms include Black. From there we have a pile of options including Peralta(a lock if not in the rotation), Burnes, Wahl, D Williams, Faria, and a pile of arms I'm much less familiar with. The last couple spots are generally best rotated out for fresh arms. Also you'd think Drew Rasmussen has a strong chance of forcing his way up very quickly in late April or early May. We should be fine in the bullpen, especially when Knebel comes back and Rasmussen forces his way up.
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I too am surprised by his confidence. He says he's an all star player when healthy, yet he's posted over 750 ops as a poor defensive 1b once over the last 7 seasons and has had WAR greater than 1 only once ever. Was he injured his whole career except 2017? Hard to believe this guy is anything but a fringe mlb player hoping to get hot at the right time and hang onto a roster for one more season.
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No, the max pitchers is 13. You are not required to carry 13, you simply can't carry more than 13.
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https://www.mlb.com/news/brewers-pitchers-benefiting-from-advanced-technology This is an interesting article. One note, Hader is apparently working on his changeup. It seems unfair for him to be able to have a good changeup...so hopefully that happens.
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I haven't seen anything on him, his primary path to making the roster is probably taking Gamel's spot. Morrison has played a handful of corner outfield innings. He's a massive liability out there though, so it's not what you want. Morrison would have to really force our hand with his hitting to show he can provide more value in PH appearances than Gamel can with combined PH/PR/defensive replacement situations. With Holt in the mix, it's certainly possible that Morrison would take Gamel's spot as Holt can do most of what Gamel can do...though that still seems unlikely. My guess is AAA insurance or he has an opt out clause and signs somewhere else right away once available.
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I'm not going to get overly concerned about "thumb discomfort". More often than not, that's probably just a blister or something super minor. Can't imagine that sets him back too much if at all.
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I also don't know that basing rotation spots on Spring Training performance is the best decision making either. We are shown every season how unreliable Spring Training results are in showcasing what will happen during the season. I have a bit more confidence in Stearns/CC that they aren't simply going to look at spring ERA or anything like that and make a decision. They should be able to analyze which pitchers look the best based on a wide range of factors. FWIW, you cite Burnes/Peralta but Miley also looked incredible in spring the year we had him and would have made the rotation right away had he not gotten hurt based on his spring...and that was off a non-roster invitation to spring. And Miley was arguably our best starter in 2018 when healthy. Point being, what happens in spring training definitely matters and should factor into roster decisions to at least some degree.
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Well we shouldn't waive Anderson, but a 1/5 deal should not lock a guy into a rotation spot if he's not one of the best 5. If the competition between Anderson and say Lauer is close...even if Lauer is slightly better I would go with Anderson to maintain the flexibility. If Lauer is lightyears ahead of Anderson, well Mr. Anderson can pitch out of the bullpen as 6th starter/swingman. Not the best use of 5 million, but to give a guy a rotation spot when he's not the best option to avoid "wasting" 5 million is bad management. That 5 million is a sunk cost at this point and shouldn't factor into decision making.
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Brewers sign Arcia- 1 Year $2.2 Million
KeithStone53151 replied to markedman5's topic in Milwaukee Brewers Talk
An improved walk rate shows likely improved eye at the plate and/or improved patience, which can lead to improved production. Much easier to hit good pitches than junk in the dirt. Arcia reduced his chase% from 34% prior 3 seasons to 30% in 2019. Chase contact% increased from 54% to 62%, tells you he's probably swinging at less impossible pitches and more pitches close to the zone that he can at least foul off. Also his whiff% is down from 29% to 24.5% from 2018 to 2019. Feel free to take a look at his statcast data for more info. Based on those advanced metrics, I'm surprised his production wasn't closer to 2017 than it was...most metrics were similar or better in 2019 than 2017. -
It was a stress fracture which happened while rehabbing from another injury. Sounds like it's an injury that's most common among athletes and can happen from increasing weights during workouts, so doesn't sound like he was out flipping dune buggies or something. Fair enough. Thanks for the info. My first thought was him doing something stupid like that, or surfing, or snowboarding...something with unnecessary risk.
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Misc. Offseason Brewers Prospect Rankings
KeithStone53151 replied to Jim Goulart's topic in Brewers Minor League Talk
Yeah I saw this too and agree. He seems like a pretty sharp guy, that type that's able to get the most out of his stuff. A lefty that can mix in 4 pitches and get the best out of them can be a very solid mid rotation guy even if he's only topping out in the 92-94 range. If he mixes four, I think he's beyond mid-rotation and could top out as a TOR starter. Developments this season could be interesting. Right now he's #9 on my ballot. At this point, I see Max Lazar as a potential TOR arm, with File a #2 starter. Small could go right into that same level. Noted above, Small has 3 pretty good offerings. None of his offerings have much plus potential except maybe the changeup. The type of comp you're looking at is Marco Gonzalez. Small might throw a bit harder, but I don't think his changeup will be as good. Regardless, there's no arguing that Gonzalez is TOR. He would fit in great as the 3rd or 4th starter on a contender or 2nd starter on a second division team, but not TOR. I need to learn more about what Lazar throws, but I'm not going to get excited about a guy that throws upper 80s and is getting 20-22 year olds out in A ball. At the lower levels, stuff matters to me much more than results. If he's posting the eye popping k/9 and bb/9 numbers in AA, I'll start believing in him a bit more. Until then, or until I hear that he throws a knuckleball or at least one true plus secondary offering...he's not top 30 for me, not even close. -
Our pitchers will certainly get tested today...
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Brewers sign Arcia- 1 Year $2.2 Million
KeithStone53151 replied to markedman5's topic in Milwaukee Brewers Talk
I like the notes on his swing above, but let's not get too carried away by his spring. Many pitches are throwing a very vanilla arsenal at this point. A lot of guys throw almost all fastballs to nail down their location before mixing in more offspeed later. It's always been the offspeed that hurt Arcia the most...so it's certainly possible he's had success off only fastballs and isn't yet getting fooled by offspeed. Certainly better that he's raking than he's not, let's hope the trend continues. -
Dodgers sign Jimmy Nelson
KeithStone53151 replied to A Swing and A Drive's topic in Milwaukee Brewers Talk
That's really a shame. Feel for the guy. He's always been one of my favorites, I tend to be drawn to guys that put in the work...and nobody works harder than Jimmy. -
What the hank was this guy doing that he broke a rib? That gives me the impression that he's not taking baseball seriously enough.
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Misc. Offseason Brewers Prospect Rankings
KeithStone53151 replied to Jim Goulart's topic in Brewers Minor League Talk
Yeah I saw this too and agree. He seems like a pretty sharp guy, that type that's able to get the most out of his stuff. A lefty that can mix in 4 pitches and get the best out of them can be a very solid mid rotation guy even if he's only topping out in the 92-94 range. -
https://www.nbcsports.com/philadelphia/phillies/zach-eflin-mlb-new-baseballs-grip Has anyone else seen anything on the ball for this year? This article and commentary seems to indicate a less juiced ball for 2020.
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This will certainly go nowhere, but again...doesn't make it any less hilarious. https://www.newser.com/story/287390/fantasy-baseball-players-sue-mlb-over-astros-cheating.html
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Nope, I'm not buying a guy who's sitting upper 80s can get hitters out at the higher levels. Hopefully he can, but I value stuff/tools more highly than results when I make these lists. I'll also admit I haven't been as closely monitoring our minor leaguers the last year or two.