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CheeseheadInQC

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Everything posted by CheeseheadInQC

  1. CheeseheadInQC
    You can't accuse the Brewers of shying away from high schoolers. Last year they signed more than 8 percent of the total high schoolers signed in the draft. This year they so far have taken more than 9 percent of the high schoolers taken so far. Also, what do you figure, two on the over-under number of hitters picked (or at least picked and signed) by Milwaukee tomorrow?
  2. CheeseheadInQC
    I jokingly predicted that the Brewers wouldn’t sign 8 high schoolers again this year. I am not all that confident in this prediction anymore.
  3. CheeseheadInQC
    Senior in the third? Interesting.
  4. CheeseheadInQC
    Outside of if you want to rank the older triple-A guys high, I think he slots comfortably between 3 and 5 among Brewers outfield prospects depending on how aggressively you want to rank the pop-up DSL guys. Unless I am forgetting someone, Rodriguez and Lara are really the only top outfield prospects stateside right now.
  5. CheeseheadInQC
    30 high schoolers have been picked so far. Between recent precedent and the generally weak reviews for this prep class, I would wager 50 or so get drafted and sign for the remainder of the draft.
  6. CheeseheadInQC
    He might not. There was an article where agents were suggesting certain prospects don’t take one because it limited their ability to negotiate below slot deals. The article seemed geared toward senior signs, but I could see some prep players in Payne’s range wanting similar flexibility.
  7. CheeseheadInQC
    The kind of flattened bonus pool strategy is really fitting given the greatest strength and greatest weakness of the Brewers system right now is there isn’t a ton of difference between #4 and #30.
  8. CheeseheadInQC
    This still feels a bit light (although I'm kind of a college first base skeptic). Now if they are still floating Whitney, that would put it over the top.
  9. CheeseheadInQC
    There are arguments for doing it both ways. The counterpoint is, if you are confident that you can float player X, then you have your choice of players who would sign for the amount you want to pay the other slot. This can come in handy if you think that one of those players is severely undervalued because then you don't risk them getting taken first. Like last year, if you take Bitonti and Pratt before Boeve, you don't get Boeve because he would have been gone by that point in the draft. There is also a bonus pool incentive to floating a player to Day 3. Last year the Brewers signed Craig Yoho in the 8th round for $10,000 and Bishop Letson in the 11th round to $482,600. Because $150,000 gets subtracted off Letson's total per bonus pool rules for rounds 11-20, it cost the Brewers $140,000 less against the bonus pool than if they had flipped the two rounds.
  10. CheeseheadInQC
    Well, this has been a weird draft. Hopefully they are floating a couple of prep pitchers.
  11. CheeseheadInQC
    I don’t know if it was off the board, but I can remember a fair amount of complaints about the Jimmy Nelson pick, albeit for the opposite reason (perceived lack of upside).
  12. CheeseheadInQC
    So, really fast version of Hendry Mendez?
  13. CheeseheadInQC
    Wow!
  14. CheeseheadInQC
    Could Yesavage be the one who drops?
  15. CheeseheadInQC
    Because of course the Angels bypass the top two prep hitters.
  16. CheeseheadInQC
    I’m a sucker for pitching, so I can understand it.
  17. CheeseheadInQC
    Easy Brewers draft prediction: They won’t sign 8 high schoolers again. Tougher one: I am going to guess the college bat followed by prep arm combo from last year repeats with Benge and Hill.
  18. CheeseheadInQC
    Maybe, but I could almost see them going college-high school-high school- high school if they can balance the pool to get a few prep pitchers they like.
  19. CheeseheadInQC
    So, that’s quite a first rehab outing for Williams, huh. Three hitters, three strikeouts.
  20. CheeseheadInQC
    Different timetable, but Luke Sinnard is one name I have seen that fits.
  21. CheeseheadInQC
    I once considered jokingly referring to Miller's statistical profile this season as Luke Adams - power + catching gear. There are guys who rarely swing and miss because they can hit almost any pitch they swing at and guys who rarely swing and miss because they only swing at pitches they can hit. Just going off of the numbers, it seems likely that Miller joins Adams in the second category. Does the eye test bear that out?
  22. CheeseheadInQC
    It's nice to see Johnson and Prado put their early season struggles aside down the stretch. That is two solid outings in a row for Johnson as well.
  23. CheeseheadInQC
    He’s the fifth best qualifying offensive catcher in double-A by wRC+. Does the author of this article overrate him? Definitely. Does he suck? No.
  24. CheeseheadInQC
    Nice write-up. One nit-pick: Should Burnitz count since he was acquired later after not signing with the Brewers in 1987?
  25. CheeseheadInQC
    There are probably a lot of teams that are loving their draft right now. It was a great draft. It seems like there are two areas in which the Brewers stood out: Pick distribution and late round college pitching. I looked at three of the major quadrants, sort of, I stopped after round 4 for college hitters (I didn't do college pitchers because there were too many to dig all the way back to the rounds where the Brewers selected most of theirs). 1. College hitters: The success rate so far for guys in this category taken before pick 60 is really good. So while Wilken and Boeve each has outperformed his draft slot a bit, neither would be considered a real outlier. Good picks, and the Brewers avoided the few guys who look like misses so far, but nothing really out of the ordinary. Wilken, for example, would probably rank 10th right now offensively among college hitters picked in the first four rounds. 2. Prep hitters: Half of the prep hitters who signed from the 2023 draft class have been at least league average hitters in low-A. Yep, I was shocked by it as well. And that isn't even mentioning the three guys, including two Brewers prospects, who have posted 140+ wRC+ in the Complex League. The success rate so far for this group is absurd. 3. Prep pitchers: The first 10 high school pitchers selected are either holding their own at low-A (or high-A in the case of the Marlins' duo) or dominating in the Complex League. After that, the results get to be more of a coin flip, but there are enough success stories where Letson or a pre-injury Hayden Robinson aren't really outliers either. So where did the Brewers stand out? 1. Like I said, I did not do a deep dive into college pitching, but I can't believe that getting what the Brewers have from money-saving senior signs Yoho and Kuehner and 12th-rounder Wichrowski was normal (to say nothing of their amazing undrafted free agent). If their first two college pitchers from the draft can make strong showings when healthy, especially if Birchard lives up to the preseason hype, this group becomes even more valuable. 2. Pick distribution. That amazing prep class? Fewer than 100 high school draft picks signed, meaning that on average teams drafted and signed three high schoolers apiece. The Brewers signed eight. The Brewers only took two college bats, but both picks were made before the success rate dropped considerably.
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