CheeseheadInQC

Someone I know said he looked more like Danny McBride than Danny McBride.

With all of the hype that the current young crop of Brewers outfielders got as they moved through the Milwaukee system, it is easy to look at the production that the Brewers have gotten from their outfielders this season and be, well, a bit underwhelmed. Joey Wiemer hasn't hit. Garrett Mitchell has been hurt. Sal Frelick is struggling to get his OPS above .700. And as for Jackson Chourio, well, I guess at least he's been better than fellow hyped rookies Jackson Holliday and Colt Keith. I've even seen some suggestions that the Brewers try to trade for a bat to fortify their outfield. The problem with that? There's going to be a long line. A very long line, and from the National League alone, of teams more desperate than the Brewers. How can that be? How dire is the National League outfield situation? Well, for all of what was said above, the Brewers still have the league's second best outfield. The State of the Outfield in the National League So just how bad is the National League outfield situation? Here are your current top 6 in Fangraphs WAR, otherwise known as your theoretical All-Star starters and reserves. Two converted infielders on the same team, one of whom is probably only playing on the grass because his team went through a couple of offseasons in which they tried to sign every infielder on the planet. A player who missed much of May with an injury. A power hitter whose numbers had been declining as he entered his 30s. A player who even his supporters label as a great fourth outfielder. And finally, a formerly hyped prospect who has only played about half a season after starting the year in the minors because his rookie year did not go well. The best outfielder in the National League East is still by general consensus not playing up to his contract. All that adds up to only three National League teams averaging 1 fWAR per outfield position thus far. You've got the Padres, who have the best outfield in the National League thanks to the aforementioned converted infielders Fernando Tatis and Jurickson Profar, plus a passable rookie campaign so far from Jackson Merrill. The Cubs are the third, averaging exactly one fWAR per position thanks more to a bunch of average performances than any one star (Mike Tauchman has, believe it or not, been their best performer). And that leaves the Brewers in second. Did you spot the two Brewers among the all-star candidate list? That's right, as of right now, by fWAR at least, Blake Perkins is the fifth best outfielder in the National League. Yelich, despite his injury, is third. Even Frelick checks in at 25th, so above average for a third outfielder. And it isn't just the defense, although the Brewers do top the league in outfield defense by Fangraphs' metrics. They have also had the second best outfield offense, just ahead of the Cubs, Mets and Giants. And it isn't just the dregs of the league who are struggling. The Dodgers' outfield production has only been saved by the one-year deal they gave to Teoscar Hernandez (the aforementioned slugger). Their other outfielders I believe have combined for .1 fWar. Not 1 fWAR, .1 fWAR. At least they have Hernandez. The Phillies' group, despite Brandon Marsh's passable start, hasn't even combined for 1 fWAR total. Pre-injury Ronald Acuna had accounted for more than half of the Braves' WAR total thus far, meaning they are in a similar boat to the Phillies going forward. Why Is This Happening? The obvious answer is that a combination of injuries and position changes have robbed the NL outfield of many of its marquee names. Mookie Betts is now a shortstop, Bryce Harper plays first and Acuna, well, won't be playing the rest of this year. Looking deeper, however, if you look at an old list of outfield prospects who should be in their early-to-mid primes, you'll see very little production this year, even in the American League. I went through all of the outfield prospects on the MLB Pipeline 2020 top 100 prospect lists, and the production is rather scant. Heliot Ramos obviously had a great May and JJ Bleday, Riley Greene and Marsh have been somewhere between good and very good, but most of them have been having mediocre to poor seasons. There will be some course correction, obviously. Julio Rodriguez is unlikely to remain on the wrong side of middling and Corbin Carroll is unlikely to stay replacement level. For now, however, the production is not there. What Does This Mean? For Brewers fans, I think there are two main takeaways here. 1. Barring injury, I expect other teams to be far more aggressive seeking outfielders at the deadline than Milwaukee will be. 2. Let's start writing in Blake Perkins on the All-Star ballot. For right now, at least, he deserves it.

Make it six K’s through three perfect innings.

Digging back through the DSL boxes, given that he reached base four times in his season debut today, I'll say this: if you want a really deep DSL sleeper, you could do worse than Freider Rojas. His stats last year were nothing to write home about outside of two key things. First, he walked more than he struck out. Second, he threw out 40% of would-be base stealers.

The Brewers system really is infield-heavy, with last year’s DSL middle infield mainstays Flores and Gutierrez being the latest pushed to the outfield. Nice to see a solid offensive debut from hyped defensive prospect Corobo.

I was going to make a trumpets blare joke, but then remembered Arcia’s power surge didn’t start in the opener. Also, the Brewers aren’t nearly as organizationally bereft of shortstops as when an early string of homers transformed a low-profile Latin American signing into possibly the top spot among Brewers shortstop prospects before any of us had even heard if he had a chance to stick at the position.

That was later clarified that Ortiz is eligible (see update at top of this article.)

Adames also stabilized a position the Brewers had often struggled with. From 2010-2020 they had as many seasons dead last in shortstop fWAR as they had in the top 20 (4 each).

I really thought that sticking in that 15-20 projection range was the least likely outcome for Brecht, that he would either soar or tumble, but he really has shown just enough improvement to give you hope but not enough to give you confidence.

Not at all surprised Henderson got a quick promotion. If he can stay healthy wouldn’t be surprised if he sees triple-A before the season is done. Also, although the Brewers still have the worst ERA in the ACL, the gap is narrowing and they are getting close to challenging the Dodgers’ ACL juggernaut for the best offense in the league. I believe every player on the active roster has a .700+ OPS. All with the youngest offense and pitching staff in the league.

The Brewers currently have four players on pace for 5 fWAR (Contreras, Adames, Turang, Ortiz) and a fifth who would be if not for injury (Yelich). The chances of all five reaching that mark are infinitesimally slim, but considering I don’t know if any team since the 1939 Yankees has done it, being on pace is pretty cool.

I kind of look at this as Gasser and Mitchell for Hader given the rumors the A’s would have taken either Ruiz or Mitchell. Still think there is a decent chance it works out positively, though.

Probably a decade or more ago Ken Jennings did a puzzle contest through I think it was Smithsonian Magazine where a puzzle was released every couple of days and if you got all of them they revealed the final puzzle. One of them was just a page from a travelogue and after five or six days of trying everything up to and including trying to convert longitudes and latitudes to letters, I finally realized that all the places mentioned actually had airports and that the airport codes in order spelled a phrase. I now cannot see an airport code without thinking of Ken Jennings.

He was in a couple of the iterations I went through, but ultimately the why hasn’t he been promoted yet question was enough that he missed my list (the top end might not be as good as last year, but there are a lot of guys who feel like they should be in the 15-20 range).

Adames says, “Just one? Nope.”

Nice to see Areinamo heating up too with a home run and a single so far

It is nice to see Baez getting some results the last couple days. He already has the lowest strikeout rate of any full season minor league hitter.

Probably the biggest surprise to me was Guilarte making the list. I know he is apparently the toolsiest of that group of middle infielders, but I just can’t get past the fact that when faced with four middle infielders of basically the same age for three spots in Wisconsin, he was the odd man out. Also, if he keeps playing like he is, how high will Di Turi debut after missing the top 25 this time?

From a purely logistical standpoint, I hope Torres and Gonzalez are ready because the ACL team could use more pitchers, not fewer.

Because of the pre-signing hype (and how Lara, one of that year's big three, has taken off), it feels like Barrios has been in the system forever. Easy to forget he got his start the same year as guys like Demetrio Nadal and Anthony Flores.

I know he is still well short of 100 plate appearances, but Di Turi’s OBP still looks like a typo. He is having some season.

Yah, I was just going off the first post in the thread, which said it was just these votes, not the final version that included the writers’ votes. There were a couple of results I found surprising, but the fact the 15-20 spots were pretty much all over the place was not among them.

Focusing on the positives, I really think Flores is going to be the equivalent of Galindez or Corniel last year. The results might be uneven but good enough to set him up for more success next year.

If my math is correct, Guilarte got the last spot in a tiebreak over Barrios with Wes Clarke one point behind. O'Rae, Letson and Myers were the others who got at least 20 points. Maybe it wouldn't have made a difference, but in even the couple of days that the voting took, it seemed like Barrios and Wichrowski were trending upward with those who voted late while Baez and Guilarte were more popular early, assuming the order in the thread is the order they were submitted. I counted 36 players getting votes, with 31 accumulating at least 10 points.

Jacob Misiorowski The graduations and Quero's injury make him No. 1 by default. Would still like to see him cut the walks obviously.Jeferson Quero Not going to drop him any further than this. If the shoulder is fine long term still think he is a top-tier catching prospect.Robert Gasser Overreaction to shutting down a middling Cardinals lineup? Perhaps, but I can't justify slotting anyone else in above him after that start.Brock Wilken Injuries have prevented him from rising any higher.Tyler Black The inability to establish a defensive home is limiting his upside.Cooper Pratt 6-11 are close, but I'll give Pratt the nod here.Josh Knoth Solid start for a very young A-ballerCarlos F Rodriguez Seems to have righted the ship. Hopefully this is the form he shows going forward rather than the early-season struggles.Yophery Rodriguez Exciting talent, but needs to cut down on the K'sLuis Lara Bat has a bit of catch-up to do, but really young for his league and seems to already basically be there defensively.Mike Boeve Last time I said he had a "check back in double-A" profile. Well ... checks ... yep, he belongs in this tier.Bradley Blalock Brewers saw fit to add him to the 40-man and has been solid if not overpowering so far this season.Luke Adams Production is still there but so are some of the same concerns.Logan Henderson He's probably a top-12 talent, but in order to prove it he actually needs to stay on the diamond.Gregory Barrios Even during his struggles last season, the Brewers consistently treated him like a legit prospect. Turns out they might be on to something.Filippo Di Turi Hottest hitter among the top Brewers ACL prospects so far.Ryan Birchard This goes against my theme of filling the bottom of the top-20 pitching spots with upper level arms, but I am buying the preseason hype.Brett Wichrowski Big time velocity, and the team seems to be treating him like a significant prospectTobias Myers It feels like there is a Big League role for him, even if it ends up being in the bullpen.Tyler Woessner Hopefully Tuesday's start is a sign he is figuring out triple-A. Thoughts: Eric Brown Jr. got dinged a bit for availability. Otherwise for spots 15-20 I chose shortstops over second and third basemen and (with the exception of Birchard) upper-level starting pitchers over relievers or lower-level starters. Rest of the players who received significant consideration, in alphabetical order: Jadher Areinamo, Juan Baez, Eric Bitonti, Eric Brown Jr., Wes Clarke, Oliver Dunn, Bishop Letson, Ernesto Martinez, Dylan O'Rae, Jorge Quintana, Jesus Rivero, Manuel Rodriguez, Russell Smith, Shane Smith, Craig Yoho. Rest of the top 50 in alphabetical order: Luiyin Alastre, Patricio Aquino, Isaac Collins, Daniel Corniel, Alexander Cornielle, Enniel Cortez, Coleman Crow, Yorman Galindez, Daniel Guilarte, Yujanyer Herrera, Quinton Low, Mark Manfredi, Yerlin Rodriguez, TJ Shook, Justin Yeager