CheeseheadInQC

Which power hitting 1B or 3B (that was available at the Brewers selection) do you think they missed out on in the 1st round the past five years? Your hot take sounds great until you actually take 5 minutes to look at the 1st rounds the past several years. So there are never any players that project to hit for power when the Brewers pick. Its not even just the first round we never seem to pick guys with a plus power tool. At draft time, every outfielder they have picked in the first five rounds in the last five years except Bello, Erceg, Egnatuk and, at least relative to position, Feliciano and Dillard were considered to have plus power potential if I remember correctly. For instance, Wiemer from this last draft had power as one of his main selling points.

Take a look at the mlb.com top 30 international prospects for this year. Every infielder is listed as a shortstop. The positions seem to have more to do with the “best player on the high school team plays shortstop” phenomenon than any selection by the Brewers outside the norm.

Because middle infielders who can hit 25 home runs are typically falling over each other to sign minor league and/or bargain-basement major league contracts? The Brewers came into this offseason with four likely AAA position players, none of whom play the middle infield. There were always going to be a bunch of signings/waiver claims of guys like Peterson, Reyes and Lopez this year because there had to be. In the Brewers' last five drafts, they have drafted three players in the first five rounds who would come close to fitting your description (they've drafted four middle infielders total, but I don't think you're talking Hiura). In that same period they have spent five early picks on catchers and six on outfielders to go along with two corner infielders and nine pitchers. Outside of the abundance of catchers, it doesn't exactly seem out of balance.

To be fair, even if only one of the utility infielders makes the MLB roster, it isn't that tough to fit the rest on the AAA roster so long as you're fine with less than optimal shortstop defense at Nashville. But yah, I'm getting a little closer to that place, too.

It will be interesting to see if the contract is guaranteed. If not, the Brewers have the 40-man flexibility to make it a more attractive version of a minor league deal.

The problem with counting guys like Grimm and Morin, who came in on minor league deals, is that every team signs those. Look through the NRIs once spring training starts and you will probably see at least one or two on every roster. Heck, the Brewers had a more noteworthy one name-wise (Shelby Miller). Who cares if you bring in reclamation projects on minor league deals or even non-guaranteed big league deals? There is zero risk and occasionally you get a Wade Miley or a Jeremy Jeffress. Smoak wasn't really a reclamation project so much as he was just a vaguely underwhelming signing. You could argue the Brewers' strategy of bringing in a lot of fringy guys and counting on the whole being greater than the sum of the parts through either usage or just the law of large numbers was flawed, but that is different than reclamation projects.

I agree on 16-week fantasy, especially in dynasty leagues where you can't just cut the half your roster that isn't playing. The one interesting exception I might make was one dynasty league I was in where the two worst teams faced off in week 17 with the winner getting the top pick in the following year's draft.

So basically this is all about the Love pick then? You couch it in being the overall draft and deride Dillon's production so far, but your only examples where they could have actually could have taken an immediate contributor are with the Love pick. Also, haven't Ravens fans been complaining that Queen's primary skill so far seems to be getting to the wrong place very quickly? If you disagree with the philosophy that led to the Love pick, fine, there are a lot of good arguments to be made on both sides of that one. My point is that absent that debate, a combination of talent and circumstance made it unlikely that the Packers were going to be significantly improved by the rest of this draft class no matter which positions they selected.

I don’t know how true this is. Most “experts” picked the Vikings to win the North. A ton complained about after our draft about how we did nothing to improve from last season. Let’s just put it this way, there are a lot of people that won’t own up to their lousy predictions. Name the improvements to the Packers from 2020 draft to the 2020 team? So far the biggest I would say is udfa Barnes. So still stands the draft class has not improved the 2020 team. AJ Dillon managed 5 snaps on offense after Williams left. 1 rush. That's not exactly showing much confidence by MLF towards using him. The impact Justin Jefferson has made for the Vikings his rookie year is I dont know 20? 40? 50? times more impact than GB's 2020 draft class on the 2020 team. Argument still immensely valid. Congrats to the Vikings who had the chance to draft Jefferson because either they were worse than the Packers last year or because their previous star receiver forced his way out of town, I can’t remember which. Of the 36 rookie starters, 17 were gone before the Packers picked. By the time Dillon, who you mentioned, was picked, 10 were left, almost exclusively safeties and interior offensive linemen. Who that was available when Dillon was picked would have increased the Packers’ chance of winning the Super Bowl this year even .1%? Maybe Chinn? Onwenu has been good, but would he have gotten more playing time than Runyan has? It turns out there weren’t that many win-now options available.

Feels like 26th man competition for Mathias, with the loser taking the Nashville second base job.

Jared Goff is almost halfway to a Hall of Fame career by the winning percentage measure. Like the previous poster said, Moon, Fouts and Jurgensen wouldn't hit that mark (While it is skewed a bit by there being fewer playoff teams, I don't believe Jurgensen ever made the playoffs in a season he was the team's primary starter). Why not just era-adjust the stats instead? Era-adjusted efficiency stats combined with Super Bowl wins and MVP awards end up being a fairly accurate Hall of Fame predictor.

Why? They need players, especially hitters, to fill the double-A and triple-A rosters and Cozens probably at least has a little more offensive upside than the average guy they could get to fill one of those spots.

This is both an exciting and high variance group. Only three of the names on that list have completed a full season of minor league baseball.

Raw yardage totals alone aren't going to get a guy like Stafford in. I believe Kerry Collins, Vinny Testaverde, Dave Krieg, Carson Palmer and Drew Bledsoe all at one point were in the top 10 all time for yardage and none is looked at as a Hall of Famer.

Not shocked by Kelly's placement. He was probably looked at as having the highest upside among the system's pitchers going into 2020 and he clearly really impressed them at the alternate site. Quero is intriguing. This has become the most-hyped international signing class possibly in Brewers history and they haven't even played an official game yet. It will be interesting to see how these catching prospects develop. You could make a case that nine of the Brewers' top-50 prospects are at that position.

I've got mostly the same names as you, albeit in different places, and with Maile instead of Freitas. Two exceptions: Ortega is on the restricted list and on the roster in name only and given that they sounded pleased with Dillard's development behind the plate I think he and Fry are an either-or duo with one at AA and one at high-A. That's how I got to eight, plus you'll might see a couple extra brought in to cover spring training injuries.

I dont think the Brewers are that far off. First of all, there are players missing from the rosters that should be listed. I count 11 hitters and 8 pitchers missing that should be stateside and listed. Some are clear omissions like Vassalotti, Westbrook, J. Gray, Alex Hall, Zach Clark, Devanny, and Bello. I'm not too sure about these but I dont recall seeing they were let go: C. Leal, M. Wilson, Cipion, E. Martinex, J. Cabrera, T. Gillies, Schanuel, C. Sierra, Milligan, Begue, Yi, and Uribe. I count about 25 players that could be at AAA and AA each. So they will sign a few minor league free agents but probably not that many more than usual. A+, A should be fine. Plenty of players are available from the Rookie leagues that can fill positions. I think the minors is going to be very different than in years past. With the elimination of the Rookie and short season leagues, teams will want to get these players into games sooner. Sure there will be the Arizona complex, but that is less likely to be as structured. So you will see a watering down of the talent that we are used to seeing. Low A is going to have more younger players from the rookie leagues and recent draft picks and so on up. Plus, we dont know how teams are going to evaluate 2020. Some players played in independent leagues and probably worked with trainers and some players watched TV and ate Cheetos all summer long. We will likely see players who were in Low A in 2019 be pushed to AA in 2021 as they would have normally progressed if 2020 would have been played. Clark retired, I think Yi was cut and Leal hasn't been around for awhile, but I think you're right on the rest. I'm curious how you're getting to 25 at AA and AAA, especially if you're taking positions into account at all. Even if you force some of the minor league veterans like Garcia, Piniero, Coca and Lujano up to AA to fill spots, there simply aren't enough hitters, especially in the middle infield. Taking into account the inevitable injuries, it seems 8-10 hitters are needed, plus possibly a couple of pitchers for injury depth.

Trying to put together teams based on players in the system, a few things have become apparent (I am assuming no roster changes in full season, so 12 hitters per team): 1. High-A and A ball will likely be pretty fluid. I think a lot of 2019 college picks are going to be skipping low A (Holt, Hamilton, Kahle, possibly Devanney and Nnebe). 2. They have plenty of players to fill the low-A teams. I count 13 outfielders who should be at one of those levels, plus the possibility that Perez gets pushed to full-season ball. For the infield spots, I count 11 plus two who are borderline A/rookie, plus Garcia, who is in a similar situation to Perez. And of course, they have enough catchers 3. For the upper levels, I've got four catchers, two first basemen, two AAA third basemen, one or two middle infielders depending on Mathias, five outfielders and Wilson, who could conceivably slot in as an infielder or outfielder. Plus I guess they could toss one or two of the more veteran guys who belong at High-A here in a sink-or-swim scenario. Barring that, though, even not accounting for injuries, it would seem they need four middle infielders, an outfielder, either another outfielder or a third baseman, depending on Wilson, and one miscellaneous hitter.

If he was taken in the Rule 5 he would have to be on the MLB roster all season. By trading for him, Milwaukee will not be required to do so. Seems like a pretty meaningful distinction. And no other team thought he was worthy either. You could say the same for a lot of the players on the Brewers' 40-man roster. Among the bullpen guys at least Williams, Suter, Topa, Perdomo and Bickford all passed through the Rule 5 draft. On offense, at least Taylor did with the Brewers and Narvaez and Pina did with other teams. Pina was acquired in pretty much this same way (as a PTBNL until after the Rule 5 draft). No one is saying he is Kershaw, but if he can give them similar value as Pina has, that would be a good get.

There's a decent gap between top 20 prospect and pure org arm, and he seems to fit in there nicely, somewhere between mildly and moderately intriguing depending on if you focus on the positive (the Brewers have gotten some play out of this type of profile in the past and are comfortable working with it) or the negative (this might be basically a one-year look given that I think he is eligible for minor league free agency next year if he isn't added to the 40-man). Given the circumstances, a guy like Guillermo Zuniga was probably the best-case scenario. I don't know that the value difference between the two is significant enough to not be somewhat pleased.

Interesting that there was a 15-3 pitcher to hitter split. Even the Dodgers' Estevez, who was looked at as a near lock to go, didn't get picked. I'm a little surprised, unless they have a bunch of minor league free agent signings lined up and were waiting until after the minor league phase of the draft, that they passed on at least grabbing someone like Errol Robinson in the AAA phase. They only have one or two (depending on if Mathias ends up in the big leagues) middle infielders who belong in AA or AAA. They need some guys just to fill out the rosters. Less surprised the Brewers didn't have anyone picked in the minor league phase. The fact that the Brewers even protected some players who don't seem to have a clear roster spot for next season probably tells you all you need to know on their opinion on Kirby's health, unfortunately.

To be fair, there is zero statistical justification for Namath being in the Hall of Fame. Even for his era, he wasn’t in the same zip code as the top guys. Namath is in because of his influence on NFL history more than his play.

A big part of it is guys are playing longer. Prior to this group I believe there were two Hall of Fame QBs who started into their 40s, Moon and Favre. There are two in their 40s right now, plus likely ones at 39, 38 and 37. The older group really skews things. This situation is kind of like the late 90s, when you had the great QBs that started in the first half of the 80s (Marino, Elway, Kelly, Moon, Young) ending their careers and Manning and Warner starting the next wave. Much like then, though, there isn't much in between. Between the Class of 83 and Manning, I believe only two Hall of Fame QBs were drafted (Aikman and Favre). Right now you have one likely one older than 25 and younger than 35 (Wilson).

That is one more championship game start than Sonny Jurgensen and the same number as Dan Fouts. It is really difficult to make even an era-adjusted stats case against Rivers that doesn’t go against precedence when it comes to HOF QBs. He doesn’t have the mystique because he is a contemporary of three of the best to play the position plus another possibly in the top 10, but his play is consistent with a mid-to-lower level HOF QB.

Of the guys not yet eligible (or not until this year) in my opinion: No doubt first ballot: Peyton Manning, Tom Brady, Aaron Rodgers, Drew Brees In, but maybe not first ballot: Ben Roethlisberger, Phillip Rivers Almost lock, but not enough longevity yet to put in the first two groups: Russell Wilson Coin flip: Matt Ryan, Tony Romo No: Eli Manning, Matt Stafford, Carson Palmer Eli was an average at best quarterback that rode a great defense and a hot streak to two Super Bowl wins. Stafford is overrated by his counting stats. Ryan and Romo fall into the category where they are worse than basically everyone in the Hall, but, setting aside the Ken Anderson debate, better than the top group left out of the Hall (Dave Krieg, Boomer Esiason, Craig Morton, Mark Brunell, John Brodie, Phil Simms, etc.)