CheeseheadInQC

Because he ended a 60 game season on a hot streak. Last year was incredibly flukey and you basically could change the story line of your year as a hitter in the last three days. His OPS was .666 after 57 games. Then he had a homer and a 4/4 day to inflate his OPS to .734. Which sadly for Arcia, still would have been his best offense in years before the hot streak I suppose. Except pretty much every one of his peripherals was better. He hit the highest percentage of line drives of his career. He had the most hard contact and the least soft contact of his career. His exit velocity was a career high. He swung at the fewest pitches outside the strike zone and made contact on a career best percentage of the pitches he did swing at. Is it possible he reverts to his previous form? Sure, especially with a likely decrease in playing time. But I just don't get the certainty a lot of people had that it was a fluke, that Arcia has always been bad and will always be bad. That being said, the trade makes a fair amount of sense. They are going to need a lot of pitching this year, and with Lauer seemingly broken, and File, Bettinger, Brown, and Jankins all on the shelf, bringing in a guy like Weigel who could give you a potentially passable spot start or two, even if he will likely be better in the bullpen, has some value to the Brewers right now.

I devalued him a lot because of the Brewers’ actions I mentioned earlier - both because they would have a better grasp on his game than I do and because at some point the organization has to give him a chance to have value as a Brewers prospect, but I can understand the appeal of Hummel if you completely disregard those things. He was legitimately one of the best hitters in the Southern League in 2019, and it wasn’t like he was repeating the level either. I just can’t get past all the warning signs.

With Bello, I am guessing a combination of reading the tea leaves and where he is on the list. He got plaudits for his play in instructs. Also, outside of a catcher (and they always bring a lot of catchers) the others on the initial early minor league spring training hitters list were all either likely AAA guys or top prospects. When he got that invite, I moved him up five or six spots mostly because there were a lot of guys who I had ranked just about even in that area. I think that might be why he made the jump, once you get past the top 10-12 and the individual's favorites, there is a large group where all it takes is a bit of optimistic talk to stand out, and Bello has been getting some of that optimistic talk. With Hummel, on the plus side he is getting listed as a catcher/outfielder, which seems to indicate the Brewers are going to get him some work behind the plate again (and being a decent emergency option behind the plate could give him a leg up to eventually get a 26th man spot on the roster). The downside, though, is that the Brewers aren't really treating him like a prospect (no alternate site invite last year or major league camp invite this year despite his AA numbers). Otherwise, a couple of the recent draft picks feel a bit high, if the reports that he has made decent progress behind the plate are true, Dillard feels a bit low and while I didn't have them on my list either, I'm beginning to think there is a decent chance at least one of Perdomo and Feyereisen's vote total is going to look really low come season's end.

Wow, 60% of what likely would have been the AAA starting rotation is missing from that list because of injuries (Bettinger, File and Brown).

Honestly, making the finals with an all-freshman lineup today, when the top players rarely spend more than a year in college, would be absurdly impressive. The Duke team that beat Wisconsin is probably the most freshman-led team to ever win it all and they only started three and had an all-conference senior. Most of the teams that have started four of five freshmen underachieved based on the hype. Now go back to that era, when the best players stayed in school longer ... That Duke team they lost to was probably the pinnacle of that era of Duke teams. Not winning it as sophomores might have been disappointing, but that first year was legitimately revolutionary.

Add Yaphet Kotto to the list of those who died recently. Man, he was great on "Homicide."

Am I counting correctly? Unless there is a surprise with Yardley or Arcia, it seems like McKinney and the NRI relievers are competing for one spot.

Has Milner been officially ruled out? Otherwise he'd be another option among the NRIs.

Night for the Brewers bullpen: David Dahl single given up by Perdomo, then 10 straight strikeouts. That’ll play.

After the way Yardley pitched last year, I imagine there is no chance he doesn't make the team. Perdomo was also mentioned as a possibility by Counsell. I'm gonna go Yardley, Feyereisen and Black if it is truly down to 3 spots for those guys. I missed Counsell’s comment on Perdomo. I would have included him but I thought he had already been optioned. I mentioned Yardley because I think Rasmussen is more of a lock than him and there is a chance three things are true: 1. The Brewers want a more traditional lefty given their others have defined roles. 2. The Brewers aren’t ready to give up on Black. 3. Feyereisen has forced his way onto the team. If even one of these three things isn’t true, I think Yardley makes it. If they all are, though, I think his is the spot most in jeopardy.

So probably pick three of Topa, Yardley, Feyereisen, Black, Milner and Hardy? I am assuming Rasmussen has earned a spot.

I’ve got Gonzaga, Illinois, Ohio State and Michigan, with Gonzaga winning it all. I don’t like going with Michigan, but I am not buying the SEC this year and Texas’ Big 12 Tourney win felt more like a matter of circumstance than an indicator of future success. I would be tempted to take Illinois to win it all, but that path is just brutal.

I also appears the Brewers have moved Westbrook back to second base, so he would likely be the third middle infielder. And yes, that makes the AAA defense look potentially sketchy, although to be fair shortstop wouldn't have been the ideal spot for Lopes or Mathias either. Between File's injury and Bettinger and Brown needing to be shut down at various times, the starting pitching depth has taken a beating as well.

I agree with this. People point to Carlos Gomez and his figuring it out in his age 26-27 season as a reason to not give up on him just yet. While I can understand the point, one has nothing to do with the other. To the eye test, Arcia's defense has started to slip already and he makes the routine plays more difficult than need be. Additionally, he has made zero effort to change his approach at the plate. How many times does he have to step in the bucket and open up his entire left side when the pitch is down and away? His approach leads one to believe he thinks he is Javier Baez and he has never approached that type of production. Nothing personal to Arcia but I give Urias at least the first two months to at least show what he has as an everyday player. If Urias is still meddling, a timeshare might make sense, and see what could potentially be had on the trade market or free agency next year. The Gomez comparisons are pointless. Carlos was pretty bad his whole career, put up two really good seasons, and then was mediocre the rest. But he at least passed the eye test in terms of "this guy might be a hitter someday". At no point have I watched Arcia and thought he has the potential to do anything at the plate - terrible discipline and terrible swing. I wonder what his career path would have been had he not had that "great" offensive year in AA. I remember a lot of people here and the media fawning over him after that. He's never backed it up. Everything you've said was correct until last year. That's the conundrum with Arcia is that suddenly that noodle bat was having league-average exit velocities and that awful plate discipline was laying off pitches outside the strike zone at a better than league-average rate. I don't think he'll reach Gomez's level, which was legit MVP-caliber player at his short peak, but I also don't see what is so crazy about thinking that last year's numbers could indicate that he's turning into a league-average offensive shortstop. And, well, there's value in that.

His strikeout and walk rates have improved every year and Fangraphs had him as the 10th most valuable reliever in baseball last year. I think he probably wins a rotation spot, but I think he is trending fine for the deal.

So if Mitchell is in the lineup today does that mean minor league camp is a term and they essentially are the same place? I'm guessing it is the same as most years where a certain number of minor league camp players come over for each game but still train on the minor league side. Also, it hasn't gotten the publicity as Ashby, but it seems like the other two from the original list of 12 still there are Brown and Henry.

I think it essentially means the player has power to hit a ball far, but doesn't do it consistently in games. Why? Well BP is usually 60 MPH meatballs...in game isn't as simple as practice. Most of the time it probably boils down to pitch awareness and being able to square it up. For most guys, yes, but wasn't the central point behind this thread that Mitchell's swing just doesn't produce much loft? I have my suspicions that the plus-plus raw power reports aren't referring to peppering the bottom of the outfield wall with frozen ropes. If he is putting on HR shows in BP, that would seem to indicate that he is swinging differently at the meatballs than he swings in games.

Maybe I've just missed an explanation, but if he has shown plus raw power in batting practice does that mean that he has a different swing that he uses in those sessions than during the games? And if so, are there elements to that swing that would make it unusable or would it at least give him a base to work with if they do have him try to tweak things?

If Mathias is sidelined through the start of the season, the Brewers triple-A middle infield rotation could consist of three players who have spent more time in the outfield than the middle infield in recent years: Reyes, Peterson and Westbrook. For all the jokes about the number of utility infielders Stearns brought in, perhaps it was prescient.

It isn’t so much love as not understanding why people want to cut bait now, just assuming last year’s improvements aren’t real. If he returns to his defensive norms, last year’s version of Arcia is a 2-3 WAR player.

I'll go: C: Narvaez, Pina 1B: Hiura 2B: Wong SS: Arcia, Urias 3B: Shaw, Robertson OF: Yelich, Cain, Garcia, Bradley, Fisher SP: Woodruff, Burnes, Anderson, Houser, Lindblom RP: Hader, Williams, Topa, Rasmussen, Peralta, Suter, Boxberger, Perdomo 1. Final bench spot a coin flip between Vogelbach and Fisher 2. If Cain isn't ready by opening day, insert Taylor. If Urias isn't ready, insert a ninth reliever 3. Perhaps Yardley getting sent down is an overreaction to a couple poor outings, but he has options, and I get the feeling the club would like Perdomo to take that spot to add a non-Hader lefty short reliever to the mix. If Perdomo can avoid walking too many the rest of camp, I think there is a good chance he breaks with the team.

Yep, he set career bests in K-rate, ISO, exit velocity, line drive percentage, hard hit percentage, soft hit percentage, contact rate, and plate discipline. If he builds on last season at all he's probably a league average shortstop. If it was a short-season mirage, so be it, but he legitimately did improve pretty much across the board last year (except his walk rate, which is weird given he swung at far fewer pitches outside the strike zone).

And then you have “Midsomer Murders” ...

I am beginning to wonder if Perdomo doesn’t have a better shot at making the opening day roster than he is being given credit for, especially if they keep 14 pitchers.

some opt-outs, like travis shaw's, can be negotiated. we don't have knowledge of any other negotiated opt-out clauses. other opt-out clauses can be required for nris, provided the player has at least six years of service time and finished the previous season a major league roster or a major league injured list. the brewers have only two such players: brad boxberger and jordan zimmermann. each must be told they're making the club before opening day, or be paid a $100,000 retention bonus in order to assign them to the alternate training site. Thanks, I couldn't remember if Zimmermann had finished the year with Detroit or not.