Boomer5
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Everything posted by Boomer5
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He is just a name at this point but there's nothing wrong with bringing guys into camp.
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Just saw that. It's about the $$$ of course but glad it wasn't Arrieta.
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Lol. No sooner did I post that did he tweet Cobb. Shows you what I know.
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I saw that. He has been working the Arrieta at 5 years angle for a week or so.
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Signing Arrieta is fine if you think of it as a 2 year $100M deal because he will probably be good over the first two years of the deal. With MLB semi getting a handle on PEDs the typical over 30 steep regression is very likely.
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The dollar value of WAR is determined by the value on the open market (i.e. free agency), not including guys that are cost controlled. The current value is likely a little north of $8 million. I saw estimates going into the offseason that predicted the value per WAR was going to rise to $11 million this year, but I don’t think that is the case based on the signings we’ve seen thus far. Well I'm seeing a whole lot of 2-3 WAR guys going for $8M per year. Reed, Swarzak, Chacin, Frazier, even Cain would be under based on $8M. Where are you seeing $8M on the open market? $11M? Are we suggesting a 3 WAR player will be receiving a AAV $33M deal?
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$8M per war is not the math anymore. The Brewers are currently projected at 31 WAR which would mean a $248m payroll. The Cubs are 50 WAR which would mean a $400m payroll. The rest of the league is similar. The new numbers are closer to half that. I'd suggest $4-5M per WAR is a lot closer to reality. I like Braun the hitter, but no, nobody is giving him 15 per year. I could somewhat buy some additional value if he was going to an AL team but the Dodgers would be in the problem we are in now. Taking back Kemps deal makes trading Braun a lot closer to reality but even at that he is still close to being worth maybe 1-2 surplus WAR over the life of the deal if you figure he costs $10M more than Kemp and will generate 3-4 WAR over 3 years.
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Braun does not have $32M in value.
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The Brewers would have to give money to even it out if they want prospects back. Not sure I understand this trade concept.
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Jake was a 3 war pitcher in 2015 and 2016. We aren't getting him for Dubon and Broxton, etc.
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Interesting research on Montero.
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My buddy does legal work with the Cubs (non baseball related) and fwiw he said the Cubs did offer him a deal during the seasons but had no offers to him once FA started.
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The contract is untradable for anything reasonable. Yeah the guy can hit when healthy, but he is a DH at this point and just his presence means we have to trade our best offensive player in Santana. Save this thread for the last 2-3 years of the Cain and Arrieta deals.
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Those high WHIP leftys are a joy to watch. And for our best offensive player last year with 4 years of control? Sign us up. Yeah, that's in blue.
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5/110 for Arrieta? The Brewers have no business giving out $190 million and losing two draft picks to two 32 year old players who are both good but not great.
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Stanton by miles and miles. The Yankees picked up one of if not the biggest bats in the game for peanuts.
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Great analogy on the tic tac toe. If the offseason hinged on landing Darvish then yes, this is was a really silly offseason because Darvish was never ever coming here. Never. Nada. No way. He was only going to play in a glamour city for the highest possible dollar. I'll wait and see what happens the rest of the off season. They will bring in a big arm otherwise they should have just let Brinson and Phillips develop. As long as they don't foolishly sign Arrieta or unload the rest of the farm for Archer, then the offseason was odd with two big over pays, but not destructive to the long term health of the team.
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Yep, there's no way I'd trade Santana for Cotton, unless the A's included another good/great piece. Franklin Barreto would look great at 2B, and he's MLB-ready. Jorge Mateo would be a nice pickup as well. Now, if you're talking Broxton for Cotton, that's the kind of move I could get behind. Absolutely. Cotton is a Broxton type trade, not a Santana type. The As might not think that but to give up Santana for just Cotton would be nuts especially if the goal is to win big in 2018.
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I don't think Cotton makes sense for the Brewers, I also don't think Santana makes sense for the A's. That said, Santana has worlds more value than Cotton...I have to think Cotton as a target would involve mid-level minor leaguers. I'd sure think so. There aren't too many 24 year old 870 OPS guys out there. Cotton is just barely over what we already have in the number 5 slot.
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There's no way they turn Santana into just Cotton
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I love that idea. Make him earn his next contact, then give him a QO and get an extra pick we wasted on the Cain deal. Unfortunately you can't. Under the newest CBA, any player already offered a QO (that is then accepted or declined) can never again receive a 2nd QO. So guys like Edwin E, Carlos Santana, Jake Arietta, Kendray Morales, Wade Davis, etc never have to deal with a QO again after their signed contracts end. I'm running out of reasons why any team would want to sign Arrieta.
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Domingo Santana - round 2
Boomer5 replied to KeithStone53151's topic in Transaction Rumors & Proposals
Braun will miss plenty of games. Get used to hearing the word "intercostal". -
Do it. Plus we can give him a QO and get our pick back.
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Means that they've put their best offers out there for a FA or trade target and were told it wasn't enough. So they're holding firm unless the other end changes their mind. I don't trust anything any GM says ever but for the sake of argument I agree. It's his way of saying stop coming back for more. He can't go into the season with his current roster unless Braun is going to be our 2B and Santana will be catching but whatever he says.
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There's plenty of data out there to make sure any FO stays away. One or two year deal fine. Beyond that and you're a team that flat out doesn't get baseball.