Boomer5

Broxton is not landing a starting pitcher. He is a spare part throw in on such a deal. If we want quality, our bench guys aren't going to get it done.

The goal is to win in 2018 and 2019. The Brewers FO isn't willing to let the young guys develop over time or they don't think they ever will. Yelich, Cain, and the suggested Archer trade are all over paying but only if you look at the long term. This is a two year play.

I was struck by people's responses after this was laid out as a potential asking price. yes, you have to give to get and seldom do you feel like something is a "steal". this is not a comment on the package, but a brewerfan observation regarding the proposed package. first, it seems like there was unified consensus of 'damn, that's a lot to give up', but in addition a strong contingency feeling that 'who knows if any of the prospects pan out and Archer is worth it". I'd say, historically, this community has never been accused of undervaluing its minor league assets. in trade proposals, we are constantly reminded to 'flip the script' and be more realistic. this is really the first time I've ever felt that generally, as a forum, we are undervaluing our assets. I feel like in the past we would have thumbed our noses at a trade proposal like HighHeat19 hinted at. if this is true, is it that we are being swept up in the excitement of making a splash and ramping up our window to include this year. or is it that we're finally seeing more realistically what the value of prospects really is. I do think the yelich trade was a reality-check for some of us, myself included- of what it takes to get elite players, and the overpay needed to put a team over the top. but, I also wonder if we are buying in so much to the market value that we might be losing sight of actual value. obviously there is a difference between player value and market value. I understand that the market value right now for young, controllable TOR guys is exorbitant. and this varies from year to year as different trends come and go ie, pitch framing catchers a couple years ago, and conversely this year with the devaluation of pitchers and to a lesser extent position players, who are on the wrong side of 32. the commodity of these young guns is scarce. however, their scarcity may inflate their price beyond their actual value. In addition, there is also team value/need. when a team has a plethora of young, talented OFers like the Brewers do, our excess diminishes their value, whereas a team who is a solid reliever away from contending, would put an enormous value on that commodity, even if solid relievers weren't highly valued in the market. balancing all three of these is important. I guess, my hope is that the Brewers don't lose sight of capitalizing on the value of our own assets in our quest to fulfill our needs. One example of all of this is Domingo Santana. he is only 25, controlled for four more years, just put up 30 HR and hasn't even tapped his power potential as he's not even entered his physical prime yet. he has true 40 HR potential as well as great OB skills. as people have mentioned Yelich is about ready to break out- the exact same thing could be said about Santana. even factoring his subpar defense, he put up a 3 WAR season last year. his track record and trajectory throughout the minors and majors suggests strongly that it is not a one year fluke. he offers tremendous value to a team and am amazed that his market value doesn't seem higher based on trade hypothesized proposals around the league. Whereas Archer, my all accounts a great pitcher only put up a 3 WAR in the past two seasons combined. now, comparing WAR pitchers vs position players has its own merit of controversial discussion. that's not my point. the point is that both seem comparable in terms of player value. it seems team need and positional scarcity are the things that are primarily different. but, are there really that many 25 year old budding big-time hitters available? We need 1-2 additional TOR to raise us to the next platform. I get that. it seems Stearns is valuing reducing uncertainty percentages with already established guys, who are still cost-controlled. I get that. but, I wonder why Santana doesn't have similar value and am interested if others noted a change in brewerfan prospect values. Based on the pre vs post Yelich trade feedback, quite a few will justify any trade regardless of cost. I expect the same with the Archer trade. Burnes is untouchable until he is traded, In which case his ceiling will be that of a number 4 type. It's human nature of fans in general to see the glass as half full.

Santana, Burnes, Peralta, and Phillips? No way should we do that. Honestly for that deal I'd want both Archer and Jake and maybe we throw in a 15-25 type and one of our bench guys like Augilar or Villar. If WAR and years of control matter, Santana plus Woodruff should be fine for just Archer. We know it won't be of course but that would certainly equal value.

I can't remember a time when we've had a deeper farm than we have right now. It's not "Burnes or bust." Burnes wasn't even really on the radar a year ago, and sadly with the volatility of pitching prospects he may or may not be on the radar a year in the future (the last Brewers pitcher who had a huge season and shot into top-50 prospect discussions was Jorge Lopez..) I like to dream on his potential as much as the next poster (Keith Law ranking him in the 20s, raving about his potential, and so on), but I trust in Stearns and the front office knowing the value of these players. No one can accuse Stearns of emptying the farm in a foolhardy gamble to win in 2018. All of his moves have shown a deliberate attempt to stay relevant for years to come. Let's see if you still feel that way after the Archer trade. Deep doesn't mean good btw. It just means there are a lot of guys who might profile as major leaguers but not necessarily starters let alone difference makers.

Farm systems can be replenished. We completely revamped ours in a 2.5 year period. Purging the MLB roster is easier than acquiring cost controlled talent like Archer. If we are trading assets we will be back to where we were in 2015. Cain can't be traded btw. The plan is not to acquire some good players then churn them down the road. The plan is to win big in the next two years. Otherwise they would just let the current young guys develop.

After the Archer and Yelich trade, our farm will be pretty tapped out which means we will sink or swim with the guys we have.

Wholeheartedly agree. Just think the microscope he's under here is a bit much. Especially considering his cost. Less than $9 Million a year and prospects. That, to me, is too good to pass up. I like Burnes as much as anyone here but I don't view him as someone you have off limits for someone like Archer. Is our current rotation lead by Archer a WS team with the current roster in Milwaukee? Because that's the only reason to pay Tampas asking price.

Odorizzi was replacement level in 2017 but was 3.0 in 2016 and 3.6 in 2015.

Archer is not an ace by any measure. He is essentially the pitcher version of Yelich. A good young player who while not truly great, derives massive team value from his contract.

That's not even an option. They will bring in at least one key SP if not 2. Right now the moves Stearns made left a roster that is currently insane so they must make more moves. Surplus OF plus top prospects will be traded for a starter and likely one of the FA SP will come here too

Aguilar and Broxton are final piece throw ins and in no possible way are they guys that would matter in a trade for a quality SP.

I fit more in the build the farm system at all costs rather than what we are doing now simply because it's the most likely way to build a long term quality organization as a very small market team. What the Brewers are trying to do now by going all in is to win in 2018 and 2019 but they know that after that will be a nightmare. If they win the WS it will be definitely be the right call. If they are just a wild card team who can't go up against the big boys in October than obviously it will not. They are obviously not done so the roster will look a bit different by the time camp opens up.

I like that deal a lot more but my understanding is they really like Schoop and aren't looking to trade him?

If the team signs Arietta or Cobb, they surrender their 4th rounder ... the round Burnes was drafted in two years ago. That's on top of the $100+ million contract. So free agency is not the be all/end all either. I think they will probably sign a free agent (losing that pick) and make a trade (losing a haul of prospects), and posters here will be upset about both. But it will position this team to be a contender for the next 4 years, which is why you have a farm system. I won't be "upset" if they do that. I'm expecting that actually. We are in win now mode and that's what teams do. If we were trying to open a big window we would be developing our own OFers and Starting pitchers and be willing to live with the growing pains. But we aren't. We are signing guys over 30 and trading away our prospects to win now and in 18 and 19 and the team will worry about 2020 and beyond then. I'm fine with that if we are bringing in the right guys who can win a WS. They don't give you flags for finishing with 90 wins and being knocked out in NLDS.

Ok, throw out another option that the team can trade for and throw in as the #1 or #2 in their rotation. Stroman and Fulmer but their returns would be equally large if not more so. The problem is if other teams don't view Santana as a headliner, then we don't have the farm system to get these guys, or more to the point we would literally have to empty all of our top 100 plus to get there if Santana isn't in the trade.

After seeing what the fire sale Marlins just took from Stearns, the Rays probably upped their demands quite a bit. The Brewers have to come away with a TOR guy and possibly a second starter, and other teams know that. Probably the best course will be the FA route because the trade route will be painful.

Oh I'm not disagreeing that pitching is hyper risky and trading the remaining talent on the farm for one is not smart especially when you have the guys we have ready go to soon in 2018 and more likely 2019. But that is the direction they will go, big name expensive types who are ready to make a 2018 run.

Honest question: how many guys throw 95 MPH their whole career? How many guys throw hard sliders their whole career and 95 MPH that don't slow down or get Tommy John? I realize that Archer is only 29, but there's a real possibility that his arm starts to deteriorate in the near future. Cost absolutely factors in for me. Everyone can get excited about Archer only making $7 million instead of Lynn getting $17 for instance, but you also have to factor in that you are giving up Burnes, who, (I realize this is also a risk) will essentially come up with a 6 year, $20 million contract if he performs well. Which is why signing most any pitcher to anything more than a 3 year deal is insane in the days of ultra high rpm pitching. Still I think we all know the Brewers are in go for it mode so expect a whale of a move for a TOR guy.

Why in the world would anyone want Arietta? He wants a monster payday which would be fine if he was in his prime. Which he isn't. Or to put it another way, If the Cubs don't want him why would we?

FWIW hardball talk says Darvish wants to return to LA

If you're going for it, you go for it. Sign Darvish or Lynn/Cobb and trade what it takes to bring in Archer. The Cubs aren't afraid of us now but they would be then.

But Stearns acquired Brinson and Diaz and we don't know that Brinson is a high strikeout player. Just about everyone Stearns acquired prior to Yelich and Cain is a high strike our guy. Looks like he learned and is changing his mind on the guys he picked up.

From a talent stand point you're right. From a putting together a win now team - which is the direction we are at now- the pieces don't fit. I do think Shaw is a clear regression candidate, but he is a 3B and we have none of those on the roster and took a long time just to find him. Mejia is a guy we all like and would be a huge upgrade over our current catchers who are pretty much the definition of regression. I doubt even the most homer of homers is expecting repeat performances from those two in 2018. Salazar has durability concerns so while he is really effective when he pitches, we need a legitimate 30 start 1-2 guy and I'm not sure if Salazar is that guy.

That's literally exactly what it means. You don't make a trade unless you think you are getting more value back than you are giving up. Stearns absolutely thinks that the 4 guys he gave up on are worth less than the contract years of Yelich. The Brewers are 100% in win now mode otherwise there would be no reason to sign Cain. I'm not suggesting that is a bad strategy, only that it is without a doubt the current strategy. This is just flat out wrong wording or thinking . Trading for Sabathia and Greinke were win now moves, Yelich and Cain have 5 years of control, these 2 deals are about making the Brewers better for a long time. We will have multiple drafts to restock the minor league system. There will be some pressure to produce some players to compliment our nucleus but even the “hoarders” should be thrilled, we just acquired our 2 best offensive players (by WAR). We are in win now mode. Cain is not a 5 year player, he is at most a 3 year player who we will be paying on a 5 year contract. You could argue that the goal is a 2-3 window of winning now but make no mistake this is a win now team not a rebuilding team trying to collect young controllable talent. They aren't done. The next move will be for a TOR type and it will be expensive.