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Boomer5

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Everything posted by Boomer5

  1. Boomer5
    This is a good point. Stearns' style to date would be to target controllable, pre-breakout players via trade. Signing a FA like Arietta, Darvish, Cobb, Lynn all fly in the face of what Stearns MO has been to date (granted the Brewers were in "rebuild" mode and not looking for FA). In regard to Archer, I would say that also isn't Stearns MO. Looking at a few trades in particular, Shaw, Villar and Anderson, I think Stearns is looking for SP in a similar vein. Archer has already "broken out" which doesn't make me think he is Stearns target at this point. All of this leads me to believe a trade target would be more a Sean Manaea-type if he is searching for SP via trade. Chacin seems to fit the Anderson profile, late 20s who could still bloom. Who else is a Sean Manaea type player that the Brewers could be targeting via trade? Yo, JC, and Logan are not young or up and coming. Clearly he is going after older guys to fill roles this year.
  2. Boomer5
    MAX: 2 years $20 million Hopefully could get him for 2 years $14-$15ish as that would be better than his highest one year of $5.25 million and double his career earnings of ~$16 million. They inexplicably kept 5 catchers on their 40 man. You don't do that if your plan is to sign one in FA.
  3. Boomer5
    Duffy is a 3.2 WAR guy and Merrifield is 3.9 WAR. That will require a major haul.
  4. Boomer5
    3 plus WAR guys under 30 aren't cheap.
  5. Boomer5
    The Brewers need to do this trade immediately. I'd hate to lose Burnes and Harrison but we have plenty of OFers and Duffy makes up for the loss of Burnes. Diaz has very little value and we already have KH, and Yamamoto isn't an elite prospect.
  6. Boomer5
    Agreed. Our 40 man won't be in a big squeeze next year. Our 40 man has some real fring types and our prospects coming for 40 man status doesn't contain that many who project as major league regulars.
  7. Boomer5
    In 1978 Mike Caldwell was absolutely an ace.
  8. Boomer5
    More young controllable talent.
  9. Boomer5
    We don't know either. There is still one starting position completely up in the air. Nothing they have done so far is preventing Hader from starting the season in the rotation, or adding Nelson whether that be in May or August. They have signed two starters and zero relievers. Hader isn't starting and that's that. Even if you believe Gallardo was signed as a reliever, he sure wasn't signed to be a high leverage late inning reliever which is what Hader is and that doesn't even factor in the huge loss of Swarzak to the late inning mix. Heck we haven't even replaced Hughes. It's still two months before P&C report but it's very clear that Hader is being positioned as a key member of the bullpen, and rightly so. This is not a slight to him or some sort of demotion. It's how teams are built in 2018 where high leverage innings > volume of innings.
  10. Boomer5
    That war came from Petco. No one thinks he is a 3 war pitcher away from there. He is a solid 5th starter. However he is currently our replacement for Nelson. Now do the math.
  11. Boomer5
    Chacin is just a guy who profiles as a really nice 5th starter and a so so 4th starter. He doesn't seem like the best choice for a Miller Park 3rd or 4th starter especially since we have a large number of back of the rotation candidates. He isn't young and he isn't especially cheap. His last truly great year was 2013. His signing doesn't hurt us at all but he won't move the needle if the goal is the playoffs.
  12. Boomer5
    Sounds great to me. Hader has quite a bit more value to me pitching 3 times a week in high leverage situations than 1+ a week as a #5 starter. Absolutely. This is 2018, not 1978. High end relievers who can go 2 innings in high leverage situations are gold these days but they don't cost as much as TOR starters.
  13. Boomer5
    By now we know that Hader is absolutely not starting and they are not expecting Nelson back anytime soon.
  14. Boomer5
    Solid 30 year old 4th/5th starter.
  15. Boomer5
    At first I thought he would be put in the rotation for sure, but am now questioning that after taking a further look at the numbers. Granted, extremely small sample size, but last year when used as a reliever Gallardo posted the following: 6 appearances, 16 innings pitched, 9 hits, 3 earned runs, 0 home runs allowed, 7 walks, 10 strikeouts, 1.00 WHIP, 1.69 ERA Opposition slash line = .164/.258/.255/.513 Interesting thing is that the overall numbers don't indicate that Gallardo was successful early in starts and faded as he got deeper into games. When looking at all of his appearances, the opposition slash line for Gallardo during pitches 1-15 of an appearance (both as a starter and reliever) was .299/.374/.535/.909. So it's not like he was successful early in his starts and faded early, where he might represent a safer projection to a relief role. Have to think that the small sample size during those relief appearances played a part in this signing. There are just no other numbers that indicate Gallardo should be getting a major league deal. Good catch. I'd guess those weren't high leverage innings and his lack of command even when he was good doesn't profile as a reliever but these numbers are indeed interesting.
  16. Boomer5
    Hader isn't starting. The off-season moves say so. They wouldn't have let Swarzak go and they wouldn't have signed a guy that really can only start.
  17. Boomer5
    I would. His ceiling is modestly competent 5th starter and his floor is the worst starting pitcher in baseball. It's not my money but that seems like an odd use of salary. More young controllable talent.
  18. Boomer5
    Agreed on both points. Drafting 19th with the associated pool money does not help bring in those 60 grade players.
  19. Boomer5
    Path C - Stearns believes the talent on the team was legitimate and thinks the youth coming up is legit as well. Thus no need to spend big. I don't see why thinking young players improving and a healthy farm can't produce a contender. I might be the only person who would be happy without a major addition this off season. Fill in around the edges for depth, maybe kick the tires on a second baseman or work a deal to clear the glut of outfielders but beyond that I liked the direction our team was heading. So why change it with costly trades or expensive big name free agents? They lost Nelson, Swarzak, and Walker and added Gallardo. If Plan C is the way he is really thinking, he is expecting a ton from the young guys coming up if the plan is to contend.
  20. Boomer5
    Right now, we are looking at a Davies, Anderson, Woodruff, Suter, Yo rotation.
  21. Boomer5
    This is exactly the issue. YG is a space filler, not a guy a contender would sign to a major league deal.
  22. Boomer5
    "Add one starter (Archer) ane bullpen arm and sign Walker 3/30.. I personally like trading with the Marlins for S. Castro and Urina. I think they would do that for a 4 prospect deal. Then sign a reliever who had a bad 2017, but good 2014-2016." You're looking at two 4 prospect trades there. I'm not saying you don't do that, just that it would be 8 of our top 30-40 guys and certainly Brinson. Which you would only do if you think we are those two trades away from the playoffs or you think our prospects are more meh than good and you want to sell high on their current value.
  23. Boomer5
    LOL! I'm glad the Brewers front office doesn't base their decision on what these clowns at fangraphs tout as analysis. Certain measurable pieces of their analysis have some value, but their big picture outlook has always been dreadful at best. Do you have access to better analysis?
  24. Boomer5
    Fangraphs has us currently as the 7th worst team in baseball going into 2018. http://www.fangraphs.com/depthcharts.aspx?position=ALL&teamid=23 They have us at 24.7 WAR and to put that in perspective, the extreme tanking Marlins are at 22.4. There is no need to overpay to bring in a super high priced player because the MLB team isn't ready. It's far more intelligent to build with our farm system.
  25. Boomer5
    I believe that is part of the issue. The analytics said 2017 was a fluke. Fangraphs had our roster as one of the bottom 4-5 all year long. Another issue is how good is our system to other teams? We have a lot of depth but not a lot of stars. Could it be that teams aren't jumping to acquire the Diazs and Rays of our system? Ultimately I feel the main issue is the bullpen is not Stearns strength. He hasn't yet developed a great feel for the wildly moving performances year over year nor the price point. Therefore he is probably very cautious with his moves.
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