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tmwiese55

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Everything posted by tmwiese55

  1. tmwiese55
    Well glad I was responsible and didn't bet NFL other than GB, would've got crushed. Took a 4/6 on CFB and called it a weekend. 1st half mega favorites hit as well. Seems to be some good options on those this coming weekend too like ND, UW and a couple others.
  2. tmwiese55
    Yea my gut watching it live was to hate the attempt down 9. But after someone pointed some things out and thinking about it and reading a bit, that one seems fine. Basically a can go either way type of thing, it's logical to find out then and there if you need the ball back again or not. The mistake was the first attempt, thus kind of manufacturing a situation that you 'need' a 2 pt. Down 21 you should just kick the 1s the whole time and then if you happen to get to the choice at the end of it to decide on 1 to tie or 2 to win you can do whatever you want. Going the first time made no sense imo. BTW: it cost me losing a bet on the teased over by .5 point. also, I think I saw a tweet that said they only played 9 plays under center the whole game, maybe I misread and it was specific to "I formation", but generally that shouldn't be happening. I'm all for diversifying from the predictability but things should all start off the power run as the focal point, then take advantage of how the D has to gameplan for it. Also hated the return of the conservative punting on your side of the 50 and even 40 yard line. PC had finally done some smarter and more aggressive 4th down decisions, today went back to this which was disappointing. I think they had 3 punts on the positive side of the 50 and at least one was at the 35ish and I think another was inside the 40. Predictably both were kicked through the end zone for under 20 yard punts. ETA: Special teams in all areas have been a week point. Need to really focus on this and clean it up before OSU.
  3. tmwiese55
    I actually think your first paragraph is very accurate and why he'll win. The games is Trout. The logic is that if Yeli is automatically eliminated due to games played then Trout should be too. I don't know how the same voters would apply on one side and not the other, especially since Yelich's team has been better than Trout's all year. Yeli also has a higher OPS than Trout, but I'd assume WAR is on Trout's side due to D. But, I know they will. I know it's not Yeli vs Trout. Bregman is just as deserving as an alternative in the AL as Bellinger. I'm merely saying I don't know how it applies to one but not the other.
  4. tmwiese55
    That doesn't really come into play in baseball. But, Brewers are one of the worst hitting teams since Yeli went out BTW. Middle of the pack. 7th in NL, 15th in MLB. I was remembering a tweet from a few days ago. I'm sure everyone saw it where it laid out the poor offensive stats next to crazy pitching and our record. A few good days lately in such a small sample must've improved it. ETA: found it. AS of 9/20 they were last in MLB with a .201 AVG, last in MLB with RISP and 12th in NL in wRC+. But yea, they've had some good days since then and can swing things quickly in such small samples.
  5. tmwiese55
    That doesn't really come into play in baseball. But, Brewers are one of the worst hitting teams since Yeli went out BTW. Still, somehow with that logic it's just better to be a bad team all the time. Regardless, it's tough to say Yeli can't win due to not playing enough games at 130 while simultaneously giving an MVP to someone who played 134.
  6. tmwiese55
    I actually think with Bellinger's drop off Yeli should win it now. 1.5 months ago when they had comparable slashes, yea tie breaker goes to winning team. Now, Yeli has wide margins. Plus, it seems like Trout will be unanimous MVP in AL pretty much and he ended his season just a few days after Yelich. If he still wins Yelich should too, tough to say the injury eliminates him but not Trout.
  7. tmwiese55
    haha, and use 'Cards fan' for anything pretentious, snobby, or 'acting better than'.
  8. tmwiese55
    Generally agree with Jopal. Cubs still have a ton of talent. They have one massive achilles heal with their bullpen, fix that and they could still be a huge threat. And as we saw first hand, you don't neeeed to spend a ton of money to fix a pen. Need some breaks and luck, but it can be done. That said, obviously they're facing a lot of decisions on starting pitching this offseason. I was speaking in general on the current team. For Schwarber, yea DH is best but there's probably a chance he can play some 1B at competent level if traded.
  9. tmwiese55
    Good post. Yea in general NFL has over managed and over reffed themselves into hurting their product. Another way to look at these calls last night. If any of the three big ones (non reversal on the jumping WR, last play pick, wheel route) happens without the new replay system I simply go "ah shoot, could've gone our way, sometimes they do, sometimes they don't." And the breaks will even out in the long run. None were so ridiculous that you couldn't understand a live ref missing them. But, once you put in a replay for it well then you should get it right and do it correctly. For the non reversal, I don't know how even the most biased Eagles fan wouldn't have accepted that when it gets overturned and said "yea, that sucks but yea he did it". It was basically just like Rams/Saints play that led to the rule but without straight up knocking him down.
  10. tmwiese55
    Also, go re-watch the wheel route TD to the RB by Philly last night. I was at the game and caught this live as it was in my end of the field, saw one quick replay on the board. I said since it's a scoring play it should be reviewed, of course it wasn't. But their WR just straight up takes out the LB supposed to be covering the RB. As you've all said, last night showed to a T how horrible of a rule it is and that it should just go away. If you're going to have it in place and still get all this stuff wrong (due to how subjective it is) then just don't have it all and let the randomness of luck and how borderline calls can go your way or against you just continue on like it has forever. https://www.12up.com/posts/video-jordan-howard-extends-eagles-lead-on-tnf-with-catch-and-run-td-01dnr90v1n7m Note: Genius play design though as you know refs are going to miss this 98% of the time
  11. tmwiese55
    Cubs are doing nothing wrong and I have no complaint. This happens every year all over the league. But, I'd say he should've just done it. No need to talk like this to make it a story and just in general to be a jerk. And as some have said, I fully agree that if this was in the reverse and our manager said it then Joe would be the second one (after anyone Cards related) to talk about integrity and what's right for the game. Plus, Cubs fans would be making a big fuss complaining about it and how they're being screwed. Granted, I'm sure there is some faction of Brewers fans doing the same but I'd guess at a much lower clip than if in reverse.
  12. tmwiese55
    haha, well everyone could've done that against GB last night. Whoops.
  13. tmwiese55
    Exactly. Think of this way in regards to a hail mary in football down 5 from the 50 yd line. Projections say the leading team is 98% to win, the hail mary hits and the game flips. That doesn't mean there was some massive flaw in the projections. Or in an example that we saw. STL is up a couple runs in the top of the 9th bases loaded 2 outs and Braun has 2 strikes on him. Projections say STL is say 97% chance to win, Braun hits grand slam and it flips. Doesn't mean there is some massive flaw in the math. The longshot happened, it's part of the equation.
  14. tmwiese55
    Go back and look at the percents on say NYY, LAD, MN, ATL, etc. and they all held up. People take these things too seriously, it's just another bit of data trying to give a best guess on the chances of something happening. Not necessarily making a prediction on if it will.
  15. tmwiese55
    No, they'd just play to win Sunday so as to not have to play Monday at all. That's what I mean though .. if they are playing to win Sunday they would pitch Flaherty on 3 days rest and go with Wainwright in a playoff scenario on Monday.. if that ended being the case we would avoid Flaherty for that playoff game. Ah brain farted there. Thought it said Flaherty lined up to pitch Sunday, my bad.
  16. tmwiese55
    No, they'd just play to win Sunday so as to not have to play Monday at all.
  17. tmwiese55
    Moreover the legality of paying men's athletes but not women's. Or other sports. Title 9 law complicates this much more than the average joe realizes. Also, just a reminder they do pay them currently. They all get a stipend each semester for general walking around money. Simplest thing they can do to help kids out some more (keep in mind they just increased the stipend and added free food for all) is to simply increase that stipend a bit more. It doesn't mess up the entire system, it doesn't give them 'pro level' type money, it doesn't break the budgets everywhere. I can't' recall the number right now, but let's say it's 5K per semester, bump that up to 7K, something like that. Keep ahead of inflation. And I say that fully knowing that huge chunk of that money is going to be spent on video games, weed, tats, jewelry whatever stuff they don't need. I don't care, another big chunk will go to what it's actually for in letting them not live poor, be able to afford trips home, get a car, etc.
  18. tmwiese55
    Ha, again some great ones here. Kind of boring that I miss most now. For the having only played SS. Virtually any SS should be able to play 2B with no problem at all. 3B is a bit different due to the quick reaction, but in theory the arm strength should be there for the SS. And remember Arcia plays on the 2B side about 1/3 of the time as it is. If we got another guy to start at SS I'd be fine with Arcia in the Perez roster spot. Either he or the new guy should be able to move around as needed to cover some 2B due to injury or days, hopefully some 3B too. Somebody has to be here who can play 3B. Assuming Moose is back, I think it makes a ton of sense to have a RH backup 1B/3B combo guy. ETA: I saw mention to 'clubhouse' type stuff in favor of Iglesias. Just adding that Arcia seems extremely well liked on the team in spite of how he gets ragged on here for his 'attitude'. I of course have no knowledge on Iglesias. Thing is, outside of him there doesn't seem to be any even reasonable options. So a Nick Gordon or a blocked young guy of some kind might actually be the wiser move to have some upside left and also of course being cheap. [sarcasm]Then again, we had like 5 infielders in AAA this year hit the cover off the ball, so we should be all set actually. Just give them the chance.[/sarcasm]
  19. tmwiese55
    Ha, again some great ones here. Kind of boring that I miss most now. For the having only played SS. Virtually any SS should be able to play 2B with no problem at all. 3B is a bit different due to the quick reaction, but in theory the arm strength should be there for the SS. And remember Arcia plays on the 2B side about 1/3 of the time as it is. If we got another guy to start at SS I'd be fine with Arcia in the Perez roster spot. Either he or the new guy should be able to move around as needed to cover some 2B due to injury or days, hopefully some 3B too. Somebody has to be here who can play 3B. Assuming Moose is back, I think it makes a ton of sense to have a RH backup 1B/3B combo guy. ETA: I saw mention to 'clubhouse' type stuff in favor of Iglesias. Just adding that Arcia seems extremely well liked on the team in spite of how he gets ragged on here for his 'attitude'. I of course have no knowledge on Iglesias. Thing is, outside of him there doesn't seem to be any even reasonable options. So a Nick Gordon or a blocked young guy of some kind might actually be the wiser move to have some upside left and also of course being cheap. [sarcasm]Then again, we had like 5 infielders in AAA this year hit the cover off the ball, so we should be all set actually. Just give them the chance.[/sarcasm]
  20. tmwiese55
    That year 96 win Toronto doesn't even make the playoffs along with 91 win MKE. Surprising it took so long to get to 4 teams making it on each side.
  21. tmwiese55
    That year 96 win Toronto doesn't even make the playoffs along with 91 win MKE. Surprising it took so long to get to 4 teams making it on each side.
  22. tmwiese55
    Yea the ACC is very weak right now after Clemson. FSU, Miami, VA Tech, Louisville all taking big steps back. Then throw in that Clemson I think misses Miami this year and doesn't get ND. I know Pac 12 gets ripped on due to not having a 'title' contender but really top to bottom ACC is worse. Pac 12 really only has one truly bad team most years in Oregon ST. As of now you have to call UCLA bad but that's not going to last.
  23. tmwiese55
    Yes, SEC mastered the game theory on this years ago and everyone else is finally catching up including the B1G. Other conferences should be pressuring SEC to add the 9th conference game though just like almost everyone else has.
  24. tmwiese55
    Same. Most weeks I can find CFB ones I like easily (not that they always hit) but kind of struggling this week. But several NFL games stand out this week, including GB tomorrow. Bal line seems to be stretching out now so not sure on it. ATL at home is probably my 2nd one and if NE only stays at 7. Chiefs/Det over as well. I could see the logic in just riding Chiefs to cover too
  25. tmwiese55
    The stuff gets all set in advance years ahead. Tough to plan things of that nature. In theory, they just did what you said with Mich, buuuut turns out maybe Mich isn't that good. Also have an opener with PSU not far down the line. By that logic you'd also want to move a bunch of late season rivalry games such as OSU/Mich and Bama/LSU. Really can't plan all that stuff years in advance so just have to randomize as much as possible. I'd say too the UW/OSU game this year is early enough that you'll have plenty of time to climb back up the rankings after a loss. UW's schedule in spite of being very tough this year I think was laid out very well. First, two byes. Bye week before Mich. Then a Kent St game for semi bye in the middle of the longest stretch of games. Illinois a semi bye right before OSU (though Ill looks improved). Bye week before a tough stretch to end and right before physical games vs Iowa/Neb.
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