tmwiese55
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Everything posted by tmwiese55
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Classic baseball. How about another just easy win please, two days in a row with no stress would be nice.
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Yes I was one who expected the guy to hit fine this year but I am always on the cautiously optimistic and be patient type views when guys come up. So as one who even had a pump the breaks, lets relax and don't expect too much type view he has clearly blown that away and I would agree with TBCC he's likely their 2nd best hitter right now. Hoping it's not long until he gets slotted in the 3 hole behind Yeli. I grabbed him in a keeper fantasy league the day he got called up, so yea I think that's going to pay off well. About my only saving grace of this season in that regard.
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Houser to the pen and say they trade for two reliable guys, all of a sudden we go from 1 guy to 4 in the pen. Massive difference. Plus JJ is OK, even if not what he was last year. So maybe better phrasing would be like 1.5 to 4.5, haha. Really that should help a ton and being they're still right in the race anything can happen.
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Remember Cincy just had 3 games at Col to skew small sample July. But yea, still wouldn't surprise at all of Cincy slowly falls to middle of the pack. They just don't have much talent there outside Castillo. Well I guess Gray too if he's fixed him, but again that's a positive thing for him if he has. Someone else pointed out here recently the runs saved stats this year vs the last couple. That could be a key part to what he was doing well in regards to pitching to the D regardless of the blah talent he's had at both stops. And getting good results in spite of seemingly not drastic individual pitching improvements. ETA: Note that I'm not trying to say Hook is horrible and doesn't deserve a chance, heck he could be fine/ok/average, might get better and better. Essentially I don't have an opinion on him. I'm more trying to say I think DJ is above and beyond, possibly the best in the league or at least top few.
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First, great post by Stache way at the beginning. That's generally my take on some of this discussion on here lately about trading all our good players right now. Second, some of the numbers tossed out recently in the 30-50 mil per year range just don't make sense to me. That is paying FA market rates for a guy controlled for 3 more years. If there isn't a reasonable discount then you just don't have to do it. He'll be in his low 30s, we should not be looking to add in a 30+ mil per year deal for someone in those ages. I don't see the harm in talking to the guy and seeing what he's open to, heck he clearly was open to security in stability when he signed this deal with MIA. But if his agent says something like 'we took a team friendly deal the first time, this time we need market' well then it's probably dead for now. Revisit in a year or two. If he says, 'yea he loves it here and would love to lock something in for his long term stability.' Then keep talking and see where it ends up. The Brewers have him all the power in the negotiation now (controlled for years and won't hit FA until early 30s which has been bad for people lately) and shouldn't feel the least bit guilty about it, especially since it wasn't them who signed him to the deal. If you can't use that leverage for a big discount, then ride it out.
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OK, got it and generally fine take. Cincy from 24th (and bad several years prior too) to 3rd. MKE from 5th to 16th. Quick note on Miley, remember he only pitched less than half the season last year and if anything that this coach got him from a washout with a 5-6 run ERA the previous 5 seasons back to a solid pitcher again is evidence for him, not as this is being spun like it was some massive talent infusion that he had here. Yes, good to see the starters returning to form lately. I've said that in several posts. Lately they've been just fine, and really that's all our strategy was with these guys is to just be ok for 5ish innings and then get us to the pen alive. Plus Gio should be back soon to add in some fashion. Problem is the pen has just been brutal outside of 1 guy. I'm kind of torn, off the top of my head BC92 take on Houser continuing to start is what I think I'd like as you can at least see the upper end potential there. However, he also profiles much better in that Burns/Woodruff role form last year than a Gio/Anderson type would. Basically that those control soft tosser types seem really only like starters to me whereas a hard thrower like Houser is more dangerous in the pen than those guys. I see either direction and won't blame them, but I guess I'd go back to Houser in the pen as we really need help there badly.
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You pretty much said what I said. If you do it now it's for the discount, if he doesn't give it then no rush
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Of course they're the massive favorite, but the Dodgers have been loaded for about 6-7 years now and only made the WS two of those years. WAS had been loaded for 5ish seasons and never made it. It's baseball, the biggest post season crap shoot there is, if you can get there you have a legit chance. Being 2ish games out of a division is just tough to not go for it.
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I think the attitude of "all teams go through bad stretches, it happens and is fine or no big deal" is what I was referring to along with taking the attitude that people are just haters if they want to discuss the issues the team is having right now. IMO, no this is not just a cold spell or 'baseball happens' type thing. They have only one starter who can go deep while only having one reliable reliever, this is a big problem for overall team construction and seems tough to overcome as constructed. Still, with the Cubs leaving it wide open and how often good relievers move every year I think it can be patched at not much cost and still make a run at it. Yea, crazies doom and glooming on everything like last year's blasting Counsel after every loss over his pen choices or now taking the attitude that this team is terrible has no shot are just ridiculous though. Or even the 'perpetually trade everyone who's any good' crowd as well. ETA: thought of another one, whenever a P gets beat up it means they're trash and should be sent down
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I mean, you could obviously also easily find bad stretches of play by mediocre to bad teams as well. It is important to remember how the team looked headed into the ASB last year to get perspective and remember small sample and not to overreact, but it also just might be they don't have enough pitching this year. We're at a half season now and the pitching staff has shown nothing to think this isn't the norm, at least last year you could chalk it up to the 25 games in 24 days or whatever it was to burn them out and you'd been pitching well other than BP blowing games as they were gassed at the ASB. I suppose the starters have returned to basically be OK of late though, that's a good sign at least. But I don't know how someone can sit here and think all is fine with this team, it's been generally rough all year (as 'rough' as it can be for a .500ish team). Still don't think they're that far off if they add a couple bullpen arms they can trust as I think the O will be fine the second half. Basically since 2/3 of the young starters flopped you have to do your best to recreate last year's bullpen formula.
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I haven't read anyone saying the pitching coach didn't matter. Just that there are a lot of reasons for the struggles and that is obvious that Hook is not playing with the same deck as DJ. How good would the Brewers have been last year with Knebel out, Jeffress hurt than ineffective and no Miley? They would have struggled. There are a few pitchers who are definitely pitching better under Hook for whatever reason. There was still people making the exact point just last page, whatever that was, page 65. I don't know how people can think it after this big of a sample. Cincy still holding on at #3 in baseball even after playing in COL last weekend. Side note, maybe there is someone we could poach of TBs staff this offseason. They're operating in the same forward thinking mindset we are trying and of course getting great results. Not necessarily pitching coach as I'm sure they'll value him a lot, but maybe analytics people, who knows.
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I'd say no more than tacking on 2-3 years. For price, if it's not at a team friendly number vs normal FA contracts then there isn't really an incentive to do it. For example, Trout just got 35 per and Harper/Machado got in the mid to upper 20s. Arenado lows 30s. So, I guess I'm just saying if you're paying those prices anyway then you might as well wait. You have him for a few more years so what's the rush, might as well make sure injuries or drop off don't happen. If he's willing to tack on a few years in the low to mid 20s then sure might as well look into it.
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That type of thing is just almost never seen in baseball. Creative idea and everything and you'd actually wish more teams did think outside the box like this but it just doesn't really happen. Also, to me the bullpen is the biggest weakness/problem. Offense, there really isn't anything you can do other than upgrade SS. Improved offense vs the 1st half should come organically by Jesus, Huira instead of black hole at 2b, Cain being respectable instead of trash. Basically: LF has been fine. RF obviously amazing, 3B all star, 2B raking now, both 1Bs hitting now, AS at C. 4th OF has been fine. Cain has been showing life, fairly good since ASB and that treatment. Not what he was last year but way better than what he'd been this year. Bullpen has literally one guy we feel comfortable with right now. In general though if they don't turn it around soon, I can get behind the idea of trading Moose since Shaw is showing life in the minors. Talk to Moose and tell him we'll still be interested in talking in offseason.
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Yes I continue to see how we won't get much for our rentals. Yes somehow we have to give up the farm for a rental relief pitcher. Seems counterintuitive...
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Relief Pitching Options
tmwiese55 replied to BrewCrewBlueDevil's topic in Transaction Rumors & Proposals
I also am not terribly high on Dubon. Sure it looks like he'll be a competent MLB player but I don't see any kind of star or "+ player" in him. Essentially on the same level/tier as an Arcia is giving you. It's good to have him as insurance at all IF spots especially as a potential Arcia replacement if he falls off more but my guess is that we would not end up kicking ourselves for letting him go. It's not like I want to trade him or anything, I'd love to have him around and hope he could be more than I'm saying, but you have to give up something in a trade. -
Relief Pitching Options
tmwiese55 replied to BrewCrewBlueDevil's topic in Transaction Rumors & Proposals
Wouldn't be bad to just get it done in one trade. Smith and another SF reliever like Moronta, Watson or maybe even Dyson. They'd immediately become our 2nd and 3rd best RP options. Pushes two to the minors and other guys like Guerra and Claudio (lefty specialist) to their proper roles. I'd think Burnes would be one out to AAA so maybe he can get things fixed and be back for the stretch run close to what he was last year -
Relief Pitching Options
tmwiese55 replied to BrewCrewBlueDevil's topic in Transaction Rumors & Proposals
Yes I think it would be huge to have other reliable guys so Hader can go back to being that bridge guy. -
I think a better stat to figure out is the humans accuracy on what could be considered borderline pitches. That 97% is inflated by extremely easy calls one way or the other. Take outs at 1st as an example. They were probably correct on above 97% too because almost all aren't really close. Maybe a way to get data would be to take balls within one or two ball sizes (I know, phrasing) either way and see the accuracy. I'd guess it's not all that high, probably in the 60s, and I don't blame the umps as it is a very difficult thing to judge, they're doing their best but it would show a large area of improvement that could be made. Most importantly to me, it eliminates the variable and subsequent complaining, whining, and excuses. Plus you'd have to clearly define that if the ball touches the line at all it counts as a strike, or some other definition if preferred.
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I think we've mentioned this before here but Trout is arguably going to be the best player in the history of the game and is probably underrated. I remember getting into an argument with a bartender in Milwaukee about Mike Trout. His position was that Trout was overrated and "not even that good. His numbers don't mean anything, he only plays well when his team is out of it." I couldn't believe what I was hearing as I think he's already one of the best players ever. I mean, in his defense, like half of ESPN talking heads get paid hundreds of thousands of dollars to say the same thing about NBA players and Ringz. To be clear, I of course fully agree with you here.
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As much as it's clear the team is struggling right now. I really think just adding two competent and reliable bullpen arms would make a world of difference. Shouldn't cost too much to do it. You're 2ish games out of the division, you simply can't punt in that situation. I'd be trying to get in front of the deadline and do it now rather than wait until the last day. The extra win or two you get by having a better pen two weeks earlier could be the difference Two more bad weeks and if the Cubs get hot and put you say 7 back, well then yea that changes things.
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I'm still surprised to catch up on this thread and see people still thinking that losing the pitching coach has nothing to do with this.
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It's the contract. He's 34, been declining for a couple years already and is frequently hurt and you owe him about 3/120 mil going into age 37. That's why. Playing one game today, sure you'd want him but it's not that simple. Also, OKC will be lucky to get anything back for him of value. I actually think they'll have to use a 1st or maybe two in order to dump move his salary to someone. Look at how much Houston just had to pay to move while taking back an almost as equally bad/difficult contract. Really the only trade that could've happened is Leuer, Ers, Bled but we already cut Leuer so barring a 3-4 team trade it seems almost impossible for MKE.
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IMO the last two posts are the biggest area that needs to be addressed for the players perspective. One hting that's popped into my head is somde kind of merit based thing to move up arby (possibly FA with it). Something like post season awards to kick start it, MVP, gold gloves, silver slugger, whatever you can come up with, maybe being in top 5 or top 10 of MVP voting, etc. Khris Bryant for example wins MVP in his 2nd year, yea he shouldn't be making 500K anymore.
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While an overhaul to the player pay structure is needed and I agree with. The bigger point here about competitive balance and teams trying to win etc needs to be addressed in cap and revenue sharing structure as well. Any reform to the player system should go hand in hand with team structures to have balance and competitiveness among teams. You can't really put in a rule like players get X amount of revenue when each team is operating on it's own revenue, all the money has to be put in one pot first before it can get divided out and have a real and productive negotiation on how much the players should get. I know others here have laid it out in more detail pretty much exactly what I'm saying, so I guess I'm just saying I agree with them
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Owner says they'll us the banked money to compete. Rebuild end in 2017. Hands out the largest FA contract in team history and increased payroll to what 110ish last year. Next year, signs two FAs for about 30ish mil and ups payroll to 125-130 this year, by far the largest in team history. Seems to me he did exactly what he said. But I guess I'm just crazy and a head in the sand idiot.