tmwiese55

Is that 68% chance of winning with a 1 pt lead with 8 seconds left assuming the other team has the ball? Because that's a huge difference in situations of course. Yes they let you choose that. Yea just quick google shooting percents on crunch time shots. Even the best guys are poor %s. I mentioned that in regards to iso hero ball too, guys shooting contested jumpers vs set Ds is very low %.

If you have a 1 pt lead but the other team the ball with under 10 seconds I'd guess you're around 70%-80% to win. The chances of them scoring isn't great and even if they do you're probably getting a timeout and another shot at it on your end. ETA: Googled a win prob calculator and put it a 1 pt lead with 8 seconds left and it said 68%

Yea, lead taking 3 with under 10 seconds left makes a huge difference on the potential outcome of the game, that's not even debatable. the overall point wasn't that specific shot, but any number of things that could've went different in game 3 to get that W. Any of them happens and you're up 3-0 and possibly done right now.

Let's hope. Even just one or two early 3s could make them step out a bit

And if they don't double Giannis he gets the dunk. Basically, I'd take a wide open shot from anyone over a contested jumper from anyone, including MJ, Kobe or whoever. The hero ball stuff is BS, look how many Kawhi missed just last game. Google clutch shooting stats and look at the %s, iso hero ball is trash. Just have to maintain your normal team offense like prime Spurs and let shot fall where it falls. But yes, of course better shooting from Giannis can only help. And his tension at the FT line late in games needs to improve

I want the wide open guy shooting the shot. Like Steve Kerr, Paxon, Horry, Fisher did to win multiple titles. Of course if Giannis added a shot it would make him better, heck it probably makes him the best ever. But because he's not perfect doesn't mean he's not the best player. I'm just gald they went away with stuff they did last year at crunch time where it was "he's the best guy so throw it iso and shoot a jumper even though you're a bad shooter"

Old versions though. Miller and Korver could barely move by then. But yea I should've probably included "post Ray retiring". Him and JJ are basically the same age, should've been attached at the hip as soon as possible.

Yea if they somehow could get the young Redick in Joe Harris that would be such a good fit. They have a lot of capable shooters on this team but not a true sharpshooter like that. Looks like Harris has 1 year left on his deal at 7ish mil. I've said for years one of LBJs biggest mistakes is not pairing up with JJ Redick. Maybe they don't like each other though, IDK. And I guess you could also say for refusing to give Harris a chance when he was on the Cavs.

Yup. and another injury could easily happen between now and then. My guess is they do plan on Shaw playing in AAA for a bit after he's 'healthy' so this will be somewhat dependant on him doing well there. So I'm just saying that after the 10 days there's likely to be more time to wait and see what happens.

That's fair. However, GSW is less equipped to guard him than Bos and Tor. Their really only big guy defender is Draymond and he's like 6'7. Tor has 3 big bodies plus Kawhi to throw at him. GSW has no big guys and they play wide open court where Giannis feasts.

I'm guessing he didn't have an option either? so keeping him would've meant up all year. I agree he tended to fit the long relief role they like here so I was surprised too but of course never thought anything like this from him. Just thought a decent depth guy. Who knows, maybe expressed a desire to start and they tried to do him a solid.

Because it would incentivize fringe playoff teams to tank to not make the playoffs. It actually used to be this way. Then Orlando got Shaq, almost made the playoffs. Then won the #1 overall pick again the next year (Weber traded for Penny) and everyone thought it was BS so they started weighting it.

Another thing to add to the points above regarding depth. This whole series is games every other day, no more extended breaks. After playing a 7 game series and needing to play all their guys 40 mins this is a huge advantage for MKE

I feel like you mention this every time a team shoots over 40% for a game against the Bucks, and yeah, it's frustrating to watch. But the BUcks went 60-22, have the best defensive rating in the league, went 9-4 against the top 4 teams in the East, swept Houston in two games, went 1-1 vs Golden State, swept Denver.... What they're doing wins games. They win the majority of the time against the best teams. Yes, there are nights when a team gets hot from 3 and they get burned. Over 82 games (or even 7 games) is that sustainable? I'm gonna say "probably not". I mention it every time because it's frustrating as hell. I just want them to defend it. Even if it means a few more points given up in the paint, just defend it half-assed, half the time, is all I'm asking. Ya'll are just missing the bigger pic. In the NBA you can't cover everything, the players are too good. The trade off in this strategy is great interior paint defense vs the most efficient shot in the game, dunks. Second, this strategy is huge for rebounding. This is a big factor in how they went from one of the worst rebounding teams in the league to the best in one year. Third, they allow 3s but try to do it the best way possible in that they don't allow many corner 3s and they are coached properly to know which guys to leave. So they push the %s as much as possible in their favor by trying to have the blah guys shoot instead of Danny Green etc. Again, it s the NBA so you can't stop everything and sometime the best guys are gonna get their shots and sometimes a team will just get lights out and there's nothing you can do. But the idea is that will be very difficult to get hot enough to beat this high paced efficient offense 4/7 games. Long story short, this D strategy has led to the #1 D rating in the league and yet people are complaining.

Might have missed their opportunity with NYY trading for Morales yesterday.

THey have full complete transparency on the lottery now. It's impossible to be rigged. They have media in the room while it's happening to act as a check and balance on everything. They've done all they can to dispel this bs notion with the process they have in place now. Plus, look at this year. Look at Oden/KD going to Sea/Por from the 5 and 7 spots to jump Boston. People just need to give it a rest. One tweak I'd make to the lottery is to actually do the lottery the whole way, not just top 4. So just keep going. This would allow teams to jump from 11 to 6, stuff like that. Helps in two ways, first it creates risk of dropping so a bit of a incentivization on not tanking. Second, it might help some of the middling borderline playoff teams get that extra player that actually makes them legit playoff teams. Take say the Charlotte type team or NO for years here, maybe they get luck and move up from 13th to 6th and get the guy that gets them over the hump. Think of it from this perspective, the best thing for entertainment might be to create more contenders rather than the current situation of usually only like 4 teams with a shot. So trying to find a way to bump those teams up a bit and reward them for trying to win. Plus, it would make the lotto itself for entertaining and dramatic, which I know the nba wants. Heck, maybe there is a way you could do this the whole first round too. So say this years Indiana could move up to like 11th or whatever instead being locked in at 23ish.

Right, that team was playing 37 yr old Craig Counsell instead of bringing up Braun. This year you had Shaw/Moose. Bit of a difference.

Exactly. As Brewers fans we saw Braun immediately kill it so we know that it's possible and might skew expectations, but the reality is that is rare. It certainly can and could happen here but it's probably best to not expect it to happen. I hope he comes up and does so well they can't send him down but I realize there might be some growing pains and I'm not gonna cast him off if he struggles right away.

Braun went 4/9 his first two games with a ding dong. 3/4 in his second game. Of course we can't expect rookies to immediately kill it, but plenty of young guy do come up and make an impact quickly. Hopefully that's the case. Plenty of others also need time, we'll see. Excited to see. If somehow he does do well and gets a lot of starts then what do they do? If he only plays like 5 games and just does blah it's not much of a question.

I actually think Hill was their second best player in that Boston series. Doesn't mean he's 2nd best overall, it's just a small sample where he played great. Plus, all this stuff is tied to each since it's a team. IE, could he play that well if he had to play 35 mins and almost always against the other teams 1sts, things like that. Very likely not, he's in the perfect role right now and he's killing it. 6 months ago his contract situation probably looked way different than now since he's showing the league the exact role he can thrive in as a backup combo G. He's not getting some huge contract again, but a lot of teams will be calling him. Heck, I bet if you took Simmons off Philly and replaced him with Hill they would be a better team than they are now due to the fit with the rest of the team. Just ride it out and hopefully they can win it all. It's going to be a very interesting offseason. Horst has been great so far in heisting these Hill and Niko trades so hopefully he can pull this offseason off too. then he can probably take a breath for a while after an extremely busy first couple years.

I'm very confident in winning this series as long as Giannis is healthy. Probably more confident than I was a month ago in a matchup vs Tor. Just feel stronger after watching these games we're the clearly better team. Still, I have to be rational that they should get at least 2 wins and make it a series. Tor has been the 2nd best team and were consistent all year. Trying to value that over my eye test. Still, with HCA the Bucks should win this and hopefully they don't need 7 games.

Hey, good problem to have especially considering how it all looked 2-3 weeks ago. Just have to remember this stuff tends to sort itself out in that someone else will have an injury between now and then. If not, I'd also guess Anderson would be the one bumped to the pen since they've done it with him before. Of course Woodruff was last year too but I don't think they'd want to mess with him now that he's doing well. Although, later on he might need a short DL stint to save some innings.

The Bucks are something like 172-6 in games Giannis and Hill both play. Obviously that's exaggeration, but the stat is crazy if you look it up. I wanna say it's only 6 losses, could be less though. I think what ya'll are missing in the point isn't that he's saying Hill is some massively awesome superstar player, it's that they don't have backup G if he's not there. Whereas, there is lots of bigs and wings.

Agree. Junior's already being used and didn't throw many pitches. Might as well go with him in the 8th then reassess for the 9th. Hopefully don't need Hader.

Yeah that would've surely been Burnes' inning there had he not been pulled for Gamel. Albers made 1 bad pitch in his 2 hitters faced, so let's not get too carried away crucifying him. Contreras had a great AB and hit a tough pitch for a single, and Bote fouled off a bunch of good pitches until he got an outer half fastball to punch up the middle. Good point. Almost had the K on that AB too but it popped out of the catcher's glove. Who knows, maybe he gets them out from there if Yaz held on. Also, I'd guess th 3 run led to Albers and them gambling a bit so to speak. 1-2 runs maybe they go Junior right away