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tmwiese55

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Everything posted by tmwiese55

  1. tmwiese55
    Yes, my ballpark take is the Cubs got better. Brewers I can accept being projected a few wins less because of the Adames loss and just some general luck/breaks last year. So combine those two and you get to about a coin flip for the division. Not Cubs as massive favorite as in the projections. I'd say generally speaking the things the computers still get wrong or don't accurately weight is bullpens. I'd assume the models kind of make bullpens out to be kind of crapshoots year to year. But certain teams like MKE and CLE consistently pump out new good bullpens every year and not coincidentally they almost always overperform their win projections. Combine that with historically norms being starters are way more important and you see how MKE gets pegged by the computers at 80ish every even though they keep winning around 90. At some point teams like MKE/CLE need to be given credit for whatever they're doing with pitching/bullpens, I just think the computers don't have a good way to factor it yet.
  2. tmwiese55
    Think you missed that they lost Bellinger
  3. tmwiese55
    A guy like Mayo would've been the type of guy I was hoping for in the offseason. Obviously the large Peralta type trade for him is a lot to wrap your head around. I'd hope for a way to get someone like him without giving up someone else who is needed to 'win now' this year. But yea, BAL needs starting pitching.
  4. tmwiese55
    WI high schools have really been pumping out high D1 players the last ten years too. Really squandered it by not having a legit program. I don't know the answer, its basically the only sport at UW that sucks. It seemed this new coach was going on the right track until this year, going up in wins every year and have a legit star player. Then all the drama this year so I assume she'll be gone. Really no answer I see than you have to find the right coach and pump money into it. If vball can be this good there's really no reason bball can't also. Years and years ago they probably should've paid the UWGB coach whatever he needed, but that ship has sailed.
  5. tmwiese55
    Thing is the new owners had to be in on this and the fans know it. So firing the GM doesn't accomplish much, he was just the owners tool to do it. Owners need to fire themselves somehow. Or fans demand Cuban buy it back, heck its probably worth a bit less now than when he sold it due to this disaster.
  6. tmwiese55
    Good post. Yea I'd guess their plan is to think these internals have a chance to be adequate at 3B. And that the rest of the team is so solid that they will be competitive for the division regardless. But if they get to May/June and none of them have performed and/or injuries come in then 3B is the clear trade deadline upgrade target.
  7. tmwiese55
    Yea that's probably why its best to take a step back and avoid knee jerk hot take reactions, which are usually overreactions.
  8. tmwiese55
    I know I wouldn't want Bryce Harper on my team, complete immature headcase
  9. tmwiese55
    Countless players have had incidents of that nature, it happens. Giannis literally attacked Dunleavy one game and tackled him into the crowd over some minor bs. The key Uribe is if he gets his control improved, and yea no more shenanigans.
  10. tmwiese55
    I'm sure I'm way less confident in the internal 3B options than they are, but at that price or 500k-1m more I think I'd have taken the vet presence insurance on the roster. Have to remember injuries are inevitable too, so having a guy like him as a baseline/floor could've helped
  11. tmwiese55
    They made the Finals last year with the same roster. And well who knows if Kyrie injury happens without the trade, big butterfly effect. But I wouldn't say it justifies it, to me it proves why it was dumb to invest in two oft injured 32ish year olds instead of the 25 year old. I do get their point that Kyrie/Luka are kind of redundant to each other and I would be hesitant to be giving Kyrie his upcoming 300 mil contract (before injury), so if I really wanted a shake up I would've tried to trade Kyrie for youth/wings/athleticism etc. Definitely wouldn't have sought another old guy who's oft injured like AD. Or you know, just play it out since you were in the NBA finals 9 months ago with a 25 year old multiple time All NBA player.
  12. tmwiese55
    I would agree this is a better overall team than going into last year. Mostly due to the large increase in reliable SP depth, whereas last year was a crapshoot after Peralta. Essentially the same BP since Devin didn't play. I put no faith in that 3B combo you list and am just hoping for basic "dont be awful" out of the position, so obviously that's a step down from what Adames provided last year. But add in full year Chourio, hopefully 50 more games from Yelich, along with likely slight improvements from Hoskins and other young players like Ortiz, Turang, Mitchell, Frelick and it should come close to balancing Adames loss. And you'd come out ahead if someone like Mitchell really takes off. But like you said, will the luck and chips fall in the right way like they did last year, who knows. Division is better and we got lucky with some pitcher pickups that hit last year, will they do it back to back years? Will injuries playout in an ok way. Adames was very lucky with his HRs being a ton of 3R shots which essentially won games, so can't bank on that again. By no means saying lock to win the division as the Cubs have improved, but I'd definitely take the over on our 82ish win total.
  13. tmwiese55
    I don't know if healthy as I haven't seen anything on him, but technically speaking opening of the season is probably the best time to use up that suspension. Whole roster is fresh, with a built in off day after game 1
  14. tmwiese55
    Someone will go on the DL within a few weeks. Which will free up a spot for him as well as let you retain the other player. In addition, someone more knowledgeable could probably break down the service time and control aspect on him. With how good he looks it is worth factoring in getting another year of control
  15. tmwiese55
    Yea think its fine insurance on Ashby, Hall, Woodruff. Hopefully its not a sign that they're not liking the looks of Wood/Ashby behind the scenes. But I'd guess its more that Hall is already on the DL so why not get insurance at that price if you can't find a good IF to spend the money on instead
  16. tmwiese55
    Of course you can never have enough pitching. But I'd say from purely depth perspective they are in a better spot now than they were going into last year. Remember last year you had Peralta and then all unproven type. Rhea had the good finish the year before but you still didn't know what to expect. This year Peralta, Civale, Cortes, Myers(possible fluke like Rhea last?), then Woodruff. Then your Hall, Ashby types. So 3 generally proven guys, one possible fluky type, then a former ace coming back from injury. Still, no harm in adding another due to Woodruff questions and Hall already being hurt. Of the guys listed I'd go with Turnbull.
  17. tmwiese55
    My guess is the plan or hope is to try and pull of a Burnes/Wood route this year. Where he starts in minors (hopefully improves the control) and then when he's hitting innings issues and/or team wants another arm late in the year he can finish the year in the pen. Then can be a starter next year when they're going to need a lot of new starters. If he ultimately fails at it due to control, then switch him just like they did with Hader for the same reasons. 6 years of cheap control for what should be a great reliever. No need to rush a trade out of fear of value dropping, we'll get plenty of value out of him playing for us.
  18. tmwiese55
    We're one of if not the best team at developing pitchers. We're probably his best chance to make it as a starter.
  19. tmwiese55
    Not sure of their 1B/OF situation but first name that pops in my head is Black.
  20. tmwiese55
    Definitely would've preferred some other routes. And of course shocking they'd be looking at this due to how cheap they are and have no desire to win or spend money. But if CO kicks in at least some salary I'll definitely take this to get a solid proven mid level player with some pop. Fits our emphasis of great defense. Assuming the money gets down ballpark 3/30 its really not that big of a risk.
  21. tmwiese55
    Sorry if this is a repost somehow, think other got deleted in the merge. They did do the Hoskins contract just last year. That seems to be the route we can do to actually spend some money and really there wasn't something like that out there this year at the one position we had open. Bregman got close and hopefully they talked to him, but 40 mil per is ridiculous. Maybe Kim to TB, but can't argue with not wanting to pay high yearly short term when the guy is going to miss like 1/3-1/4th of the first season. I'm still surprised they didn't add some kind of vet to the IF though for a few million. But my guess is its not the money holding that back, its that they think their current guys are better. Though I'd still hope they find someone to add via trade. One I go back to at last deadline is Burger in MIA. In his last year before Arb so still have years of control. Issue is he's bad at 3B D and we value that a ton. But, we'd only need him there for one year then can go to 1B after Hoskins, then we'd be trading him a year or two after if he plays well. He checks a lot of the other boxes we should be looking for in a trade though, but I know D is huge for them so doesn't surprise me. I don't know how strong of a package TX gave for him this offseason and if that's something we'd be comfortable with though. Hopefully someone like that can still be found before the start of the year.
  22. tmwiese55
    So he essentially said he chose to spend more money rather than make the shrewd business/baseball decision to trade their star player. But that he's fine with it or it is what is because he's trying to be entertaining along with winning. And that's being blown up. The Yelich contract is a perfect microcosm of the argument here actually. The "team is cheap and not trying" crowd would've been up in arms if we chose to ride it out and traded him with a year before FA rather than sign him to what was at the time a team friendly deal. When in reality, the correct baseball move to actually "Try to WIN!!!" would've been to do exactly that. And in almost all other major FA and extensions it is the right move to not pay that stupid money as they enter their 30s.
  23. tmwiese55
    Didn't know the potential on this guy until reading this so thanks for the info. Could be a real boost if he lives up to it and at least becomes an adequate stable starting 1B we've been kind of lacking since Fielder. Not asking for all star level, just solid starter with 20-25 hr with ok avg/obp splits. And cheap controlled for 6 years if it happens. Can shift that Hoskins money elsewhere and with the end of yelich's contract getting in sight maybe it provides some financial freedom. Seems they might have to start paying a bit for starting pitching help in the next few years as the stable top three starters are soon to be all gone.
  24. tmwiese55
    Well, I don't know for sure but for round numbers lets say 20 teams get that money due to not being taxpayers (it might actually be more). That's only 7.5 mil per team, which is a drop in the bucket. That's nothing compared to how the other leagues share the revenue by all. Add in a few mil by the other payers and its still not making a dent in the discrepancies. ETA: Quick google looks like 311 mil total split between 21 teams. So about 15 mil per team last year
  25. tmwiese55
    I get that they might have decided already he can't do it, they see more than any of us. But that is the obviously glaring whole we have. One would think he knew that all offseason and put in work at it to try and make the roster. There's also really not much harm in having him focus on it for the next four or so weeks and see how it goes. Could be a real boost if he can be passable there and starts to live up to promising hit tool. Basically just saying all hands on deck to fill that spot. Still will be surprised with how high they value D if he can pull it off considering they had him quit it
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