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tmwiese55

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Everything posted by tmwiese55

  1. tmwiese55
    Yea the team isn't thinking about which spot they're going for. They're simply trying to win as many games as they can and they hope it's enough to win the division, if not they hope it's enough for the WC. It's that simple.
  2. tmwiese55
    Yup, the phrasing you used there I think is much better than saying "relatively good odds". I think earlier you used things a little more definitely positive. In such a small sample it's possible and close percents. What's funny is that this is being tested out right now before our eyes. Have to say I'm not loving the stress of it, haha
  3. tmwiese55
    I'm fine with it, the situation is forcing them to take some risks.
  4. tmwiese55
    Nelson is a 3.5 era. Our bullpen minus Knebel/Swarzak is not close to that number. And my expectations for a Guerra/Garza for two innings would also be below a 3.5 avg. Again, I get this totally 'could' work in such a small sample and that it's all within close %s. But I know which route I'd trust more and it would be Nelson for 7 and then our two solid 8/9 guys.
  5. tmwiese55
    A year that opening day would work out to be on a Thurs/Fri instead of a Monday and we're on the road and still get a Monday opening day, like normal since we're almost always at home to start. 2012 Friday opener was the best setup you can ask, game started at 3 so you don't have to get going super early. Game gets over after rush hour and it's over early on a Friday night so anyone can get home at a reasonable hour and don't have to rush out. Plus it's a Friday so no work the next day. Just our luck though.
  6. tmwiese55
    Sure, but you run the same risk of Jimmy Nelson giving up 3 runs in any given inning even if on the whole he gives up 3 runs in 7 innings (many would say that's basically what you'd expect out of him). Say Garza comes in and throws 2 shutout innings (again, he's fine for the first time around the order). Barnes comes in and gives up 2 runs in an inning, Swarzak gives up 0, Hader goes 2 scoreless, Torres gives up 1 run, Hughes gives up 0, Knebel gives up 0. That's the same thing as Nelson giving up 3 runs over 7 innings and Swarzak/Knebel shutting the door, which I think most would agree is the expected/good scenario out of Nelson. Right, but then you have to roll the dice again and again. It's not like if one gets hit the next one won't, especially if they get handed a mess to deal with on the bases. Don't get me wrong, I totally get what you're saying and it could totally happen, especially just for one or two starts. But I just wouldn't call it likely or as trustworthy as just rolling with the guy who's been solid all year other than like 3 games. Like someone else I think just said, one would guest their approach will be a combo of what you're saying along with normal starting. As in they'll have a normal starter but hopefully have an extremely short rope with them and be ready to go your route if/when needed. The next two days should be very bullpen heavy, but with a day off Thursday it should be ok to use everyone up.
  7. tmwiese55
    Maybe change your phrasing from 'extremely likely' to 'feasible' or 'could easily happen' and I think most would probably generally agree. A bullpen day is a risky day, especially with out bullpen since you're relying on up to 5 guys to not be off and get beat up. In our BP the only guys we'd have any trust in that not happening is Knebel and Swarzak. The rest are hit or miss and you have no idea what you get any day. You have to roll that dice 4-5 times in a BP game rather than just once in a normal game to bridge the gap from starter to the 8/9 guys.
  8. tmwiese55
    One would think a domed stadium to avoid any chance of rainout would be priority. Which is why AZ seems like an option.
  9. tmwiese55
    Since we're doing predictions today. Villar 2B Santana RF Braun Shaw Jesus Pina Broxton Arcia P
  10. tmwiese55

    TJ Watt

    tmwiese55 replied to OnTheBlack's topic in Other Sports

    I think all Packer and Badgers fans were torn. Watt looked really talented in his one year starting for the Badgers, but watching Gunter line up as our top CB last year and getting torched in the NFC Championship game it was hard to question Thompson's logic in filling our biggest need with Rodgers in his prime. . Yup, last season was essentially ruined by the worst defensive backfield probably assembled in the modern era. They had to focus on that glaring need. And knowing they likely would've taken King where they were picking anyway, they were smart to move back 5 spots and still get their guy plus another pick. You don't always want to draft for need, but in this case the need was so glaring beyond a normal weakness that they didn't really have a choice.
  11. tmwiese55
    Great weekend other than Jimmy injury. Not sure if they'll lose another game all year. Tad frustrating we did the dirty work and couldn't get a little help by at least one of STL or COL losing 2/3 over the weekend. Instead both also sweep. Bad luck there, just keeping winning series and they'll be right there at the end. 6 games vs PIt in the next 9 games, would be nice if that team just kind of gave up and we get 5 wins there.
  12. tmwiese55
    We have no idea on the losing respect for Counsell stuff just discussed. For all we know the players will like it that he's loyal to Garza in that they can trust him to be loyal to them as well even if they struggle. Probably best not to go down that Skip Bayless route of hot takes. Still, I think if we had a poll on this thread we'd get a 100% vote on on "anyone but Garza" for who starts next game.
  13. tmwiese55
    I go with Suter in the 4 spot and and then it's their call on Wilkerson/Jungman for the other when needed. I don't know much about Wilkerson's 'stuff', but I guess i'd go with him and just hope that since no one has seen him before that you can get a couple good starts from him. Similar to Jungman's first go around. Either works for me, just please no Garza. He should only pitch if we are getting blown out to eat a few innings. That said, I fully expect them to start Garza.
  14. tmwiese55
    The story on Stanley is that Anderson didn't recruit him because he's a typical dropback QB, not a spread dual threat. Chryst came in and did all he could, gave the full court press but it couldn't make up for the lost ground to Iowa and the kid sticking to his word with Iowa. Look at their depth after Horni, true frosh and redshirt frosh (who really wouldn't be here if his brother wasn't a 5 star recruit). They'd for sure want Stanley at least for the depth and who knows, he could easily be starting right now.
  15. tmwiese55
    Ya'll are taking this way too seriously. I've said it each time, I'm just griping about how lucky they get. It's like you have that friend who always gets lucky on dumb stuff, then when the powerball is at 500 mil you joke that guy will win it. Also, that 2011 team won 90 games. If STL makes they'll need to win at least 85 games so they'll be within 5. 2011 team wasn't that good, what's the old stat for them? That they won the WS without a starting P making it past the 5th inning the whole playoffs? Something like that. That's not a recipe for winning. They had Pujols, yes that is big. And Holliday was still good then. After that they got a freak hot streak out of Freese and resurrected Furcal from the dead for 2 months of a good run from him. I think they only made it in the playoffs by one game after an absolutely epic collapse by Atlanta to let them in. Sure that's a better team than what the current STL looks like and probably is, but if you looked at the 2011 team on Sept 8 how would they have looked. Stuff always falls their way and I'm just making a joke about how lucky they get. That's it. ETA: They were 10.5 out with 32 games to go and a 1.3% of making the playoffs. Largest comeback and collapse ever.
  16. tmwiese55
    I know it isn't related, but on that same guys twitter he has a thing for hard hit ball leaders and Braun is in 2nd. He's having quite the unlucky season, as his K rate isn't THAT bad to offset being 2nd in baseball in hard hit rate. Yea I saw a comment in the bad offense thread saying how awful BRaun has been. Yes, he had that really out of character 10 games or so there in late August with bad ABs and popups. But the 2 weeks before that he's never been hotter and overall he's hit the ball hard all year. That stat totally passes the eye test. I'll post the JSonline article for the 3rd time to hopefully dispel this notion. Granted, this was written right before the weird cold spell with lots of popups from a guy who almost never pops up, so stats would likely be a bit worse now. http://www.jsonline.com/story/sports/mlb/brewers/2017/08/16/notes-hard-hit-balls-dropping-ryan-braun/570475001/
  17. tmwiese55
    Keith Stone nailed it, could probably lock this thread. He's always smooth.
  18. tmwiese55
    You can get this type of play from the Jungmans, Wilkersons, etc of the world for 500K. No reason to keep him at 5Mil. Spend that on bullpen, 1B/2B upgrades, depth guys like Walker. Whatever it might be.
  19. tmwiese55
    Ah if only baseball was that simple and predictable like the NBA. Seems ya'll forgot about 2011. And like I said, I'm mostly just expressing my disdain for the Cardinals and the lucky horseshoe up their rear and joking about it. I know how low of a % chance they have
  20. tmwiese55
    AZ is on freaking fire. They pounded the mighty Dodgers into the dirt. Good thing is: there's still plenty of time for them to cool off before October. Yea just mostly my bitterness to how STL always somehow pulls it out and finds away. They'll probably win the WS
  21. tmwiese55
    Walker as vs RHP 1B instead of Thames could at least help adding a less strikeout prone player. Not sure if they'd be ready to give up on Thames though. Of course the league adjusted to him, hopefully he can plug the leaks for next year. He still gets a ton of walks so if you can at 265/360 with 25ish HRs only playing vs righties he's not too bad of a platoon guy. But if you're getting 220/310 then not so much.
  22. tmwiese55
    I think you just have to go with Villar again since he's finishing strong (as of now). If he crashes at the beginning of next year again then pull up the Dubon's or whoever you see fit and see how they do. Very good chance this year's #1 pick is up by 2019 the way he's hit anyway. If Villar returns to form you're good. If he doesn't you have prospects to try next year and what looks like our best hitting prospect coming just after that. Something will work out with that path. ETA: and if somehow you can get Walker back on a reasonable 2 year deal to backup all IF spots besides SS that would be great too.
  23. tmwiese55
    Stat doesn't surprise me at all with how it's been. I think most of us thought early on that the pitching would end up being their demise, who'd have guess the O. Even with some regression from Thames/Shaw types who started hot we would have thought Braun getting healthy, Villar coming back to life, Broxton/Santana being better would balance that out and they'd have a good O all year. Very surprising it went this way.
  24. tmwiese55
    Just gotta take it series by series. Win 2 of 3 this weekend and go from there. As much as I expected the whole time not to make the playoffs, I'd have still been a bit disappointed but if the Cards swoop in and steal the spot I'll really be mad. I'm sure they'll beat AZ too in the WC gard somehow too
  25. tmwiese55
    Didn't like trying to tempt fate with Garza as soon as they planned. Do what you can to get the W under your belt before going to Chicago. Woodruff has been really good, no reason to fear him in a big game like that.
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