tmwiese55

Speaking of travel, good news on flying. I know you were talking more about being in WI itself, but somewhat relevant. Hopefully this holds true and gets back up by other studies. https://abcnews.go.com/Politics/risk-covid-19-exposure-planes-virtually-nonexistent-masked/story?id=73616599

Yea nice to see them get fleeced in a trade for once. And of course great the Brewers don't have to play this guy for the next 7 years.

Oh right brain fart of top of head, same thing applies. K and SH in both haha. Idea would be put him in TX or GA and he's called a 4 star and chased by the SEC. They don't watch up here though so a guy can fly under the radar easily.

Yea don't see the kind of chatter about Dike very often from UW. Heard if for Cephus and that turned out to be very true. It would make sense being from Oshkosh how he'd fly under the radar in recruiting, hope he makes it. Saw some bars here doing reserve your table type things for the games. Everyone seems to be compliant with the rules but still, 4-5 hours of drinking and people fall into their old ways quickly. And even within the rules you don't need to wear masks at tables so yea I will stay away. I half expected the city to shut it down somehow but haven't heard anything and then with the tavern lawsuit this week probably is what it is. I'm skeptical on the 23ish pt spread. I have a feeling UW type program with the head down no drama type approach is best fit to be prepared in this situation. But the trends in CFB seems to be the offenses are way ahead of the D. With what IL does that could be a problem. That's the logical part of me. Still have a weird feeling they're going to come out well here and the D will be ready.

Kind of surprised they were even trying for hockey. Everything like basketball and softball, volleyball has been ruled out already in Madison, along time ago. was hoping for bowling in January but I doubt that too. I guess if you are still more 'up nort' it's obviously a bit different though. Hopefully you find a way to get some games in. Fairly in depth article here from the JS with a WI tilt to it if you haven't seen it. https://www.jsonline.com/in-depth/news/2020/10/14/america-had-worlds-best-pandemic-response-plan-playbook-why-did-fail-coronavirus-covid-19-timeline/3587922001/

And he has some more quick twitch create your own shot ability than they currently have too. Yea, of course not on the super quick PG type level, bt still a clear improvement. It'll be interesting how they could work it out due to being capped out and he's a RFA. Get him and another shooter, preferably one with some off dribble abilities and you've stepped up a bit. I've been pretty confident in Giannis resigning. Maybe getting a little less optimistic now so I'm going to guess he does a LBJ type 2+1 thing to meet in the middle a bit. He can still play the see I was loyal card but also not be locked in for 5 years just in case.

I'd have assumed most people meant the Fox Valley when saying northern, could easily just be my bias from originally being from there along with the viewing the actual north being so lightly populated. I know there was a mention in an article in the last week or two regarding Dane County hospitalizations where it said they're taking on cases from the valley due to them being close to max. I don't know if there's a way to look that up or if it's being tracked, just remember it mentioned. Might not be happening anymore now since it's gone up everywhere. Just adding that in as it might be relevant on some of what you said there. Interesting idea on the last paragraph too.

Such a small sample though. Can grab all kinds of 20 game stretches where good hitters are bad. Then add in the weirdness of this year. Not a huge deal or anything but I wasn't in the least bit surprised he bounced back or if he's perfectly fine next year.

maybe there's a middle ground with him too. It doesn't have to be rookie level money vs 15/mil per year. And as all teams know this I can't believe anyone is going to give a ridiculous 4/60 type deal. So if others aren't going above 8-10/yr and packers at least get close to it maybe he just says in GB. Logic being he's in a winning team and he's in a situation to keep doing well as opposed to going to some team, doing poorly and getting released (thus not getting the full contract). Heck, he might come out better in GB because barring injury he'll probably do better and play out the contract. But I also get this is his one payday and he has to get all he can, can't blame the guy.

Actually Gurley is another example too. He got resigned by the Rams to a 4/60 deal. And subsequent running backs like Gordon used that as an example as how they should be paid too. When the reality was that contract almost immediately turned out bad for the Rams and proved as an example as to why those RBs shouldn't get those contracts. To the Vikings to 0. Well they did have to convert at least two 4th downs on that drive, one I think 4th and 10 and the other that was the TD and a very difficult play. But yea, I know which way I'd bet vs Wilson. Which is why I think go for it was right, it's over then. Other option is he gets the ball on the 30, making the TD almost the exact same likelihood in people like us who have that vibe that Wilson is always coming through (technically higher since he's 25 yds closer). So then it comes to the 2pt or not. I'd rather just end it right there. 4th and 1s are converted like 2/3 times and they were running just fine.

Great post. Several by others too. I actually just popped back on because I was going to add a similar thing to my last post mentioning how confronting/shaming/forcing isn't likely to change their views. It's going to make them dig in even more as no one like being talked down to or told what to do. Hope your friend comes around though, in all this political divided world right now the biggest thing I think is how/why people want to live their whole life angry all day, reading/listening to stuff to just make them angry. This is what the media feeds off and perpetuates (both sides). Seems she's caught up in that cycle. I have several friends/family in the same cycle but from the opposite side as her. So many people's daily enjoyment would be better if they just turned it off and listened to some music and relaxed, or spaced out watching sports, whatever. Oh and I was going to add that I meant in general taking it seriously, not specific to only masks. Smoking is a great example. It's finally worked to get smoking to it's very low numbers now but it took what, 50 years to get there.

Generally agree with snappers point. It's too late at this point. Once it got all political that faction will not wear one (willingly) because then it means they backed down, are a sheep or lib. Without all the undermining and a divisive leader pushing this viewpoint I wonder how it would've gone. I'd still guess some no matter what, but not to this level. I don't see how we can reign this mindset back in at this point. It's not like if a new president comes in then all of a sudden people are going to galvanize behind, the opposite is more likely to happen. Probably the only thing would've been possible was for Trump at some point to reverse course and embrace taking it all seriously, get his people on board and not feel like they're 'abandoning the team' so to speak. But obviously he's in too deep at this point and can't do that, it would've needed to happen in like May/June, maybe when that southern states spike happened. Of course the early back and forth didn't help either. But something that often seems missed in that convo about Fauci/CDC type people's guidance is once the several days of possible asymptomatic spread came up it made them change their view that everyone should. It was never out of masks not helping/working, it was first that they needed them for healthcare workers and second that as long as people stay at home when sick (and in general) it's not an urgent thing (since they were needed in healthcare) and not likely to make a huge change in numbers. Once the asymptomatic issue came up, it made it more ugent to do right away. Plus it had bought a few weeks by then to get production going on (which of course should've started a month or two earlier but that's besides the point). But of course a change of guidance brought on by new info being learned is spun to mean they're dumb/incompetent/lying and don't know anything.

I'd generally be curious on the math on some of those formulas too. Top of my head guess here we go. First, their odds to win were already so high that it was tough to improve them. The chance for the TD happening also goes up by kicking the FG because Seattle gets 30ish yds more of field position and the chance to run the kick back. Combine that with the slim chance of missing the FG, blocked FG, etc and I see how it could balance out. ETA: what they showed was they were already at 94 going into the play. Making FG keeps them at 94. missing drops to like 80. Getting the 1st goes to 99.9. Also, if you didn't notice the hole to the right was a wide open TD but the RB missed it.

Holt had a proven track record as a competent contact hitter with tons of position flex, and had a team option for next year. Unless there was some personality issues or general not fit to the team going on (based on his track record that would be surprising) I think they should have stuck with him longer. Even if he never really bounced back in the short year you'd still have for cheap next year. You're essentially going to be looking to sign someone just like him anyway.

I'm really not sure how KT is to blame for this, it's the people themselves. I would presume/hope the employee had a mask on, that's really all they can do. What is kwik trip supposed to do, deploy a security force to every store? Good posts peavy. Yes, that's really not what the WHO statement is getting at in my interpretation.

Good post. One thing I thought of in terms of your discussion between deathrates in NY at the beginning vs now to maybe factor in would be the actual case counts in NYC area were probably multiple times higher than the positive test back show. So few people were being tested before mid march and for the heart of that crisis only certain people were tested due to the limited amount. Don't think that contradicts anything you're getting as those trends should still be happening, but it might be something to factor in as well and the %s might not be as drastic of difference.

The very fact that the other side had Wilson is an argument for making it an 8 point game. Now you're kicking off to Seattle with 2 minutes, 1 TO and you can play aggressive on defense in a wet, rainy game. And I don't know how you score a TD down 8 with 4 minutes left to go in the 3rd quarter and NOT try to tie it up. I'd argue trying a QB draw with Cousins was a terrible decision, but the choice to go for it seemed like a no-brainer. I do at least understand the logic in going for it on 4th and 1, but if they'd have kicked it down 2...that would have been baffling to me. I'd beg to differ. Having the elite QB against me would give me the goal of not having that guy have a chance at all. Giving him the ball down 8 doesn't do much to change that. As the math pointed out they showed, kicking the FG didn't change their odds at all. I wouldn't say the going for 2 that early was braindead or awful, nothing drastic like that. But there's an easy logic that it's too that it's too early, wait and see what happens later. I'd probably lean towards going for the 2 as I'm almost always on that side, but I was saying if you're going to nitpick these things that one was probably moreso since it was so early in the game you could've held off and just took your points.

I saw the WHO lockdown thing a few days ago. My take wasn't that they're saying it doesn't work, they're saying we have to find a balance and ways to live without doing it as that's unsustainable for a number of reasons. Things like masks, keeping distance, no big group things like sporting events, proactive or preemptive testing so that we can keep living and economies don't crumble etc. Which I'd generally agree, can't do the April type stuff for a year plus, have to find a middle ground. They're not saying 'eff it just go back to normal its better that way' or saying it wouldn't slow the spread. Got an update on the elementary teacher last night. Currently has 4 kids pulled out due to symptoms and/or parents with failed tests. None of those 4 kids are being tested (or at least to the school's knowledge or requirement) and the kids still in the class aren't being tested. It's essentially a policy of we don't want to know because they don't want to shut down a whole class. How this compares to other schools handling, who knows, but that's the new plan there and this is in the fox valley area smaller town where they're being hammered right now. Seems to be new for them too from what I understood or at least different form the original plan going in. Tough to count or track positive tests in schools when you don't test. Couple other things to recent talks here. a confirmed reinfection in US and so me breakdown of it all: https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/health/2020/10/12/covid-reinfection-virus-can-strike-twice-worse-second-time-nevada-man/5965917002/ Excess deaths stats, I've never really seen this in mainstream media before and most folks I've talked to never heard of, probably has too strong of conclusions drawn in some of the phrasings but the data is interesting: https://www.nbcnews.com/health/health-news/covid-19-pandemic-has-claimed-far-more-lives-reported-study-n1242970

Yea I think the italics is the biggest thing to address. Look how AD is used as the complement to LBJ. That should be the goal with Giannis, and then add in that Giannis is better than AD and all the open court stuff Giannis can do. But it would make half court so much better and less physically demanding on him, plus it might work in the late playoffs which the current way doesn't.

Interesting, thanks. Especially on the egg thing, wasn't aware of that at all. I'd generally agree considering everything these days getting that many to get on board in the kind of 'first wave' would be pretty good. then obviously once they don't see anything bad happen hopefully it goes up more and more. Funny too on the only thing people agree on is something they dislike or something negative. I hated the way Kamala answered that question on the debate. There was a way to make a point there in regards to politicians tinkering with the process/scientists, but I think she failed on it badly and came off as undermining. Curious though on the CDC director comment and what you meant? Seems something like him undermining the public confidence somehow? Last I remember him on the topic he was saying how a vaccine wouldn't be out until spring/summer and then trump rebuked right away that it'll be much quicker.

Gotcha. Well I guess I don't know why if X person can give it to Y person in an individual space such as at grandmas house then why X person wouldn't also be able to give to other people in schools, bars or whatever social settings. But Johnny can't trace it back to such a thing because he doesn't know if anyone there had it. I guess I'm just saying at this point it seems impossible to track such a thing one way or the other to draw too stark a conclusion. I guess for the schools though the explanation could be the safety stuff they have in place is hopefully working and hopefully that info in the article holds true in other studies/data. And of course it would be impossible to limit to 0 so hopefully it keeps it all in check as that info is supporting. Just had a elementary teacher friend Friday have to deal with a kid sent to school for a few days even though parent was sick while waiting for test results, parents test came back positive. People just have to do better than that as now the whole class has to deal with it. If the kid tests positive then quarantine etc. Parents explanation was, 'can't live scared and in fear', hmm wonder where that came from, and now the potential for the other kids to deal with crappy remote teaching for 2 weeks. Man, 2 years seems daunting huh. But I guess thinking about it it makes sense that even once the vaccine starts getting out there we'll still be doing this for a while as it'll take time for enough people to get it and numbers to get lower and lower so we'll have to mask/distance as it happens. Still, I'm hoping for "slowly but surely" gradual progress on that type of stuff. Kind of as if yea we wear masks alot and have more space built into things but at least we're actually stuff. Kind of worried about the next few months with the current uptick and coming colder weather. But hopefully that's the end of the bottom and moves forward from there. We'll see.

Wow, surprising considering their first good season in forever. Like a team did a bunch of offseason splashy type moves and it actually worked for once and the manager gets fired. That said, I've followed them a bit more than I should due to having some pitchers in fantasy and I have certainly come away scratching my head a bunch on pitching decisions. Seems old school in his usage ideas(opposite of TB/MKE), which is bad for results and injuries. This reared it's head at the end of the year for them too, which is probably what got him axed. Still surprised by it, if that was the main issue you'd think that could be nudged along by some analytics talks with him.

Definitely should've went for that 4th and end the game with a guy like Wilson on the other side. if he goes to the wide open hole one hole to the right it's a TD, but he just had straight ahead for the 1st in his mind, which you can't blame him for. If you want to analyze mistakes the one was MN going for 2 with about 4 mins left in the 3rd q when they scored down 8. I thought at the time it was too early for it as there is going to be more scores in the 4th. If they'd taken the 1 pt they could've kicked the FG at the end to go up 9. Another thing I was thinking when it looked like SEA would lose. With no fans would GB really even want homefield in the playoffs and have to play in that cold? My gut went to as long as there was no or very few (like say 5k) fans in Seattle/SF/LA or wherever I think I'd rather play the game in better weather. Problem of course is we have no idea what fan rules will be like 3-4 months from now.

Pretty sure Arizona re-closed bars/restaurants after their big spike around mid summer too. At least they were going to, not sure if someone sued to block it or something. Not sure how that lined up with masks timing.

You mean a coordinate national response would've been good, huh shocker. Going back to before schools issues we spitballed here. What are you guys seeing in terms of the substitute teacher potential shortage/issues? I've seen a few articles pop up recently but who knows how much of that is just kind of confirming what they predicted to seem right. Not to say it wouldn't at least be some kind of problem, just curious from you out there on your experience on it so far?