tmwiese55

Crazy how he's fallen off. I'd have thought he'd have gotten the common Lasik in the offseason that was going to fix everything haha. Maybe he already did though so all he could do was get in the best shape of his life. All kidding aside. It is really odd how this happened and kind of feel bad for him, seemed like a good, well liked guy.

So THAT'S what the Brewers have been doing wrong, they should have been batting Arcia behind Yelich this whole time! Haha. It's shockingly not that far off, that's how bad Pujols is. Pujols had a 672 OPS a couple years ago and a 700 another. In 2017 Arcia was higher than him. Have arcia swing purely for the fences and he could probably get into the low 20s in HRs like Pujols instead of teens.

Pujols OBP and all those type of numbers are atrocious. He maintains RBIs just by batting behind a guy with near .500 OBP. If he wasn't being paid this money he'd have probably hung it up a couple years back. Really the Braun to Yelich comparison is about as close you'll be able to find. It's near perfect actually. To Jack's post there about media ripping it. Sure, they're not wrong in that we all see that's possible too. No one is stupid. But there has to be a middle ground. He's not going to take 20 mil a year and we won't pay 35 mil for the market cost. They met in the middle, seems reasonable. But yea it's funny that the NYY could sign a straight up FA who's 30/31 to a 7-8 year 250 mil deal and they'd gush over it and how they'll win the title. Heck, they traded for a worse deal in Stantons and just gave $325 mil to a player turning 30 (1 less than Yeli would be at FA) this year and it's lauded as a great move.

Possibly the biggest flaw in that was using just Heywards 2019 while ignoring how awful of a hitter he'd been previously. Sure, if Heyward continues to hit respectably like last year he's not too bad. I strongly doubt last year was legit though. Without checking, I want to say it was massively inflated by a hot start and then he went back to his poor hitting, don't hold me to that though. Someone also just said Braun batting leadoff. Is that something that's been said that I missed or just speculation? I've thought that for a bit now as well to as a descent spot for him. Mostly as a way to emphasize pitch selection and OBP to him instead of power/HRs. If that makes sense.

Yea that's pretty much it. Now, they're banking on that again here. As some said, there is a value to keeping the team relevant to fans. Attendance is big here and while they were able to maintain ok during that couple year dip another prolonged bad stretch and next thing you know you could be back to the early 00s. Basically just saying there is a value in kind of just keeping things on the right track. Then add in that Braun's deal will be gone and I think only 1 year left for Cain when this kicks in and teamwise they're OK as well as long as they don't lock in any flopped deals between now and then (hmmm, they weren't so cheap and dumb after all). Braun's HOF I'd probably say he's still slightly out as a HOFer without the PED scandal alone, assuming all the same games missed and all that. But, add in the missed games and take out the thumb injury and I'd probably say he'd have made it. He basically had two years ruined by those things in his prime (and who knows how many HRs the thumb cost him in later years), tack on another 40-50 HRs to his totals and he's probably just over and gets in.

Yea "reasonable" probably seems like a good word. Being around 30 mil per year on the extra is below market value where you did, in theory, see some savings but also not drastically low in the 20s where he'd basically be dumb to take it and it's hugely beneficial to the team. Going into all this, and I probably said here, that it really didn't make sense for the team unless he gave a discount from open market. This probably didn't quite get to what I meant by "discount" but it's close. Then factor in inflation, new CBA unknowns, 6 years instead of 8-9 he'd have gotten in FA and I think you can say this is 'reasonable' and seems about right if you're going to do the extension. It still might prove out that not paying him into his mid 30s would've been the smarter/shrewd move but you have an all time great on your hands, it's just tough to willingly let him go.

First thing would be stop repeating to others how it's BS and spreading falsehoods along the lines of "this is like any other flu, no need to do anything differently". That's the first thing and really my main point. That spread of disinformation hurts people from doing the next things, such as you point out in washing hands. Staying home if you're sick at all. Later things like cancelling sporting events and conferences could happen, closing schools could happen, things like that. It's much easier to do those things if the people involved don't have this attitude. It would be beneficial if you didn't have a large chunk of the population the whole time saying "you guys are nuts, this is all BS" and not listening. For example, as a big Vegas guy they cancelled some conference this week and twitter outrage is purely on the "this is dumb, people are overreacting" type viewpoint rather than accepting that they listened to the advice of medical professionals and shut it down. Read up a bit about what they said how this spread so much in Iran, it's kind of exactly what I'm talking about here. The government and huge chunk of population ignored it all and now they're one of the worst spots. Take it serious, listen to the advice and recommendations, etc. Panicking and locking yourself in the house at this point is an overreaction of course.

I think it would be cool to pull of this regular season title. could be a good way for Gard to go out on top when he gets fired after the year if they lose in the 1st round of the big tourney.

It's missed on the people that continue to say thing like "we're overreacting", "the normal flu is worse", "there is no difference between this and the normal flu", "they hype these things all the time and they never amount to anything", etc. Basically the faction that continue to act like this is all media overblown BS. The several weeks latency is one that specifically makes it different than past hyped viruses like SARS. The other dumb part will be that all the stuff Adam just pointed that is being done will help like it's supposed to and make this not a huge huge thing and people will say "see I was right". I know there's always a faction that has to complain so it is what it is. But you're running the same risk of, as an example, everyone leading up those hurricanes the last few years or Katrina that said "ah this all overblown, this happens all the time and it's no big deal", then boom. I agree with that among people open minded and willing to learn that isn't being missed. But, since I've started digging into this a bit about last Wednesday to now and speaking with people since almost no one I talked to were aware on the higher death rate vs normal flu (they'd heard the 'more likely to die from normal flu thing' and never thought beyond it) and none knew of the several weeks with no symptoms point. Also, "the this isn't happening" line I had was in reference to people agreeing, not that actions by medical people aren't happening. I see the phrasing could've been confusing. I meant that you can't even get everyone to agree to take it seriously, there has to always be a chunk acting like it's all BS and made up, and of course turning it political.

Another difference missed by many trying to downplay all of this is how long it sits without symptoms, thus people are walking around infecting others without knowing. Other recent things that got big publicity like SARS and that other one about 5 years ago you knew right away and could quarantine the people. This issue with this one, in theory, should lead to much wider spread. As you guys have said, mass hysteria and panic does not help. But downplaying this like it's no big deal doesn't help either. Doing all we can to help as few as people as possible get it or die from it seems like something everyone should be able to agree on, but of course that isn't happening.

Saw a tweet yesterday showing all the top 40 times for WRs of the last X amount of years and none of them amounted to anything in the league so far. With how strong Cephus is you have to wonder if he gets slowed down less by the pads than most guys. Certainly didn't look slow out on the field. Really, they should be running in pads if you want this stuff to be more accurate, or do it both ways. Plus, as NE has shown year after year shiftiness/quickness are more important than straight ahead speed. IDK how Cephus matches up on that topic though. Taylor has been saying he expects to get below 4.5, you'd think he knows what he can do so it would be dumb to be saying it. but we'll see I guess.

Even that really wasn't too accurate though if you dug into it. Of the new guys Davison: Yea more or less the same, marginal improvement King: Had clearly improved a lot in spite of a major injury Reavers: Clearly big improvement since his fresh yea. Really wish he didn't have to use his RS Trice/Ford: Scrapheap nothing recruits that, the fact he'd even gotten them to competent high major rotation players was a major accomplishment. Any 'development' issues would be on that 5 person class that basically flopped and led to the large talent gap that he's been dealing with. The new guys since he took over have all basically been fine, it's that class sucking that put them in a big hole.

Agree, Woodruff coming up late-ish is the exact type of guy the current system really harms as he can't hit FA until a late age. As a small market team, the Brewers have to take advantage of that as much as they can. Sucks for him but it's not the Brewers fault, it was negotiated in the CBA. As an example, Jimmy Nelson would've been another one in this same situation and we see what happened there.

They must really like what they see so far this camp and offseason, nice. But, it's also so cheap that it's almost no risk, high reward for the team.

Yea the biggest value he had when we got him is the options. He still has one so I think it makes sense to keep him this year for depth considering how injury prone all of our OFs are in front of him. He's competent on D everywhere, competent to have a good late game AB if needed, and enough if due to injury you need him to start a small chunk of games. Basically, he's not awful and you never know if you might need him. But, yea I could also see doing him a favor if another team says they want him and have an MLB job for him all year.

Right, live sports is one of the few instances where you really need, well, at least where it's really really better if you just have normal cable.

Alrigghtyy then, haha. Hey the sun is out and its like 40 degrees in February in WI on a Friday. Bucks are like 55-7 and baseball is starting tomorrow. Big matchup with Philly tomorrow BTW. ABC national game. Bucks at home favored by 8.5. This is one of those narrative games as I assume this is our last game with Philly, without checking, so if they do well on us again like Christmas there will be chatter about that playoff matchup. Hope Giannis just dookies on them like last game. 8.5 is tough (12 vs Det last night was some of the easiest money I've seen betting), I'd probably go Philly. can maybe even get a big payout on them ML. George Hill being back also can't be ignored, he's going to end up being very important if we can have him healthy for those last few rounds of the playoffs and he shoots this well.

Going off of this one, when casual fans try to lecture hardcore fans about things they know little about. Example: Casual baseball fan telling me payroll doesn't help teams win. I will give you one guess what team he likes. And as a sports nerd type like many here probably are there is a line of also not trying to be know it all, 'correcter', or too preachy to someone who is clearly just not as knowledgeable as nerdy about this stuff. None of it is worth the argument, especially when it's someone who isn't being a bad guy in anyway, he's just a casual observer. When it's someone who is being a know it all jerk type himself while being waaay out of tune with basic knowledge it's tough to not get into it. I remember one years ago with an acquaintance who is a pretentious snobby know it all type on all things. Sports included. This was around the time we had a guy like Axford or Turnbow who would walk so many guys. Alway love the closer who comes in and walks the first guy a huge chunk of the time. I made some casual comment along the lines of how the hits or any HRs wouldn't be such a big deal if they didn't walk so many guys. Really not a big deal. He gets on some rant about how that doesn't matter, it's better to walk than give meatballs etc. I maybe one comment back about I'm sure if you look up the top closers they don't walk people very often at all. He keeps going and I'm just like yup OK dude. Of course I look it up a day or two later and my assumption was correct. If it's just a casual guy Bsing then yea I wouldn't be annoyed at all, when it's someone acting like he knows everything it's tough to bite your tongue. This was pre smart phones to look everything up too. But, I'm sure plenty have said the same about me and plenty of us here haha.

That's fair. I'll try phrase better. What I'm getting is that what we're discussing now should be being discussed after like 3-4 years (or I suppose if they lose before Finals this year is fine) when that happens and that at that point saying he's a couple years away from being fired. At that point it should be like man if he doesn't do something more next year or two we should probably shake it up. Not discuss now with the idea of firing in a couple years. I'm basically saying we're like two years ahead of ourselves in this discussion. Folks are generally way too quick to just want to fire everyone. Only about 16 months ago this team was a .500 team before he came in and changed them to what we are now, but he didn't win a title in the first year and we're already talking about how if he doesn't soon he's gotta get fired. IMO that's a very negative and pessimistic way to look at things, basically immediately going to worst case instead of enjoying the positive you have going on now. But like I said, it's a message board for speculation. And like we've said in other threads us WI sports fans have been beaten down into expecting painful defeats at that point and then the general skepticism that comes with it.

Yes, after 3-4 years it becomes a discussion. You're trying to have it now, after 1 year. I guess I just don't see the reason to be so negative and pessimistic. But yea it's a message board and we're here to speculate. Also, Clippers had CP3 as their best player, clear top 3-5 in the league along with a clear top 10 in Blake. And multiple other borderlines all stars on the team. But, what the Clippers situation shows is that after 4-5 years of not getting over the hump, that teams do shake things up and make some moves, players do too. That will be the first step here if they don't win this year, who messed up in the playoffs and how can we improve the team to make it better so they can win. Obvious example, if Bledsoe clams up again well maybe a shakeup is then needed. As I've been saying, they are not clear cut above everyone else and talent ultimately is the biggest reason for winning the title. They'e going to be dogs to LA due to talent. First step would be what can they do to get more talent for the end of the playoffs.

I didn't say you were, but many do to tie it into what you're getting at. So, take away that Bud supposed negative and you're essentially talking about firing a guy for losing an ECF in a 50/50 series that could've gone either way. That is massively jumping to conclusions, small sample, etc and not how things are done. Whatever, rephrase to one of the two best players ever so it's not debatable. Him or MJ argument can go either way

The Bucks and Raps were even last year. Believe it or not, the nerdy projections stuff had the Raps as the favorite in spite of not having HCA. Micro, year to year, yea specific stuff will happen that isn't 'chance'. Stuff like Bledsoe clamming up, Giannis FTs, etc. But if you put out a team that is roughly 50/50 in any ECF and Finals situation many years in a row then math and odds come into play, eventually things will fall your way. This year, yea, they're much clearly a higher than 50% chance to win the ECF, if they lose it is huge failure (barring injury of course), no doubt about that. And that would be the first major blackmark on Bud. Last year's I guess I'd call a minor one, losing the series is fine but man blowing it after being up 2-0 is bad. Lose in the Finals to two superstar made teams when you're the underdog is what it is, run it back next year. These are not nearly fireable things for someone. People that try to bring up the Bud Atl year are just clueless. They're essentially trying to make ait a negative on his resume that he was able to turn a team of role players into a 60 win team, win two rounds of playoffs, but lose to the GOAT in his prime in the ECF. There is no way that should be a negative.

Well Doc doesn't have a job just somewhere, he still has it there with the Clips after year after year of losing in the 1st or 2nd round with two top 10 players in their prime. Tor did the other route last year and obviously that worked for them. Toronto's path is the rare one. The Bucks situation is actually much different in that they do not have some juggernaut roster assembled of stars, they have 1. If anything that should be giving him more leeway, not less like you're implying. Of course it would be a failure to run it back 4ish times and never get the title. But again, you have the 1 star while the LA teams just put two top 5 guys together. Clips put two top 12ish guys together. But you have a team built here that clearly CAN win it, the logic of keep running it back and eventually the coin flip series will fall your way is perfectly smart and likely the safest and most likely route to a title. You're introducing a big variable that could mess things up in the other route, think of when they added Anthony Mason to a title contending team and it blew it all up. Or let's say Kidd had never been a HC yet and management said hey let's get him, proven champion player, cerebral player, doing well as assistant with LBJ, hey lets get him to get us over the top!! Seems logical right, welp he would mess this all up. I mean yea if they fail 2 more times and Rick Carlisle or or Spoelstra is available then hey give it a shot but chances are something like that isn't going to be out there. Big pic, you know you have a top 5ish coach, the chances of upgrade are very low. BTW, when is Stevens getting fired?

Doc Rivers won a title 12 years ago and consistently has underachieved with loaded rosters ever since with the Clips, often losing first round, and he still has a job and has gotten promotions. It is more likely than that they'd keep him in the scenario mentioned. Possible they could try to change it up, but more than likely there isn't a clear upgrade available and they'd just keep doing what they're doing. Have to remember, this is still not some unbeatable superteam since it's only one superstar. Nothing should be viewed as locks or that you're a bumbling idiot if you don't win, they're more or less on the same level as the top 3-4 teams and those series can go either way. Just like last year, they're a couple breaks/calls or Giannis FTs in that game 3 away from being champs as it is. Doesn't make sense to axe the coach when you have a team and system built that clearly CAN win it all. If you have that going it's not worth the risk of messing it up

I would put the chances of Bud being fired after this year at 0%. If it happens again next year, yea I think some grumblings start. No way this year though. I'd guess if they lose this year the players that clam up in the postseason would be the ones looking to be shuffled around a bit. Obvious guess being Bledsoe.