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tmwiese55

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Everything posted by tmwiese55

  1. tmwiese55
    I guess I wouldn't say you're nuts as it is possible or feasible. But, I'd say you're extremely optimistic that's for sure and make a very bold low chance of hitting prediction. I'll take it, better than the negativity. And in general, I agree with a Burnes bounceback this year.
  2. tmwiese55
    I think I'd probably have taken Castellanos' deal instead of Garcia too. But, that's only 7 mil extra per season, would fans still not be saying the same things they are right now since it's still 20 mil less than last year. But, there is also a very real debate comparing those deals due to the 4 years vs 2 years and that essentially you're paying double for Castellanos due to a 3 month hot streak like he's never had in his career before. I'd guess Grandal was extremely close call for them. But he's a C and not young so those extra years are a real concern, aaaand we don't have a DH for the later years. Lots of the recent posts are very close to my takes at this point. For the Reds comp. If I added correctly, Brewers won about 50 more games over that span. Each made the playoffs 3 times, Reds won 0 playoff series and have missed 6 straight years now. Brewers won 2 and made two NLCS making it to games 6 and 7. Somewhat surprisingly, the 10-15 years prior to 2010 the Reds were more or less just as bad as the Brewers too, I didn't remember them being that poor.
  3. tmwiese55
    I'd say everyone should complete the thought process of what guys they should have signed at or presumably slightly above the deals they signed with elsewhere? Remember, these are not 1 year deals and we don't have a DH. It's very unwise to spend just to spend because "we can't go backwards on payroll" or fans will get mad.
  4. tmwiese55
    Good post Plush. All good and I think your second paragraph there summarizes it well. I think they would be more than willing to have spent a good chunk more this year if the right deal worked out, but it didn't and if you would've signed something to get higher their determination was that it would hurt them later on. So, they went the route they did and left themselves a lot of flex for mid season acquisitions if it comes up and basically a blank slate to work with next offseason to try again. Hopefully in a better buyer's market.
  5. tmwiese55
    I think he locks in the money this year and if it goes south a couple years down the line can just demand a trade. It's going to be very tough to get to a team next offseason that has a better shot at a title than MKE. GSW is probably the only realistic route. But, this team will have to get turned over around him in the next few years. So, if you ride out this team for 2-3 more years and don't get your title and then they struggle to put the next team around. Yea, then make your power play at age 28ish.
  6. tmwiese55
    I think he locks in the money this year and if it goes south a couple years down the line can just demand a trade. It's going to be very tough to get to a team next offseason that has a better shot at a title than MKE. GSW is probably the only realistic route. But, this team will have to get turned over around him in the next few years. So, if you ride out this team for 2-3 more years and don't get your title and then they struggle to put the next team around. Yea, then make your power play at age 28ish.
  7. tmwiese55
    He just did that last year when the opportunities presented themselves. The year before that he handed out the largest FA contract they ever did and traded for a guy on the books for 40-50 mil. Once you splurge you can now never go backwards and need to spend just to spend no matter the years later consequences? What options were out there to spend that money for this year that wouldn't be a big problem in future years? All the good plays got big multi year deals that would a big problem for the Brewers. I think they got killed by this market (in spite of the mass collusion, eye roll) and had to wait for next year and hopefully find some place to spend next year that makes sense. And yes, I do think they're budgeting to make an honest attempt at Yelich that will likely fall through. Good phrasing on your post Seabass.
  8. tmwiese55
    He just did that last year when the opportunities presented themselves. The year before that he handed out the largest FA contract they ever did and traded for a guy on the books for 40-50 mil. Once you splurge you can now never go backwards and need to spend just to spend no matter the years later consequences? What options were out there to spend that money for this year that wouldn't be a big problem in future years? All the good plays got big multi year deals that would a big problem for the Brewers. I think they got killed by this market (in spite of the mass collusion, eye roll) and had to wait for next year and hopefully find some place to spend next year that makes sense. And yes, I do think they're budgeting to make an honest attempt at Yelich that will likely fall through. Good phrasing on your post Seabass.
  9. tmwiese55
    Well said. You'd think he would've built up some goodwill or faith by now. But, many people are happiest complaining, really about anything in life. And the current social media and internet world just allows people to show it more.
  10. tmwiese55
    Well said. You'd think he would've built up some goodwill or faith by now. But, many people are happiest complaining, really about anything in life. And the current social media and internet world just allows people to show it more.
  11. tmwiese55
    As a big business, I'm sure plenty of accounting quirks to cheat taxes. But, I don't see why fans would differentiate to eliminate many of the costs that go into running the team (Spring training, minor leagues, stadium, taxes, interest, etc) and just eliminate them in order to say "no you actually did make money, if you eliminate all those costs". Those costs are real.
  12. tmwiese55
    As a big business, I'm sure plenty of accounting quirks to cheat taxes. But, I don't see why fans would differentiate to eliminate many of the costs that go into running the team (Spring training, minor leagues, stadium, taxes, interest, etc) and just eliminate them in order to say "no you actually did make money, if you eliminate all those costs". Those costs are real.
  13. tmwiese55
    Yup. I get that, I just meant I think he meant bottom line and not to take the term operating to hard/fast in regards to normal accounting terms. Or at least to realize they might be being a bit loose on the terms in order to fit their spin. Agree with your overall view though. It reads to me that it worked just like they said several years ago when they tanked and didn't spend. They'd wait for a go for it time in the future where it made sense to spend, they found that situation with two one year deals for big money, even if it meant they took a small L for the year. And now they go back to kind of baseline and see how things go from here. All the while not having tons of debt so they're fluid for the future, which is what he talked about in that snippet. Overall I think he laid their plan, thinking and logic as to how to compete consistently for many years out fairly clearly in the past and in this talk. IMO, fans should focus their frustration/blame at the systems in place and hopefully they'll finally put in a fair financial system for all teams. Rather than on the owner who's spent more and brought us more winning than anyone could've realistically imagined in say 2002. Just seems like he should've built up some good will at this point instead of being ripped the way he does
  14. tmwiese55
    Yup. I get that, I just meant I think he meant bottom line and not to take the term operating to hard/fast in regards to normal accounting terms. Or at least to realize they might be being a bit loose on the terms in order to fit their spin. Agree with your overall view though. It reads to me that it worked just like they said several years ago when they tanked and didn't spend. They'd wait for a go for it time in the future where it made sense to spend, they found that situation with two one year deals for big money, even if it meant they took a small L for the year. And now they go back to kind of baseline and see how things go from here. All the while not having tons of debt so they're fluid for the future, which is what he talked about in that snippet. Overall I think he laid their plan, thinking and logic as to how to compete consistently for many years out fairly clearly in the past and in this talk. IMO, fans should focus their frustration/blame at the systems in place and hopefully they'll finally put in a fair financial system for all teams. Rather than on the owner who's spent more and brought us more winning than anyone could've realistically imagined in say 2002. Just seems like he should've built up some good will at this point instead of being ripped the way he does
  15. tmwiese55
    Everyone is just going to say he's lying. Guy stands up directly and answers the question and everyone still going to scream that he's lying and still not enough. No way he can win. Sign Rendon for 250 mil but don't sign an ace pitcher and he's still cheaping out. Of course he could be lying or smudging numbers, but the guy stood there and answered the question everyone's been whining about. And like he said, 5th in Ws in his tenure kinda shows maybe they should get some benefit of the doubt. Also, IDK the distinction you're making with operating vs bottom line. I think all he means is bottom line. Of course businesses can maneuver their books in ways though. I wish people had the fervor to care about their state, federal, local, and local school books/budgets as much as they do their baseball team haha.
  16. tmwiese55
    Everyone is just going to say he's lying. Guy stands up directly and answers the question and everyone still going to scream that he's lying and still not enough. No way he can win. Sign Rendon for 250 mil but don't sign an ace pitcher and he's still cheaping out. Of course he could be lying or smudging numbers, but the guy stood there and answered the question everyone's been whining about. And like he said, 5th in Ws in his tenure kinda shows maybe they should get some benefit of the doubt. Also, IDK the distinction you're making with operating vs bottom line. I think all he means is bottom line. Of course businesses can maneuver their books in ways though. I wish people had the fervor to care about their state, federal, local, and local school books/budgets as much as they do their baseball team haha.
  17. tmwiese55
    Count me in on like this signing as well. He seems one that you can pretty much trust to do what he's been doing. Combine him with all the other low cost guys they've picked up and you'd think they'd be able to get at least average production from SS/3B this year. And have lots of options for late game D subs for Keston, Braun, etc. I think someone else just said it too, but this is really a bigger indictment on other teams that you would say are more clear contenders not grabbing this guy as their super sub and backup at multiple spots. But, I'll take him.
  18. tmwiese55
    Count me in on like this signing as well. He seems one that you can pretty much trust to do what he's been doing. Combine him with all the other low cost guys they've picked up and you'd think they'd be able to get at least average production from SS/3B this year. And have lots of options for late game D subs for Keston, Braun, etc. I think someone else just said it too, but this is really a bigger indictment on other teams that you would say are more clear contenders not grabbing this guy as their super sub and backup at multiple spots. But, I'll take him.
  19. tmwiese55
    Burnes threw curves and changes in the minors so he was one I was referencing not being allowed to throw their whole arsenal. Granted, I'm sure those two pitches are weak so I got it when out of the pen. But as a starter you just have to throw them to keep guys off balance. I actually thought his curve looked fine, I mean not something to be 30% of his repertoire but toss up a get me over curve on the first pitch and they're probably just not swinging and you're up 0-1. Kind of like using it as a change up where the hitter doesn't see it coming so they just don't swing. Long story short, you're not gonna survive as a starter with two pitches unless you're absolutely elite like Sheets. You just have to throw them so they can't tee off on your fastballs
  20. tmwiese55
    I hope it's legit. I've said a number of times I hoped he added a change up due to his crazy delivery. But I'm happy with any 3rd pitch being added and hope for the best. If at least one of he and Burnes can live up to their potential in the rotation and the other as a good long reliever (think Burnes 2018, even if a level below that) that would be huge for the pitching staff. Now, let's see if he and others throw more pitches this year. One of my complaints last year was a number of pitchers really only throwing 1-2 pitches when you knew they had more. Burnes included. Hader's resurgence started after he started throwing his slider again instead of FB only, things like that.
  21. tmwiese55
    All good post recently. Just adding that while the tax is helping in some fashion, as someone pointed out. It's still not the same as a real cap in a few ways. First, the obvious that you can just go over, and pay if you want (which leads to the point about whining about owners etc). But beyond that, it's set so high that it only matters to a few teams, which was part of the negotiation keeping it that high. It would need be set much lower to achieve the equivalent affect a real cap would. The powers that be clearly see there is a problems for baseball going forward, thus all the changes they're implementing now. They need to sit down and hash this all out once and for all. They took an incremental step with the tax, now they need to go one or two steps further and get it all sorted out for the good of the game long term. Within this discussion should also be some tweaks to the service time stuff and paying young players (not holding them at cheap rates until they're 31 and past their prime) and minor leaguers more. That could be a tradeoff of some sort for the players agreeing to the cap. Along with all this should come revenue sharing and general opening of the books like other leagues have to do in order share this money. Heck, for all we know the cap could be much higher than we and I just guessed if NYY, Bos, CHC, and LA shared their money like in the other leagues. Maybe the end result would be that the players actually end up making money, but it's spread among all the teams in a better way.
  22. tmwiese55
    Your contention is that underdogs or the lesser teams haven't won in the playoffs? Again, that's just not true. I mean, the big dog just beat the juggernaut this year in the WS. Note, of course I was spitballing an estimate on a % just based on the fact that the underdog team would almost never be less than 40% to win any individual game, outside of occasional matchups vs superior true Ace pitchers. And, I remember Kershaw losing pretty much every big playoff game he's pitched in the last 8ish years. Also, just because a team didn't win doesn't mean they didn't have a 33% (or whatever number you go with) chance of winning. For example, Brewers vs Dodgers 2018, we lost but as large underdogs it sure seemed like a lot closer to 50/50 than some lock the favorite was going to win. Anyone remember those games this year that got headlines when Verlander/Cole and some other aces were starting vs garbage teams like Det/Bal and Hous would be like -450 to win, and they lost. The pro gamblers bet the dogs in those every time and live with the results because no baseball team is ever that big of a dog.
  23. tmwiese55
    That's my take as well. They're going down the NFL road of over regulating things. This fixes a problem that didn't exist. What kills for us is that these rules seem almost targeted at what MKE has done the last 2-3 years.
  24. tmwiese55
    Yes Thurs better than Monday. But the schedule finally aligned for this and they didn't do it, I have no idea why. Best opening day I've been to by far was a Friday game I think in 2012 vs STL. I think it was a 3PM game too so you didn't have to get going super early and obviously then it just goes into the night since it's a weekend. It makes perfect sense. Of course they got smoked in the game since it was vs STL
  25. tmwiese55
    Ringer article on the trade. Obviously they're Boston homers but https://www.theringer.com/mlb/2020/2/13/21135658/mookie-betts-boston-red-sox-trade-los-angeles-dodgers-david-price-math-mythbusting
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