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MrTPlush

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Everything posted by MrTPlush

  1. MrTPlush
    Teams can't use FA dollars as currency much since the prices have gone into orbit so they are using prospects instead. The Nats still got fleeced unless we find out Giolito is a member of the Taliban or is about to have his arm fall off. Or he just isn't as good as some people think.
  2. MrTPlush
    You know something that was also thought at that time? Chris Sale and Adam Eaton weren't going to be traded...so.
  3. MrTPlush
    Thats because such a trade hardly(heck really never) happens. A 4 WAR player with 5 years of control at a dirt cheap price is really rare. The only example I can think of is Edgar Inciarte. The problem is he is only a 2 WAR offensive player while Eaton provides about double the offensive output. Hard to use that trade as a comparable because it was done by you know who so its more a joke/outlier. Everyone kind of assumes elite prospects can only go for elite MLB players. Difference is in that case you are likely only getting 2 years of said player. Nationals get to reap the benefits of Eaton for a half decade.
  4. MrTPlush
    Thinking long term, there's a big difference between getting a little cash from the Rockies to give them a potential long-term asset and doing the same for the Cubs. Unless Sterns really did think that the fact was that Smith was garbage... Go look at Caleb Smith's stats. He had an ERA close to 4 last year in AA and it isn't like his other numbers jump out at you. Older competition also crushed him which probably doesn't make a recipe for success suddenly facing MLB hitters. The biggest problem is the fact he doesn't shut down lefties like one would want. I don't know why the Cubs would even want him honestly. That team is stacked and they aren't going to carry Caleb Smith all year. Actually the chances he even makes it through ST is probably <10%. I wouldn't be surprised if he doesn't even make it to spring training. Lets not get to carried away here. A 100+ win team isn't going to carry a Rule 5 pick all year long that doesn't even look special.
  5. MrTPlush
    Nope, but they can take them into ST and get better looks at them. 1-2 of them will be put on waivers by the end of spring training. I mean sure they could...will they? I really doubt it. Even if they do I am sure one will not last very long.
  6. MrTPlush
    He almost makes me want to watch the NBA...almost. Cool the Bucks have a pair of young players like GA and Jabari.
  7. MrTPlush
    On a different note I actually tend to like WAR valuations on players and prospects in trades. It seems in a lot of cases they match up. Id be curious to see what it would look like in past trades that actually happened. Someone did it for the Eaton trade and the numbers were pretty close when looking at Eaton's value and the prospects value.
  8. MrTPlush
    No, I think we do know. The most accurate is likely Fangraphs which puts his surplus value at $20mil and with eating some salary $40mil would be the utter top of his potential value by looking at the almost Dodgers trade in August. That trade included us eating a bunch of money, getting Puig(say a lesser Top 100 prospect value wise), and then a major prospect we don't know about. Probably not De Leon, but maybe Verdugo/Calhoun. Add together Puig and one of those two, plus some slight value McCarthy had, and that is probably about $40mil value. On the low end you could probably say he has $0 surplus value(possibly hinted by the fact not a single team claimed him in August) and through eating salary we could get surplus value of $20mil or so. In my opinion his surplus value is between $0-$20mil and depending on how much salary we eat his total surplus value can be as high as $40mil.
  9. MrTPlush
    So you admit Eaton's contract, age, and defense are all superior to Braun, and then say you'd rather have Braun. And that's even assuming that Braun's offense won't fall off some in his age 33, 34, 35 seasons, which is probably likely. The first two are just simple facts. The defense argument suggests Eaton is elite if he is RF, subpar if he is in CF. Braun is a subpar LF. If the goal is to win a WS in the next two years, Braun is the better player, hands down. With Adam Eaton you shouldn't have to worry about chronic injuries and/or decline. One can't say the same about Braun. Also if one takes Eaton they free up $10mil+ in payroll space for other moves. You also have the problem that if they were to have gotten Braun instead, Braun would have to play RF(yikes). At which point he is taking away from the value he gives with his offense and we are back to square one with Braun=Eaton value wise on the field. SO with this we would go back to the fact Eaton is less likely to decline, be injured, and $10mil cheaper....one will come to the conclusion Eaton>Braun.
  10. MrTPlush
    A few thoughts: #1 Maybe the Brewers just don't like Diaz that much? Everyone comes out in celebration when Stearns picks up a player about as valuable as a bucket of balls, but the second he lets someone go there are no believers in what he is doing. Weird. #2 Adding onto the fact he would have burned through his options before making it to the MLB roster there is another issue more closely related to his spot on the 40man roster. Think about all the talent we have coming up right now just in AA/AAA that is going to need a 40 man roster spot. A lot of those guys have way higher ceilings than Diaz. Maybe Stearns felt like this was the best chance to keep Diaz off the 40 man roster. If you add him now, yes, the problem has been fixed. However in two years and you need his 40 man spot for a better player your odds of getting him through waivers is very unlikely. I don't think Stearns wanted to waste a 40 man spot on a guy so far away from the majors that probably would have lost it down the road anyway. Option one is probably the most likely. Do you honestly think Stearns gambled he wouldn't be taken? He went #1 in the draft I m sure he knew teams liked him and someone was bound to take him. Stearns and Co. just weren't big fans of Diaz. Not enough to give him a valuable 40 man spot as a player in the low minors.
  11. MrTPlush
    Essentially, yes. I really doubt we actually wanted Caleb Smith and just traded him away for virtually nothing.
  12. MrTPlush
    TMI Did you mean "hear noises(i.e. rumors)"? I like Villar as much as the next guy...but maybe keep those noises private.
  13. MrTPlush
    Well...when the bar is set at a -1.5 dWAR it probably doesn't take much to be better than that. If he can take more than one step each way he is probably better already.
  14. MrTPlush
    The Cubs have shopped Soler a long time. I am sure they know what they could or couldn't get for him. He has no use for them and had to be traded for something that could really help them.
  15. MrTPlush
    I think Jeffress has more value that what you guys are throwing out there(not referring to the Nelson talk). The DUI is a big scare, but he was still amazing last year. Rangers would be pretty stupid to sell low on him.
  16. MrTPlush
    He's posted a pretty high BABIP the past few seasons so I'm accounting for a bit of offensive regression. Maybe a .340ish BABIP is indicative of his true talent level, but I tend to doubt it. And even he does post a few more high BABIPs, it seems that if they stick him in CF that could actually detract from his overall value. Not sure I would call a .330 BABIP high for a player like Adam Eaton. He is the kind of player that can sustain a higher BABIP.
  17. MrTPlush
    The problem with Scooter Gennett is the fact he isn't an easy cut if we can't trade him. Because then DS gets to be that dumb GM who gave a guy $2.5mil and then made him have no spot a week later. It's similar to giving out a big contract and having a $10mil dumpster fire. You keep him around so you don't look like you made a total mistake even though you did. Then again $2.5mil is a pretty minimal number so hopefully they would just cut him and accept it. I will stand by the assumption Stearns was confident he could find a suitor since he seemed pretty set on adding a lefty infielder before they handed Gennett the contract.
  18. MrTPlush
    I'd like to think there has been at least an acceptable offer that isn't completely embarrassing. But that is just a wish.
  19. MrTPlush
    I actually wasn't using it to say Eaton was better offensively. I used it to show Braun's one plus side isn't a huge plus over Eaton. Then when you take all the other things into consideration(all of which Eaton is much more superior in) he is the obvious choice. I did question who was better offensively in the future, but that is only because Braun is very unpredictable moving forward and could decline. Eaton on the other hand is 28 and has put up a consistent 4+ oWAR three years straight so I would expect that at minimum going forward. Plush, don't you know that baseball players only play on offense? Defense, age, contract, etc is all irrelevant. Everybody knows this. Get with the program (I hope my sarcasm is pretty obvious) I honestly feel this argument has nothing to do with numbers and more the fact it is Adam Eaton(an AL player no one here watches) vs. Ryan Braun (golden boy with name recognition). Because honestly trying to argue Ryan Braun is a better player moving forward seems to be a really weak argument. Also to even hint Ryan Braun has a sliver of the value Eaton has is really pushing it.
  20. MrTPlush
    Most of what you said was forward looking. I'm still trying to determine why you think he wasn't worth 6 WAR last year. I think he's probably a 3ish WAR player going forward. Maybe more depending on how his defense is, wherever he ends up playing. It wouldn't surprise me to see him post another 6 WAR; it wouldn't surprise me to see him post a 1 WAR if the bottom falls out of his D in CF. The Nationals, who I assume employee some pretty smart people in their analytics department, seem to tend towards the former. Seems like a bit of a negative prediction when he has posted a 4+ WAR offensively alone. If he falls to 1 WAR he either broke his leg or is swinging a pool noodle. 3 WAR is worst case scenario and only because they stick him in CF which is their own dumb fault. He could be a 5+ WAR player if they kept him at a corner.
  21. MrTPlush
    I actually wasn't using it to say Eaton was better offensively. I used it to show Braun's one plus side isn't a huge plus over Eaton. Then when you take all the other things into consideration(all of which Eaton is much more superior in) he is the obvious choice. I did question who was better offensively in the future, but that is only because Braun is very unpredictable moving forward and could decline. Eaton on the other hand is 28 and has put up a consistent 4+ oWAR three years straight so I would expect that at minimum going forward.
  22. MrTPlush
    He doesn't need to improve at all. His offense averaged 4 WAR in 2014 and 2016. In 2015 his oWAR was 5.4. They are going to lose his defensive value playing a corner if he plays a ton of CF(which always makes me go crazy in trades), but he is still a 4+ WAR player even if his defense grades out as zero. I would have kept him in one of the corners...but what do I know. Honestly I think both of these teams got great value and I would be hard pressed to say anyone won/lost this deal today.
  23. MrTPlush
    Umm...who said anything remotely close to that? That argument doesn't make any sense. You are just trying to make analytics look silly with something that has nothing to do with the topic. WAR isn't calculating future value. It calculates value of that year and only that year. The past three years Eaton has had a WAR of: 5.2, 3.8, and 6.2. The middle year being down due to playing CF. So yah I think it is safe to say he is a 5+ WAR player. To get 5 years of that at a ridiculously cheap price is amazing. What are the odds any of the players in this deal put up a 5 WAR consistently every year? Probably pretty low. I don't know if I would personally trade a guy like Giolito to get a 5 WAR player, but something like a Brinson/Lopez/Dunning would have seemed more in line in my opinion. Nationals probably overpaid, but it wasn't a total overpay like some think. He will be playing CF, so he is more likely to be the middle year WAR guy. Just to drive me more insane than usual, what would Braun and Thornburg have netted? Well that isn't Adam Eaton's fault. Ignoring the fact the Nationals might not have liked either of those guys----In my heartily opinion Reynaldo Lopez/Dane Dunning/Sheldon Neuse? Probably one of those cases where neither can get a Lopez by themselves, but if you package them together you can get the more elite prospect while sacrificing talent outside of him in the deal. Maybe there is potential for another prospect or two, but not anything super notable.
  24. MrTPlush
    OPS+: 119 OPS+: 136 (WINNER) Not really part of the argument(which had to do with WAR), but I have already said Braun (probably) has an edge offensively. Honestly though moving forward I don't know how much I would bet on the aging injury prone Braun over a player in his prime. However that edge is not all that large and is erased quite quickly once defense is accounted for. Adam Eaton is arguably already better than Braun. Add in everything else and you realize why Eaton just brought a haul and the Brewers would have to eat money just to move Braun.
  25. MrTPlush
    Umm...who said anything remotely close to that? That argument doesn't make any sense. You are just trying to make analytics look silly with something that has nothing to do with the topic. WAR isn't calculating future value. It calculates value of that year and only that year. The past three years Eaton has had a WAR of: 5.2, 3.8, and 6.2. The middle year being down due to playing CF. So yah I think it is safe to say he is a 5+ WAR player. To get 5 years of that at a ridiculously cheap price is amazing. What are the odds any of the players in this deal put up a 5 WAR consistently every year? Probably pretty low. I don't know if I would personally trade a guy like Giolito to get a 5 WAR player, but something like a Brinson/Lopez/Dunning would have seemed more in line in my opinion. Nationals probably overpaid, but it wasn't a total overpay like some think.
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