I'm not sure I would label our offense as being able to score points. We haven't been terrible lately, but not like we are really lighting the word on fire. The Bucs offense is absolutely terrible, Tom Brady in the postseason or not. The Cowboys can score, but I can't imagine being all that confident in them not blowing their chances per usual.
Not saying Purdy is great, but we once lost the conference championship to a guy throwing 8 passes. This is the kind of year I would just want the elite defense. Brady is not scary at this point, Rodgers isn't scary, Dak is Dak, and I have little confidence Cousins has any shot to carry that team multiple games like he would need to.
Right now the odd are Eagles then Cowboys...then a massive drop off to the Cowboys/Vikings. Seems about right.