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MKE81

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Everything posted by MKE81

  1. What serious doubts do you have that Santana can be an everyday corner OF? He's already an upgrade defensively over Davis and at 21 and 22 he had VERY GOOD numbers in AAA. He was horrendous in his brief stint with the Astros in 2014 and last year he bounced back when called up with both teams. He's an immediate upgrade overall over Davis and 5yrs younger. I don't think Davis will ever hit 40HR. He'll more than likely cap out in the 30-35HR range if given 500+ ABs. Santana can hit 20-25HR so it's not a massive step backwards in that department either. The OF, and team, just got better with this trade. Nottingham is projected as an average-above average defensive catcher. Coulter clearly wasn't that as he transitioned to the OF rather quickly so you can cherry pick your stats to defend your stance all day (ie passed ball numbers). Reality is this trade isn't going to blow up in his face. Not only did this organization get a strong catching prospect (who could transition to 1b depending on that situation in the future) who's 2-3yrs away but also a young pitcher who could turn into a solid back end starter or long reliever AND it clears a spot for Santana to start and get the experience he needs that will only benefit him and the team moving forward when everybody else starts coming up this year or next.
  2. This marketing video was extremely smart and very well pieced together. This should be the video even if Braun, Lucroy were here the rest of their careers with no trade talk. You don't need to market specific key players - it's about relating to the love and excitement of Brewers baseball and, more specifically, baseball in general. And everything that goes along with that (tailgating, hanging out with family/friends, watching the game at sports bars, etc). Which, of course, fits perfectly given the current state of the team this season as all the prospects aren't up until the very end of the year or 2017. LOVED the "it's not a bandwagon we jumped on when it's convenient" line. MONEY
  3. Lucroy will be traded at some point. I prefer before the season (ideally before ST) but if he's not traded until the break or even next off-season then not a problem as he's a productive player on both sides of the ball. I'm more focused on when Davis will be traded given our log jam on the corner OF spots as Santana needs to play and ideally not play CF because that's not where he'll be long-term
  4. Agree Phillips is CF of future but if Santana shows he can handle it in ST he's starting there opening day with Liriano/Broxton backing up all 3 positions. When Davis is traded Santana shifts to RF with Braun back in LF then Liriano most likely takes over CF with Broxton filling in as well while both still backing up other spots. I think this is the direction they're headed and will change course depending on ST performance and what they're comfortable with. Santana has outperformed Liriano/Broxton at every level (outside of SBs) and should be starting without question. I prefer Santana not play CF but until Davis is traded he needs to be there only because he needs to play every day
  5. I think you're going to be devastated when Perez isn't on the major league club. There was a reason for his removal from the 40 man. Going to take superb play, some other guys to horribly suck and a possible injury for him to be in the show again. Given that Perez was stated to be on the short list of potential backups to Villar at shortstop, I'd say he has a pretty good shot if another shortstop isn't acquired. He was much better than Elmore last season, so all it would really take is the Brewers deciding to keep Yadiel Rivera in the minor leagues to start the season. At this point it really looks like Rivera vs. Perez (pick one) and Hill vs. Walsh vs. Middlebrooks (pick two, with one starting at third) for the backup infield spots. What I hope happens - Villar will eventually be a super utility who brings an array of tools to that spot so he's valuable. After Scooter is traded it'll be Villar/Hill at 2b and 3b (both will get PT at each position) and a natural and cheap SS will be acquired. Villar can then also backup SS. Walsh can backup 2b/3b. Perez is below average and I don't think he makes the team. Middlebrooks also is below average but he at least has power and can backup both corner spots. They say Rivera has a shot at making the roster but I'd keep him in AAA at 2b unless you're not planning on him being part of the future - then you might want him to play SS at the highest level, hoping he performs then you trade him as a young, slick fielding SS (who can also play 2b)
  6. Who are you talking about? Are talking about the guy who has been pretty lack luster in nearly 1,000 AAA at-bats. I get that he is still on the young side, but that many at-bats at one level you should see improvement not a guy fighting to keep his line over .200/.300/.550 Penciling him as anything on a MLB roster at this point is a bit extreme. Except you're lumping in a decent 2014 AAA season with a horrendous one. And 238/318/646 isn't fighting to stay above 200/300/550 - he's clearly over it, not straddling it. He's had one awful year and the other was pretty decent. And by decent I mean his 263/341/712 would have ranked him 14th in BA, 7th in OBP and 18th in OPS during the 2015 MLB season. This year will clearly be a telling season for him given he's going back to the approach that gave him great success. I agree he shouldn't even be thought about for the MLB roster unless it's late in the season and he's had a strong year. He's an interesting potential candidate for 3b starting in 2017 though (at this time). But Stearns isn't going to bank on him returning to form - he'll still find a 3b to compete. I also find it funny someone else said he hasn't done anything above A ball outside of take walks in AA. Because that 296/420/825 AA line is solely a result of taking walks!! He followed that up with 277/434/772 in AFL. I'm sure most people would gladly take a 280/400/770 player at 3b
  7. I believe you are correct, Roger
  8. Love it when people say Lucroy is "just being honest". If I told my peers and manager in the office tomorrow that I thought they were all garbage performers and our team's production sucks and I'm going to look for a new job with a better company/culture how well would that go over? but hey, I was just being honest. Lucroy is looking to make bank and will only do so with a trade hence his comments publicly. If he had a 5yr extension already in place he'd be a happy camper mentoring the young fellas coming through soon. I have no issues with his mind set - it's how and what he says I have an issue with. Like all jobs, the strong performers will always have/find a job where their comp grows
  9. It's extremely difficult to say WHEN especially given nobody has any idea what the roster will look like in 2018. If all goes to plan you're looking at Braun, Phillips, Santana, Arcia as guaranteed starters. Cecchini is a potential. Have no 1b or C and nobody knows who will be at 2b (Rivera, Walsh, Villar, external?). SP looking at Nelson, Lopez, Hader, Davies? but will definitely be different than this year. Bullpen has been strong recently and is still trending that way. With the amount of moves Stearns has already made and will continue to make within the next 1-2 months and throughout this season and next it's impossible to predict. 2017 will definitely be fun to watch even if they're not a 500 team. They have the talent to be so even being very young. Mix in some veterans via FA (ideally one top of the rotation guy for sure and 1-2 position players) and you very well could be looking at a potential sneak into the playoffs in 2018
  10. I don't think Scooter is close to having a natural .300 hit tool as he's strictly a platoon player and that type of player can't be classified as such. He's an inconsistent hitter - has only hit .300+ three months over the past 2yrs and is usually under 277. He's an avg defender. He needs to be traded; not platooned. Hill might have been deemed unfit to play SS 10yrs ago but that doesn't mean he can't fill in for Villar a half dozen times, especially since we're not competing for the division this year. Hill played 3b 48 games the past 2yrs (38 last year) and previously didn't touch that position since 2005. Just because a player hasn't played a position regularly in a long time doesn't mean they're not capable of filling in during a pinch. Stearns said Villar is the primary option for SS therefore it's pointless burying Rivera on the bench as a backup. If Scooter is traded and Rivera is thought of as the primary option at 2b with Hill at 3b then great as Rivera can fill in for Villar at SS on nights off with Hill/Walsh filling in at 2b and Middlebrooks or Perez or Walsh at 3b. Middlebrooks could also fill in at 1b when needed too if/when Lucroy isn't on the team. There's clearly a lot of moving parts and options. But I don't understand Rivera being part of this team if he's not playing regularly. And I agree Walsh needs to get some PT and it would suck to lose him. I think Stearns nets a veteran SS to be the primary player there with Villar sliding to 2b (agree he profiles better there and should be there with Scooter hopefully being traded). Carter, Villar, veteran SS, Hill with Middlebrooks or Perez + Walsh on bench covering all spots. Villar slides over to SS giving the veteran an off night.
  11. If the plan is to have Villar start at SS while not platooning he'll only need 5-10 games off in the first half. Hill hasn't played there in 5yrs but he can fill in for those and the team would be fine and he'll most likely be flipped by the break anyway. He can also fill in at 3b while Middlebrooks fills in at 1b (especially if Lucroy is traded since he's the main backup at 1b). I'm not a fan of having Rivera on the MLB roster if he's going to be buried on the bench not playing somewhat regularly. It makes even more sense if Scooter is traded leaving Villar, Walsh, Rivera to cover Middle IF as they'll all get plenty of PT. A veteran can be had for cheap if needed for the 2nd half as an additional backup IF depending on how the roster shapes out after trades
  12. To me, it would make sense to go with 1B Carter 2B Gennett SS Villar 3B Cecchini IF Walsh IF Hill I don't see why we need both Cecchini and Middlebrooks on the major-league roster. Keep in mind Walsh can play OF too, so even if Counsell wants Rivera on the bench, Walsh could take the 5th OF spot as a utility OF/IF. Agree only one should be on MLB roster but based on Cecchini's AAA season last year I think it makes the most sense to have him start back there given his approach needs to be changed back to what it was and he might need just a little time to figure that back out. In the meantime Middlebrooks, who sucks, can sit at 3b with Hill filling in for him and Villar (even though he's mainly been a 2b he'll be used as a utility). I'd keep Rivera in AAA otherwise he's pretty much making the jump from AA to MLB as he didn't perform too well in AAA last year. If there's an injury then bring him up as hell at least play defense. Plus, if Villar is getting a lot of PT at SS then why bury Rivera on bench when already have Walsh and Hill.
  13. According to baseball reference Hill last played short since.2006 so I wouldn't count on him playing there for the Brewers. Thanks. Didn't realize it was that long ago. Someone ring the doorbell of Royce Clayton
  14. I liked Wagner but I can't see his stuff transitioning well at the MLB level to be anything more than a 5. Chase is an experienced, slightly better Wagner to me. I also don't understand people saying Villar starts at SS. I see Hill there and if he comes out swinging he's gone for prospects then Villar can take over. I know his salary isn't an issue but dropping him or putting him on the bench does nothin for his trade value to a playoff team looking to add a utility guy for not a ton of money since half is covered
  15. If you have to package Lucroy with another good player in order to land Gallo in a package then do it. Gallo/Cecchini corner IF of future don't care who plays where. Make it happen
  16. Please go back and see what Cecchini hit at those levels at a similar age. .322/.443/.471/.915. 47 extra base hits 23 SB's 94 BB to 86 K. Also Cecchini can field both 1B & 3B. Moreover, he is not a liability in in the field. Is he going to win ton of Gold Gloves, no. But, he is not going to hurt you or be a liability either. So please explain to me how he can't hit or field when clearly at the same levels and age, the major difference is Cecchini walks a ton more, Mancini hits for more HR power. http://www.overthemonster.com/2014/3/5/5473208/garin-cecchini-and-the-importance-of-the-hit-tool Boston was in love with his bat until he had his struggles in 2015. His hit tool and ability to walk were considered top of the line. Cecchini had great numbers 3 years ago, but Mancini did it last year and his numbers got better after going from advanced A to AA while Cecchini's regressed after he was promoted to AA that year and regressed further the next two seasons. Cecchini's walk rate was incredibly good up until 2014 and 2015 when they were simply decent. But he's never had the power you need at corner IF spots. Lol at Cecchini not being able to hit. His numbers regressed after promoted to AA?? Yeah, he regressed to 296/420 with 825 OPS followed by 277/434 in AFL at age 22. That's not a negative. A negative would be Mancini's drop in production in 2014 from A to A+ (251/295 with 691 OPS) then he changed his mechanics. feel free to leave that part out though and cherry pick for comparison purposes. Cecchini had a pretty decent 2014 at age 23 in first full season at AAA and it continued into his MLB stint that year where his OPS was 100pts higher at 813 (Mancini was starting in A+ at that same age). He had an awful 2015 because his approach changed due to trying to add power. That will affect your walk rate too. Only 11 MLB 3b hit more than 18 HR last year and, if Cecchini can get back to his old approach he's very capable of 290/370, which would rank him top 1-2 in BA/OBP last year while finishing top 10 in doubles too (low-mid 30s). And you don't "need" power at 3b to be productive (i.e. Cirillo). Even with Cecchini's brutal 2015 season his career OBP is still 16pts higher than Mancini
  17. Don't forget about Broxton... Excellent acquisition of Liriano. I agree about Broxton as people seem to be forgetting about him. I personally favor Broxton for starting in CF at this point given he's a true defender there and also offers some pop and speed. But both these guys getting playing time would be great in addition to having Flores as a backup as well. I'm assuming they'd roll with 5 OF since Villar and Walsh can handle multiple positions in IF off bench while still getting plenty of playing time (figuring Middlebrooks, Segura, Scooter, Carter starting at this point although Middlebrooks might not make the team while the starting middle IF might eventually be traded). This team might only win 70 games but they'll be interesting to watch
  18. That is a stretch. You are imputing your logic on another person. Logically, he shouldn't take peds, but logically people shouldn't take drugs, smoke, etc, etc. I don't think a team can assume he will stay clean the rest of his contract, so that will decrease (not eliminate) his value. Understood. But I think teams can absolutely assume he'll stay clean. STL assumes Peralta will stay clean. Same with Seattle and Cruz, etc etc. It's been 2yrs+ and they're all still productive therefore one can assume they'll continue that route moving forward. I understand the injury/age concern toward Braun and acquiring his contract but not so much on the PED front. These guys made a poor decision and have paid the price. But that's just me...
  19. When??? Haudricourt said this recently: Truth be told, the Brewers would not hesitate to move Braun and his five-year, $105 million contract extension that kicks in next year if a sensible offer surfaced. The baggage accumulated in recent years with his PED scandal and health issues, as well as significant no-trade protection in his contract, make a trade unlikely at this point, however. http://www.jsonline.com/sports/brewers/what-the-brewers-starting-lineup-would-look-like-if-opening-day-were-tomorrow-b99647430z1-364593341.html There have been some other things - mostly tweets from various sportswriters about the fact that there's not a lot of interest in Braun at this time. It should be noted that Haudricourt's article caused other sources to basically report the same thing - that the team would move him if they could. It will always boggle my mind that teams arent interested in players because of PEDs - I'd understand a multiple time offender where they're out of baseball the next one but someone as talented as Braun whose contract will be a steal in a year or so if he's getting 500+ ABs, who will definitely not risk take anything the rest of his career. MLB = Entertainment industry. If a player like this can help you win then you go get him. But not in MLB because they have "morals" and "ethics"....even though they actually don't. You can put the 9 biggest [expletive deleted by moderator] on the field and if they're winning and bring a championship the stadium will be packed every game
  20. Good question. I still don't think so as Davis isn't a Stearns type player he's building an organization with. I see Braun as DH with someone like Reed in LF (eventually Trent Clark) given his solid defense/arm, speed, high OBP and contact
  21. If a GM is signing two players like this to make one player happy then that GM should be fired immediately. Broxton is an intriguing prospect who could turn into a viable trading chip or quality 4th OF. Middlebrooks/Villar at 3b is fine for this year. I can't see why Stearns would sign all these guys + Kirk, EY when Alvarez and Jackson were options at that time. I could see this making sense if he has potential trades lined up (i.e. Segura or Scooter so Villar shifts to a full time spot leaving just Middlebrooks/Perez then). That way Alvarez could work in at 3b and backup at 1b while DH in interleague games. Jackson I just don't see the point of it given you'd bury Broxton on the bench since there's already plenty of talent in OF at AAA plus if someone is traded (i.e. Davis) that would open a spot for Santana, who currently doesn't have one. A lot of things would need to happen for these to even make sense. I'm partial to letting the young guys play as neither of these signings would return a Davies type from Parra trade
  22. Phillips is the CF of future starting late 2016 at earliest. That's all you need to know for ranking them!!
  23. It's annoying watching pitchers attempt to it. It's an automatic inning+ worth of outs before the game even starts. And it's not really strategy involving that spot, more common sense the majority of the game. If a starter averages 6ip he's either bunting with guys on base or looking foolish swinging when bases are empty or with 2 outs. Then after the 6ip it's an auto pinch hitter that's usually an easy decision. Maybe once per game is there a strategic move (double switch, etc). Whereas with a DH it's a guaranteed strategic move with the lineup before the game even begins - bat worst hitter last or have a leadoff type bat 9 and be the leadoff for the top of the order. I also like that guys can take a game or two off from playing the field but still contribute offensively - can use the DH as a revolving door instead of simply having one guy hitting every game who can't field to save his life. I prefer both leagues be the same and that's means having a DH
  24. Actually, I don't believe the mind set is "tank and rebuild". This is a cultural transformation and with that requires drastic changes to the current structure. This doesn't mean it's a "tank job" mind set. It means the org now values defense, contact/getting on base/understanding the strike zone, intelligence, versatility and such - things the org didn't value previously. In order to thrive within this changing culture it requires trading away pieces that don't align with this philosophy in combination with evaluating current MLB player contracts/age/etc and how they fit within this shift long-term (ie Lucroy is about to be a 30yr old catcher with 2yrs remaining so he'll be traded - also has value). In order to accomplish this Stearns is doing what he should be doing - acquiring young, controllable talent. With that comes players with limited MLB experience but a skill set that can potentially translate well and contribute to competing and winning in a new mold from years prior. Now, while the team might only win 65 games in 2016 that doesn't mean it's an intentional "let's put junk on the field so we get high draft picks for a couple years". The strategy is, while we might take one step backwards we'll take several steps forward relatively quickly thereafter given the cultural shift and, in doing so, we're going to give young talent every chance to prove they belong on this team moving forward regardless of what that role is (ie Villar, Broxton, Walsh, Carter, etc) or if they break out they're now traded/packaged for younger talent. If this strategy stays consistent over Stearns' tenure then it's not a "rebuild". It's a transformation. I believe Lucroy, and others, have said this "rebuild" is around 3-5yrs area. Meaning there will be 3-5yrs of losing. I don't believe this at all. In 2017, barring injury and massive setbacks performance wise this year, the Brewers are looking at sizable upgrades on both sides of the ball at SS, CF, 3b (if Cecchini gets back to his earlier approach) and most likely 2b. Personally, I'd include Santana as a sizable upgrade over Davis if he can continue the path of success he's had the previous 2yrs in AAA, even if he hits 10HR+ fewer. 1b and C we have no idea about. That's guaranteed 4-5 position spots + Braun heading into next season. Now add in Lopez, Hader as they should be upgrades over two SPs in the rotation as well. The bullpen has a few strong arms coming in 2017 too. And this doesn't even include anybody in return from Lucroy, Davis, etc trades or other FA signings. This team can be in pretty good shape heading into 2017 and definitely the following year after these guys get a full season of play at the MLB level. They'll be exciting to watch
  25. Brewers don't need a SP. They need Garza to be white hot for a couple months then trade him. Still leaves Nelson, Peralta, Jungmann, Davies + Thornburg/Pena (Cravy sucks but he can eat innings if need be as well as Burgos - neither are part of the future rotation anyway). Lopez, Hader will be eating up spots in the rotation soon enough and potentially Wagner.
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