MKE81

Cool, they pegged the Brewers with 71 wins last year - just like plenty of people on this board who haven't created analytical models. Villar: .730 OPS, 1 WAR (so his OPS is dropping 20pts below what he did in 2015, which negates his massive improvement in 2016) Broxton: .682 OPS, 1 WAR (Maldy put up 683 OPS this year - Broxton elevated his game after dropping his hands, that adjustment can be critical) Braun: .837 OPS, 1.9 WAR (no. just no. he's done that once in his career and he was injured) Thames: .626 OPS, -1.8 WAR (so he's -2 WAR below Carter while being better defensively? an OPS 60pts below Maldy lol. Thames has a 727 OPS overall (769/672) when he was 24-25 in MLB and he's a better hitter/state of mind now) Shaw: .741 OPS, 1.1 WAR (maybe but i think more 770+) Susac: .707 OPS, 0.9 WAR (disagree unless he's injured. his 666 OPS in 2015 he played the entire year with a wrist injury, and thumb injury too part of that, and ended up missing the final month+ on season ending DL because of it. if healthy it should be 770+) Arcia: .666 OPS, 0.3 WAR (no idea given he's 22 and we'll see how he progresses) Santana: .787 OPS, 0.9 WAR (his OPS essentially means he shows no improvement as a hitter even though he showed improvement from the beginning of the year, when healthy to the end when healthy) Why is there a discussion over projection vs prediction. A projection is a forecast of a trend. On what planet do some of these projections make sense based on the definition of projection?

Agree. At least speaking for me, I'm not offended because I can count the number of times on one hand that I'm on FanGraphs annually. Each team, like each large company, has their own in-house analytics and interpretation of that data. GMs aren't making decisions based on FanGraphs WAR, etc metrics because anybody on this planet with access to the internet can make the same decisions they do then. I just find it hilarious some of the metrics that FanGraphs spits out

He was referring to this offseason alone. I could be wrong but that's not how I read it. Him stating that, present day, he expects Braun to be here in 2017 and "moving forward". I take that as him speaking beyond this off-season and season. Regardless, I think we can all agree that there's always a chance any player is moved regardless of what obstacles may be present or arise

Braun has performed at an AS level every year of his career except 2014 when he had multiple injuries he was playing through, later on having surgery for both. As long as he doesn't have an injury to that extent you pretty much know what numbers he's putting up. Players of his caliber don't fall off a cliff once they hit mid-30s. He's still in great shape and will continue to be in great shape. There's a mutual option with 4M buy out in the 5th year so I'm only looking at his deal from a 4yr perspective. Relatively healthy he's performing at a high level over his contract and allows for a stable hitter in the 3 hole to surround the young kids around. Agree, JosephC, Braun's LF defense isn't close to being as bad as what the typical person or metrics say. He's always been average to above average in LF. Additionally, his Steamer projection for next year is downright comical. Projecting him to put up numbers he's never put up his entire career outside of his injury riddled 2014 - projections significantly worse than his past season, in which he was healthy. WAR is completely useless to begin with but a projection of 1.7 compared to his past 2yrs of 2.9/3.2 is nonsense. 18th and 21st in MLB (overall) in wOBA/wRC+ but 58th in WAR - yeah, ok. Khris Davis is a half run behind Braun in WAR? Davis - who covers less ground in the OF, has a worst arm by far, is worse on the bases, has a worse hit tool but has more power (and we're talking 40HR vs 30HR not 40HR vs 20HR). And he's .5 WAR behind Braun. My stomach hurts from laughing. Braun's been here 10yrs. He has established roots to a certain extent (ie he doesn't live here year round but is here plenty). He's never been your typical athlete in the sense he's always loved the city and the org he was drafted by and even signed that 7yr deal for much cheaper than what his performance commanded. His local investments being off the table since PEDs has nothing to do with anything. He'll make 130M+ as a player when his career is over. He's still involved in the community. While Braun comes across as west coast, Milw or bust for locations - things can change and change quickly. He's intelligent. He'll analyze every situation from every perspective to determine what's the best decision for him, as a player, and his family. His profession is such where relocation is extremely common. While I was cool with the Dodgers deal (and getting prospects to bolster the already great system) I'm a huge fan of Braun staying put for his career, especially if we're competing for the playoffs in 2019-2021. I see his trade situation as somewhat similar to one aspect of Lucroy's but obviously Lucroy had half the control. There's been conversations regarding acquiring him but teams are clearly not offering what Stearns deems acceptable for his talent/contract, which is why Lucroy wasn't dealt before the season. When/IF that happens Braun will be moved. Regarding Stearns comments, I actually disagree with his second line for the simple fact that he has 4-5yrs remaining on his contract. Nobody has any idea how injuries will plague a team that aligns as a trade partner (not just LA) so thinking you're never going to get an offer to move him I don't buy. If Braun had 1yr or so on his contract I'd see that playing out but not 4-5yrs while still playing at a high level.

Arcia is up for good at SS. If Scooter is kept he'll be a lefty pinch hitter and fill in at 2b occasionally. If Arcia has a day off then Villar can be shifted to SS with Perez or Scooter at 2b. Same thing if Shaw gets a day off at 3b and Perez is somewhere else in the lineup or Villar gets shifted to 3b that day then Scooter fills in at 2b (or if Shaw gets shifted to 1b on Thames off day with Villar at 3b). There's so much flexibility in this IF it's insane. Arcia/Villar, barring injury, will be playing 150+ games. Even if Arcia struggles offensively his defense is still extremely valuable and he can contribute to the team. While someone like Sogard is an upgrade defensively over Scooter (and on the bases) he's not really that close to Scooter offensively. And if someone isn't going to be playing much to begin with I'll take the better bat who also has 3yrs straight of full-time starting experience. There's 2 backup IF spots and Perez has the top spot. Why is there complaining about the final spot given Scooter would be an upgrade over what we had last year (Elmore, Rivera, Middlebrooks). This team will have options - IF they only want to keep Kirk as the backup OF then they can keep 3 backup IF as Perez, Thames, Shaw could fill in OF spots as well if someone needs a day off. That way someone like Sogard can be a defensive specialist type/base stealer and Scooter could be a pinch hit lefty bat while filling in occasionally at 2b

Scooter has earned that 2.5M with his performance and his salary, in fact, means nothing as it doesn't prevent the Brewers from accomplishing anything. If he ends up being a role player then so be it. I have no problem with him as a backup given Shaw can play both corners, Villar can play 3 IF spots and Perez can play every spot. There's plenty of versatility on this team already. If there is an injury then Scooter isn't playing 2b full-time. He'll still be splitting time with Perez. At least it gives the team an experienced backup 2b/pinch hitter (who's a lefty) and if another team has a 2b go down for an extended period of time then maybe they'll fork over a young lottery ticket.

Regarding the topic at hand, great move for same reasons that have been stated. But Susac should absolutely be the starting catcher and given the best chance to hold that spot. He has the highest ceiling of them all as well as more MLB experience. Briggs, you can cherry pick Susac's 777 OPS vs Bandy's 790 at the AAA level saying they're similar hitters but the reality is they're not. Susac has put up a strong OBP/OPS at every level while Bandy had an outlier year in 2015 in AAA, which accounts for like 70% of his AAA numbers. Bandy did have a solid AA as well. But Susac has hit year in and year out. He's good, not great. Whereas Bandy has flashed but hasn't been consistent. Susac was playing injured (I think wrist?) in the 11 games at AAA with us before being shelved for a couple weeks. Subtract those awful numbers over those 11 games due to injury and his career AAA looks like 273/360/818 in 129 games. Susac/Bandy combo would be pretty solid especially when factoring in Bandy's defense. I think if Susac's defense can hang in there he'll be the starter as he has a better hit tool.

Couldn't agree more. Brewers had 73 wins last year. The OF was a nightmare. Braun, Broxton, Santana, Kirk, Flores, Perez combined for 1,698 AB. Braun had 30% of those. 23% comes from Santana who had his highs and lows but overall he was solid and the white hot portion of Broxton. The remaining 47% comes from Kirk, Flores, Perez (vast majority of ABs in RF where he wasn't good offensively those nights) and the first 3.75 months of a bad Broxton (795 AB). HALF of our total OF ABs accounted for hot garbage basically. A healthy Braun, Broxton, Santana (based on the finishing couple months of those 2) should be a sizeable upgrade from last year. Catcher is a downgrade from Lucroy, however Susac and company should be great upgrades from Maldonado the final 2 months. Thames won't hit 40HR but he should be a better defensive player and a more well-rounded hitter than Carter. Villar is a huge upgrade at 2b over Scooter. Arcia's defense alone is very valuable and he'll progress offensively with time. Hill put up very good numbers at 3b and so did Perez. Given Shaw's defense is definitely better than both of those guys and he'll hit for more power than them both I think it's either a wash or upgrade. Splitting some time with Perez can be beneficial for both as well. I would bank on Peralta, Garza, Nelson pitching better than their overall numbers last year. Even if Guerra regresses and Davies remains similar that rotation is definitely more productive than last year, which automatically makes this team more competitive. The pen obviously takes hits with Smith/Jeffress/Thornburg gone. Smith's numbers in the first half are replaceable. Hopefully some guys step up this year and are solid. The bench should be better too. Hader is waiting in the wings to upgrade a rotation spot. Brinson is waiting in AAA. This team should have mid-70s as a realistic number with nobody being shocked if we hit upper 70s.

ARod looks like Obama

Brewers are probably shopping Nelson or Anderson as a package along with Scooter which would free up some of the rotation log jam. Nelson in particular still would have plenty of value. There's plenty of time for more moves and as the season approaches teams will look to plan B and plan C to bolster rotations. The Brewers are looking for a veteran reliever on a short term deal. The amount (and $3.5 million is not going to do it), is irrelevant. Had the Brewers not gotten stellar back end work in 2016 from Jeffress and Thornburg, they are a 95 loss team in 2016. I don't think the goal is to slide further back in 2017 and both of those guys are gone. Hader could easily slide into a late inning lefty relief role while he awaits a rotation spot to open, and maybe one or two of the guys emerge as late inning guys, but taking a shot for $5-7 million on a veteran with a past history of success is a no-brainer. That kind of guy would be gold at the deadline. Hader needs to be in the rotation by the break but I wouldn't have work the pen until a spot is open. I agree that 5-7M range is what Stearns needs to spend to land 1-2 great vets that can be flipped.

Current or Future projections is irrelevant. It doesn't change what we said. Woodruff has done just fine with control even before this year. How do you project Nottingham, as one example, to be an average regular overall when his individual ratings for each tool doesn't support it? Kirby 60 fastball, 55 slider/change, 50 control = 45 overall. Got it

And if all 3 bomb then we're left with nothing. I'm not saying trade any of them now but you can't just wait until players become whatever it is they are going to become before you consider trading them. Imagine if we would have taken that same approach with Brett Lawrie? Your own personal opinions about whether or not Marcum was worth it at the time aside, he's turned out to be an average at best player. The last time he was traded was for scraps. What if all 3 succeed? I'm not trading away that caliber of talent at an insanely young age just because I'm scared of the future. Especially when Arcia's defense is elite (or will be) at a premium position combined with the status of our org. I'd listen to every offer at all times for any player but there will come a time when you have a feel for what you think that player will become and then you make a decision. Every player is different - Dubon is older than Arcia and Diaz is 1.5yrs younger I think and Arcia is well more advanced than both of them. Arcia is just too young to even think about trading right now even if there might be a win/win offer on the table

I don't know how they come up with some of their numbers. Freddie Peralta has FB:60/SL:50/CU:50/Control:50, but an overall of 45. How do you have an overall of 45 with all grades being 50 or more? Same with Woodruff: FB:60/SL:50/CU:50/Control:45, overall 45. How they give a guy who walked 40 in 158 innings last year (and 33 in 108 innings the year before) a Control rating of 45 is beyond me. That's the same control rating for Cubs prospect Duane Underwood (#6 in the Cubs system) who had a walk rate of 4.3/9 (35 in 73 IP) last year. This is why I don't take these prospect ratings as gospel. Couldn't agree more, especially the Woodruff control comment. Brinson and Ray are both 55 overall yet Brinson is 60 power/run/field 55 hit/arm while Ray is 55 hit/power/field 60 run 50 arm. Dubon is 55 for everything but 40 power so apparently 40 power for a SS/2b overpowers above average for everything else. Nottingham is probably the best and most comical. 50 power/arm 45 hit 40 field 30 run but he's 50 overall. I'm assuming position is factored in but some ratings are head scratchers

That 20 doesn't even include Woodruff, Kirby, Williams

A link "hinting" at something proves nothing actually. There are 6 teams Braun is ok going too so why would the vast majority of the others even attempt at going after him? There's no downside to claiming and trying to work out a trade? Yeah, it's called time and resources. How many teams have the financial flexibility and/or the haul in order to make a trade? Now how many of those are the 6 teams he's fine going to? How many teams, other than the Dodgers that would make a play at Braun, are trying to reduce their debt? Injuries? Braun is coming off 3yrs straight of 506+ AB. He's been under that number ONCE his entire career and he was suspended (and injured) that year. He's performed at an AS level every year except 2014. While one can argue he's a cancer given the PED issue, one can also argue he's been a great teammate, team player and leader his entire career. "the biggest sign is the fact the team with the biggest payroll in baseball, money coming out the ears, and showing the most interest in him still wanted the Brewers to take on over 20M in a dead money contract". You mean the team that has to slash a ton of debt? What prospects were the Dodgers giving up (all reports were 2 were involved). IF the Brewers wanted Bellinger + strong prospect then is it far-fetched to believe the Dodgers also wanted 20M of Braun's contract paid for given the talent level they're giving up (Puig, Bellinger, strong prospect)? No, it's not. Ever hear of a "source" trying to create a market for a specific player (ie it'll take a team to take on 20M of Braun's contract in order to trade for him - then nobody does for the reasons above, or more, leaving them with leverage if the Brewers want to make a trade?)

I'd rather have Braun for $80 million over 4. He's still a Brewer right? It's why I don't think Braun's contract effects his trade value like the conventional wisdom says it will. He is worth his contract and there are people out there looking for a top notch player. If he was a FA he'd get a lot more. Completely agree. Players are signing contracts through his age for similar or more money (even if they're 1-2yr deals) and he's an elite offensive player still. His contract can't be a problem even if it's said publicly somewhere along the way.

I wouldn't even think about trading Arcia until you know what he, Dubon and Diaz will become

It wouldn't be useful to mention that WAR value at the position they play would it? Or does that not fit the argument you want to make? I really hate usuing WAR for relievers, but here we go anyway: Tyler Thornburg ranked #12 out of #135 relievers with his 2 WAR season. Better than 91% of relievers last year. Travis Shaw was ranked #20 out of #24 3B last year in WAR. Better than just 20% of 3B last year. Only 4 were less valuable full time. It's not useful using WAR in general. ESPN has Thornburg at the same WAR as Chapman and Jansen and they both had superior seasons to Thornburg (who also had 8 blown saves in 21 attempts). Where did Thornburg rank the past 2yrs as a reliever or do track records not matter? ESPN has Shaw ranked 17th in WAR last year. Additionally, don't Thornburg and Shaw have the same, or very similar WAR? If they do then don't they just cancel each other out on the MLB roster? Clearly, it's not that simple, just making a general point. It's like people forget that there were other pieces to the trade and just go bash Shaw. An average starting MLB 3b with good defense and power (while being a lefty) has value. Then getting a great prospect on top along with a potential good pen arm. Yes please, I'll take that all day for a reliever who had 1 great year.

There are also two other factors 1. Thornburg was being shuffled between starting and relief pitching. Last year he was allowed to stick with just being a reliever and he mentioned this helping him a lot. 2. The eye test. With him being just a relief pitcher, his velocity was regularly in the mid-90's. He has a quality change and curve. Thornburg has three plus pitches that when commanded are filthy. We've seen this out of many failed starters who have quality stuff that when allowed to just pitch out of the bullpen, they go from fringe starter to elite reliever. The Cubs just traded for one in Wade Davis. A guy with stuff, but who struggled to stick as a starter for whatever reason. When moved to the bullpen though, he thrived. Many of the best relievers have followed this path. Thornburg was strictly in the pen in 2014 posting not good numbers then started there again at the beginning of 2015 posting 9.2ip, 16h, 6er, 5.58 ERA so he was sent to AAA to go back to the rotation for 15 starts. When he came back up he posted a 2.92 ERA strictly out of the pen. Then last year he continued that similar success until the beginning of June and took off until the last 4 outings. Thornburg was performing poorly when he was strictly in the pen for over a year (was also injured during that span too). His last time in the rotation for the Brewers he dominated in 2013 so he wasn't struggling as a starter. They put him in the pen the following season full time. Additionally, a similar deal to what we took was being offered for Wade Davis - an actual elite reliever. Someone else just made this same point, if Thornburg continued this pace the first half next year you're not drastically sweetening the return for an additional 3.5 months of performance. The return might look different - maybe just prospects instead of the combo of MLB ready and prospects but the overall talent will be relatively similar. The team he's going to is also losing him for the first half of a season as well control wise. Stearns sided with history and the chances of Thornburg regressing and I don't blame him

Or he's selling high. Maybe he and the staff think Thornburg out produced his stat line last year. This. He's selling high because Thornburg's value has never been so high and he's never shown 3.5 months of complete and utter domination before. The chances of him sustaining that level moving forward aren't in his favor (of course he could end up doing though). His last 4 games he gave up runs every outing and he certainly wasn't being abused usage wise. 3.1ip, 7h, 5er. Had a 3.22 ERA the beginning of June so what if he repeats that performance next year? He's been up and down like this his entire career as a reliever. And he's a fly ball pitcher in Fenway now where a 325' fly ball to straight away LF is a double instead of an out at Miller Park. In return we get a lefty 3b who hit 16HR playing half his games in a park where straight away RF is 380 (his career HR splits are even too). If Shaw is sniffing 500 AB for us he's hitting 20+ HR easy. Red Sox fans overall really liked him, his defense and his raw power. Stearns could have received a Top 100 player for Thornburg right now along with someone else but getting what he did at this time was a great move now (Shaw) and moving forward (Dubon/Pennington) when all the prospects are up in 2-3yrs. Dubon has hit for a high BA/OPB at every level. If he was hitting even 10HR annually thus far he'd be Top 80 right now but he's overlooked as a result of that given every other tool is above average from the SS position while being 1.5+yrs young for every level. Remove the "top 100" from all discussions and simply evaluating the talent of the players shows this is a great return. I think Stearns made the right decision trading him now instead of waiting to the break.

I'm all for signing 1-2 bounce back vets or vets who have had a solid track record. For me, I want to see Barnes, Knebel, Torres, Marinez, Magnifico for sure. I'm very curious to see how Suter will do in spring out of the pen full time (don't even bounce back and forth) as I think he can contribute. Blazek has had some success as well. Parker I think will be gone at some point. Scahill, Cravy I want nothing to do with. Stearns will add some guys here for sure and that's where Scahill, Parker types can lose their 40 for an upgrade. Maybe it's wishful thinking given he's never seen AAA but I'm very intrigued by Ramsey. Excited to see how he does in spring. He's just dominated everything so far and is 27 all year next year (people have asked questions surround his injury in 2015 and it was his lower back - Marlins thought it was a minor injury but it actually kept him out all season). Two guys who were as good as anyone in relief work last year were Suter and Cravy. Suter era in relief work was 0.00 and Cravy was 0.81. Saw Thornburg make some recent comments about it being tough going back and forth between a starter and reliever, which is exactly what has been going on with Suter and Cravy. Magnifico was closing for AAA but since the Brewers are searching a closer, I don't see him in that role. I can see Marinez or Torres taking over as a closer if we don't sign someone but I think 2 FA relievers will be signed. Moves were made before the season started last year, I look for more of the same. Suter had 12.1 IP as a reliever that's such a small sample size. But given that he deserves a shot at a pen role in spring no doubt. Cravy was great last year as a reliever too in 22IP but the year before he got rocked in that role. He's inconsistent for me. I'm not saying he doesn't deserve a shot and I think he's fine as a AAAA player but he's not a guy I want in the pen over some of these other guys or FA vets we sign. I do agree that players suffer from bouncing back and forth from spot starting and being in relief. But that versatility also is a plus for them. Magnifico isn't going to close for the Brewers but having closer experience the past 2yrs in AA/AAA is a plus. We all know he dominated AA and he pitched better than his AAA numbers suggest. Between 2 outings he gave up 10 ER in 1.2 IP. That implodes an ERA. Remove those 2 outings and his line was 60.1 IP, 51H, 18ER, 30bb, 60K, 2.64 ERA. I'm banking on him being in the pen and being very solid. I don't think Torres or Marinez should close - see them as 7th inning guys. I'd have Barnes close with Knebel as setup. Barnes has more control and pounds the zone. Just thinking about all this I'm excited to see these young guys emerge as main contributors this year. Even losing our top 3 pen guys since the deadline I think the pen is still in good shape just needs some rounding out

Like you? No, actually not like me. My pulse is on logic and reasoning; analyzing something from all perspectives using whatever information is available, not delusions of grandeur. I understand that I don't have the data that Stearns (or any GM) and his team have when making any decisions nor understand how exactly they evaluate talent. I also don't speak highly of a player, while citing analytics, out of one side of my mouth then spout "analytics are wrong on Eaton" out of the other. Just think about that really quick and how insane that is - analytics are correct for whatever you believe but wrong for what you don't? I've said from day one that too many people on here use metrics such as OPS, WAR, etc as the main tools when evaluating a player instead of using them as one of many tools to evaluate, which includes your own eyes. And if your quote was in regard to my comment regarding Thornburg's trade return then have at it. Nothing I said can be refuted. Nothing I said is illogical or doesn't make sense.

I'm all for signing 1-2 bounce back vets or vets who have had a solid track record. For me, I want to see Barnes, Knebel, Torres, Marinez, Magnifico for sure. I'm very curious to see how Suter will do in spring out of the pen full time (don't even bounce back and forth) as I think he can contribute. Blazek has had some success as well. Parker I think will be gone at some point. Scahill, Cravy I want nothing to do with. Stearns will add some guys here for sure and that's where Scahill, Parker types can lose their 40 for an upgrade. Maybe it's wishful thinking given he's never seen AAA but I'm very intrigued by Ramsey. Excited to see how he does in spring. He's just dominated everything so far and is 27 all year next year (people have asked questions surround his injury in 2015 and it was his lower back - Marlins thought it was a minor injury but it actually kept him out all season).

I think present day it's easy to question some of the 40 man moves (including rule 5 protection) but it makes sense in terms of how he's used the 40 going back to when he started as GM in combination with Stearns and his team not viewing certain prospects in the same light as people on here. anybody would add the Brinson, Hader, Phillips, Cordell, Williams of the world to the 40 to protect them but not everyone would add Diaz, Wang, Wren or others - those are two different classes of players and the MLB team will still need help as the season goes on, which is why some of those guys are on it still. there's so much time before spring training and plenty of other moves will be made that when that time comes around it'll all work itself out and make sense. having a tad bit of flexibility on the 40 is beneficial especially if he's planning to move someone and get MLB players in return.

Kirk fills an immediate need as a backup OF (lefty with some pop who can play all 3 spots). While I don't like him and Scahill (potentially couple others) on the 40 I understand why they're on it. I highly doubt Stearns 100% knew Diaz would be selected. Of the 12 "cream of the crop" for this year only 2 were selected and Diaz wasn't even listed on that. He's 22 next year and has never seen anything higher than A. The chances of Stearns truly believing he was 100% gone is slim. No doubt they knew he had a chance of being selected just like with Wang and Wren. Additionally, him being the top selection has nothing to do with him being the "best" prospect or highly thought of across the board. The Padres clearly wanted him and rated him highly. For all we know they're the only team that rated him highly enough to be selected over some of the other more advanced talent. The Padres can also stash him at the back of the pen while mixing in DL stints because they're terrible. They're probably wanting to build their lower levels with strong arms without having to trade anyone and the Rule 5 is the avenue for doing such a thing.