beekay414
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Everything posted by beekay414
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You'd have a point if I was basing my analysis off solely his year with the Brewers. I'm not. I'm basing it off his 1500+ PAs prior to the PCL and his 422 PA in the bigs. What's more likely, that he's the PCL version or that he's what he is the other 2000+ ABs? All I'm saying is that we should heed caution to our expectations on his power. That's all. He needs to cut down on his K's at the big league level and get back to being the OBP guy he was prior to the PCL. He can't sustain being a 23% K rate guy.
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I’d probably wait to see this season before making any sort of statements like this. Yeah, no. I'm using data available to everyone to make a realistic prediction. There's nothing wrong with heeding caution on a prospect. Outside of the PCL, Urias has shown no power. That's a fact. If he's going to have any value, he needs to cut down the K's and be the OBP machine he was AA and down. He needs to be in that 12-15% K rate, not 22-25%.
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Does the power need to come? He could still have great value even if no power comes. Wong is a great defender with a career 333 obp and 717 ops. He lacks power but has great value. Arcia has a career 295 obp and 660 ops. Urias can have value if he can have a low strikeout percentage, get on base and play great defense. Andrelton Simmons Just got $10.5 mil from the twins to have a 91 career ops+ But have great defense. Obviously prospects vs established players. But the reasoning is the same, don’t need “big bats” at every position to have value. No but Urias also isn't a GG caliber defender like Wong and Simmons. He's fine on defense but not enough to overcome a lackluster bat. He needs to cut down on the K's if he's every going to be an OBP machine like he was in the minors. I'm fine with giving him time, I'm just saying that we shouldn't expect any type of power to come and, if Urias is to have any type of long term value, it's going to be at SS, not 3B. Just heeding caution.
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1. Hedbert Perez | OF 2. Antoine Kelly | LHP 3. Mario Feliciano | C 4. Ethan Small | LHP 5. Garrett Mitchell | OF 6. Aaron Ashby | LHP 7. Eduardo Garcia | SS 8. Brice Turang | 2B/SS 9. Tristen Lutz | OF 10. Freddy Zamora | SS 11. Jackson Chourio | SS 12. Luis Medina | OF 13. Max Lazar | RHP 14. Jesus Parra | 3B/OF 15. Jeferson Quero | C 16. Carlos Rodriguez | OF 17. Zavier Warren | C 18. Hayden Cantrelle | SS 19. Je'Von Ward | OF 20. Dylan File | RHP 21. Payton Henry | C 22. Joe Gray Jr | OF 23. David Hamilton | SS 24. Micah Bello | OF 25. Joey Wiemer | OF -
The problem with Urias and his bat is that it's likely fool's gold. He didn't hit for any type of power until the PCL and the PCL is a notorious hitter's league. Prior to the PCL, his MiLB ISO numbers align more to what he's done in the bigs these last 2 years. The issue is he is K'ing more at the big league level. Don't expect the power to come, folks. He's better off serving as a UTIL guy than someone you count on as an every day bat. Stearns doesn't make a ton of trade mistakes but the Grisham-Davies for Urias-Lauer deal looks terrible right now. Love DS but that one hurts.
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If you’re referring to Urias he had 164 minor league “extra base hits”. Turang
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It's funny that anyone thinks someone with 36 career minor league extra base hits is the heir apparent to anything.
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2020 Draft Pick Discussion, Rounds 1-5
beekay414 replied to Eye Black's topic in MLB Draft & International Signings
No? It's factual. Turang is a light hitter. It's shown by his power numbers. He has a very low career ISO at all levels. 632 at bats and 36 career XBH which is good for a .081 ISO, which by FanGraphs definition is "awful". There's nothing harsh about calling Turang a light hitter. https://library.fangraphs.com/offense/iso/ -
2020 Draft Pick Discussion, Rounds 1-5
beekay414 replied to Eye Black's topic in MLB Draft & International Signings
I like the idea with Mitchell but I have my doubts about our ability to develop his swing. It's a ground ball, gap swing and we haven't shown we can make the necessary adjustments on those types of hitter to add power (prime example: Brice Turang - who is still far too much of a light hitter for my liking). He's toolsy as hell and he'll be an every day center fielder for sure. I know he said UCLA coaches wanted him to be a contact guy due to his speed so I'll hold out some hope for the power to come. He's going to be an XBH machine due to his speed and ability to make contact so there's a lot to like even without the power. Also, we ran that clock all the way down before putting in the card for Mitchell, which tells me we really wanted PCA, who I would've killed for just for his generational CF defensive ability. I'll hold out a ton of hope for Mitchell due to the tools and his own defensive ability but I don't expect the power to develop at all. We haven't shown we can develop hitters in recent memory. And, no, Keston Hiura doesn't count. That kid was hitting no matter where he was drafted. -
2020 MLB Draft Thread (Pre-Draft Discussion)
beekay414 replied to Eye Black's topic in MLB Draft & International Signings
He's not getting a lot of 1st round helium but Casey Martin is someone that I think fits how we draft. While he most likely ends up in CF, he has a 45 hit tool and + grades in power and overall athleticism (75 FV grade on his speed), which is exactly the type of profile we're prone to taking. Some question the hit tool due to how high his K rate is in college but I think you can teach that out of him. I don't see it as a contact issue, I see it as an approach issue. The kid gets homer happy while facing the best competition in college baseball. I want no part of Dillon Dingler, though, as he seems to be projected to us more and more. He gets Sean Murphy comparisons but I don't see it. You can't be Sean Murphy if you have durability questions about sticking behind the plate. His junior season was a small sample size that I put very limited stock in. Martin's my guy. The raw tools are tremendous. I know we've had issues developing these types but I have my faith. -
Might as well trade Yelich while we’re at it Yes, because cashing in on a reliever is the same as trading a MVP.
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If we are trading Hader, there's no reason to be adamant about getting MLB ready players in return. Reason being is...if we're trading Hader, we're not competing in 2020 thus there's no reason to focus on MLB ready talent. Simply put, you get the best return you can for him and work everything else out later.
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Sign Castro to be the LHB in a platoon with Pina and bring Freitas up as the 3rd C/26th man.
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If Santana for Salazar/Clevinger were actually on the table, it'd be done by now. That swap is 100% speculation.
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No problem buddy. Santana still on the outs? If so, would he be in the Archer deal or would there still be a chance to deal him for help elsewhere?
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25 other teams could say the same thing though. And that's the beauty of prospects...
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Je'Von Ward, Mario Feliciano, Carlos Rodriguez, Jean Carmona, KJ Harrison, Brendan Murphy, Carlos Herrera, Caden Lemons, Larry Ernesto, Chad McClanahan. All guys who could make massive jumps long term. Plenty of intriguing talent down on the farm.
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Farm systems can be replenished. We completely revamped ours in a 2.5 year period. Purging the MLB roster is easier than acquiring cost controlled talent like Archer. If we are trading assets we will be back to where we were in 2015. Cain can't be traded btw. The plan is not to acquire some good players then churn them down the road. The plan is to win big in the next two years. Otherwise they would just let the current young guys develop. Obvious post is obvious. We are taking our shot and Archer's deal still gives us financial flexibility so we're not strapped when it comes to acquiring free agents. Archer gives us a better shot at going after it than Burnes does. Both now and going forward. However, you missed my point. You take your shot and if it doesn't work, you can easily purge your MLB roster to replenish. That's the point.
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Farm systems can be replenished. We completely revamped ours in a 2.5 year period. Purging the MLB roster is easier than acquiring cost controlled talent like Archer.
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Wholeheartedly agree. Just think the microscope he's under here is a bit much. Especially considering his cost. Less than $9 Million a year and prospects. That, to me, is too good to pass up. I like Burnes as much as anyone here but I don't view him as someone you have off limits for someone like Archer. Is our current rotation lead by Archer a WS team with the current roster in Milwaukee? Because that's the only reason to pay Tampas asking price. How do you figure that?
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Wholeheartedly agree. Just think the microscope he's under here is a bit much. Especially considering his cost. Less than $9 Million a year and prospects. That, to me, is too good to pass up. I like Burnes as much as anyone here but I don't view him as someone you have off limits for someone like Archer.
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deGrom was 25th in the league in hard contact rate so it's not like he doesn't get hit hard. Gave up a higher HR/9 and had a lower BABIP so yes, he got luckier than Archer. While also pitching in the NL. I also didn't say that Archer was unlucky, I said deGrom got luckier. It shows in the BABIP and the ERA/FIP/xFIP difference. If deGrom's an ace, so is Archer. Note - Based on standards set, there's not many aces in the league. In BF's eyes, an ace is a flawless pitcher. I mean, Archer's getting ripped for hard contact which is his only flaw. That's crazy to me. He doesn't give up the long ball any more than any other TOR starter (seriously, look at the HR/FB rate list or the HR/9 list, he's grouped around guys like deGrom, Kershaw, Arrieta, Darvish, Verlander, Greinke, CarMart, Lester, Cole, Sale). It's the nature of the beast with the juiced baseballs. Everyone gives up HRs except elite ground ball pitchers.
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BTW, Archer vs the NL for his career... 116 IP, 2.79 ERA, 1.07 WHIP, 132 K, 33 BB, 10.2 K/9, 10 HRA
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I think the term ace gets thrown around far too often. By the measure that some of you consider an ace, there's like 5 of them in all of baseball. Honestly, I'm not sure how someone can say Archer isn't an ace while saying that deGrom is. Archer: 201 IP, 11.15 K/9, 2.69 BB/9, 1.21 HR/9, .325 BABIP, 14.1% HR/FB, 4.07 ERA, 3.40 FIP, 3.35 xFIP, 3.44 SIERA, 4.6 fWAR, 1.17 GB/FB rate, 22.0% LD rate, 42.0% GB rate, 36.0% FB rate, 13.2/47.4/39.4 SOFT/MED/HARD rates deGrom: 201 IP, 10.68 K/9, 2.64 BB/9, 1.25 HR/9, .305 BABIP, 16.1% HR/FB, 3.53 ERA, 3.50 FIP, 3.23 xFIP, 3.44 SIERA, 4.4 fWAR, 1.34 GB/FB rate, 21.1% LD rate, 45.3% GB rate, 33.7% FB rate, 21.3/46.9/31.9 SOFT/MED/HARD rates Both age 29 seasons (deGrom turns 30 first) in 2018. So deGrom's an ace because he got luckier? I'm just saying, the term ace is being used too loosely.
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1. Rosenthal said that based on the Rays seeing him as a controllable ace. 2. I'm almost 100% positive I said his ceiling was a possible 2. 3. That slider grade you posted is a bit premature. He's flashed it but it can't be considered above average without consistency. 4. He has no true out pitch. He's going to have to rely on command almost exclusively. If the slider hits consistently, then we'll talk.
