A crude look at this tells us that isn't the case. Greinke WAR 2008: 4.9 2009: 9.3 2010: 5.1 2011: 3.9 (Would have been right around 5 again without the basketball injury) Total: 23.2 Weaver WAR 2008: 3.4 2009: 3.8 2010: 5.8 2011: 5.6 Total: 18.6 Verlander WAR 2008: 3.4 2009: 8.3 2010: 6.4 2011: 7.0 Total: 25.1 Hernandez WAR 2008: 3.7 2009: 6.8 2010: 6.2 2011: 5.5 Total: 22.2 And just for kicks and giggles, here are two more set to reach free agency with Greinke Cole Hamels WAR 2008: 4.4 2009: 3.6 2010: 3.7 2011: 4.9 Total: 16.6 Matt Cain WAR 2008: 3.7 2009: 3.3 2010: 3.7 2011: 5.2 Total: 15.9 I definitely wouldn't say Greinke is clearly better, but he definitely belongs in the conversation. Also, I know you said without 2009, but that's hard to just say. It happened, and none of these pitchers put up a season as good as that one (including Verlander, who won the MVP last year). As far as Hamels and Cain, it's pretty clear that Greinke has been better than them. It's likely that Greinke would be considered the top free agent pitcher next off-season, and that means he'd break 100, even 110 mil on the open market in all likelihood. If I were him, I'd ask for more than Weaver's $85 million, both because he's been better the last 4 years, and more because he's closer to free agency than Weaver was.