Greenleaf1

I don't have the slightest idea how to guess who will be in the top 100, since I definitely don't have much of an idea of other teams' systems unless they were trade partners with the Brewers over the last year. Based on previous rankings, performance in 2016, and just general talent/potential levels, I would think Brinson/Hader/Ray/Ortiz/Bickford are all absolute locks for the list. Beyond that, I would think Diaz creeps in there, with potential to get up really high on the list if he can continue to rake at A+ next year. I think it would be hard for Woodruff to go from our midseason 26th prospect to making the overall top 100. He seems very impressive to me, but I just get the sense that he isn't as loved outside of Milwaukee. I'd be happy to be proven wrong. I'm guessing Clark stays on the list, Phillips seems like he'd be on the cusp of the list, he didn't really do that much to help or hurt his cause this year (traded average for power, not sure which is more valued for lists like this). Diplan needs more than 1/2 a great season to make this list I would think. Brewers top 10 probably looking something like: 1. Brinson 2. Hader 3. Ray 4. Ortiz 5. Bickford 6. Diaz 7. Clark 8. Phillips 9. Woodruff 10. Diplan If we still had 8 on the top 100 list next year that'd be amazing but I'd be a little surprised, I'm guessing we're at 6 or 7.

This does a pretty good job summing it up. Thanks! Bummer that there's not really going to be anything to follow.

I think Braun wants to do what is best for the Brewers within reason at this point. He knows the Dodgers are a main target, in this recent article he seemed to show interest in being traded there, so I wouldn't worry about them being put on his no-trade list. I think if the Dodgers still want him, he'll probably be traded before the calendar year is over. If the Dodgers decide to go elsewhere, I think there's a very good chance Braun stays a Brewer for 2017. But the Dodgers are too good of a match and have the talent that it would take to get him. Really wouldn't be surprised if Braun is a Dodger before Thanksgiving.

I would argue that DS probably doesn't want only a top pitching prospect for Braun. He's a proven elite player still performing at a top level, his contract is reasonable for his talent level for a team like the Dodgers than can afford it, and we're willing to eat money in the deal. DS wants Puig, a top pitching prospect, and another prospect. There's no way DS is trading away Braun for one prospect. There's clearly a huge divide on these forums about the value that a player like Braun has, and I'm sure his real value is somewhere in the middle, but I wouldn't be satisfied trading Braun unless a real impact prospect (Brinson/Ortiz level) is included in the deal. Unlike with Lucroy, he is locked up to a long, reasonable contract that will be very affordable during our rebuild, and I'd be perfectly fine keeping him and letting him lead this rebuild from the field like he has been doing this past year.

I really don't see Puig as the centerpiece of that deal. The Dodgers are motivated to move him, and Stearns knows that, and McCarthy takes care of any salary issues for Braun. Add the fact that Puig's years of control barely cover any competing years for us, and Stearns will definitely want something of great value in order to justify trading Braun. They have consistently reiterated that they do not need to shed salary with Braun. They want top quality prospects in return. The article mentioned that the Brewers wanted De Leon. No team ever wants to get rid of top pitching prospects, but the Dodgers would be dealing from a position of strength there. Next year they already have Kershaw/Kazmir/Ryu/Urias/Maeda/Stripling/Wood as options for the rotation, even after trading McCarthy. Had my eyes on De Leon and Brinson all year in hopes that we'd be getting them back in exchange for Braun and Lucroy. One of those came true already, really hoping DS can figure out this one too.

Puig and McCarthy both seem like strong bounceback candidates. Assuming the prospects were of pretty decent quality (someone of Brinson/Ortiz quality and someone of Cordell quality), I would've LOVED this deal. Get prospects for Braun, money off the books, and if Puig bounces back we either keep him or trade him for more prospects, same with McCarthy. Then trade Guerra at what will likely be his maximum value and trade Garza for anything. Agreed with MKE81 that with the deal so close to completion, I don't see why they couldn't make it work soon after the end of the season.

I really can't imagine that in a market as dry for starting pitching as this offseason is that Stearns won't trade away at least one of our 6-man rotation right now, maybe more. In the meantime, I don't see who else is ready from AAA to step into the rotation. Suter should get a good look in Spring Training for the rotation.

I'm familiar with the concept of instructional leagues, but what is the actual purpose of these leagues? Is it basically to try stuff out and get better coaching than you would in the minors? I'm assuming results don't really matter?

The only reason I'd say you start Susac at AAA is if we want to keep Maldonado. Susac is the only one of the 3 with options left, which works against him. I'm not saying he has to stay down for long, but I don't think the Brewers will start the year with 3 catchers unless all 3 really do well in Spring Training.

Susac is a legimitate catching prospect who's worth a long look next year. Pina's year at AAA this year was too good to ignore, and he deserves a long look as well. Maldonado would be ideal to keep as a backup in the event that only one (or neither) of Susac/Pina don't work out. I think all things being equal in spring training, Pina/Maldonado start the year and Pina gets a chance to prove himself. If he can't do it, then if Susac is doing well at AAA he'll get a shot too. Even if all this weren't true, and we were stuck with just Maldy next year, it doesn't matter. Either one of our catching prospects will develop over the next couple years, or we'll fill the void via trade or free agency when we're back to competing. We have plenty of other areas of strength in our minor league system, and at least a few interesting guys to look at next year at catcher. Would having Mejia be nice? Of course, but I'd much rather have Brinson/Ortiz right now, and you can't have everything.

On the list of things to do during a rebuild, I don't think paying tons of money and giving up a young prospect or two in order to acquire an aging veteran whose contract doesn't even extend to when we'd want to compete is on there. Ditto what others have said, he seems like a huge [expletive deleted by moderator]. Would much rather see Pina/Susac get a shot.

I think most of us saw this in Thornburg back in 2014 when he was incredible for a month before injuring himself, and now that he's staying healthy he's living up to the original potential. I have no doubt that if Thornburg can stay healthy he will be a great closer next year. I think his greatest value to us is to trade him though, given that teams are drastically overpaying for bullpen help these days and a rebuilding team doesn't really need a closer. By the time we're ready to compete again, he'll be earning a solid chunk of money in arbitration (assuming he keeps performing at the level we'd want him to perform at), and soon after we might lose him to free agency anyways. His injury past is a little too risky to offer a long term extension to try to keep his cost down, so I vote we trade him. I think if he pitches this well (or close) to the trade deadline next year, he'll be at his highest trade value. Get him another 20 or so saves under his belt and I'd say we're looking at a pretty strong return: some team's #1 or #2 prospect plus another solid prospect and another throw in wouldn't seem out of the realm of possibility to me if he has another half season like this season. If he regresses a little, then maybe take away the 3rd prospect in the deal but I still think he could net a nice return.

There's such a high degree of luck to whether or not players work out that it's hard to judge Stearns based on 1 year. Guerra/Villar/Broxton all seem like acquisitions where Stearns was able to see something that others couldn't and get it for cheap. These moves are a good sign that Stearns knows what he's looking for in the young players he's acquiring. Through half a season, our 2016 draft looks like we got a lot of solid picks. Ray and Erceg are the stars, but Corbin Burnes and Ronnie Gideon are interesting too. Stearns has had the benefit of having an interesting team to start a rebuild with. This year he sort of lucked into a situation where all of our best trade pieces were performing at top levels despite the team's results doing so poorly, so he has had a LOT of premium talent to trade away for prospects. However, his ability to get Boston to overpay for Aaron Hill, San Francisco to overpay for Will Smith, Pittsburgh to overpay for Jason Rogers shows that he knows what he's doing in that department as well. I really don't see how Brewers fans could be anything but thrilled with Stearns so far. Apart from maybe signing a top international free agent, he's used just about every avenue within his means to improve our team at the major league level on down to rookie ball, and his emphasis on acquiring talent at all levels sets us up nicely to potentially compete for the long run, not just a 2-3 year window. And still after all the dumping of the last 2 years, we've still got Braun, Thornburg, Guerra, Carter, Torres, and even Gennett to think about trading and enhance our system even more. Several of those are Stearns acquisitions, so he's helping himself by adding players that can either help the team now and into the future or be traded for more prospects. Stearns gets a 10/10 from me for 2016. Hoping he can keep it up in 2017.

I think catcher will just not be our position of strength the way it has been with Lucroy for the past 5 years when we go back to competing. It's more likely at this point that outfield and 2B/SS provide us with our all stars, and that whoever we have behind the plate is more of an average to slightly above average player (which not everyone can be an all star). Susac/Pina both have the potential to stick there in that role. Should find out if either one can do it next season.

When we got Derby, they basically said he's very likely to be a bullpen arm and not a starter, but they were going to try him at starter first. Moving to the bullpen may not work for him, and will obviously limit his prospect value, but I wouldn't write him off just yet either. Let's see how his inevitable move to the bullpen goes.

And Sean Nolin Zach Duke a few years ago. Cesar Jimenez last year on waivers midseason then signed him again this offseason. I'd be surprised if they didn't try the same strategy next year.

The nice part about a lot of our "sell high" players (Villar, Guerra, Thornburg) this offseason is that we don't have to trade any of them. This will almost certainly bring their value higher if we do wish to trade them because teams that want them have no leverage. We can just as easily hold onto players like this at this point and deal them at a later date. Villar is an impact player, if we aren't getting someone who doesn't have the potential to be even better, I don't see the point in moving him.

Banda is projected as a #4 starter and Haniger is projected as probably a 4th outfielder. Also AZ's farm system is pretty wrecked right now, Banda probably wouldn't even be in our top 10. Davies is probably performing right now at Banda's projected ceiling and certainly could get better (so could Banda, to be fair). We got lucky to get Davies for Parra, but the DBacks got equally lucky to get 2 real prospects out of the two young A-ballers we traded them, so both teams should just be thanking their lucky stars that trading Gerardo Parra got them anything of value at all. Glad to see them both doing well, though.

My guess is we load up on cheap free agent lefties like we do every year. Suter won't be anywhere near the only lefty competing in ST for a spot in the BP, but I agree that he stands a good chance of staying there. I think he's earned a chance in the rotation though, at least 2-3 starts at some point to show his stuff. Unless our minor league pitching dramatically improves next year and 3 or 4 guys are suddenly ready to come up I think Suter's going to get a chance to start some games next year.

I'm not 100% sold on an extension for Villar this offseason, although I am leaning toward it being a good idea. If he had another year anything like this one I'd think it would be a near certainty that we should try to extend him. Another thing to consider (should probably be its own thread) is the sheer amount of players entering arbitration next year. I will be curious to see what we do in all these situations: Wily Peralta Chris Carter Martin Maldonado Carlos Torres Chase Anderson Scooter Gennett Kirk Nieuwenhuis Tyler Thornburg Nelson/Perez/Villar/Blazek/Susac start the year after that (assuming they're all at the big league level). This team is going to start getting more expensive regardless, it's important to know who we want to be there in the future.

Ben Zobrist has been a very good player for years. Being a super utility player won't stop Perez from being a core part of this team, it only enhances his value to us. I'd much rather that we keep him moving around for now rather than try to settle him in as Gennett's replacement or something.

Does anybody know of a good way to estimate what a contract extension would look like for our young players right now? The only player right now that makes any kind of sense to consider an extension for currently would be Jonathan Villar. After next year he'll be eligible for arbitration, and I think that either before or after next season are good times to consider signing him to a decent length contract. Segura's rejected extension was supposedly for 7 years, $40M with an option for an 8th year back in the spring of 2014. At the time he had a little under a year and a half of service time, so that deal would've covered his first 2 years of FA, plus an option on his 3rd. Now that we're 3 years into the future, and given the fact that Segura rejected that contract, we have to assume any similar deal to Villar would be worth a bit more. Would it be reasonable to assume a 6 year deal worth $55M with a $13M option on a 7th year? He's one year closer to free agency than Segura was, so we'll cover the same amount of free agent years. So a deal like this might look like $4.5M/$6.5M/$8.5M/$10.5M/$12M/$13M, and would do what these early deals often do: Provide Villar with financial security and provide the Brewers with a team-friendly contract should Villar continue to produce at the expected level. I think back to the deals we made for Gomez and Lucroy, and how both paid off extremely well for us, but both of those deals were signed just before those players really broke out. Gomez signed 3 years/$21M in 2014, Lucroy signed 5 years/$11M in 2012. Villar had his breakout year this year and so we're going to have to expect to pay him more. It's possible I'm overestimating how much he's worth and how much the Brewers would pay, but FanGraphs has him at nearly 3.0 WAR this year which I think means they'd say he's worth way more than even the most expensive years of this contract would pay him if he kept up that level of production or even came close to it. I think this would be a good reason now as well because as the rebuild continues, money is only going to get thinner and thinner and we're likely to only be able to max out our payroll at around $110-120M when all is said and done. Locking up Villar to an average salary of <$10M/year would leave a lot more room for other player salaries than if he has a couple more great years and then we try to sign him. I'm aware that there are risks aplenty here. Do we really want to throw our first big contract of the rebuild at a guy who has made mistakes aplenty on the bases and in the field? If he regresses tremendously, this money could've gone to much better places and could stymie the rebuild before it ever gets going. This begs the question: how did other teams handle this? When did they start locking up their young talent, and who were the types of players they locked up first? Is there anybody else you guys think we should be considering extending? Right now nobody else makes sense to me because they either haven't had enough time to prove their consistency or they have so much cheap service time left that there's no need to start paying them more just yet (Broxton, Arcia, Davies, Guerra come to mind). I'd also love to see Thornburg stay a Brewer but rebuilding teams don't need great closers and his value to us seems higher on the trade market than in our bullpen. Sorry for the long post, I tend to ramble, but was curious if anybody else was thinking about what happens when our young, cheap, controllable players start becoming less young, less cheap, and less controllable and how we handle that transition.

Nelson has an ERA of 7.83 in his last 7 starts. If he continues to do that poorly and it carries over into next year, he will be optioned just like Peralta/Jungmann were. I agree that the likelihood of Suter getting a spot is not high, but Nelson could certainly be optioned. If Peralta can be, Nelson certainly can be. Any chance that other teams could have interest in Suter similar to Jason Rogers?

Like Garza or not, he doesn't factor into the rebuild beyond 2018 at the very latest. If he's good enough to regain some value in our rotation like he has lately, he'll command too much money in free agency and I don't think the Brewers would want him at that point anyways even if they wanted to spend the money. His value to us is if he can regain some value for a trade, just like the rest of our aging veterans. There's no doubt that he has regained a lot of value over the last 6 weeks or so. His ERA this year is actually not looking that bad anymore, and there's definitely going to be an offseason market for a starting pitcher with a league average ERA at a relatively low cost (if we eat some money). The question will be if any team offers enough.

I can't even imagine a situation where we could be blown away enough to trade Arcia. Now is the time in the rebuild where we want to start locking in players for the future. Arcia's up and performing well at a very tough position to fill with quality players, and the fact that we have Villar to play somewhere else for now, or step in at SS if Arcia gets injured is too great a gift to give up. If in a year or two, we have another great SS prospect coming up and we have a great need elsewhere and we're about ready to compete, I could see us being motivated enough to accept a (still overwhelming) offer for Arcia, but now is not the time to do that.